Operator
Operator
Welcome to the FuelCell First quarter 2008 earnings results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Lettieri. Please go ahead, ma'am.
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)
Q1 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 6, 2008
$9.89
—
Same-Day
-6.97%
1 Week
-9.24%
1 Month
+10.61%
vs S&P
+6.21%
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the FuelCell First quarter 2008 earnings results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Lettieri. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Lisa Lettieri
Management
Thank you operator. Good morning everyone and welcome to FuelCell Energy's first quarter results conference call. Delivering remarks today will be R. Daniel Brdar, Chairman and CEO, and Joseph Mahler, Senior Vice President and CFO. Before proceeding with the call, I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded and this presentation contains forward-looking statements including the company’s plan and expectations for the continuing development in the virtualization of our fuel cell technology. Listeners are directed to read the company’s cautionary statement on forward-looking information and other risk factors in its filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. I would now turn the call over to Dan Brdar
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Thank you, Lisa. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for FuelCell Energy's first quarter conference call. Today, I will begin with an overview of the period followed by a review of our financial performance by our Chief Financial Officer, Joe Mahler. Our $29 million in orders for the period is the single best quarter in the company's history, increasing our product and service backlog to a record $84.7 million. Over the last two years, we laid the groundwork to propel our drive to profitability, penetrating key markets, continuing to bring down our product cost, and expanding our manufacturing capacity. In the first quarter, we signed 9.45 megawatts of new orders, moved our five year stack into production, produced lower cost DFC300 and DFC1500, and doubled our manufacturing run rate to 25 megawatts per year. I will go into more detail on these activities in a few moments, but first we will turn the call over to Joe Mahler for a look at the company's financial performance during the quarter. Joe?
Joseph Mahler
Management
Thank you Dan and good morning everyone. I am pleased to report that the Company's first quarter 2008 financial results improved over the prior year. Total revenues for this first quarter were $15 million, more than twice the $6.8 million reported in the similar period last year. Product sales and revenues doubled to $9.8 million, from $4.9 million, driven by increased orders for megawatt class power plants. Research and development contract revenue totaled $5.3 million, up from $1.9 million last year. Our order volume for the first quarter was strong. We booked $29 million of new product orders in the quarter and increased our backlog to $84.7 million, a 131% increase over the last year’s $36.7 million and a 47% sequential increase over fourth quarter 2007 levels. Our product backlog today stands at 21.6 megawatts, driven by megawatt class orders from customers in South Korea and California. As we look ahead, we expect the Connecticut Project 150, 16.2 megawatt projects to add an estimated $43 million to the backlog. Our product cost to revenue ratio improved 27% on a year-over-year basis coming in at 1.99 for the 2008 first quarter compared to 2.73 in 2007. This resulted from increased sales of megawatt class power plants and reduced unit cost across all product lines. This continues our trend of improving cost. While the year-over-year improved significantly, the cost ratio compared to the fourth quarter was up from 1.57. There are several factors causing this. Increased revenues from higher cost sub megawatt sales came through in the quarter. We recognized revenue on older 250 kilowatts and older 1 megawatt units in the quarter as we transitioned to the megawatt and multi megawatt model, inventory increases to support the growing backlog, inventory increases that are adjusted for fair value. Ramp related costs were…
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Thanks, Joe. As I review the highlights of our first quarter, I want to underscore the progress we've made building on our leadership positioning in key markets, continuing to make gains in our product cost-out program, and continuing to put in place the operational capabilities we need to sustain and expand our growth going forward. Let me discuss each of area separately. First, in market leadership; Asia and California are leading the way to a greener future by demanding new sources of clean, reliable power. Because of their low emissions profile, 24/7 advantages, and affordability on our target markets our direct fuel cell products are highly competitive. Very simply, DFC power plants meet the worldwide need for ultra-clean energy generation. During the first quarter, our partners in South Korea, POSCO power, ordered 4.8 megawatts of DFC power plants, bringing the total orders from POSCO to 12.6 megawatts during the last 12 months. We believe these orders are just the beginning because of the increasing power needs of the Asia-Pacific region, and because POSCO Power is uniquely positioned to help meet that need. Electricity consumption in South Korea and across Asia is booming. During the last 15 years, South Korea's electricity consumption has grown 9% a year, and strong demand is anticipated to continue during the next decade. To meet the demand for power generation equipment, POSCO Power is currently building a balance of plant manufacturing facility. This facility will be completed later this year, with an initial BOP production capacity of 50 megawatts per year growing to 100 megawatts per year by 2010. POSCO Power will order fuel cell modules from FuelCell Energy to integrate with its balance of plant. POSCO is primarily focused on megawatt class sales in South Korea and worked with the Korean government to develop an…
