Daniel L. Florness
Analyst · William Blair
Thank you, Will, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us as well on our call. I'm going to touch on a handful of things in the press release just to highlight a few things that we believe are noteworthy. Let's start with the sequential trends on Page 3. If you look at the 3 years we have displayed there, it really is a story of 3 different years. If I look at 2010, from January to October, we were soundly beating the historical pattern about 60% to 70% of the time. February was what I'd call a setback month. And at June, our cumulative number was in line with history. We were beating it most of the time, we had a big setback month, but we were trending with history. 2011 was a little bit different story. From January to October, we actually we're beating, soundly beating the pattern a little bit less, about 50% or 60% of the time, but we didn't have any big setback months. And at the midpoint of the year, we were about 370 basis points ahead of what history says we should be building. And so we come into the year, we'd estimated we'd grow around 19 based on history. We ended up growing closer to 22 based on just having better momentum and better trends throughout the year and no big setback months. When I look at 2012, March was -- in the January to June time frame that we have history on, March was a huge beat. And April and June were essentially in line with our historical patterns. February and May were our setback months. And because of those 2 months, we're sitting there about 330 basis points behind our history. Those are just some of the things I guess to note when we look at the sequential patterns of our business. When I look at the second half of the year, the -- first some positives, then negatives. Positive, I think we have some nice built-up momentum with our vending machines that have been signed and are going to be installed, the ones that have been installed in the last 6 months, which are significant. And the headwind is the uncertainty about the economy and some of the things going on with our currency rates. One of the things we did see a change quite abruptly in the spring, and I mentioned it on Page 4 of the release, is on our production fastener side or on our fasteners in general. In the first quarter, that business was growing about 15.5%. In the second quarter, it dropped to just double-digits in April. It dropped down to about 6% in May and rebounded a bit to about 9% in June. But definitely, it has taken a step back. If you look at non-fastener areas, areas where most of our growth drivers are centered on, we're seeing, still, very strong results, still in the close to 20% neighborhood. The ISM index, I touched on that in the release as well, dropped just below 50 here in June. I believe that's the first reading below 50 since August of 2009, which was quite a long stretch. Growth drivers, as Will mentioned, continuing to make nice progress on those. One thing that I think is really noteworthy when you look at the vending stats is while we were seeing softening trends as we went through the second quarter, our vending numbers, the growth of our vending customers actually improved from Q1, where we grew at 33.9% with that subset of customers to Q2, where we grew at 34.3%. Which from a directional standpoint, I think that's a huge accomplishment, because these are larger customers where a lot of these vending machines are going and we're really demonstrating our ability to take market share at a faster pace in that subset of customers. Profit drivers on Page 8, a few things that I thought were noteworthy, we're often guilty a bit of beating ourselves up internally and externally a bit when some things aren't working as we think they could. A god example of that is our margin in the first quarter. We do this because we believe we fix stuff today, we don't just analyze and talk about it or, said another way, rationalize it. However, if I take a longer-term look at our business and look at first quarter of 2007, so the last quarter before we started the pathway to profit in the second quarter of 2012, our average store has gone from 72,000 a month to 89,000 per month. Our gross margin has increased from 51% to 51.6%, and our operating costs have improved through our pathway to profit and through our initiatives to improve our relative performance in each category or, said a much simpler way, we've increased the size of Fastenal by about 65% and we've doubled our profits. These are great long-term improvements, and we are all about long-term improvements. The other thing that I think is worthwhile to note, we probably are a little anal with some of our statistics we put in our press release. One of them is the table that shows our headcount numbers and our store numbers, et cetera, as we tried to demonstrate and to communicate what we're seeing on the pathway to profit. If you look at the FTE headcount growth in that table on Page 10, you would notice that since the first quarter of 2007, we've added about 3,700 FTEs to the business or an increase of about 38%. Of this, about 3,200 or about 87% of our increase are individuals that have direct contact with our customers, either in the store or a non-store selling role. We added another 235 people or about 6% into our distribution centers to support that 65% increase in sales. We added another 229 or about another 6% into our manufacturing centers, and about 40% of this came from our Holo-Krome acquisition back in 2009. And because of the efficiencies we've gained in our business in the support areas, we've added 27 FTEs or less than 1% of our headcount growth since the first quarter of 2007, have been in a role that doesn't directly relate to selling, moving product or manufacturing product that we sell. And I think that's a strong tribute to the individuals internally as well as the wisdom and the possibilities of our pathway to profit. And speaking of Holo-Krome, I thought I'd mention quickly that I had the opportunity here several months ago to go out, and one of our regional VPs, whose office are at [ph] -- out of Ohio, was having a district managers' meet there to get a view of the facility as well as have their district meeting, and I went out to speak to the group. One comment I'd make is, we've moved into a new manufacturing facility about several years ago. It was my first chance to see it. Very impressive facility, very impressive people I met that work in that facility, and my compliments to Tim and his team out there. Also, as noted in the table, we hit 22.2% operating margin. I don't know if that -- I think that's our best quarter we've ever had from an operating margin percent perspective. I'm sure if I'm wrong, somebody will call me later today and inform me, but very impressive. We had about an 80 basis point improvement from 2011, not the 100 basis points that we strive for, but I think very strong given that we moved our operating expenses below 30%. And that's a first as well, I believe, as Will mentioned earlier in the call. The gross margin on Page 10, as I mentioned, we kind of beat ourselves up on that a little bit, and that was our award in the first quarter. We aren't done yet, but I'm pleased with the progress we've seen in the second quarter. I'm also pleased, in general, when I look at the 22% pretax, the improvement in gross margin, the improvement in our business that we have experienced not only in the last year, but in the last 5, to personally be associated with an organization of this caliber. As mentioned in prior quarters, our exclusive brands continue to inch upward. Today, they are about 9.5% of our sales. A good piece of that is being driven by our vending solution. Operating and administrative expenses, we talk about the great thing we did with expense control. I think the story is often understated, because under the surface in those expenses, there are some things that are growing quite dramatically, but I see them as high-quality items of growth. 401(k) profit sharing contribution. We share a piece of our profits with our employees that participate either in our retirement programs throughout the company. Our profit-sharing contribution in the quarter grew 74% from the number a year ago. In fact, if you look at our profit sharing contribution calc for the second quarter, we're about 70% of our annual number of just 2 years ago in 2010. Also, in our occupancy, our vending machine cost more than doubled from a year ago because of the success we've seen with vending. Those are 2 items that are outgrowing the company, high-quality items, I might add. Finally, on the working capital side, all I can say is we had a nice improvement, and I credit that to our team in the field. They're doing a job of managing their working capital needs, both accounts receivable and inventory, which produced a very strong cash flow again as we go through the first 6 months of the year. Our expectation when we started pathway to profit was operational working capital -- excuse me, operational cash flow at 89% of earnings. I believe that range has really moved to 85% to 95%. Year-to-date, we're at about 90%. Net CapEx, we've really set our target number of that, it's about 25% of earnings. Year-to-date, we're at about 23%, which puts our free cash flow at about 66%, 67% of earnings. Not only a strong number given our range of estimating about 60% to 65%, but a very strong number when you consider the first half of the year is where we need the most working capital growth because of the seasonality in our business. I think that bodes well for our cash flow capabilities in the second half of the year. With that, I would turn it over to questions. As we have said -- asked in the past, please limit yourself to one question so we can get through the entire group of folks that get queued up. Thank you.