Earnings Labs

Franklin Covey Co. (FC)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 10, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2016 Franklin Covey earnings conference call. My name is Ann and I will be your operator for today’s call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Derek Hatch, Corporate Controller. Please go ahead.

Derek Hatch

Analyst

Thank you, Ann. Good afternoon, everyone and on behalf of the company, I would like to welcome you to our fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 earnings call this afternoon. Before we get started, I’d like to remind everyone that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s current expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, the ability of the company to stabilize and grow revenues, the ability of the company to hire productive sales professionals, general economic conditions, competition in the company’s targeted marketplace, market acceptance of products and services and marketing strategies, changes in the company’s market share, changes in the size of the overall market for the company’s products, changes in training and spending policy of the company’s clients and other factors identified and discussed in the company’s most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many of these conditions are beyond our control or influence, any one of which may cause future results to differ materially from the company’s current expectations and there can be no assurance that the company’s actual future performance will meet management’s expectations. These forward-looking statements are based upon management’s current expectations and we undertake no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of today’s presentation except as required by law. With that out of the way, I would like to turn the time over to Mr. Bob Whitman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Bob?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate each of you joining us. We're happy to have the chance to talk today and I’d like to briefly discuss just four things. First, I’ll talk about the continued significant growth of All Access Pass and how our key assumptions about how All Access Pass can affect and significantly increase lifetime value of our customers who are playing out today. Second, I’ll review our progress results for the fourth quarter and full year on both a reported basis and on an apples-to-apples pre-deferral basis. Third, just touch on five things which we believe will help to accelerate our growth in the coming quarters, things we're excited about and we think hopefully you will be as well. And finally, provide an update on our outlook and guidance for fiscal 2017. I’m going to start to out with on the -- talk about All Access Pass. As you can see in slide 3, we achieved significant All Access Pass growth again in fourth quarter. As you can see, we invoiced 13.7 million in All Access Pass and All Access Pass related services, representing significant growth compared to the 6 million in the third quarter, the 3.1 million in second quarter and then almost 400,000 in the first quarter. The 13.7 million invoiced in the fourth quarter is actually greater than all of the All Access Pass Amounts invoiced for the first three quarters. Combined, we felt very good about the momentum then. For the full year, we invoiced 23.2 million in All Access Pass and pass holder related services and products of which approximately 16 million was recognized as revenue in the year with 7.25 million being added to the balance sheet as deferred revenue at year end with an embedded contribution to adjusted EBITDA in that…

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Thank you, Bob and thank you everyone for being on the call today. So over the past couple of years, three factors have created some of the lumpiness in our reported results. Number one, the impact of foreign exchange, two, the yearly changes in revenue related to a major government agency contract that we've talked about before, and, three, the shift toward having much larger amounts of deferred revenue related to amounts invoiced. For example in fiscal ’16, the non-repeat of the government agency contract reduced reported revenue by 6.6 million and adjusted EBITDA by 3.9 million. Number two, the foreign exchange fluctuations reduced reported revenue by 900,000 and adjusted EBITDA by 800,000. The impact of increases in deferred revenue during the year was greater than the sum of these two factors, reducing reported revenue by 8.6 million and impacting adjusted EBITDA by 7.5 million. For FY ’17, there won't be any year-over-year impact from the government agency contract, because the contract was fulfilled in fiscal ’15 and generated no revenue or adjusted EBITDA in ’16 against which we need to compare. And while no one can predict FX changes, for the first time in years, we're starting the year in a position we’re assuming year-end FX rates remain stable, there will be no gain or loss from FX in fiscal ’17 with the increase in the yen offset by the declines in the pound. So a steady term. At least, we are in a better position beginning this year than we have been in for years related to FX. However as just discussed, as a result of All Access Pass and other intellectual property licenses, we've been generating a significantly increased amount of very high margin deferred description revenue and we expect this subscription type revenue to continue to…