Operator
Operator
Thank you sir. The question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. (Operator instructions) And our first question comes from Sanjay Shrestha with Lazard Capital Markets.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Great. Good morning, guys. First of all, congratulations here on a good backlog front and the outlook. Couple of quick questions, first can you remind us in terms of the timeline that would be required for you guys to go from 60, 120 to 240 megawatt and the CapEx required for that?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
On 60 -- to get to 60 we have $14 million that we're going to spend this year to have that capacity in place. To ramp to 60 is really a matter of bringing people on board at that point. So, with the design work already in process, equipment already under procurement, we could actually be at 60 megawatts by late summer. To go from 60 megawatts to 120, takes $30 million to $35 million in capital, and will take us about 18 months from the time we pull that trigger to actually have that equipment in place, operational, and then people on board to operate it.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Okay, terrific. And, also then, another question: one more on the backlog. Obviously, you guys have done a great job from this cost-out program, it's getting better every year, year-over-year. And, as the increasing mix of megawatt class product in this backlog, if you were to look at cost of product ratio in your existing backlog right now, what would that look like?
Joseph Mahler
Management
Yeah. Sanjay, this is Joe Mahler.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Joe, how are you?
Joseph Mahler
Management
In the backlog right now, we have about 4 megawatts of sub-megawatt, and we have about 10 megawatts of 1 megawatt, and it's about 7 megawatts of 2 megawatt plant. The backlog, we still have some older units coming through. So, in effect, the sub-megawatt would be somewhere in the high one, approaching two, maybe slightly higher, the megawatt plants were about probably 1.5 range.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Okay.
Joseph Mahler
Management
We range around it, and the megawatt should be -- at this point we really haven't either -- we've all anticipating the Connecticut orders coming through; we're anticipating multi-megawatts activity out of the Koreans and we haven't been able to really launch that. It is coming, and so we are trialing on that, but the megawatts as we talked, the cost is around $3200 a kilowatt, should be in a 1:1 to 1:0.1 the point one kind of range in '08.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Got it. Now, we are finally at the point where as more and more of this multi-megawatt class product comes in, with the increasing revenue, you would also start to get the benefit of the decreasing cash?
Joseph Mahler
Management
That’s the model, sometimes it takes a little slower than we'd like, but that is clearly the model and certainly the 15 megawatts out at Connecticut will fill that model.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Exactly. One last question, then guys, as it relates to the backlog, how should we think about, how is the backlog going to hit the P&L and how should we think about that?
Joseph Mahler
Management
In timing?
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Timing, yes.
Joseph Mahler
Management
I mean in that we are actually at 25 megawatt run rate and we have 21.6 megawatts in backlog, it should take less than a year.
Sanjay Shrestha - Lazard Capital Markets
Analyst
Perfect. That’s terrific. I'll hop back in the queue. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Pearce Hammond with Simmons & Co. International. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Thank you. Good morning.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Hi Pearce. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Joe, the guidance for '08 for product cost of revenue ratio, could you provide any color for the full calendar year, I mean for the full fiscal year?
Joseph Mahler
Management
I don’t think - we haven't really done that task, Pearce, it's really a function of coming off where we are driving to this multi-megawatt model. The real driver to getting costs out is putting the two megawatt to multi-megawatts in as well as more megawatt plants, the newer megawatt design. The newer megawatt design probably comes in the third quarter, so getting those into the production plant really starts to drive this thing into that. That multi-megawatt plant should be at that 1:1, 1:1.1 ratio, and the 1 megawatt plants will be a little bit higher than that and that's really what we are driving to. In the meantime, we are transitioning the older inventory out, the older units out, and it's just going to -- it will come to that model pretty quickly once you put those new orders in. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Okay. And, then a follow-up on Sanjay's question; so would you expect over the course of the next 12 months to realize that backlog?
