Richard Adkerson
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Good morning, everyone. The first quarter for Freeport was really straightforward. We are pleased to report that we are on track with our plans that we discussed at our last earnings call and across the board our business is going in a normal fashion. As a result, we haven't made any significant changes to our operational outlook and our important initiatives that we have that we're working on these two years of transition at Grasberg are proceeding as scheduled and as planned. This is the first quarter of those two years. And as we look forward to the ramping up Grasberg to sustainable levels, it's going to be a good time for our company. A note, we just published our new annual report and it showcases our assets the strength and quality of our geographically diverse portfolio of mining assets and the inherent fundamental values that these assets provide. Going forward and looking forward we have a very clear strategy that we are confident will grow value for shareholders. The important accomplishment we achieved in recent years to strengthen our balance sheet to reach a resolution of our longstanding issues on our contract in Indonesia and providing some clear-cut long-range opportunity to operate in a stable fashion really position us to deliver on this commitment to build values for our shareholders. Our 2019 priorities as part of the strategy is listed on page 4 of the slide deck. Here at the company we are laser focused on executing these priorities during 2019 and are diverting any plans for major new capital investments or looking at M&A activity because we are confident that success -- if we are successful and we believe we will be in achieving these priorities that that's what's going to drive the future values of our company. In Indonesia, the ramp-up of the underground mines are going well proceeding on schedule. I'll cover other milestones later in the presentation. In the Americas, we're really focused now on productivity cost control and discipline across all of our operations. We're pleased with the success that Red Conger and his team are achieving. In that regard our Lone Star project is on schedule and it's going -- it's not a huge capital investment but it's a profitable one. And we continue really to be encouraged by exploratory drilling and analysis results for this asset, which we believe has the outlook of growing to a world-class resource. We continue to study, evaluate and rank potential future growth projects to establish long-term value opportunities for our company. But as I said, for the next couple years, we're in the study mode as opposed to the committing capital mode. The success on all these objectives combined with what we expect to be a positive future copper market environment, and that's a consensus across the industry will provide values for our shareholders. Turning to page 3, we list out the attributes of our company that have been consistent: leading copper producer, responsible operator, great set of long-lived assets that can be operated in an attractive cost, structure, the portfolio. It’s difficult to -- it would be difficult for anyone to replicate. We've got significant current production volumes, which we can continue by managing our existing sets of assets. I mentioned our potential future growth options. And we've got a proven track record for superior execution. Since acquiring Phelps Dodge 12 years ago, we've had success. We've managed major expansions of our assets. When the time was right, the expansion at Cerro Verde improves a prime example of that. But we also, in two phases built great mine in the Congo with Tenke Fungurume. We expanded Morenci. We expanded our Climax mine. And we've shown what we can do in terms of execution and building assets, and in operating assets. And we have a benefit for our company that's really a significant one. We operate all the mines that we have interest in. And that allows us to share expertise to find things that work in one place, and spread it across the company, and to be able to allocate resources people equipment, supply chain issues on a company-wide basis. With the steps, we've taken over the past three years, we are now financially strong. We'll get stronger. We are positive about the outlook of the copper business, and seen nothing in recent developments to change that view. And we have a clear strategy of building values for the shareholders. I previously referenced a slide on page four that talks about what we're going to be doing this year, and looking into next year. Focused on the transition at Grasberg in the Americas, productivity cost controls, and also in Eastern Arizona advancing the Lone Star project, and assessing long-term opportunities. And so, we're confident about what we're doing. Looking at an operations update in North America, we are making progress in this productivity cost control management. We're using advanced analytics. We started a project at our Bagdad mine as in effect a text case. It's been very successful in terms of using -- it's doing things that we always knew how to do, and we had a team to do it. What we're doing now is using data capabilities to measure things, and respond to them very quickly. You hear a lot about this across all industries. So this is not anything that's different, but applying it in a business like ours is not something that people intuitively think about. We brought in McKinsey and other outside experts to work with us. We're really encouraged by what's happening in Bagdad now. The next stop is going to be Morenci. But across the board, we're going to be using this big data analytics to help make our business better, reduce our costs, improve productivity. In Cerro -- in South America, the Cerro Verde mine continues just to excel. It's exceptional. The mill, which was originally designed to add to our 120,000 tons per day existing facility, 240,000 tons today is operating well over name play continues to have opportunities to further improve. And so, that has us focused on de-bottlenecking the rest of the business to take advantage of these processing facilities that we have. Our volumes were off in the first quarter in the Americas. The principal reason for that was at El Abra, the driest place in