Earnings Labs

Ferrovial SE (FER)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 2, 2019

$67.89

-0.03%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

A - Unidentified Company Representative

Operator

[Operator Instructions] So the first question, which was sent via e-mail, came from Jenny Ping from Citigroup. Question is, would you be able to provide an update on where you are on the disposal of the Services business. The press is talking about combining bids from 2 bidders. What is the time line? And when can we expect to hear on the deal and the proceeds? Ernesto López Mozo: Thank you, Jenny, for the question. We are progressing with discussions. We won't get into details regarding timing, and we are in the kind of 12-month period we were giving ourselves for this. Well, it's advancing well, but I cannot give you any specific date, okay?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Second question, can you also confirm that you wrote off further assets in the book value of Services? If so, what is the amount of the write-off? Ernesto López Mozo: As I mentioned, I mean, book value was going up, especially with the fact that you don't amortize the assets with IFRS 5. So yes, we took a €170 million hit, but I cannot give more specifics at this time because we are negotiating with bidders, and this could be sensitive information.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And lastly, regarding Heathrow, what do you see is an appropriate level of return for H7? The 2.6% talked about by the CAA's consultant, is that sufficient in your view? Ernesto López Mozo: I won't comment on the specific level for the return here because also there's different moving pieces, and the risk of the asset now is very different with all the construction involved and new capacity, right? So I mean, things will be discussed. We won't be providing guidance what we see as sufficient now because also the regulatory building blocks are moving.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, Ernesto. Next set of questions come from Guillermo Fernández-Gao from Kepler Cheuvreux. The question is on the services divestment. How material would be the business you would potentially retain in U.K. PFIs in terms of EBITDA and net debt if they are globally consolidated? Ernesto López Mozo: I cannot provide you much color here because it's being discussed. And it will be clear if - when we have our transaction. So I cannot give deals now, but it will be fully explained upon reaching an agreement.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, Ernesto. The next set of questions come from Marcin Wojtal in Bank of America. The first question would be, can you comment on the pipeline for Cintra and specifically on the Maryland Congestion Relief Program? When do you expect the first awards from this program? And what is the size of the potential investment for Cintra? Francisco Clemente Sánchez: Yes. Well, this is Paco Clemente speaking. The first Maryland project that we are expecting is the I-270 South Maryland. We expect that the request for qualification will be launched at the year-end, and the request for proposal during 2020. And the amount of investment is roughly €2.6 billion, and the equity that could be potentially injected by Cintra will be around €375 million. Ernesto López Mozo: Also, I missed a part of the prior answer - sorry, question. Sorry about that. They were talking if PFIs were located in the U.K. Well, I was talking about other geographies, but as I said, we cannot be specific now. I mean, it's early stages.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Third question also from Marcin. Do you currently expect the Construction division to be profitable at EBIT level in 2020? Ernesto López Mozo: We are not providing guidance for 2020. We will have more information on the close-of-year conference call in February.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The next set of questions come from Stephanie D'Ath in RBC. On the 407ETR, on the stake increase, what is the update on the legal procedure? Francisco Clemente Sánchez: Well, again, I think it's public that Cintra has made an appeal of the - on the process. We do not expect any news up to the hearing next year.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Could you please comment on the joint bid with SNCF for a concession to operate one of Spain's high-speed rail trains? Ernesto López Mozo: Okay. We have analyzed this opportunity. We haven't made a decision yet if we'll go for this business, still analyzing that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Could you comment on the progress of discussions with airlines to shift the agreement-based contract away from regulated asset base? Ernesto López Mozo: There is - I mean the possibility of that happening, there's no open negotiation at the moment. Still the - but the discussions regarding expansion are more about providing the initial business plan and the regulator - on the Heathrow side and the regulator providing building blocks for the regulatory period. So there's no discussions really at this point in time, but I guess that all parties remain open.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And the last question from Stephanie regarding Heathrow and the potential - potentially improving dividends in full year 2019. What is the sustainability of this given runway 3 investments ahead? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, we are not discussing future dividends from the asset. The asset has healthy 2-runway operations and could be providing dividends. So money here is quite fungible and - as you probably are suggesting. So these dividends could be reinvested. It would depend on the business case. And as I said, the business case will be more clear to the market at the end of this year and more at the end of 2020.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, Ernesto. The next set of questions come from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays. Please, could you provide an update on Managed Lanes dividend? When do you expect NTE and LBJ to pay their first dividend? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, NTE at the end of 2019 and LBJ at the end of 2020. This should be their first dividend.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