Joseph Mahler
Management
Yes, I mean we now have -- we are in pretty good shape and we have 21.6 in backlog. At this point, we really believe we are going to get the 16.2 out of Connecticut. So, you really have a 38 megawatts backlog. So, there is no reason to be holding back or anything. We got a 25 megawatt run rate, it is full bore and so we expect to be pushing that out. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: And when would you expect the Connecticut order to actually hit the backlog?
Joseph Mahler
Management
We'd hope, I mean the technical period is the 90 day period from January 23rd. So, you are talking about having absolute go-ahead around April, if I'd say April, end of April-May is when we would expect that to hit. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Sure, and then one final question. When the POSCO plant is up and running, how should we model the sales, how should we think about that?
Joseph Mahler
Management
I think what you'll see from us is evidence of course. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Right, but from what sort of revenue would you receive, you are obviously just selling the stacks at that point. Would that ratio be obviously a positive ratio for the stacks that you would be selling, a positive gross margin on those stacks?
Joseph Mahler
Management
The answer to that is that our initial thinking would be that whether or not it was a stack or a full power plant, that the same cost ratio impact should be achieved, which means that as we push, I think we have been saying as we push volume of the multi-megawatt through our facilities then, we should start to. So, for example I think we've talked in the past about a full power plant costs $3250. As we push volumes through we should be able to get that number below $3000. On these stacks, we would expect at this point the same results. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Okay. So, just think about it in the same way, just obviously.
Joseph Mahler
Management
It’s not 100% of the total cost, but the module -- that relationship should be pretty similar. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Should it have a better margin profile because you're just essentially selling the stacks?
Joseph Mahler
Management
It can, but what our initial thinking is, is that we are high -- we are still driving our cost down. Okay, to achieve that, I mean we are right on target in terms of if you have an incremental margin opportunity, because it's our proprietary technology, we're the only people in the world making it. But, we're still in that transition, that we still have $3200 going to $3,000 stacks, I'm not sure you'll accomplish that in the first bulk order process, but I think that model opens up as you start to get your cost down further, I think that model, that differential will occur. Pearce Hammond - Simmons & Co. International: Okay. Great thank you so much, guys.
Operator
Operator
And we'll move on to our next question with Walter Nasdeo with Ardour Capital
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
Thank you. Good morning.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Good morning, Walter.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
I just want to follow-up a little bit on some of the stuff that's already been thrown around by the previous call and kind of going back to the Connecticut order. What's the effect of the reduced order on your cost out program and the velocity of that?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Yeah, it's really pretty straightforward; getting 16 megawatts is really what we want, and what we have is a series of triggers. What we're looking to do at this point in time is to expand the capacity and get this model, get more capacity, and get more volume through the facility to get the cost out faster. With the Connecticut order, what we were looking for originally was to use, say, at 35 megawatt order, which is still potentially there if we can pull off the triangle and use that as a potential trigger to expand capacity, move to 32 megawatts of production, move to 45 megawatts production. And, then, that combined with the Korean orders there we would expect as we build their facility there, we trigger the capacity expansion. I think it delays, it slows it, I think we're still making very good progress on cost out, I think we have the continued design changes, design work we are doing to reduce costs, but I think it doesn't allow us to, at this point, expand our capacity to capture all of the volume cost out. So, I think, yes you're going to see improvement, I think we are on the right track, I think you’ll see these megawatts plants, multi-megawatt models, start to kick in once the Korean and the Connecticut process move solid and I think we will be right there.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
Okay. Now other than Korea, California, and Connecticut where are you looking at to see other significant orders coming from? We haven’t really seen much out of Germany lately. Is there anything going on there?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Yeah. We actually have been working joint partner over there, now that they have come through this, the sale of their parent company. I should be meeting with them again next week and the focus really is for us to collectively figure out, how do we do more in Europe more quickly because if you look at the level of orders that we've gotten from Asia, from California, and now from the North East, it's significantly higher than Europe. And Europe is the market that we believe should be producing significantly more. So, we are continuing to work with the senior management of our partner over there, to figure how we accelerate that process for Europe.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
Right. And, then obviously I can't stop my question without asking you how the turbine fuel cell hybrid is coming?
