Daniel Poston
Analyst · Morgan Keegan
Thanks, Kevin. As Kevin mentioned, we had a very strong quarter and we've got many positive operating trends to discuss. If you turn to Slide 4 of the presentation, in the fourth quarter, we reported net income of $333 million, and paid preferred dividends of $63 million. This resulted in $270 million of net income available to common shareholders or $0.33 per diluted share. Compared with the third quarter, this is a 40% increase in net income and a 50% increase in diluted earnings per share. You'll notice that our average diluted share count was up this quarter by almost 40 million shares. That simply represents the effect of the if converted method of computing diluted EPS as the share is underlying our Series G convertible preferred stock and our warrants were now included on our fully diluted share count. This resulted from increased profitability, but reduced the EPS by about $0.05 for the quarter. These strong results were driven by $583 million of PPNR, which reflected solid fee and net interest income result and by significantly reduced net charge-offs and provision expense as our credit profile continue to approve. Before I turn to detailed results, let me stop here for just a moment. In my comments, I will provide information relating to our outlook for the first quarter results and for trends going forward. The offering we've announced and the TARP repayment may affect some of those expectations. In the interest of clarity, our providing outlook, excluding effects of those actions rather than incorporating them into our guidance. We've provided several slides that outline our plans and provide pro forma effects of those plans. Those slides are in the appendix to the presentation, that part of our earnings materials and those effects are pretty simple to calculate. So turning now to Slide 5 in NII. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis increased $3 million sequentially to $919 million, while net interest margin increased five basis points to 3.75%. There were a number of puts and takes in the quarter that led to this sequential improvement. NII and NIM both benefited from ongoing CD repricing and deposit mix shift away from CDs, as well as continued deposit pricing discipline. Also, we experienced higher average total loan balances, despite the refinancing of a portion of our loan to FTPS, which we outlined in the release, that I'll talk a little bit more about in a minute. The net result of that muted one on what would otherwise have been a more substantial contribution to the growth in loans and the trends there. On the other hand, we experienced higher premium amortization expense due to higher securities prepayments during the quarter. And finally, and this is more of a NIM factor, we have had strong C&I loan originations to highly rated credits, and the yield on those loans reflected that high quality. With that context and turning to Slide 6, let's go through the balance sheet in a bit more detail. Average earning assets were down about $1 billion sequentially or 1%, which was primarily driven by lower investment securities balances, partially offset by growth in average total loan balances. Average short-term investments declined $1 billion, driven by lower cash balances held with the fed. We reduced excess liquidity through the runoff of CDs, which kept overall deposits flat, and we prepaid $1 billion in Federal Home Loan Bank funding. Average taxable investment securities balances declined about $210 million, which was primarily the result of the sale of agency securities during the quarter, which generated gains of about $18 million. Additionally, we continued to invest a portion of portfolio cash flows in high-quality mortgage originations, generally with maturities of 20 years or less in order to maintain the duration of our earning assets portfolio. We continue to be very careful about managing the interest rate risk profile of our balance sheet, and we continue to target a neutral to modestly asset-sensitive position. Average wholesale funding declined about $2 billion compared with the third quarter. As I noted during the quarter, we terminated $1 billion in Federal Home Loan Bank funding based on our excess liquidity position and our reduced funding needs. So we saw a partial impact of that during this quarter. We incurred about $17 million in charges on the early extinguishment of these borrowings and the associating cash flow hedge, which was also terminated. That charge is recorded in other noninterest expense. The remaining decline in wholesale funding was attributable to the decline in jumbo CDs. Average total loan balances were up about $300 million compared to the prior quarter even after the impact of refinancing our loan to FTPS during the quarter. In connection with their acquisition of National Processing Company, FTPS increased the size of its loan facilities, which were then syndicated through a group of banks. We are part of that syndicate, but our share of that loan is now about a-third of the original $1.25 billion. Excluding the impact of that refinancing, average total loan balances would have been up about $845 million over the prior quarter. Period and total loans increased $965 million and would have increased $1.8 billion after the FTPS refinancing. We are very pleased with our core loan production. We're seeing some growth within several areas. We saw positive loan balance trends within C&I, Residential Mortgage and Auto Loans. Looking at each portfolio. Average commercial loans in the portfolio were down 2% from last quarter, which was driven by the $961 million of loans that we transferred to held-for-sale, in connection with the credit actions taken at the very end of the third quarter, as well as the impact of the FTPS loan refinancing. On an end-of-period basis, commercial loans were up $522 million, driven by growth in C&I loans and partially offset by the runoff in the Commercial Real Estate portfolio. Period-end C&I loans increased 3% sequentially. And excluding the impact of the FTPS loan refinancing, period-end C&I loans increased 7% sequentially. We see broad-based growth across many industries and sectors, with continued particularly strong production within manufacturing