Earnings Labs

Ferguson plc (FERG)

Q4 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, Sep 29, 2020

$253.58

-1.78%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.64%

1 Week

-2.37%

1 Month

-1.04%

vs S&P

-0.32%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ferguson Full Year Results Call to 2020. My name is Adam and I'll be the operator for the call today. [Operator Instructions] I have the pleasure of handing the call over to Mr. Kevin Murphy, the Group Chief Executive of Ferguson. If you could like to go ahead, please Kevin.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thank you and good morning, and welcome to this 2020 full year results conference call. You've got Mike and I presenting this morning. And I’m also very pleased that Bill Brundage is with us. I'm sure you will have seen from a press release this morning that bill will be taking over from Mike as our CFO in early November. I'm really delighted to introduce Bill. And I'm very pleased that we've been able to orchestrate such a smooth handover between Mike and Bill. Bill's a hugely talented executive that I've had the privilege to work with for many years at Ferguson, including the last three years when he was the CFO of Ferguson Enterprises. He's a safe pair of hands. He knows this business inside now. He's been shadowing Mike through our year-end process in anticipation of the handover. Bill will be joining us for the investor roadshows over the next couple of weeks, and I look very forward to introducing him to as many of you as possible. It is, of course, also Mike Powell’s final results as Ferguson’s CFO, and I'd like to thank Mike for his significant contribution to Ferguson over the last three and a half years. We wish him every success in his new role as he takes over as Mondi’s CFO later this year. I'm personally grateful to Mike for all of his support. And all his hard work has been critical in the company's transformation over the last several years to focus the business on its North American markets. If I turn to today's agenda, I'll kick things off and give you the highlights and also say a few words about how we're adjusting to the operating environment as COVID-19 started to impact our business during our fiscal third quarter. Mike will…

Mike Powell

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thanks, Kevin. And good morning, good afternoon to everybody. I'm pleased to present the group's full year results, which clearly show we had a good finish to our financial year. Just before we get into them, it's worth reminding ourselves that the ongoing operations that I refer to throughout includes the U.S., Canada, and Group costs whilst the UK operating business is within non-ongoing operations. [I will also] refer in the main to numbers excluding IFRS 16, just to aid understanding. Ongoing revenues in the year were up 2%, and we held gross margins reflecting the value we deliver to our customers, alongside which we tightly managed our cost base, which altogether means trading profit, growth continues to outpace revenue growth. Ongoing online trading profit of nearly 1.6 billion was up 63 million with trading margins progressing 20 basis points to 8%. Headline EPS declined 1.1%, principally due to the higher effective tax rate from previously advised tax reform. And taking into account the Group's prospects and financial position we’re pleased to propose a final dividend of [$2.082] in-line with last year and this effectively reinstates the previously withdrawn interim dividend, and reflects our confidence in the business going forward. As you'll also see later, cash generation has again been excellent this year, and the balance sheet remains very strong with leverage of [0.6x]. So moving to revenue and trading profit growth, I've expanded on this chart, the revenue growth of 2% and the profit growth of 4.1% for the Group that I have just talked about, and I have broken it down into its component parts. Organically, you can see the profit growth of 2% exceeded the flattish revenue, and this is the part of the results that I'm really most pleased about, as we made quick decisions, and…