Joseph Mahler
Management
Actually, we've got the unit that we had put at the customer’s site; we brought it back to do some modifications to it, because we intend to send it over to a location in Asia. There are some controls that we need to revise and some configuration changes we need to make to have the unit meet some of the codes in Asia. We hope to be able to have that thing under an agreement here in the next couple of months, then ship it off to site where the efficiency actually makes a pretty important impact in what we're trying to do in the market. So, hopefully we'll have an announcement here coming forward about where it's going to be going.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
Very good. Thank you. And Dan, did you say it's going to take between $15 million and $30 million to go from 60 to 120 megawatts, $15 million to $30 million?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
No, it's $30 million to $35 million to go from 60 to 120.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital
Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Mark Seigel with Canaccord Adams.
Mark Seigel - Canaccord Adams
Analyst · Canaccord Adams.
Hi, good morning guys, just a couple of questions. First, regarding POSCO, do you see them as continuing this pace of order-flow ahead of their balance of plant facility coming online? Is there anymore sort of preordering to be done there?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Based on what we were seeing from them and discussions we have with them recently, it looks like they are about to shift to module orders. We'll probably see maybe another order out of them, where they buy components to assemble one of our designs themselves. But, it looks like they are ready to start to make that transition to order just modules.
Mark Seigel - Canaccord Adams
Analyst · Canaccord Adams.
Okay, great. And then on the cost-out program, are you guys seeing any inflationary head winds there, I guess, whether it's in metals or any other materials?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
We actually already have seen it. If you look at what happened with nickel and stainless steel, they all peaked last year. We've seen those prices soften now, particularly nickel has softened considerably. So, we have continued to drive the cost down despite the pretty significant spike that happened, particularly in the nickel side. And, fortunately, we have a product that's pretty early in its lifecycle. So, there is still a lot of ability to offset those commodity price increases.
Mark Seigel - Canaccord Adams
Analyst · Canaccord Adams.
Okay, great. And then, lastly, do you guys have plans to bid into around three-year Project 150?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
We are working on that right now. We are going to participate and we are figuring out what projects we want to put in, we'll probably see some of the projects did not get selected in this last round, but we are also looking at what some new and created projects will look like as well.
Mark Seigel - Canaccord Adams
Analyst · Canaccord Adams.
Okay. And will those be bid for the full 25 megawatts that are outstanding or something less?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
I suspected the 25, because it’s not a big number, is going to be, probably significant over subscribed in terms of what totals go in from a bidding standpoint.
Mark Seigel - Canaccord Adams
Analyst · Canaccord Adams.
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Operator
Operator
And moving on to our next question from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James; please go ahead.
Pavel Molchanov - Raymond James
Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. I wanted to get an update on your Enbridge opportunities, we haven't really heard about that recently; any update on that?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Sure. The Enbridge unit that is going to go into Toronto, which will be the first FuelCell turboexpander combination, is under construction now. The turboexpander is in, they're finishing up some of the side work, and the unit that we are going to install in FuelCell side is being built. It's ready to be installed. They have to get through some last permitting issues they are dealing with up in Toronto. We expect the FuelCell turboexpander to be operational this summer. And, then Enbridge is also a participant in the 9 megawatt project that was selected in Project 150 for the Milford side. So, that will be the first multi-megawatt installation we will see in the US, and the discussions with that project in terms of the participants are pretty far along. So, it’s really getting through to middle of evidence of financing in April and that project will be able to start moving forward and get under construction. So, getting those two installed and operational are pretty important. I think gas companies want to see units operate, but, in the meantime, we're seeing Enbridge work with our guys to identify other sites here in the US. So, we think it would be a good application both in the Northeast and in California.
Pavel Molchanov - Raymond James
Analyst
Got it, thanks very much.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
You're welcome.