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Thanks, Steve. We’ll obviously be delighted to answer your questions here in a moment. Just saying one other note is for the full year, we were delighted that some of the amounts recognized plus the increase in the amount deferred and the FX guidance from the original range, if you look at the -- and really the entire difference between where we were in June, if you take the actuals for the first nine months and then look at the amount that would have been for the fourth quarter, be about approximately 3.5 million of additional deferred -- we had thought at that point that we might have as much as 5 million increase in deferred revenue to get to the lower end of our guidance range of 31 to 36. And we ended up with $8.3 million increase in deferred revenues, so with almost 90% -- 88% contribution after deferred commissions, et cetera that if you take the first three quarters actual and then add the fourth quarter produced versus what we thought the extra 3.3 million of course also gets into the 31 range for the first three quarters as reported in the last quarter, adjusted for that. Before we go to questions, just want to touch on some things that we believe will help to accelerate our growth in the coming quarters. As you know, over the past couple of years, our growth rate has slowed, some of this slowing was due to foreign exchange headwinds as the non-repeat of the major government agency contract. But for reasons we’ve discussed in previous quarters, our growth in our US direct offices has also been slow. We believe the following things can actually begin to accelerate growth in our direct offices in the coming quarters and really for the…

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Okay. A little bit on guidance. So based upon the success of the All Access Pass, we've decided to modify our offerings and business practices to make the All Access Pass experience even better for our customers. These future changes could include adding content from thought leaders outside the company, localizing content, including additional assessments and developing webcast for our pass holders. These future changes in offerings of business practices will result in a much larger portion of our invoiced amounts being deferred over the term of the underlying contracts and agreements. Meaning that our deferred revenue on the balance sheet is expected to grow significantly in FY ’17. For guidance this year, we need to consider both the expected amount of reported adjusted EBITDA and the expected change in deferred revenue less applicable costs as recorded on the balance sheet and I know from talking to many of you that you are very familiar with this concept. In FY ’16, as you remember, we reported 26.9 million of adjusted EBITDA and an increase in deferred revenue less applicable cost of 7.5 million, as we've seen on slide 8. The sum of these two numbers is 34.4 million. While we do not know the mix of deferred sales versus recorded sales in FY ’17, we do expect that the sum of these two numbers will grow from 34.4 million in FY ’16 to between 35 million and 38 million pre-FX in FY ’17. As I said before, we expect the amount of reported EBITDA in FY ’17 to potentially decrease and maybe significantly and the amount of deferred revenue on the balance sheet to increase significantly. As to how this amount is likely to spread throughout the year, as always, our first quarter includes significant investments in new hires and this year will also include investments in localization and training necessary to launch All Access Pass globally at the end of the second quarter. Reflecting these investments, the results for first quarter could be 1 million or 1.5 million lower than last year with year-over-year growth beginning in the second quarter and beyond. So a last point. Last year in FY ’16, our All Access Pass invoiced amounts were 21.5 million plus services. Of the 21.5 million, we deferred 9 million. In FY ’17, that same invoiced amount with that same invoiced amount, we would defer the total 21.5 million. Additionally, we might do make changes in the business that would require us to defer a portion of our facilitator sales. So as you would expect, we're holding ourselves to a commitment of growing our invoiced amount as we've always talked about. It's just that is impossible right now for us to predict accurately the amount of those increased sales that will be deferred. So, Bob that’s..

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Why don’t we open it for questions, thanks Steve and let’s just open it for question.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we have a question from Tim McHugh from William Blair. Please go ahead.

Tim McHugh

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Just two questions, one given your strategy about the complexity in the business. Do you have a plan or a kind of goal you would care to share with - as it relates to cash flow or free cash flow. I think you're kind of getting there with all the other things but I wondering if that's just a better way to look at it. And secondly…

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

No, sorry I didn’t mean to interrupt you, I was just saying to Steve, I think that's actually really good suggestion and one that would be good. I think that some we should do and we'll do. That's a really good thing because the cash flow is, I think your insight is great. So, yes.

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

We don't have an exact number.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

I don't know how they will do that and we’ll send it out.

Tim McHugh

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

And just the midpoint of the kind of - if we do all the adjustments and kind of look at it, EBITDA adjusted for invoice, I guess kind of a high-single digit growth rate and maybe at the midpoint. I guess, given all you described about the positive trends as it relates to this, are there some offsets in there that I guess why not better than that. I guess what are kind of the pros and cons and kind of maybe holding that back as you think through the next year.