and healthcare industries. Commercial line utilization was stable again this quarter, although it remains at low levels still at 32.7% compared with 32.4% last quarter and 32.7% a year ago. And as you know, that's down from normal levels that are in the low- to mid-40s. We saw continued runoff in the Commercial Mortgage and Commercial Construction portfolios, but the rate of decline has slowed. In aggregate, on a period-end basis, those portfolios were down 3% sequentially. We'd expect these balances to continue to trend down over the near term, but as I noted, that headwind is diminishing. Average Consumer Loans in the portfolio increased 2% sequentially and increased 3% on a period-end basis. Average Residential Mortgage balances were up 7% sequentially, including the $228 million of nonperforming loans that were sold at the end of the third quarter. Mortgage originations were $7.4 billion in the fourth quarter, a 33% decrease over last year. The increased origination volume was due to increased refinance activity and record low mortgage rates. As we mentioned last quarter, we began retaining simplified refi mortgages originated through our retail branch system, which is a product that has lower LTVs, shorter durations and higher average rates than most of the conforming loans that we sell to agencies. Mortgage retention added about $710 million to our average balances during this quarter. Average auto loan balances increased 3% sequentially and 21% from last year due to strong originations throughout the year. The loans we brought back on the balance sheet in the first quarter contributed pretty significantly to the year-over-year increase. Our Auto portfolio has continued to perform very well at spreads that remained attractive, although we've begun to see some pressure on spreads recently due to increased competition. Average credit card balances were flat sequentially and down 7% from a year ago, and average home equity loan balances were down 2% from the third quarter and 5% on a year-over-year basis. Looking ahead in the first quarter of 2011, we expect to see continued loan growth in the first quarter, with solid C&I growth despite the full quarter effect of the FTPS loan refinancing on that quarter. For reference, while our period-end balances already fully reflects that, our average balances will be impacted by about another $300 million or so in the first quarter. Moving onto deposits. Average core deposits increased 2% on a sequential basis and 6% year-over-year. Consumer CDs, which are included in core deposits, declined 17% sequentially and 35% year-over-year. That reflects the continuation of the repricing of the CD portfolio, including higher rate CDs that were originated in the second half of 2008. We still have about $2.5 billion of those CDs, which have rates in excess of 4% and we expect about $1.5 billion to mature primarily during the second half of 2011. Excluding consumer CDs, average transaction deposits were up 5% sequentially and 16% from a year ago. The main driver of this sequential increase was seasonally high DDAs, which were up 9% sequentially and 16% from a year ago. Average retail transaction deposits increased 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year, with growth across all categories. We've had great success with our relationship savings product, which has now attracted over $9 billion of balances since its inception. These balances have more than tripled from a year ago. And more importantly, they've deepened relationships with our core transaction customers. Average commercial transaction deposits increased 5% from last quarter and 18% from a year ago. Average public fund balances were down 1% sequentially and 18% year-over-year, as we've adjusted our pricing due to our excess liquidity position. If you exclude public funds balances, average commercial transaction deposits increased 6% sequentially and 33% from a year ago. That reflects continued strong liquidity among our commercial customers, as well as seasonally high DDA balances. They were up 10% sequentially and 19% from a year ago. We'd expect a modest decline in core deposits in the first quarter, as consumer CDs continue to run off, although we have continued to be pleasantly surprised each quarter by the strength of trends in the core transaction deposit area. With that background, let me circle back to our overall outlook for NII and NIM. Due to the short month in February, we experienced significant seasonality in the first quarter due to day count. That affects NII and NIM comparisons between the fourth quarter and the first quarter and also between the first quarter and the second quarter. Day count alone will reduce NII by about $12 million and increase the NIM by about three basis points in the first quarter. As a result, we expect NII to be down about $5 million to $10 million in the first quarter and for NIM to be up about 5 to 10 basis points. Both NII and NIM should also benefit from CD run off and from expected loan growth, both of which will help absorb some of our excess liquidity. This seasonality will reverse itself in the second quarter, and we currently expect NII and NIM to return to levels similar to the fourth quarter or perhaps a little better. Moving onto fees, as outlined on Slide 7. Third quarter noninterest income was $656 million, a decrease of $171 million from last quarter. But you'll remember that fee income in the third quarter included $152 million gain from the settlement of BOLI litigation. If you exclude this gain, fee income declined 3%, largely due to exceptionally strong third quarter mortgage results. Deposit service charges decreased 3% sequentially, with commercial deposit fees up 3% and consumer deposit fees down 10%. As you know, Reg E went into effect for all accounts in July and August. We sold about $17 million in the full run rate impact of this in the fourth quarter, which is right in line with our expectations of $15 million to $20 million impact per quarter. We'd expect first quarter deposit fees to be down about $5 million from seasonally strong fourth quarter levels. Investment Advisory revenue increased 4% from last quarter and 8% on a year-over-year basis. Both the sequential and year-over-year increases were