Jim Flores
Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please go ahead
Thank you, Richard. Good morning everyone. Before we start, we talked about the ore market commentary, you can see the WTI and Brent curves an HLS curves. Here on the graph the market obviously continues to be volatile as it goes to its price in market discovery of where all the wall ore needs to go and at what price. We see it as continue to be volatile, it was down 50% in the beginning of the first quarter, was up 20% at the end of the first quarter. So, as we bear through that as an assets re- price both in accounting but also in the marketplace. We continue to focus our operations and continue to do good things with the drill bit and fall through with our operating plan. We continue to see the ore market cleaning up if you will. The contango curve is always a positive event future oil prices on the Brent side and we continue to see the oil market under strain going forward as demand has really been the big story here in the first quarter as we seen a lot of gasoline demand here in the U.S. and other parts of the world on the finished product side that we think is going to continue increase as these current oil prices take hold of the marketplace. On Page 14, to put together just a chronological series of highlights from 2013 to 2014 obviously for Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas. When it was formed as the combination between PXP and MMR and acquired by Freeport 2013 big adjustment period and the total oil and gas divisions by 174,000 BOE per day. It was a big increase from 2012. Get our hands around all the assets and also the corporate structure of Freeport. It was a big achievement for us in ’13 and put us on a growth path to say how we’re going to develop all these assets and have the right personnel, right equipment, right operating plan going forward was a key part of it. And when we look at our asset review in 2014, we saw what assets might not fit in the next five years for us building value overtime. They were valuable at the time but they were not going to build value overtime and be meaningful to Freeport and the Eagleford shale someone like category which will end up selling it for $3.1 billion and we were able to rotate that about $1.5 billion of that money into some significant assets well overtime like Heidelberg, Lucius and our Vito project we’ll talk about. Then we continued to acquire leases and seismic to put our projects in the best possible position of bringing forward the exemplary results without failure and been able to use the new seismic and additional acreage to add the resources to our existing infrastructure. For 2015 we started seeing results there through with our first production of Lucius development that was a discovery that we discovered in 2009 with Anadarko and it came one netting us between 20,000 barrels a day to 25,000 barrels a day. We’ve successfully drilled wells at Holstein Deep and also King Marlin areas around our existing infrastructure that have validated our seismic and bought big resources there. We’ll show you the Holstein Deep progression of resources that we’ve identified there with additional drilling. And then also on our Vito area they’ve several joint prospects we drilled the first one that Richard’s talked about Power Nap that was successful, so we’re off to a great start there. And you go through – on top of that the Highlander discovery that we announced in ’14, we put in our production here in ’15 and it’s producing quite well down in the lower St. Martin Parish Louisiana and we look forward to talking about developing that further going forward as gas prices rebound. So all in all we’re on the edge where rose spot in oil and gas business and then with the 145 projects outlined on Page 15 that there are about greater than 20 percentage strip in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico this is all because it’s attached to existing infrastructure or has infrastructure plan that has – it’s very cost efficient in the Vito area but the Keathley Canyon, Green Canyon, Mississippi Canyon is tying back toexisting infrastructure that we own or we have an interest in. And the Vito area the reserves are so large that the returns are going to be excellent from the standpoint of size and the facility that we’re going to build with the operator shale and be in a situation to maximize our economics in that area. So with this deep inventory and so forth what we need to focus is manage our cash flow, manage our capital whether inside or outside going forward to make sure that we achieve the copper objectives of FCX. In the first quarter 2015 Freeport-McMoRan highlights on Page 16 we’ve had continued steady production performance from California. We advanced our Gulf of Mexico growth strategy as I described. The Inboard Lower Tertiary besides the Highlander significant flow test and production at Highlander, we’ve had our Farthest Gate West well as a potential discovery we have completion underway that we hope to have that completed this summer and I’ll talk further about that and we had about $100 million in net ore hedging realizations that helped buffer the volatile prices in the first quarter. And our deepwater Gulf of Mexico progress reports specifically area by area Green Canyon, Mississippi Canyon in the Vito area on Page 17 you can see there’s a lot of busy work going on and as we go through this process I want everybody to understand is that our operations plan and our budget or risk and that’s everybody does that but as our operation plan outperform our risk basically we had an incredible two and half quarters of excellent drilling results and so forth it also de-risk some of the capital and that’s somebody upside moving in our capital budget is strictly because who else who have risked it at 80% success for now, 100% success and so forth it may sound small but the numbers are big and so that puts upside pressure due to the success of all these projects [indiscernible] all of that in the last two quarters. And you can go through the detail here. The big key here and everybody focused on the whole thing deep Great Canyon with the gross resources were initially 75 million barrels and now up to 280 million barrels because of the additional drilling and then the cash flow is going to get out of the Dorado King and KOQB area because of our seismic tie and the success we’ve had there is our Vito area, power discovery which is offset discovery to our victory area, very significant discovery for several reasons, number one obviously its large column of bore that is over extensive, a nice reservoir size, on top of that it is really helped us getting confidence and all the additional projects and the next when we have to drill deeply that we