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thank you very much Mike. Much appreciated. Let's move on to strategy. Our strategy is consistent with the direction of travel in recent years. We will constantly evolve our approach over time and our strategic framework is our roadmap for developing our business. Overall, we want to ensure that we drive initiatives to improve our relationship with our customers, our suppliers, and most importantly, our associates. We will operate with a short-term and long-term focus not sacrificing the short for the long or the long for the short; we can and will do both. We will continue to focus on driving all our resources and knowledge to make our customers projects better because they dealt with our company. This is the essence of Ferguson and we will provide the best service in our industry based on our foundation of attracting, developing, and retaining the best associates. We’ll be our customers trusted supplier, giving them unrivaled choice of product sourcing the leading brands in all our categories, including our growing portfolio of high quality own brands. We will drive scale in our business. So, we can make our customers more successful by ensuring they have access to products and advice where and when they need, offering a true omnichannel experience. So, doing business with us is as frictionless as possible. We'll use technology to make our business more productive, and equip our associates with tools to drive efficiency, while saving time for the customer. All the while, never being afraid to experiment or to innovate. As we proceed this morning, I'll hopefully give you a sense of some of the areas we're driving as we continue to execute this strategy. We see ourselves as partners to our customers to make their projects more successful. Distribution remains a core competency, and we…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, gentlemen. [Operator Instructions] We have our first question and it comes from Will Jones of Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please.

Will Jones

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thank you. I've got three, if I could please. The first was, that’s actually a two-part question just around the cost saving measures for the year ahead. [Indiscernible] just the – roughly 5% headcount cuts in the U.S. would still be compared with…

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Will, we're having trouble hearing you. Could you could you speak up just a touch.

Will Jones

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yes. Is that better.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

A bit, yes.

Will Jones

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yeah, sorry. I will. Sorry. I'll speak a little louder. Apologies. Yes. The first was just around the cost savings and checking that the 5% headcount cuts in the U.S. is compatible with small revenue growth, which is what I guess you might see for the current year, would you have to kind of bring back on some of those heads if trends remained as they are? And linked to that as well, the branch closures, I think Mike's comments suggested that you would relocate, reconsolidate into better locations, can we assume from that you don't expect much of any revenue loss from the branch closures, but just to check that because [78] [ph] is a really big number? Second question was just around gross margins, perhaps just for the year, and as you could give us a feel for what you see [indiscernible] on the business, I guess things like make own label, cost to serve, just how it might shape up in totality? And actually the last one was just on strategy, just referring back to your slide a couple of early on in the presentation around the market shares and the market sizes. I think HVAC is an interesting one, where you've got around a 4% share, it's one of your biggest total markets though in size, and possibly a COVID beneficiary. I just wondered if that is a market where you see good incremental opportunities. I appreciate it's quite dependent on manufacturer relationships there, but is that one of your kind of verticals, you could push on maybe in the next couple of years? Thank you.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Perfect. Thank you, Will. We did have some trouble hearing you, but I think I got the gist of it. This is Kevin, and I'll maybe take the first crack at the three questions. And then Mike and Bill please fill in. From a cost headcount versus growth, as Mike indicated, we feel like we took a much better approach to what cost control and disciplines look like versus 2008, 2009. So, depending on the market, and it was very local, we approach this with a variety of different actions from furlough, layoff, hours reduction, temporary workforce, and then reduction in force, to position ourselves, yes, for what we were going through during lockdown, but much more importantly, for what was going to face us as we went into Q1 and beyond. And so, we've already seen as markets have begun to recover, and certain markets have gotten better that costs continue to put back into the system. Obviously, through things like an increase in hours work, what over time looks like in that system. The thing I'm most pleased with is the flexible nature of which we've been able to preserve the intellectual capital of this business to make sure that we can continue to outpace growth as markets are supportive, and that agility to make sure that we can address the cost base if markets are more challenging. And from a branch closer perspective, indicated that many of these were small branches. Yes, small, very few associates in branch. And so from a revenue perspective, we expect to capture and retain 100% of the revenue of those locations as we utilize other locations in those specific market areas. From a gross margin perspective, we look at a good balance to the year ahead. Last year, we saw a…

Mike Powell

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yeah, Kevin, listen, thank you. Well, given your question really relates to good sort of good cost in Q4, and what about the future, probably be a little rich of me to comment about the future, given that Bill is on the line. So Bill, why don't I hand over to you and introduce you to Will and the team?