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Rob Stone with Cowen and Company.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
Hi, guys. A couple of questions if I may; first, the biogas opportunity sounds particularly intriguing. Could you answer me, you mentioned the number of municipal waste facilities around the country, could you answer me how many megawatts of installations that number of sites might ultimately support?
Joseph Mahler
Management
Yeah, it is, I don't think you can get off 550 of those sites. I'd say there are probably 200 to 600 megawatts and then kind of a play.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
What's interesting that we are seeing in California is, we always thought that the targets for us were going to be places where they were either flare in the gas or potentially burning in a boiler. But, with some of the California solutions once you start to see engines get replaced with fuel cells. So, we think there is also an opportunity as part of this natural equipment replacement cycle of these Wastewater Treatment facilities. And, then what's turning out to be also a pretty big market for us that we are really just starting to get our arms around is, not just Wastewater Treatment, but the food and beverage processing. If you think about what we did at sewage and breweries, the Gills Onions orders, and what we did with Kirin Brewery in Japan. It's turning out that food and beverage processing companies are increasingly turning to those anaerobic digesters because they are trying to find better ways to deal with the waste that comes from preparing prepackaged foods and as they installed digesters, it turns out it produces a great fuel for the fuel cell. So, I think we are going to see more of the food and beverage application as well.
Joseph Mahler
Management
Plus, the other thing to add is that, that number that we talked about at the beginning is really a mini wastewater, which is a one slice of the market. If you are going to look at the Asian-Japanese market, the Japanese market is over 2000 megawatts. They have been very focused on anaerobic digestion. So, United States is really just catching up in terms of new construction and new strategy at using this waste stream to produce -- and in fact renewable solids and fertilizers plus this renewable biogas that comes off the backend. So we think this is actually going to be significantly growing markets.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
What percent of the sites do you estimate are just layering the gap at this time?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
We've been having a tough time getting good data on that. There are quite a few that flare up but we are finding of that most of them are using it some capacity, most of them are typically putting in a boiler to generate steam and we're finding that particularly in places like California they are getting a lot of pressure to stop doing that because of the pollution that increase, if you just burn it. So I think it's more going to be function of what shifts from being burnt in a boiler and turn into power generation use, particularly using fuel cells.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
Okay. A related question with respect to the Linde opportunity at delivering biogas besides beyond the waste water or other treatment facility, how does that call us of delivered biogas in that kind of a set up, compared to natural gas and is it a straight forward economic trade or sites like that counting on some additional credits because they are using a renewable source.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Now most of the installations that Linde is looking at or what they are looking to do is to go into the site and they’ve identified in part of their own business model, how far they can economically effort to transport the gas. And they want to go in and basically be able to make a pitch to a customer that they can save money versus what they are paying there are electricity utilities. So it's really an economic play is what they are trying to offer to the end user customers. And the end user customer also gets the benefit of being able to say that they are now generating their own power using a green resource.
Joseph Mahler
Management
And the other interesting -- the very other very interesting aspect of that of the Linde business model is that they in effect they're producing a gas. It's the cost of the clean up and the transportation less then what the commodity cost in the market place. But what you eliminate over a 10 year contract is the commodity risk. So if you were comparing yourself to natural gas, there is really no natural gas commodity risk that comes into play because you know what the cost of producing the gas and transporting the gas is. You may have some inflationary factors but you certainly don't have a commodity play on it. So it is actually a very interesting model.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
Yeah. that’s that caught my attention because of the risk of natural gas as you feel first going higher in the future. Final question, more-more of a financial one. How much does the switch to a 5-year stack impact the life cost of electricity for the customer over the life of the system?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
On the customer-end they are not going to see much difference because what we were really doing in most cases is putting in place a 5-year service agreement. So for us it's an opportunity to improve what the margins look like on our service business. What we've done with the service agreements is really to make sure the end-user customer doesn’t take any kind of technology risk by adopting fuel cells. There was really a chance for us to continue to improve what our own economics look like on the service business.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
Okay. So putting it that way, how much of a difference percentage wise. Is it, is it a simple sort of [5, 1, 3] ratio or…?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
It's pretty close to it because the biggest factor in our operating maintenance cost is that stack replacement. So if you go to 5 years from 3 year, you get a pretty close to a corresponding improvement in terms of what you see on the service margins.