What about the refinancing potential for the Managed Lanes? Could you provide an idea of the timing and potential benefits of the refinancing? Francisco Clemente Sánchez: Well, in regards of NTE, we have a call date at the year-end this year, and we are expecting that we will be able to reach financial close before that date. And in regards of LBJ, the call date is scheduled mid-next year. We - again, we expect that we will be refinancing at least that in the second half of next year.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And the last question from Nabil. Could you provide a guidance for net cash position by year-end? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, we usually don't provide guidance before year-end, when we talk about the building blocks that could compose this end of cash position, right? So we should be getting the sale proceeds from Ausol, also the dividend from NTE. And then construction will depend on the - getting some advanced payments on some projects that are closing in this last part of the year. Also at the end of the year, we should see cash improvements in Amey and broader spectrum that are usually seasonal. So we should see some seasonal effect, probably not as strong and favorable as other years, but we have these other impacts that should help. So aside the building blocks, we don't provide a specific guidance, but it looks like improving this current level for sure.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, Ernesto. The next question comes from Ellen Elberfeld from Duff & Phelps Investment Management. How will proceeds of Services sale be spent? Will it be used to fund an equity injection into Heathrow to help fund the expansion CapEx? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, we don't have a different guidance here what we said since the results conference call in February. We are looking to invest in infrastructure that could be attractive. We could also do shareholder remuneration. So those are the main uses. Of course, Heathrow expansion should be an interesting project. And yes, we could be looking at that. As I said, Heathrow itself is capable of generating dividends. But yes, it could be a possibility to inject in Heathrow. But this will be happening later on. I mean, start of construction probably is two years ahead easily.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The next question comes from Jacopo Di Nardo from Makuria. I just wanted to understand what the EBITDA is on the I-77 and tolls this quarter. Francisco Clemente Sánchez: For this quarter, the total revenue of the I-77 is €8.4 million. And out of them, we got EBITDA of - and OpEx is 42%, so the EBITDA is €50 million, no? Ernesto López Mozo: Okay. So I mean, just to provide the exact breakdown, revenues are $20 million, of which tolls are $3 million. The - then there's $17 million from liquidated damages. This is something that Cintra is charging the construction JV for delays and is supposed to replace toll and revenues, right? And then there's also - I mean EBITDA is stable because there's some capitalization of costs due to construction still going on, and the capitalization of costs is - I mean the exact number of capitalized cost is $5 million, okay? So that is helping to improve the EBITDA margin, this capitalization of the asset.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you very much, Ernesto. The next question comes from Jose Manuel Arroyas from Santander. Weather conditions were particularly bad in Dallas-Fort Worth in the third quarter of 2019 with heavy rain. Were the Managed Lanes there hurt by the weather? Ernesto López Mozo: No, not really. We cannot say that there was an underperformance due to weather in the Managed Lanes.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And the last question from Jose Manuel. The cost of funding from NTE and LBJ carries very high coupons, close to 5.3%, and the assets are performing well. Is there an opportunity to refinance these assets anytime soon? If so, when? And have you received any quote thus far? Francisco Clemente Sánchez: As I said, we are expecting that we - at least we will be refinancing the path in NTA at the year-end, maybe TC as well will be refinanced. We will see. And in regards of the LBJ, again, we will try to refinance once the call date will elapse, which is next June 2020. And in both cases, we will expect to reduce substantially the cost of funds of both projects.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And a follow-up question also from Jose Manuel. You will receive the first-ever dividend from NTE. The asset is outperforming your business plan by about 20%. Is there a potential for higher dividend than the $125 million you guided for earlier? Ernesto López Mozo: I mean, you're right, and - Jose Manuel. And the asset is performing better. So there's more excess cash. Yes, it could be a higher dividend, but maybe it spills into early 2020. So I mean, we'll get more clarity here during the end of this quarter. But yes, definitely, the expectation is that either this year or between this year and 2020, we should have a better performance.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The following question comes from Charles Maynadier from Kempen. The 407ETR dividend growth highlights again that your forecasts were too conservative. When could we expect an update on the toll roads valuation, including models, or at least some more visibility on NTE 35 W and the I-77? Ernesto López Mozo: We are debating this, in particular, on the NTE 35 West, you will start seeing construction in the north. And the I-77 still has to open, right? So given these facts, and we usually wait a little bit to see more the performance of the asset before updating. I mean, we won't be doing it now. So we are debating internal. We'll keep you posted.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The following question comes from Elodie Rall from JPMorgan. Can you give us your view regarding 2020 construction margin? Ernesto López Mozo: I already took this on a prior question. I mean, we'll probably talk about this in February with the year-end results of 2019.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