Bill Brundage

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yeah, great. Thanks Mike. First of all, let me just say how honored and excited I am to step into the role. Look forward to meeting many of you virtually over the next couple of weeks, and then hopefully soon in person when appropriate. Look, to Kevin's point from a cost perspective, as we were going through the lockdowns, we did first flex really hard on the temporary items and actions. At one point we had about 2,500 people that were on temporary furloughs or temporary layoffs. Recall the revenues were down about 9% in April. Clearly, we then shifted focus towards the future, setting up the cost base for certainly an uncertain environment, but the revenue base that we expected to be operating in coming out of the initial lockdown phase, that's where we took the action on the 5% of heads in the U.S. To Kevin's point, revenue was a bit better than we expected coming through Q4, most of those temporary actions are now brought back from a cost perspective. Because of those actions, and because of slightly better revenue, we certainly had a good solid Q4, certainly from a flow through perspective and a profit flow through perspective. As we manage into Q1 and into this fiscal year, as we look forward, you could expect some of that cost base to come back if revenue exceeds those expectations. But these are things that we manage day-in, day-out, month-in, month-out very closely across the organization. Maybe just to put it in perspective that the 1,400 people that we reduced from the organization, remember we've got about 1,400 locations. So that's about an average of one per location. So, these are very tactical decisions that we make day-in day-out, and we'll be very cautious as we move forward into the new fiscal year.

Will Jones

Analyst · Redburn Partners. Will, if you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thanks, Bill. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Priyal Woolf of Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please.

Priyal Woolf

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. Can you hear me, okay?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

We can Priyal. Thank you.

Priyal Woolf

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Okay, brilliant. So, I've got three questions. The first one is just on current trading. So, obviously in the U.S., you said, you're back to organic growth since August, can I just double check that this does mean your back to organic growth in your core blended branches division as well? Or is this more just a function of really strong growth in some of the smaller units like e-business? Second question is just on M&A, I know you said you've got a pretty decent pipeline, but has this pipeline improved through COVID? Are there more sort of distressed assets out there that you could pick up? And then the last one is just a [indiscernible] says that you will go back to shareholders in due course, in terms of approval for that primary U.S. listing? Can I just push you in terms of, you know a tighter timeframe in terms of that? Thank you very much.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Thank you, Priyal. In terms of current trading, as we indicated, we're really pleased with the way in which we've had sequential recovery from the springtime through the close of the fiscal year and into Q1. I'll let Bill comment on where we sit in terms of blended versus the rest of the businesses, but generally speaking, we're pretty pleased. If you look at the different pressure points that we have on the business from an order channel perspective, our residential trade business, our builder business and showroom business performing quite well, commercial a bit more challenged, and so that that gives us a pretty nice balance actually for what we had expectations. In terms of the pipeline for M&A, we don't see distressed assets out there. I think we've said before, Mike said it very well on past calls that our local competition runs their business quite well from a cash perspective, and can really, I use the words hunker down to take and see themselves through a challenging period. I do believe, though, as we go through COVID and beyond the investments necessary for foundational technology for what an omnichannel experience looks like, for the tools that are necessary to drive this business, I do think will create opportunities for us to acquire businesses that have great local relationships, that we can plug together with that technology, with that supply chain, with that breadth and depth of product offering to make them more successful. So that's what I'm most bullish about in terms of bolt-on M&A as we look forward. And then from a second listing onto a primary, we've got a lot of work that we need to do right now. And so when we use language, like in due course, it really is to reflect the fact that we got work to do around SEC, Sarbanes-Oxley, but most importantly we've got work to do to run this business appropriately through a challenging environment. And so, we're not going to get ahead of ourselves. We have that view of the future, and the board has stated that publicly, but we first need to set up that and stand up that secondary listing, run the business appropriate to really uncertain markets and continue to deliver. So, that's where we are. Maybe, Bill, you want to comment a little bit more on Blended and eBusiness?