Rob Stone - Cowen and Company
Analyst · Cowen and Company.
Great. Thanks very much.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
You are welcome.
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions). And we'll take our next question from Anthony Reilly with RBC Capital Market.
Anthony Reilly - RBC Capital Market
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
Hi. Good morning.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Good morning.
Anthony Reilly - RBC Capital Market
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
Question on your balance sheet. You have $81.9 million in cash and cash equivalent. Can you kind of breakout what that's actually invested in, in light of, we've seen some of these options rates, in the city market kind of implode recently, do you guys have any exposure to that?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
No. Our policy is extremely conservative. It's basically the money markets that invest in US treasuries or US treasuries our investment policy is absolutely backed by the United States government at this point. So, we actually have the $81 in cash and the $54 in investments in the short-term category, and then, you have the investments US treasury long-term is all in those types of instruments.
Anthony Riley - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
Okay. Thanks for clarifying that.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Yeah.
Anthony Riley - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
Second quick question, OpEx, can you kind of talk about how you see that trending for the rest of the year if you could?
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
CapEx?
Anthony Riley - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
OpEx, operating expenses.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Operating expenses, in effect, so are you talking about specific categories of OpEx or the total -- you're talking below the margin line or…
Anthony Riley - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
No, just basic SG&A stuff like that, how should when combined that remaining.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
SG&A is, we don't -- from ramping the business we don't see that has an impact or a significant impact. We've been incrementally adding some selling into our numbers as we are getting more and more opportunities to sell product, we need to be able to respond to that. We have little bit there, but nothing really significant there. Our R&D costs will actually come up. We're actually in this quarter transitioning from completion of some major projects that we've accomplished in the fourth quarter to our and then transitioning to our 2008 objectives, which the major one is the power output increase. So, we would expect that, that number would increase over the 5 point, that more inline with where it was in the previous quarters.
Anthony Riley - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Market.
Okay. Thank you.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Yeah.
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Michael Molnar with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Molnar - Goldman Sachs
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Hi, good morning every one.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
Good morning.
Michael Molnar - Goldman Sachs
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
If I can just ask you some questions on some of the rough numbers a few years out, and I fully understand it's hard to know where that might go. But let say, get to a run rate of about a 150 megawatts at some point, however, many years out. There is a lot of uncertainty in terms of product mix etcetera. But if we would assume an ASP of 2500 hours of kilowatt and getting down to a cost of 1800 hours of kilowatt, is that makes sense in very rough comps or with that be way off base?
Joseph Mahler
Management
No. I think you're right. I think we would expect 20% or better margins with that kind of volume. We would expect the product mix to actually stabilize at that point into the multi-megawatt and megawatt. Most of that would be coming through the system. As we push volume through the system we don't see a significant difference in costs between, what it really now is down to it, there is a difference in the costs between the multi-megawatt is really the fixed costs differential in the balance of plan. On the two megawatt plant you're running more power to achieve, you really get a fairly, probably a 10%, maybe a 10% -- probably a 5% to 10% differential in the costs of that. So, those should both be very opportunistic from a margin standpoint. I don't see it is way out of whack.
Michael Molnar - Goldman Sachs
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Okay. And just one other question on this topic -- from some of the slides, the costs, your current costs are trending down to sort of 3,500 or 4,000 a kilowatt. Does that imply that your ASP is roughly around $2,000 a kilowatt, is that the kind of right thinking?
Joseph Mahler
Management
No. our ASP should be -- I think it is fairly public information. It is around $3000 a kilowatt. Certainly the Connecticut project is $3000 a kilowatt. So it's more like $3000 a kilowatt is where we are at.
Michael Molnar - Goldman Sachs
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.
R. Daniel Brdar
Management
I’d just like to thank everybody for participating in this morning's conference call and we look forward to speaking with you in next quarter as we continue to update on our progress. Thank you everyone.
Operator
Operator
And that concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. Have a good day.