going to nearly move to after we finish our present logging operation at Parnell. And the next page or page 18, you see the overall picture of our assets. We want to focus on hosting deep by like in the Great Canyon Parnell is for us to two highlighted assets that we have. On page 19 the hosting facility, our hosting deep development we’re drilling on the southwest side you can see phase 1 and it is called the Subsi 1, 2 and 3 and then you see the phase 2 development wells in lighter blue and even lighter blue is the phase 3 development and as we go around from the initial three well development that we’ve planned that will add 15,000 barrels per day in 2016 that’s on track and expanding the drilling results could add up to 75,000 barrels a day to by 2020. So this project continue to drill out above the expectations and therefore its budget is going to be expanded. The hosting deep production profile on page 20 given representative if we talk about cash flows and timing for your modeling purposes but it’s a very significant project for the company going forward. On page 21 is our detailed area, Power Nap [ph] discovery the reason I’m seeing the picture you see up in the top left corner of detailed development discovery show operates Power Nap [ph] just at the East of that two red dots is another discovery these are net DOE exposure to Freeport McMoRan oil and gas. And you can see just to the south of Parnell, deep sweep oil to the very depth part of the basin which is kind of separated but the Parnell discovery and then we have our Sun project down for the south east which is 240 million barrel in that project and is about 384 million barrel. All in all, I’ll skip ravioli in detail, it is smaller but it is about a billion barrels of oil net in the company and this is the most significant long term play that the company has in its books today. You can see the extremely thick column at the Alan four stands upper and lower fence in our detail discovery well, it’s a great size and signature it takes all over the mini basin. So, when you pull up the page 22, you look at our plan going forward for the next 10 years. You can see production growing from various 130,000, 140,000 barrels to-date over 600,000 a day. The key about this line that we want to put in there is the estimated reserve, refresh ratio for next five years is 137% by any cost going forward $26 a barrel and $21 a barrel within your model is it all these assets are in hand most of these are all been discovered or have validation within the basin, all of our gas assets in Haynesville and Cretaceous as gas recovered later in this decade. A California assets, specific Green Canyon, the Vito Area, there is no additional exploration, there is no additional outside business acquisitions in this model. This is all what’s in hand. So, just following our playbook, we can increase production at least 3X through our company on the oil side. Now, work talking about right now internally and externally is timing because the assets are there, the equipment is there and so forth and the cost structure is there. When you look at our five year finding cost structure at $26 a barrel and just take our average LOE forecast is about 15 bucks a barrel, it's 18 right now, it's about 50 bucks going forward because our fixed assets have fixed costs and when you have more volumes to you dilute the per barrel cost. Now if you take 26 bucks and 15 bucks is about $41 a barrel and you add $5 corporate cost. You buy $46 a barrel all in cost for oil and gas business. In a $65 to $70 oil market we make a lot of money in this business. There is very little risk because of the risk we're taking and the way we de-risk it with the drill bit, it's very little risk from the execution standpoint because the equipment and platforms are in place. So we're very excited about that and we've been working all internally with everyone here at Freeport to figure out the best way to fund these assets going forward. On page 23, I just want to highlight two different ways to think about our business. #1, the current plan, which is what in our corporate projections of 2015, 2016 and 2017 production volumes and EBITDA's on the top right and then if we're able to bring in additional funding that would accelerate that business and get us up to a production level that would allow us to be self funding in a much faster level. The model is in the lower right hand corner, which is the growth plan assuming additional funding. And what happens here is because of all the wells we drill and so forth we're really talking about how fast we hook them up -- how fast we put the equipment in to bring that production on and so forth. So, for us we're going to be very stingy about it from the standpoint of funding. We've looked for funding sources in the first quarter. We found some that were wrenched in and anticipating or very expensive and we looked around that we found some others that make a lot more sense. And right now, the public sale or public equities for minority interest FMO&G is something that we're working on and we're going to probably have a decision on that here this quarter to where we file a document and getting registrations as Richard said for the summer and look at raise some money in the fall our JV monetization and/or divestitures. Divestitures are they help patch the hole but they don't solve the problems. So, the IPO alternative of Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas on page 24 abides that an alternative fund of -- way to fund the business, but the key thing we think it does is highlight the standalone value for oil and gas business. There is a big disconnect between the value of our oil and gas business within Freeport-McMoRan today and the public market perception is stand alone. I guess we have had more success than anybody with the drill bed in the last two years and it's caused more spending but it is also likely reflected in our equity. So the aspect of being able to get that visibility for the Freeport shareholder we think is an important part of it. FCX solely plans to maintain control in majority ownership of the business and the case study is obviously Freeport done as before the FCX IPO, we did it planes with planes exploration, we funded out of PXP – PLX and the best of our IPO that from ARCO in 1994 that really funded their deepwater discovery developments in 1994 when the deepwater was first showing up and which really is a big part of BP portfolio today. The timing might – it is early as late 15 or this market conditions stable we are going to be patient for the standpoint and we'll continue to assess other alternatives and have other discussions in other areas in the interim certainly from that standpoint. Richard, back to you to talk about the 2015 outlook?