Bill Brundage

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Yeah, so blended, getting back about flattish, I would say as we entered into the first quarter, and then the strength, as Kevin mentioned, from an HVAC perspective from a Waterworks perspective performing very well delivering on balance that low single digit growth.

Priyal Woolf

Analyst · Jefferies. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have another question. This one comes from Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Hi, thank you for taking my questions today. And I'll just hand the questions out individually after answering them. The first area I want to focus on is on plumbing, and this is really feedback that we've received over the past two to three months. And it’s from our U.S. contacts that are pointing toward an increase and a pretty meaningful one for demand for Commercial Plumbing products. So this would include, mobile hand washing stations and water filtration systems. And they did – this is a change in trend line for commercial demand, versus more DIY demand, and calendar Q2, could you clarify what you're seeing in the field for commercial, particularly against the backdrop of what could be perhaps the biggest non-discretionary remodel that we're seeing in public spaces? Thank you.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Okay, thank you, Kathryn, very much appreciate it. From a commercial demand perspective, and you're right, there are different ways of working, there are going to be different demands on what commercial space should look like, and what those retrofits could look like, you mentioned a few of them. The other area that we're seeing are quite frankly, very simple retrofits, small retrofits on indoor air quality, filtration and the like. And we are taking advantage of that today. Although it's not material in terms of what the overall revenue impact is at this time. I think more broadly, from a commercial perspective, what we're seeing is, there's certainly an effect out there as we look at multi-trade commercial development and the length of time for a project, making sure social distancing is in place, making sure that the spacing out of trades is done, it'll lengthen the time of a construction project to a certain degree, but we're pleasantly surprised with the lack of cancellation of projects or pausing of projects that we're seeing across the bulk of our business, although we remain cautious, because we certainly know that there's going to be pressure on bidding activity and funding for projects that may have been [previously in the pipeline] around areas like hospitality, office retail and the like. But as we've discussed, the need for data centers, the need for distribution capacity, certain education, and health care assets, although not as much are really – we're really bullish from that perspective. So, we're more cautious on the commercial market, but pleasantly surprised as to what we're seeing across the nation thus far.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

And tagging along that with HVAC, we see no – a lot of opportunities with HVAC based on our primary research as there is increased focus on airflow at public spaces. I take it from your prepared commentary you're seeing more positive trends right now on the residential side, what types of conversations are you having with commercial, as buildings are being reconstructed to the face it post-COVID world?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yeah, the bulk of our HVAC business is in fact residential, most of our commercial work is in the light commercial area, although from a VRF perspective, we are engaged in the larger commercial market. And then certainly, we have a large mechanical commercial business on the plumbing side of our world that has, you know, some impact from an HVAC perspective. I think residentially we're seeing some pent-up demand, as well as good impact of residential new construction. The biggest issue right now candidly from an HVAC perspective is just making sure that we've got good access to product. If you think about a perfect storm for our business in HVAC the pandemic hit about the time that typically distribution builds up some inventory levels and manufacturers are ready for the oncoming summer season, and so there was a bit of disruption and dislocation there. And so making sure that proper access to product and leveraging our supply chain and making sure that we can take care of customers on the residential side is very important. And then as we talked about, from an indoor air quality perspective, we think it's – call it roughly a $10 billion opportunity potentially, for us, as we move forward across residential and commercial. It's a big market; we're just now starting to analyze what we think our role can be, but that business is growing rapidly for us right now off of a fairly low base.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Then following up on your U.S. margins, the way we looked at it for Q4, your trading profit margins expanded over 100 basis points, despite a pre-challenge top line as you're managing through the quarantine and coming out of that, you have made some comments on just the flexibility to model, but what we'd like to better understand is how much more is one-time in nature? And how much structural cost you've been able to take out? And also clarify what is any mix impacted margins in the quarter?