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Well, one thing is - the plain English version is one concept is, you want to give us a little bit of room to hit within our number considering things that we can now envision. There's a possibility like in the past that something will happen that we don't envision right now that will cause us to have to go down a little bit. So the bottom end of our range we believe is a little bit conservative. So as we go forward there are several things going on. One is that we will have an increase in costs related to the additional sales people that we've hired and the bonuses that we would incur from hitting our numbers. Going the other way, we had a pretty big write-off of a receivable last year that we do not expect to repeat in the current year so that would be a positive. We expect China to be a positive. So, as far as a headwind if you will that would keep the number down, it would be related to cost, really developing and accelerating this all access pass. Adding the 30 salespeople and the annualization of the 24 that we hired last year and the bonuses that would be related to us hitting our numbers.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

As usually, Tim, your insights are correct. I mean the numbers to which we're being held and which was holding our people too would be to produce at the very high end or above the top end of that range. And we're just trying to give some flexibility since this is new and we’ve got some investments to make although they are not huge, they are still meaningful.

Tim McHugh

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

If we're trying to just the profitability of deferred revenue I guess. When we look at the increase in deferred revenue, it is as we the kind of the ratio you're describing for Q4 the right way you would tell us we can think about that in the future?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Yes, yes.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

And that really includes deferred commissions that relate to that even though we paid the commission there's a true deferred commission expense and a little bit of cost to sale. But on the IP it's really…

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

So we do have a sales people at the time that they actually complete the transaction with the customer and we have a valid receivable so as we defer the revenue, we also list a portion of that commission as essentially a prepaid commission. So, the flow through of the 85% to 88% flow through when that deferred revenue hits the P&L last year.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

And you'll be able to track it on the balance sheet because it will either be in deferred revenue or in…

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

You probably noticed that we broke out separately on the balance sheet deferred revenue, just sort of be easier for somebody to track that piece of it.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

And the expenses.

Steve Young

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

And then the expenses are in our prepaid expenses, but you can consider that to be 85% to 88%.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Jeff Martin from ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Jeff Martin

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

Question on the - may have to defer $21 million on similar amount from fiscal ‘15. I'm curious on what may affect that you say you may have to versus you will have to. And second part of the question is, why would you have to defer the whole thing in fiscal ‘17 versus a smaller portion - much smaller portion of that in ‘16.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

I mean – Steve, do you want to go ahead first?

Steve Young

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

Well, first of all. So when we say defer, defer the amount, to defer the amount over the term of the contracts, so we where to begin any time we would have a sale, we would begin recording that revenue one set a year contract, one 12th every month over the life of the contract rather than taking the deferred revenue at the end. And the things that I mentioned things like adding content to the make available for our new customers and making localized content available and allowing what we sell to them in the future to change that's what changes the accounting such that we would not be allowed to record a portion upfront and defer a portion like we did last year, we just need to defer the entire amount and record it over the period of the contract.

Jeff Martin

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

And I guess I'm just curious why it would - why the percentage would shift that much more [indiscernible] this year.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

Here's the idea Jeff, let me just. If you break our - if you break the way that we can account for revenue into four groups, which I think [indiscernible] [00:52:52] I'm thinking about it going forward be one is intellectual property, two is portals, portal services and thing. Third is services and fourth is products. As we have introduced All Access Pass, historically we've sold a manual to a facilitator that whole thing if it's a $200 manual, it's been treated of course as a product sale because it is fully delivered at that time, we could choose to - if that's what we continue to do in the future that group matures over the years and we convert that group over the next two or three years, ultimately we go into All Access Pass. But what we did with All Access Pass is to split that $200 manual into the IP portion and into the manual and now I’d buy for 100 people I would be paying a $170 a person, say $17,000 dollars for the intellectual property and they can buy manuals or not because some people in Silicon Valley or other places may just want the content delivered on their iPad or whatever else and never buy a manual and so we've already separated in All Access Pass the IP from the actual physical manual. And with the IP, we've added a bunch of richness to it, so in addition to the actual manual or the content that’s now digital or they can print out, but it's digital. We give them - they can intersperse the training, they can include our insights module, our digital assets, so they have - we've outlined hundreds of different ways in which people can take our content interspersing digital content…

Jeff Martin

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

On the client partner side, could you kind of give a high level sense of how these client partners’ sales approach are shifting? How are they managing the traditional side of the Franklin Covey business versus the All Access Pass side that would be helpful thanks?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

I’m going to ask Paul Walker to just to respond to that.