driven by an overall lift in equity and bond markets, as well as improved production, particularly in the private client services, institutional and Brokerage areas. Securities and brokerage fee revenue increased 2% sequentially and 13% from a year ago, reflecting the benefit of investments in our sales force and sales management. We expect Investment Advisory revenue to grow another $5 million in the first quarter. Corporate Banking revenue of $103 million increased 21% from the third quarter to the fourth and 16% from last year. The sequential improvement was partially the result of higher loans syndication fees given the favorable market conditions. Additionally, sequential results benefited from higher business lending fees, lease remarketing results and seasonally high foreign exchange revenue. The year-over-year increase was also largely driven by those same factors. We expect first quarter corporate banking revenue to be down about $10 million from the very strong fourth quarter levels. Mortgage banking revenue of about $149 million decreased $83 million from very strong third quarter results, primarily driven by the swing of MSR impairment, net of hedging results that was a $20 million loss this quarter compared with a gain of $46 million in the third quarter. Third quarter results were up $17 million from a year ago. If you look at gains on deliveries, they were $158 million this quarter compared with $173 million last quarter, as we continue to have strong originations volume from refinancing activity. But margins declined due to rising mortgage rates. Servicing fees of $59 million were up modestly and MSR amortization was $47 million in the fourth quarter compared with $43 million last quarter. Additionally, net securities gains on nonqualifying hedges on MSRs in the fourth quarter totaled $14 million, which we currently wouldn't expect to repeat in the first quarter. On an overall basis, we expect total mortgage banking-related revenue to decrease in the first quarter by about $40 million, primarily driven by lower gains on deliveries due to the impact of the high-rate environment and lower refinancing activity. Payment processing revenue was $81 million, which was a 5% increase from last quarter and a 7% increase from a year ago, driven by seasonally strong consumer spending in the fourth quarter. We expect first quarter processing revenue to be up a similar amount. Before I move on, Kevin touched on the Durbin amendment, and it's pretty mature to estimate the actual impact of this legislation, as the proposals that are out there right now are currently out for comment, but it's certainly much less than just calculating the proposed interchange caps based on volume because that would not incorporate any mitigation, which we believe will be substantial, both for us and for the industry. We had about $204 million in debit interchange revenue for the year of 2010, driven by volume of 433 million transactions. The proposed caps are $0.12 or $0.07 per transaction. And until we have final rules, we're not really prepared to directly comment on the gross financial impact of this legislation. But you can kind of do the math in terms of the range of potential results that, that produces. However, I just want to mention again that we expect to substantially mitigate the effect of the new rules, so we would not expect to ever experience anything like that kind of drop in revenue, even if these kinds of proposals are ultimately adopted. This is a valuable service to our customers and to merchants, and it costs us a lot more than $0.12 per transaction to make this service available. We have no intention of offering a loss linear product that is core to the fundamental nature of deposit and payments offerings. We've been studying this for many months, and we've got a number of alternatives that's available to us. Which of those we ultimately pursue, will depend a lot on a number of factors, including the final proposal, the competitor's actions and our own internal work and planning over the next five or six months until it is scheduled to take effect. Because we haven't decided what to do for all the reasons that I just mentioned, including that the final rules aren't in place, I can't tell you what the mitigating effect will be. We're going to be very careful on what we do and how we implement. And we will ultimately expect to recapture most, if not all, of the value that we deliver through this channel. Net gains on investment securities were $21 million in the fourth quarter compared with net gains of $4 million in the previous quarter. And then turning to other income within the fee income area. Other income declined $140 million sequentially, due primarily to the $152 million BOLI gain that we had last quarter, but as well as lower credit-related costs realized in revenue this quarter. Credit card recorded in fee income was $34 million in the fourth quarter compared with $42 million last quarter. Net gains on held-for-sale loans that were sold or settled during the quarter, were $21 million, which were offset by $35 million in fair value charges on commercial loans held for sale for a net of $14 million. Last quarter, losses of that nature were about $10 million. Additionally, losses on the OREO properties were $19 million this quarter versus $29 million last quarter. We expect credit-related cost within fee income on an overall basis to drop about $15 million in the first quarter. Overall, we currently expect first quarter fee income of about $600 million, plus or minus, with the decline primarily driven by lower mortgage banking revenue, as I discussed, and lower securities gains, as well as seasonality. That seasonality and continued organic growth should produce favorable sequential comparisons in the second quarter in virtually every fee category. Turning to expenses on Slide 8. Noninterest expense of $987 million was up $8 million or 1% sequentially, which was driven by higher revenue-based incentives resulting from increased production and full year revenue results, as well as continued investment in our sales force expansion. As I previously mentioned, during the quarter, we also incurred a $17 million charge in other noninterest expense, in conjunction with the early