the world. I mean Atacama Desert this is at altitude moisture just doesn't get across the Andes to this part of the world. But in the second quarter, in a week's time -- in the first quarter, in a week's time, we had 10 years' worth of rain at this site. 10 years' worth of rain. It was a major flood event. We were out 35 days. The team responded very well to restore our operations. And now we're -- by mid-March, we're up and running again in a normal fashion. We also helped the people in the local community. It was an extraordinary event that had a big impact. We also had a sales impact, because we were pushing a turnaround at our Miami smelter in Arizona. It's part of our productivity where we're trying to extend the time before we started the turnaround. I think Red, it was 10 days or 15 days before we were going to shut down anyway. We had an event in the furnace, and that knocked that smelter out for a period of time in the first quarter. So you see there's a difference between our production numbers and our sales numbers, and that was because of the cut-off to the marketplace we had because of this event at the smelter. It's up and running again. All those volumes are going to be going through. It shows up in our unit cost numbers, because we had lower volumes, lower sales volumes. And so, otherwise our costs were pretty much in line with what we were looking for. In Indonesia, Grasberg, we're competing the final phases of the Grasberg open pit. Our plans call for that to happened midyear this year. We may have an opportunity to extend that. It's very high-grade material, but it's an issue of where we're focused on the long term. We're going to do this safely. And the underground ramp-up is proceeding as planned. So this is what's going on with us. On slide 6, we have these efficiency measures that we're taking through using data innovation. I mentioned the Bagdad team that we formed across our board using our metallurgists, our operators the process control team. We've got big data experts from our organization and from the outside. We're using this information technology to do very basic things about running the mill, making sure that we have, the right grind for the right ore dispatching in our mine operations. Just bringing all the basics together, with using information technology to make us a lot better, and we're really encouraged by the initial results at Bagdad. We have a 12% increase in mill throughput. We've increased recoveries. All this doing without much capital being put into it. So it's very profitable. As I said, we're now taking it to Morenci, and we'll be using our information that we have across the board. And if we are able to achieve, which we think we will be a 10% increase through productivity measures, that's equivalent to adding 20 million pounds of copper a year annually with virtually no capital. So we want to continue to use technology to standardize our systems and processes, and to help us achieve this kind of meaningful addition to our volume. Lone Star is really taking shape. Those of you, who follow us, know this is a long known resource. It's adjacent to our Safford mine, which was just being -- beginning production 12 years ago. It's original oxide deposit. Resources are being depleted. This is right across the mountain ridge from Morenci. And so we are now in the phase of mining a leach oxide deposit, that we will be able to process at our excess facilities at the adjacent Safford mine as that mine wraps down. So this allows us to profit from this oxide cover over a major sulfide resource that we're working to understand. And it's an $850 million project that we spent, just under $400 million of that by the end of the quarter. It's got very favorable economics. And will give us 200 million pounds a year of copper, with expansion opportunities for the oxide. So, we're doing that. But the really exciting thing long-run is this is serving as a stripping exercise over what we are seeing as a major sulfide resource. And we've shown some drill holes reserves that we're seeing. And we're beginning long-term plans about how we would develop that resource. It would be a major mill investment. But, literally as we look at this it has the potential of being another Morenci which is the flagship mine of our operations -- or the industry's operations in North America. We're really excited about it. I mentioned that Cerro Verde with this outperformance by the mill that we're having. You can see with the 360,000 tons nameplate, we're operating well above that. Indications are we can continue to do that. And so that means we're processing 15% more ore than originally designed. And now we're looking about how to feed the mill, how to make the movement from the mine to mill more efficient, but also how to attack the mine in a way to get more ore to it. So, we began this process just three years ago early 2016 after a $4.5 billion $5 billion expansion project that was completed at the end of 2015 going into 2016. So we're three years into it. It's improving debottlenecking. It's a great asset. And we're real proud of it. So, PT-FI underground transition. How long we've been looking for this. It was something for me. My first trip to the job site was -- in Papua was in the first quarter of 1988 when we were just drilling the original drill holes. Now we're seeing that pit being completed major activity there. And now, going forward, just by the end of the year we'll be totally underground with the Grasberg Block Cave which is the same ore body extending beneath the open pit. It's got about $1 billion tons of reserves at 1% copper and 0.72 grams per ton gold on average. As we've been working in recent years on all these matters we've been working with an Indonesia and going through all the issues there Mark Johnson and his team have really done a great job in investing in the infrastructure to get us in place to kick this mine off as we're doing right now. So we are -- we're making great progress in the first quarter. We've been focused at the Grasberg Block Cave on expanding the cave and opening drawbells. We had 11 drawbells opened by the end of the first quarter. One was blasted in December and 10 in the quarter. We're five drawbells ahead of schedule. Undercutting of the new face in that mine is