Paul Walker

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

Sure, thanks Bob. Just a couple of thoughts. First of all as far as converting, we hope that as time goes on here, all of our clients will want to become Pass holders that’s certainly the goal we have is that we - as we engage with them now that we're talk to them about the value and the benefit because there are great value - great benefits and value to them to convert over. How it's changing the way client partners work day in day out, one of the things that we're focusing heavily on is just making sure that as we go in and call on our clients, we’re really identifying what's the real job they're hiring us to do and ensuring that we're connected clearly to a strong business case that affects lot of people. It's a big initiative going on inside the organization because we know that not only will increase the size of the initial path and connect us to something that's really got legs to it. But also increases our chances to go in and improves our odds of going in and having this discovery day Bob talked about earlier, where we can expand the population, expand the size of the pass and expand the number of jobs we can help that client with on the back end. So we're focusing really heavily with the client partners on really getting back to some of the basic selling, in a very strategic way, larger deals, more transformational deals that is, as Bob mentioned, is increasing the initial size of the deal and it’s also increasing the amount of revenue we're doing with these clients post initial pass sale.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

And I think Jeff and I was changing so we're in the past when we were in the more product launch mode, and again, we've talked about this in the past, we were there we were doing a lot of more promotional things, we had a big initiative, we were getting a new product pushed out. Now this is much more a day to day make your ten hours a week of sales calls, on those ten hours a week face to face meetings you're going to have a number of meetings with people who just bought passes, the discovery day, you’ll have new meetings with people who just attend it. And your day on a look pretty much the same quarter after quarter, year over year and well I don't mean that, okay if last year's first quarter we did a promotion or something that will be pushed on one product, you'll lose that on for the first year they do year-over-year. Then creates something we're - just big pipeline is growing all the time and they'll add a lot more sales on and that's what's happening. Something north of 70% of our opportunities that are in sales force right now, salesforce.com are related in one way or another Total Access Pass and it's just the nature, once they go in there even if somebody say they just wanted to train one course, you're going to say well fine, we can turn the other buttons off, so you don't see anything else. But still the most economical and flexible way to implement that one course is accessing the content through an All Access Pass where you we can have all these other digital assets to help you out, and hey by the way, if during the year you decide to do something else, you've already got it and we can help you find value. So it's really changing the whole sales approach to something that's not promotional, that’s happened as we've talked before the average opportunity size went down with these product oriented and facilitator sales. The average opportunity is going way up, the sales cycle are a little longer just because you have to sign a contract with but the deals are so much bigger and the pathway to doing something meaningful is there, so we think the tradeoff is going to really pay off.

Jeff Martin

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

Reaching a level of 12 million in the fourth quarter, your fourth quarter into the launch seems to be indicative of succession in this area. I mean, do you expect that to continue to ramp at the pace that we’ve seeing, I mean, are we going to get to 20 million a quarter [indiscernible] [01:01:02] unreasonable to think.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead

I think in fact, I’d really appreciate you raising that. As you know our fourth quarter is historically the time we saw most of our IP and so that the big facilitator quarter as a consequence it was the big year of - the big quarter of conversion. So I think if we add something like 4 million to 5 million, maybe 5 million to 6 million of invoiced amounts per quarter until we come up against the renewals, it's our first quarter, I think if we got something between 5 million to 6 million of new sales. That would be a good thing given our normal seasonality of when people you know the sales cycle for people. The second quarter you pick that up again, a similar amount 5 million to 6 million invoiced announced and you start to pick up a percentage of the renewal. I think it's more like that, so I think the year over year will be impressive but the sequential will follow seasonality for a while and then hopefully over time the seasonality will just get less.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marco Rodriguez from Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Marco Rodriguez