Bill Brundage

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yeah, Kathryn it’s Bill. So, let me jump in on that. So, first off from a structural cost standpoint, I think you should think back to the exceptional charges that Mike outlined that's the real go forward take out of ongoing heads from a labor perspective as well as the consolidation of those 70 branches. Again, on those 70 branches, about half of those were physically closed by the end of the quarter. The other half are going to come through principally in Q1. And that really gets that a bulk of our cost base, you know, 60% roughly of our cost basis in labor, another 15% is in infrastructure cost. If you go back to your comment, though, on the trading margins, you're correct, certainly in the U.S. at about a 10% trading margin in Q4. Again, back to my earlier comments, very pleased with that result, most of those temporary actions that we took, again, the 2,500 people that were temporarily furloughed or laid off, those 2,500 are now back. The over time that we reduced significantly in Q4, part of that is back and that's where we will remain very cautious as we move forward to manage that over time, as well as the permanent ongoing headcount up or down depending on the volumes that we see.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Okay, final question goes into the bucket of, it seems conservative. First on the top line guidance for flattish, maybe some puts and takes based on that outlook? And then second, ending the fiscal year with pretty incredibly low leverage at 0.6x, [what shall we] read into this and how should we think about growth initiatives going forward? Thank you again for answering my questions today.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Maybe I'll take a first cut. Bill, Mike jump in. On balance, we see some green shoots and are positive around the residential side of the business. As you think about new construction residential, we are positive about single family new construction, not the least of which is what you see in a COVID environment and the desire for people potentially to want single family construction, expanding of the commutable distance, given the nature of remote work and the acceptance of remote work, low interest rates, pent-up demand, and then obviously, from a starts perspective seeing 1.4, and you know, plus two on that is very positive. We also see some positive around home improvement as you look at LIRA being plus two. So, even if you take mid-single digit positive from a residential perspective, I think that offset starts to look as you get to the commercial side of the world and looking at what ABI looks like below 50 for six months and what we're seeing from an overall project funding perspective and the uncertainty around the commercial market. And then, industrial remains a bit challenging, you know, plant shutdowns in our PVF business getting in there and doing maintenance repair and operations inside those plants still remains challenging, oil and natural gas, and the like. And then, the civil markets, when you look at the funding levels for local and municipal government and what that might mean to the public works construction of our civil markets. So, [when] we take all of that together and balance it out, you know our Fire & Fabrication business as part of that commercial market. On balance, what we get to is a roughly flat market. That said, those numbers are changing fairly quickly as you look at a COVID world and I think that there's still enough uncertainty out there. Are we pleased with what we've been able to produce from a revenue standpoint [and outperformance]? Absolutely. Will we continue to drive for that? Absolutely. But there's just a fair amount of uncertainty as we go into the latter part of our first quarter and really the rest of the fiscal 2021. In terms of that low leverage ratio, we think it's a prudent place to be, given that uncertainty in the market and the strength of our balance sheet is a very positive thing for us, especially as we look to get back into good solid bolt-on M&A, and again, trading through challenging markets, where [indiscernible] from a U.S. perspective, we don't even have consistency in young people going back to school. And so, what are we going to see from a virus perspective? Maintaining that conservative position is prudent at this time and we're pretty pleased with where we are.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thank you.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Thompson Research Group. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thanks, Kathryn.