On the 3C portion of the 35 W, what kind of pricing are you expecting? Would it be similar to the other Managed Lanes? Or is there better potential? Ernesto López Mozo: We think it's quite similar, but it will have to open. I mean we think it's quite similar because there's a lot of commercial and industrial activity to the north. As I mentioned in the presentation, there's the Alliance Airport over there. So there's no reason to expect a different mix in terms of traffic, but it's early to tell.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

And finally, from Elodie on Heathrow. Can you give a bit of color on the moving parts below EBITDA as the equity contribution is negative for €9 million? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, as I mentioned before, this has been affected mainly by the impact on the hedge on inflation, right? At the close of September, phased-in occur with very high inflation expectations given that the likelihood that the market was attaching to a no-deal Brexit was quite high. That has reverted now, right? So we could see, basically, in our accounts an improvement, given the curve today. That could be around €80 million improvement, right? So it's based on this. And as I said, it is an economic hedge, and it will depend on how the Brexit saga evolves. I mean a deal Brexit should bring this kind of inflation expectations, a no-deal would have the same impact that we've seen at the end of September.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The next question comes from Jean-Charles Belvo from INOCAP. Is the construction of I-66 going according to plan? When do you expect it to be launched? Ernesto López Mozo: It's going according to plan, and the opening is expected in 2022. It's a big project. That's our expectation now. We will keep updating you on this project given the magnitude. But right now, our expectation is 2022.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The next question comes from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. In Construction, you continued to rack up €20 million to €30 million of losses per quarter at Ferrovial Agroman. Something to continue into the fourth quarter of the year? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, as I mentioned in the prior call and in the explanation this year, it would depend - sorry, this call, it will depend on the signing off of clients to claims that we believe we are due by contract, right? So if they keep coming, it could improve. If not, we could see this similar situation. So we'll keep you updated. No reason to change the outlook for year-end at this point in time.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you. The following question comes from Robert Crimes from Insight. Why did you pay the special dividend at 407ETR? Is there a potential to be repeated in 2020? Francisco Clemente Sánchez: Yes. This is Paco, again. Robert, as you know, in the 407, since 2017, we have been updating, reviewing and revising the final dividend at the year-end each year. We did it in 2017, '18, and we did also this year. It depends how the performance of the concession has been evolved during the rest of the year. So it could be or could be not.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

The following question comes from Bruno Da Silva from CaixaBank. Could you please give the contribution of discontinued activities to the net cash position of September 2019? Ernesto López Mozo: The net cash position of the discontinued activities is €17 million at the end of September.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

On Construction on Ferrovial Agroman, is there any reason to believe of a risk of a new provision going forward? Ernesto López Mozo: There is no change from the expectations we've had, right? So here, we'll keep updating. Things are evolving along our expectations for the time being in construction. Francisco Clemente Sánchez: Well, I think we've taken care of all the questions. There were more questions on details regarding Services. As I mentioned, we cannot provide at this point on time, but we expect to be providing in the near future. So thanks for attending the call. Ricardo Jiménez: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.