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

A bit of a follow up on the All Access Pass here. I know in the past you had described that business or that service or how you'd like to describe it as kind of an incremental revenue generation for Franklin Covey and it sounds like obviously this it's been doing very well and you're changing some of the services that you're adding in there. Should we characterize that business as still incremental revenues or are you seeing perhaps some of your existing clients switching the way they're buying from you?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I think number one the first thing is it will convert – we only want to cannibalize all of our existing clients. Because the average sales size for our facilitator clients I say average, but this is the mean across 2000 of them is around $9,000, $8,500 a year they spent in the year they spent the most, in over three years they spend about twice that amount. So the typical facilitator is loyal and buying every year, but they might buy at a different time, where they might skip over three years, they generate $15,000 of revenue. For us with All Access Pass, the initial sales side, the initial sale has averaged about 28,000 in the initial sale. We're getting about 20% of that amount even in this early stage of increased either services or expansions or upgrades on those passes and then hoping for an 80% renewal rate. And so, over those same three years rather than getting $16,000 we're thinking in terms of having more like 60,000 or 65,000. And so number one, we really want to get all of our existing customers across the bridge and yet like say to-date, only about 12% or 13% of those people have gotten across the bridge. So we have a long you know a lot of headroom to get that done but that's number one and every one that we convert we - they have that advantage. So that's a major objective but we don't want to do it as a promotion or something, we just want to go out there and have discussions and meet them where they are and over the next two or three years get them all across. To your second point though really a significant portion of our sales more than half have come…

Marco Rodriguez

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

So you also addressed changing or rather uptick in the All Access Pass with additional languages and kind of launching that overseas. I don't know if I missed that but was there a timeline associated with that?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I apologize, it was very clear, we’ll have that localization work done by the end of February so that we can launch across the world March 1. And so those people are now going through say, Paul was down in Phoenix yesterday for the review of all the training materials and the training process for all those people. Sean and his team tomorrow morning we have a call with all the partners to get them ready for this. And they actually have weekly call on this, I’m on it tomorrow. So we expect them to be ready to go March 1 to get selling this. So that by the end of the third quarter or the start of the fourth quarter, we are to start see some traction given the sales cycle internationally. Also in the offices in Japan and now China we have a similar timeline.

Marco Rodriguez

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

And last quick question just in regard to your outlook here, you used this word a transition period, where then your future results will be a little bit more predictable for you guys on a quarter to quarter basis or have you. Can you help define what that transition period is timeline wise, are we talking next year, three years, five years.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

That's great, it’s tight a little bit to Jeff’s question as well. To the extent - let's say we went all the way and starting tomorrow every sale we make this year - that we made last year we do with these additional services so that IP portion is 112 that the portals are already 112 and then services and products are sold on that. That way if we did that immediately then the transition of the you know really other than mix between services and products and IP at least all the IP and portals would have transitioned in one year because everything we sell whether it's a pass or it’s an individual course where we're splitting the IP from the manual and having them buy the manual separately, we’d get it done real quickly. So our idea really for the - number one because our customers we can then have this strategic advantage with them. But number two to get across the bridge quickly we want this transition period to be as short as possible and if we go to that immediately then that shortens the time so that over the two years you get across the bridge instead sort of over three or four.

Steve Young

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Totally agree Bob, I just want to make the point that we're not just deciding here what accounting to introduce, we're deciding what business practices to implement and that will drive the accounting. So we're not just deciding to change our account and what we've done. What we're talking about is if we're going to allow our customers to have different services over the time of their contract that requires us to go subscription so that's the business practice that’s driving the account.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Stonegate Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Did that answer that Marco, [indiscernible] we're thinking the business practices are going to change so that it's on the short side of that possible transition not the long side.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Kevin Liu from B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead.

Kevin Liu

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

Just in terms of the Q4 in which amounts for All Access Pass. Could you just talk about whether any of those were multi-year in nature or those are all 12 months or less.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