Operator

Operator

We have our next question. This question comes from Keith Hughes of Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes, thank you. Kevin, in the prepared statement, you had discussed future initiatives and getting closer still serving your contractor.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Hi, Keith. I'm sorry. Could you speak up just a touch? We're having trouble, Keith.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes. All right. Is that better?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes. Thank you.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Is that better? Yes, okay. So my question is, Kevin, in your prepared statements, you had discussed getting closer to the, you know, in-use customers still serving the contractor, but getting closer to the end-use customer, which has always been part of the commercial world more than residential. So, I guess my question is, are you talking about extending that further into the, let’s call it non-residential world or is that an initiative in residential? And how do you get that goal accomplished?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes, Keith, thank you very much. We see it across all of our different businesses and it can't be firm enough in saying the trade professional is our customer and we work hard every day to make sure that we deliver that value, breadth and depth of product, supply chain, consultative experience, being able to find search special items to make their jobs easier, making their business more successful, but where we really need to go, especially from a product strategy perspective is working with designers, engineers, architects. Is it commercial? Yes. Is it infrastructure? Yes. Municipalities? Is it designers in the builder showroom space? Absolutely. So just making sure that we are up funnel across all those different aspects helping our contractor to make sure that we have a smooth flow of product that meets the design criteria for that end user, that stakeholder, but at the same time, we're guiding what that product selection looks like to benefit Ferguson and our contractors. And so, that is not just own brand. That's also our partner vendor relationships on the branded side where we've got great exclusives that are unique to Ferguson that allow us to have a specification inside of a project giving us a better chance to secure that overall job, while at the same time, helping our margin profile in delivering a better product for the end user with good timeliness for the contractor. So really, it's across all of our different business groups. It is in person through relationships, but it's also through technology, especially as we start to see building information modeling becoming a bigger part of not only the commercial business, but beyond.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Okay, second, final question, and a follow-up to Kathryn’s, as you looked at business, the last sort of 60 days, I think you’ve, you know, shown some caution on your non-residential business. If you look at those three, the commercial, the civil infrastructure and industrial, in the last couple months, which of those has been the weakest market?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Keith, could you repeat that last part? We lost you on the last part.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes, sorry. Let me speak a little louder. Yes, which of the non-residential businesses, you know, you define them as commercial, civil infrastructure and industrial, it seems as though they're weaker in residential in the last couple months of business, which of those is the weakest? Which is causing the lowest trend?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Industrial is. And again, we don't have a tremendous amount of exposure to oil and natural gas, but it is the weaker of all those types of businesses, really, commercial then civil, municipal and industrial.

Keith Hughes

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Okay, thank you.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Truist. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please, Keith

Yes.

Operator

Operator

We have our next question. This question comes from Yves Bromehead of Exane. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please.

Yves Bromehead

Analyst · Exane. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Just a few questions on my end, could you maybe come back just on the end-market developments, and especially looking at the comments you've made on the municipal funding? You kind of use a backward [indiscernible] on the press release. I wanted to understand if you've seen any improvements with regard to that sub-segment in recent weeks? And how you think going forward on that specific point? My second question is on your slide where you show your positions and your vertical exposure, I’m trying to figure out maybe with your new strategy with a U.S. listing, looking ahead in next five years, where do you see the largest opportunities in terms of market growth, but also in terms of potential external growth opportunities through M&A? And maybe just a last question, your outlook is essentially saying that with some product of your exposure, you expect flat market conditions. Can we extrapolate the outperformance of 2019 to 2020, which would suggest a low-single digits environment for Ferguson? Thank you so much.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Exane. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Great. Thank you very much. And from a municipal perspective, I think this is more our caution around what might happen. We haven't necessarily seen that today. But if you look at the stress and strain put on local and state budgets, given the COVID response and the need for funding, you do get concerned as to whether or not the general fund versus wastewater infrastructure, how that interplay happens. The good part about that is that our waterworks business, as indicated during the presentation, is a very balanced business. So yes, municipal, yes, public works construction, water, wastewater treatment plants, but also new residential and commercial. And in fact, we've seen good new residential work across the bulk of the U.S. in terms of that new residential work inside of waterworks. So, it is more a concern of caution about what could happen. From a vertical exposure and largest opportunities, both in market and M&A, I think you see a couple that we're really working hard to grow and expand in. HVAC, as we’ve spoken about before, is one of them. Certainly, the commercial maintenance, repair and operations business, what we call Ferguson Facility Supply, which is a huge, very fragmented market with good trading margins and good returns on capital, where we are continuing to make good headway in conjunction with abundant branch infrastructure to make sure that we can offer same day next day product availability to that customer set. But I can't reinforce enough, across all the different businesses that we operate in, we do see good opportunities both with M&A, and then, depending on the market, what does that organic investment look like depending on the market conditions that we operate in. And then, from a flat perspective, yes, we intend to outperform the market. We typically pushed for, call it, 200 basis points to 300 basis points worth of market outperformance making sure that we do it in the right way, achieving value for the services that we provide reflected in our gross margins and value for the relationships, both digital and human.

