Dennis J. Shaughnessy
Management
Well, I think going back -- it's Dennis again. I think going back to what David said before, I mean, even the frothy period of '06, '07, '05, I mean, you had secular issues and you had geographic issues. That is the same right now. There are certain parts of the economy where the companies are still under more stress on a relative basis than they were. I think -- so you -- while you have the balance of certainly dirt-cheap debt, a lot of liquidity, you also have stronger bank balance sheets that kick the can down the road. And eventually, you're going to address that. In Europe, there's about $700 billion, where the structured finance sitting on the books of about 5 banks. And they've moved maturity dates. It's covenant-light paper, but it's not very marketable. And that has to get addressed. I mean, I think it'll be addressed sensibly by them. They're much more comfortable doing debt-for-equity swaps than the U.S. banks. But it's somewhat masked by the sovereign debt issues that you see. So I think what you're going to see is -- I mean, I think you're not going to see a change in the liquidity structure in election year here in the U.S. So I would guess you're not going to see, except on a secular basis, any kind of significant pickup in defaults in the U.S. There is the potential for significant pickup in defaults in Europe. From what we're seeing in Spain, for example, some of the large companies may benefit from the kick the can down the road because they're with the biggest of the big banks. But the midsized companies, we think, are under duress. They can't borrow. They're with the smaller banks who have balance sheet issues. And so you may see a pickup in demand there. Asia, I think again, Asia is a little bit like the Brazilian story. It's just the velocity of capital. You can't thread the needle perfectly on every deal, and you generate issues that need to be addressed. So I think maybe it's more secular, maybe it's more geographic. We're not looking short of a significant change in the macro environment for a very robust year. On the other hand, we feel that we have probably corrected out at a new higher floor, and it won't be a drag on the earnings this year.