proceeding, this is really two mines in 1, three faces going on in those two mines and this is ore that we've been mining now for 30 years. So it's the same ore. We know the chemistry of it. We don't expect any issues associated with processing and so forth. The adjacent mine, which is a separate mineralization feature altogether is the Deep MLZ mine. This is the latest deepest extension of mining in a Block Cave underground at Freeport began in the early 1980s. And after our work in the first quarter we're on target for development against a forecast to get this mine up to stream. It's been delayed because we encountered seismic events. In response to that, we -- our team which is very experienced and we brought a team of global experts into play have designed a program of using hydraulic fracking which has been used in South America, but not in our operations previously to precondition this harder than expected rock, so that we can promulgate caving in a normal fashion. To date, we've hydro fracked, 14 holes nine from the DOZ truck level and five from the undercut level. The seismic response to this has been positive. And so we are very encouraged about it. It's working so well that we are likely to build this into an ongoing feature in mining the Deep MLZ mine. Now, we are really taking this mine in two faces. There's a production block 2 which we are opening up the cave area to the west of the current cave. This provides a second separate working face. It will grow the hydraulic radius faster. And we'll be in better shape. And by doing this we're now on track of meeting our targets for ramping up this to meet our original targets. So, all of this is going well. We've got the really significant reserves there of these two mines. And we're on track to continue to achieve what we've set out to achieve and meet our plan. On page 10 -- slide 10, we have the ramp-up of the underground. You can see the impact of completing mining in the open pit in 2019. Mark and his guys are looking at perhaps getting a bit more out of the pit, but as I said, our focus is going to be how can we, get back up to sustainable levels on our timeframe. So after two years of ore volumes we will begin ramping up. And you can see how that works with the Grasberg Block Cave beginning this year and then basically doubling every year up to 130,000 tons a day. And that will be our primary asset going beyond 2023. The Deep MLZ mine is also ramping up going from 27,000 tons per day in the mine in 2020 to almost 60,000, 80,000 and long-term 80,000. So, we're on track to get these sustainable volumes coming out of these mines, feeding our mill at over 200,000 tons per day which is a major accomplishment in terms of having large-scale underground mining. And we're on track to get it done. There's a lot of talk about copper markets. As usual we were down in CESCO, talked with everybody down there. So, we have seen nothing to change our fundamental view about, the positive outlook from a fundamental standpoint. When you look at the long-term reduced percentage growth in China, but the sheer amount of copper that would be required for that economy with the mature markets our current business in the United States has been strong. Over the past couple of years we supply about one-third of the downstream copper to the U.S. market from our mines in the U.S. and it's really, really tight. But longer-range, you're looking at what's the emerging markets are going to require. You certainly see that in Indonesia. I mean, I spent a lot of time in Jakarta and just watching the cranes and seeing the growth in that economy and that's true all across Southeast Asia into Latin America and ultimately Eastern Europe and Africa. So it's a -- we feel very confident about the fundamentals of copper it's qualities and its need for the world's economy. Things that will add to it over time in terms of the growing electrification of the world, the use of alternative energy, electronics and everything we do electric vehicles and so forth, we feel very good about the demand for copper and the project pipeline remains thin. And we know as an experienced operator what it takes to develop new projects. And we also know that others in the industry are going to share our disciplined approach to what we do going forward. So we believe that a significant long-term structural deficit remains in place and that our assets and their ability to address this deficit we're going to create great values for our shareholder. For the year, we are looking at producing 3.3 billion pounds of copper 800 million ounces of gold, just under 800 million ounces of gold -- 800,000 ounces of gold and just under 100 million pounds of molybdenum. Site production costs are going to be higher than the long-term sustainable amounts because of lower volumes with the Grasberg transition. And our operating cash costs depending on the price of copper will come close to funding our CapEx over these two years. And our current dividend may fall a bit short again depending on the price of copper. But the company is financially strong and certainly has the financial flexibility to deal with that. And then coming are details for our production coming out of the two years and seeing the significant increase in copper and gold sales as we ramp up the Grasberg Block Cave and the Deep MLZ will provide substantial cash flows and that's shown on slide 14 where we have -- where we show the cash flows for the transition year of 2020 and averages for the next two years. You can see at $3 copper, it goes from just over $4 billion to $7.5 billion and if copper prices are higher that delta gets much higher. So we're set up to have a situation of really benefiting from the ramp-up in underground and Grasberg having potentially good copper markets. We're focused on keeping a strong balance sheet. We should have opportunities to further reduce our debt in the future. We're going to be disciplined about investments. For the time being, we'll maintain our current dividend. The board is looking forward to days in the future when we can increase it and believe that we're real well positioned. It's been a good quarter and we're going to be continued focused on execution. So with that, we will open the line up for your questions and look forward to hearing them.