Yves Bromehead

Analyst · Exane. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Thanks a lot. Thanks.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Exane. If you'd like to go ahead with your question please

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have our next question. This question comes from Gregor Kuglitsch of UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please.

Gregor Kuglitsch

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Hi, can you hear me well?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Yes, Gregor.

Mike Powell

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

We can, Greg.

Gregor Kuglitsch

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Excellent, thank you. Brilliant. I've got a few questions as well. Maybe one big picture one on the margin potential of the U.S., so I think last year, you were slightly shy of 9%. That's including obviously IFRS 16. You're flagging kind of technology investments, some cost savings, and I don’t expect you to sort of give me a precise basis point number maybe for this year. But as you maybe take a five-year view, what do you think this business is capable of doing? I mean, could we be talking about double-digit? Or is that too aggressive? That's question one. Question two is relating to the M&A commentary again, so I want to understand if your kind of approach to M&A has changed a little bit, maybe it hasn't. But I just want to explore whether you're prepared to maybe go for a slightly larger deals. So historically, the last decade or so you've kind of done 1%, 2% annual sales contribution from acquisitions. I want to understand if you're kind of flagging a step change in that? Or it's just going to be more of the same? And then on e-commerce, if you could just – you gave us some growth numbers in your introductory remarks, if you could just remind us kind of the absolute numbers? So, I think the B2C is relatively easy, but in terms of the B2B, how many of your customers are basically using online channel? How many subscribers have you got? Just so we can understand the sort of absolute figures there because I think you were mostly flagging the rate of growth relative to March, but I want to understand where you are in absolute terms? Thank you.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Great, thank you, Gregor. I'm going to take a quick turn on all three of those questions, and then turn it over to Bill for a little bit more depth. From a big picture view, in terms of double-digit being too aggressive on margins, we do not put a ceiling on that. And we have historically looked at gross margin expansion as a good reflection of the value we provide and that's been the driver of trading margin expansion. We really need to look at both and I think that you're seeing that, hearing that in some of our comments for today. How do we get 10 basis points worth of gross margin improvement annually that is sustainable, built on value? And then, how do we make sure that we invest in technology, which are already embedded? That constant movement from a technology perspective in both OpEx and CapEx is embedded inside of the financials and what we are talking about today. But we need to have that in order to drive the productivity of our sales force, the productivity of our associates, things like distributed order management technology that sort of activity that makes our people more efficient, but also gets great value for our customer and makes us relevant for the long haul. Secondly, on the M&A side, there is no step change to what you're seeing. We will look at all opportunities, big and small, that is our responsibility, but when it comes to our ability to take a small-to-medium sized bolt-on with local relationships, bring it into our organization, take out some overhead costs, add technology supply chain to local relationships, it's a good solid, effective way of growing our company that also protects and enhances shareholder value. We also want to do capability acquisitions. What…

Bill Brundage

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Maybe just on that first piece, Kevin, on margins to fill that out a little bit more to your point, we don't put a ceiling on it, we do [Technical Difficulty] incrementally improve year-in year-out in supportive markets. Not only the gross margin side, but Kevin talked about the technology investments, technology spend for us today is about 6% of our cost base and that continues to grow. We absorb that in the ongoing cost base of the overall organization because not only does it improve the customer service aspect and the capabilities we bring to the customer, but Kevin, you also mentioned the productivity side. So in addition to that OpEx investment from a technology standpoint, we also invested about $100 million of CapEx this year, again, embedded in our overall CapEx guidance, but in technology because that's what’s going to make us better, not only for those customers, but from a productivity standpoint, so we could get better operating leverage over time.