The nature of the contract generally has been a one year contract. This automatically renewable if they don't let us know within six - 90 days, sorry I was going to say 60, within 90 days and so they're all one year, they've all been one year contracts. Actually in recent days, we've had requests as we get in there with people saying well gosh, I’ve already plotted out what I'm going to be doing for the next three years. I'd rather not have to worry about a price increase and changes et cetera, we were reticent to do that because the way the offering was structured, one year made sense because we couldn't give them additional content that they didn't buy in the original past because a portion of those recorded IP upfront and only the digital assets were recognized over time. As we made the decision, wait a second, we can get lots of, we think we are getting lots of these multi-year contracts. If we tell them that whatever content that we develop or come up with in the meantime whatever changes in the portal we do they’ll get the benefit from that it's been restricted not because they weren't willing, they were already plotting out through two and three year impact journeys. It was that we didn't want - we couldn't promise them that they get the benefits of upgrades in our offering So that's part of what we've been talking that if we say we're going to do what's right for the customer we're going to give it competitive advantage. We're going to be able to tell them hey, in addition to the courses, hey we're going to have people - we're going to have really premium webcast that helps you get additional value. We're going to add anything you buy, you get the new content, if we have a new course you'll get it. Two things will happen, one it will drive the transition faster, but also it will we think drive more of these multi-year contracts because people are already thinking in longer terms, we're just - our business practice was forcing them to get to a shorter. That makes sense.

Kevin Liu

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

Yeah understood. And maybe more generally on that just in terms of how your invoicing today, are you primarily billing on kind of a monthly or quarterly basis, are you actually doing a full year upfront?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

We bill upfront, the pay on normal terms and so I think that's reflected if you see in the cash flow, the cash flow was 33 million, which is just build invoice. So by the time we're recognizing we've had to cash flow long time.

Kevin Liu

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

And then just lastly for me certainly over the course of fiscal ’16, you guys have turned quite a bit of capital to shareholders while do have some upticks and some of the product development costs for next year I'm just curious whether you expect to continue to return significant amount of free cash flow to shareholders.

Steve Young

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please go ahead

I doubt, it will be 43 million but yes we’ll continue to generate cash and we expect to do something with cash and expect that that will include purchasing shares opportunistically.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Alex Paris from Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Chris Howe

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

Good afternoon, this is Chris Howe sitting in for Alex Paris. Most of my questions have been asked but I did have a few left over. You mentioned the discovery dates with current AAP partners is still ongoing. I was just wondering at what point do you think you will have visited the majority of the existing AAP partners.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

That's a great question. Every Tuesday morning we ask the whole team that question have a review of it. We did 90 new discovery days in the last two weeks and there is a - the idea is we want these done. We want them all done by year end, calendar year-end, we won't get them all done with the holidays but our guess is over the next 90 days or so we will have - we will have had those discovery days, not all of it is us by the way I mean some people just can't get their team together until after Christmas. But our idea going forward is the call within two days, the initial call where they have this hour plus planning session and that discovery day within 30 and that's the standard. So all of that data is now in, we track red, yellow, green and its green if it's being held within 30 days, we just didn't think of it and we didn't think of discovery day until, I mean we didn't come up with that as the best way to do it until we tested it for a few months. So I think it'll be probably into the - well into the second quarter, say by end of January or so by the time all those that we're in a year-end, we'll have the discovery day. One thing we did for a lot of these passengers not recognizing that we wouldn't have as some of them have a little longer time so they had a 14 month contract or something so they didn't lose, if they couldn't get things planned in time, they would still get a full year's value this first year.

Chris Howe

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

And just a follow up on that. Of the ones that you’ve had the chance to visit thus far. What percentage have converted or upgraded to additional services and maybe you can share some additional thoughts on some of the early successes you've had during the discovery process?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

So first all, I’ll let Paul, you untie some of the success they've had in the discovery process.

Paul Walker

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

For these the discovery days that we hold, they’re anywhere from a few hours to an entire day and sometimes we do it will do a couple different sessions with the same client the idea is if you can imagine we might have sold the path to the head of learning and development or Chief Learning Officer and he or she purchased the path for a specific purpose say a leadership development initiative but they've now invited us then come to this discovery day and around that table might be the Head Of Sales, might be an operational lead, it might be somebody else in another running another part of the business and we're sharing with them how we partner with organizations like theirs and outlining how they might be able to leverage the pass. And oftentimes that does lead then to additional sales. I would say about a third of our clients that we've done discovery days with are actually adding on additional seats, additional services. One example we had a client in Texas, brought the pass for a leadership development initiative, they came back into the discovery day and they invited their head of sales to come and the head of sales purchased for his population that actually doubled the size of the original pass and then added on 12 consulting days. So it took what was initially around $40,000 sale and took it up to $120,000 or so engagement over the first year. And so that's just kind of a high level how it works and what we're seeing.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