extinguishment of $1 billion in FHLP funding, along with an associated interest rate cash flow hedge. As you would expect in this environment, we continue to see elevated credit-related costs. Third quarter credit-related costs included within the operating expense were $53 million versus $67 million last quarter. The declines in the prior quarter was driven by decreased expenses related to mortgage repurchases, $20 million this quarter compared with $45 million last quarter. You'll remember that we increased the repurchase reserves by about $15 million last quarter, and we believe that we are adequately reserved given our current exposure and our expectations. File requests and repurchase demands have been volatile and difficult to predict, although repurchase demands did come down this quarter. We currently expect demands for repurchases and loss severities to remain elevated, and our current expectation for first quarter of 2011 is for repurchase expense to be about $20 million, similar to this quarter. Reserve related to unfunded commitments declined $4 million in the fourth quarter compared with a $23 million reduction in the third quarter. We currently expect that total credit-related cost included in the expense in the first quarter to be consistent with these fourth quarter levels. In total, we expect first quarter expenses to be down $35 million to the $950 million range. That decline would be driven primarily by lower mortgage-related compensation and lower loan closing costs, as well as the effect of the $17 million charge on debt extinguishment that we incurred in the fourth quarter. Those reductions will be partially offset by the traditional seasonal spike in FICA and unemployment costs within the employee benefits expense line of about $21 million. The great majority of those incremental costs will not recur in the second quarter, as you may recall from prior years. Moving on to Slide 9 taking a look at PPNR. Preprovision net revenue was $583 million in the quarter, in line with our expectations. If you exclude the gain we had from BOLI settlement in the third quarter, PPNR declined about $50 million, as we expected, due to lower mortgage banking results. We currently expect first quarter PPNR in the $550 million to $560 million range. Coupled with mortgage banking, the drivers there are largely seasonal, $33 million due to day count and employee benefits alone. We'll recapture about $30 million of that seasonality in the second quarter, and we currently expect second quarter PPNR to be more similar to the fourth quarter level of $580 million or perhaps a little better. You'll see in the release that the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was about 20%, which was consistent with last quarter and in line with our expectations. We expect that in 2011, our effective tax rate will return to more normalized levels of closer to 30%, as the tax rate resets for the year and a higher level of expected earnings for 2011. The first quarter effective tax rate should be in that range or perhaps a little bit higher. Turning to capital on Slide 10. Capital levels remained very strong. Tangible common equity was 7%, a 34 basis point improvement from the end of the third quarter. That ratio, as we calculate it, excludes unrealized securities gains, which totaled $314 million. All in, TCE was 7.3%. Tier 1 common increased 16 basis points to 7.5% and the Tier 1 ratio was up nine basis points to 13.9%, and the total capitalization was down 14 basis points to 18.1%. That's a strong capital position. In our proposed capital plan that we announced today, we'll make it even stronger. We also have solid trends in earnings and capital generation, and thus we would expect to exceed our target levels in the near term, but that will also provide us with a significant amount of flexibility over time to support attractive opportunities for balance sheet growth, appropriate distributions to shareholders and opportunistic but disciplined evaluation of M&A opportunities. Fifth Third has a strong earnings position. We reported a 118 basis points of ROA this quarter. While we'll have some seasonality in the first quarter and we'll be back to a more normalized tax rate, we think we'll produce something close to that 118 basis points in the second quarter. Longer-term, we continue to believe that a more normalized ROA for us is in the 130- to 150-basis point range. I think the 130 basis points is imminently doable without any long delay to get there. Our provision expense is still over 80 basis points, and that is well above what we would expect on a normalized basis. We also had $87 million in credit cost reported in both fees and expenses and that's still probably $50 million above where those amounts were before the crisis. There are headwinds like Durbin, but I believe we'll adapt to that as I discussed earlier. Finally and significantly, our business is significantly underleveraged relative to what it's capable of. We've made every effort to protect the revenue-generating resources of the company during the crisis because we wanted to maintain our capacity to act on opportunities when they returned, which we believe they are now doing. But our asset base and our fee revenue currently reflects an economic environment that's not yet firing on all cylinders. To put it another way, as we begin to grow, we don't expect that we'll have to grow expenses and headcount at the same rate. We all know that Fifth Third's philosophy is to be pretty lean. But we're currently at an efficiency ratio a little North of 60% and that's a function of the underleveraging of our franchising capabilities. I'd expect that to move back into the 50s on a normalized basis and we'll work to ensure that we're as efficient as possible, while we continue to invest for the revenue growth we're confident that we can generate. You've seen that the revenue generation capability is there even during the crisis in our operating results. So we feel very good about our competitive position, our strategic position, and we'll look forward to 2011, as the year where we have the opportunity to demonstrate those strengths clearly. That wraps up my remarks. I'll now turn it over to Mary to discuss credit results and trends. Mary?