Gregor Kuglitsch

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thanks, that was really helpful. Thank you. Good luck.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · UBS. If you'd like to go ahead with your question, please

Thank you, Gregor.

Operator

Operator

We have our final question. This one comes from Steven Goulden of Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven.

Steven Goulden

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

I just wanted to ask you on – obviously, you’ve talked a lot in the Q&A about M&A and bolt-ons, et cetera. You said earlier on that you're not really seeing any kind of fire sale assets, or particularly desperate sellers right now, but can you give us a little bit of a feel for the typical multiple that you'd be paying kind of on an EV/EBITDA basis if possible just because obviously that kind of links you to your trading profit focus? And then, you know, typically, what would you – what kind of margin would you be buying a business like that on? And how quickly could you sort of get it up to group levels of, you know, traditional group margin, basically, through synergies? And I guess, just to, sort of put that into context, you know, obviously, your buyback is currently on pause. Clearly, if you're able to pick up these businesses that, you know, let's say, for example, 9x, 10x and your stocks are say, 14x, 15x, does that have any implication for a, you know, your willingness to do more M&A than to do a buyback and be obviously the potential mix of equity versus debt that you may use in any particular potential acquisition?

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Maybe I'll take very quickly the last portion, and then hand it back to Bill. From a buyback perspective, M&A versus buyback, you know, I really focus on what our capital priorities are. And when you look at organic investment, dividend [go through cycle] and M&A followed by return of capital to shareholders and we're really, from a buyback perspective, just wanting to better understand how we come through this COVID environment, the uncertainty that's in all of our markets today, and really need to evaluate that as we move through our fiscal year from a decision-making standpoint. But maybe I'll hand it back to Bill to get after returns and multiples and what have you.

Bill Brundage

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Yes, I would tell you, typically, we're seeing and I'll give you somewhat of a wide range on multiples because every deal is different and unique, and clearly brings different synergies to the table, but in general, I'd say we're in that 7x to 10x is what we're seeing in the marketplace over the last couple of years. You know, from a margin standpoint, overall, clearly, the vast majority of those acquisitions that we do have a lower margin, lower trading margin than what we have and we look to bring those synergies in quickly and get them up to our trading multiple over a couple of years. If you think about the traditional bolt-on, M&A deal that we do, we go in quickly, we put them on our system, we hook them up to our supply chain, we get to distribution and the fleet synergy, we get sourcing synergies, and then we can take a little bit of back office costs out as well in those acquisitions. Those are typically, kind of how we approach the M&A front.

Steven Goulden

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Great. Thanks a lot.

Mike Powell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Steve, it's Mike. The only thing I would add is just remember that, you know when we buy businesses, the fit is so important for us. So, there's a lot of sort of corporate finance theory, but the most important thing for us is, you know we're buying people. And they often don't end up on our balance sheet, a lot of goodwill does. And I've always said, you know, we need to buy good quality businesses and good relationships that fit with Ferguson. And that is really, really important for us, as well as the financial theory, because people can walk out the door, and then you're left with a whole load of goodwill to write off. So, it's the people in the relationships which come back to the core values of Ferguson that we care just about in M&A, as well as [indiscernible] theory, which sort of goes alongside it.

Steven Goulden

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Great. Thanks a lot. That’s very helpful.

Kevin Murphy

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. If you like to go ahead with your question, please, Steven

Well, given that that's the last question, if I could echo my earlier statements that we began this call, great to welcome Bill into the new role really looking forward to what the future holds for us. And I can't let the call go without saying again, thank you to Mr. Mike Powell, wish we were together on the same side of the ocean for this call, but you've been an incredible help to me, and an incredible asset to the growth in and development of our company. So, thank you very much. And thank you for your time today on our call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the call for today. Thank you for joining and you may now disconnect your lines.