And mathematically we've sold about 5 million of add-on services, expansions, upgrades or products in these first 100 plus discovery days. And so I don't you know I don't know that if we do 800 more we'll get to 40 million. But I’m saying I think the idea is that we think about a third of them what will do something new initially and with this discovery day process is a one-time thing, we expect to visit every quarter to update as we think there's a whole another way. I mean the number of large deals that we have now and large opportunities is like 20 times the number we had last year at this time because people see now how they can use this to do things that never would have considered. We go in and when we tell them hey, look you can do this yourself or you can go I want to continue and you can get up to help you a little bit up front and certify your people or we can do it for you. Once you give them option if not hiring you, then they raise their hand to say well hey, I'd like some help and that's what's it – were historic we didn’t never did that, we sold them the manuals and said they go at it. So I think there's a lot of opportunity, happy to give you more examples if you'd like to call, we can go over ten client examples specifically what happened if that’s helpful.

Chris Howe

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

Now thank you for the additional color. It’s been very helpful and we'll follow up.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead

[indiscernible] if anybody has some specific questions and want to see how this really works. We're happy to be completely transparent on, hey, we’ll pick 20 at random, you can pick numbers one, five, seven, nine and whatever and we’ll just tell you exactly what happened in the discovery days and what came from but if you want to get a better sense we could schedule an hour some time and do that would be happy to do so.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Samir Patel from Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead.

Samir Patel

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

So fantastic to see all the momentum on All Access Pass. My primary question is basically Tim’s question which I guess I'll ask a slightly different way. Again just to reiterate it sounds like you have all this fantastic momentum, you're getting clients spending a lot more money, you're reengaging clients who maybe weren't active in recent years. And yet your adjusted EBITDA guidance when you add back the deferred revenue portion is still not quite as high as I would've expected for 2017 and I guess that's because of some of the investments that you're making in the traditions. So we will count to 2018 right, when some of the one-time investments are kind of in the books and you also have the renewals on top of the new business that you're signing up. I mean is, I know it's early but would it be unreasonable to expect your adjusted EBITDA plus deferred number to be in excess of 40 million.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

I think this right, it wouldn't be - we'd be expecting it.

Samir Patel

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

So I mean basically you're kind of – you’re fundamental underlying business growth is actually higher than the adjusted EBITDA growth you're just reinvesting some of that and you'll see a significant acceleration from ’17 to ’18…

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

Exactly when Tim raised the question, one of the other reasons is we've had for the last few quarters I mean for more than a year maybe seven quarters we've had a decline in the services side of the business or the onsite delivery days. And we think that these add-on pass sales et cetera and these add-on service we’re going to reverse that but these are independent of the pass. It’s things where people used to just hire you independently and now you have to do it through the pass and this is what is declined some. I think part of our conservatism is to say we believe that whether it’s this quarter or next quarter or next quarter that that's going to turn with all these new services and offset that. But otherwise we do have a negative headwind onsite days that's pushing against us and that's part of our conservatism. We actually believe we're going to solve it, if so then we really are on the very conservative edge. If it takes us longer so solve than we think it might - than we hope, it might take us a little longer, but then once we get that solved, I think your point is exactly right, the investments aren't that many, I mean our investments are massive, we're not talking about investing 5 million, and 6 million and 7 million of expense in these things. These are incremental a $2 million of extra marketing and development expense so forth, so the real issue is can we overcome some of the trends we've had that have offset this growth and if we do it quickly enough that it all gets in this year or is it something that which we know we're going to solve it, but it takes longer. And so I think that's just a conservatism as I mentioned all of us have plans to do better in the next year certainly thought be in that range.

Samir Patel

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

And actually good thing you brought that up because that was going to be my little follow up, which is, I'm not sure I completely understand those dynamics around the onsite days. Clearly there is increasing demand from your clients for your products or I mean that's pretty clear from the All Access Pass uptick. Can you just explain a little more depth exactly what's been going on with those onsite days the past, I think you mentioned seven quarters and why you expect that to reverse?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

So the onsite days typically occur in one or two circumstances. One is where it's a brand new client, who doesn't know exactly what they're going to try to do and therefore they don't want to invest in certifying teachers inside their own companies, so it’s kind of a first time engagement, where we're in there and they come in and have a look at training and have this delivered for them. That's not what's been affected you know that still happens, they still got that passes like a great idea, but I just need a course tomorrow and week after tomorrow that's a good way of getting to know us after which they say, gosh this was great. And we then tell them about the pass and that they can get those same services like discount if they buy the pass. The second one where this really resides is that, there are some engagements that drive a lot of the service revenue. But which haven't been a sticky, so execution is a very sticky solution, but in the implementation we have lots of services up front, where a $90,000 track that somebody buys to take 25 managers through a track to get them certified in how to lead an execution engagement. That is, out of the $20 million we do in the execution practice only about $12 million of that is on the intellectual property side and $12 million is on the services side. And so, as we have provided more content for execution, where people can do more some of this on their own, two things happen. One, the populations are growing a lot and people are involved in the execution solution. But in the initial phase of them buying rather than having to buy services in order…

Samir Patel

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

Have you dimensionalized that with a number as far as how big that headwind is or has been?

Bob Whitman

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

We have, so in the third and fourth quarters, the headwind in the US direct offices was about $2 million a quarter. Now the margins are lower, so I mean the impact has been about $1.2 million, so let’s say 60% gross margin because it includes services and there's some travel associated that has no margin where they reimburse us for travel. So it hit has negatively about $1.2 million in the US direct offices in the third and fourth quarters. In the first quarter, my guess is it will be similar. On a year-over-year basis, it will be probably similar around a couple of million dollars, but it would have - and in each chase, in the fourth quarter it would have been more like it was in the third quarter but it's being offset by these new services. So as those get delivered, bookings them is one thing, delivery it might be 90 days later, we have some visibility into the idea that by -- into the second quarter, it should start to – it should flatten and start to turn by the third quarter and then we think it will be the amount of headwind will reduce every quarter after that. So maybe a year from now, we have no headwind hopefully or somewhere in that range and at least we’re flat. On a year-over-year basis, we would be growing that we get that 2 million back through additional services.

Samir Patel

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

Okay. Got it. And one final thing, I know that one of the things we talked about previously was how you were looking to expand your sales focus for kind of your traditional benchmarking and Exxon Mobils, the big companies in the world to maybe more the middle market, maybe smaller companies, but it sounds like right now, you kind of have plenty of stuff on your hands just as far as getting existing clients on All Access Pass. Is that kind of still your next leg of growth kind of actually get through that?

Steve Young

Analyst · Askeladden Capital Management. Please go ahead

First of all, I think most of our clients actually are in the middle market. Most of them are not Fortune 500 companies. We do business with all the Fortune 500, but it's not a deep penetration. We actually typically would have a deeper penetration with the 1000 to 500 person employers, that’s a really great spot for us and we have lots of business in the 200 to 500. So I think with us, the thing that has been an issue of growing -- if what your primary search -- primarily selling was a course, a specific course or a content area, even in a big company, we’re penetrated very deeply, because they were figuring which group was going to go through it. You are actually -- now, we were able to get more penetration in both. So I think really our strategy is to for -- we’ve organized so that the sales person, their collection of 60, 70 or 80 class signed accounts with whom they might be doing business with 20% of those today or 30% and the others are prospects is actually a pretty good mix of middle market big accounts and even smaller accounts with 200 or so employees. So I think the allocation of accounts is across markets. The approach is going to be the same though to go into those accounts as to what jobs they're trying to get done and have the All Access Pass be the methodology for delivering on it. And so I think our go to market will -- is really already across those. We don't go to small business per se and less than 200 hasn't been a target for us, but otherwise our mix is pretty much that -- in fact it would be helpful. Maybe it will just take note in a future conference call, we can give you a mix of -- how that mix -- what that mix looks like between large and medium and small accounts. Sorry, we’ve kept it so long, but this is -- really appreciate all the great questions.

Operator

Operator

And we have no further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call over to Bob for closing remarks.

Bob Whitman

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead

Great. Well, I just want to thank all of you so much for joining. We look forward to talking with you, if you’d like to catch up and thanks so much. We're very encouraged about what’s going on and appreciation your support and thoughtfulness. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.