Earnings Labs

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Jun 8, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Five Below First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Christiane Pelz

Analyst

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's first quarter 2022 financial results conference call. On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Bull, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. If you do not have a copy of today's release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com. I will now turn the call over to Joel.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thank you, Christiane and thanks everyone for joining us for our first quarter 2022 earnings call. When we last spoke at our Investor Day in March, we unveiled our vision for future growth, the Triple-Double, and characterized 2022 as a unique year within that framework. given the lapping of stimulus and ongoing macro issues including record inflation, the war in Ukraine, and continued lockdowns in China. While 2022 is indeed proving out to be a unique year. The customer response to our new prototype has been overwhelmingly positive. We remain excited about our future and are focused on execution to convert our store fleet to the new prototype. Key initiatives related to this rollout include opening all new stores in the Beyond format, executing store conversions and adding new products and services to celebrate rituals and milestones to further enhance the store experience. Now onto the first quarter. The first quarter was challenging from a sales perspective as we had to anniversary the impact of stimulus amid the uncertain macro environment. While sales in April came in softer than expected, we effectively managed costs and delivered solid bottom line results in line with expectations. Total sales in the first quarter grew 7% over last year to $640 million, while comparable sales decreased 3.6%, driven by a decline in both basket and transactions. We delivered diluted earnings per share of $0.59 driven by strong cost discipline. Our key growth driver new store growth continued with 35 new stores opened across 23 states. The new store in Albuquerque, New Mexico ranked in the top 25 Spring Grand openings of all time. Other highlights of the first quarter include opening our 1,200 store in Union Square, Manhattan and two other stores in the New York Boroughs, as well as a new store in…

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Thanks, Joel, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin my remarks with a review of our first quarter results and then provide guidance for the second quarter and the full year. As Joel said, the first quarter was more challenging in April than we expected. As we cycle the impact of large stimulus payments amid an uncertain macro environment, while consumers experienced record high inflation. Our sales for the first quarter of 2022 increased 7% to $639.6 million from $597.8 million reported in the first quarter of 2021. As we have said on previous earnings calls, we believe that a meaningful measure of our performance in the near term is to compare our results to pre-pandemic results from fiscal 2019, given the outsized stimulus impact in 2021 and the impact of COVID in 2020. Sales for the comparable set of stores opened in both the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022 increased 17%, or 5.4% on a three-year compound annual growth rate. Comparable sales decreased by 3.6% versus the first quarter of 2021 with a decrease in comp ticket of 1.9% and a comp transaction decrease of 1.7%. As we have seen since reopening our stores in 2020, our average ticket continues to be strong, increasing over 20% when compared to 2019. We opened 35 new stores across 23 states in the first quarter compared to 68 new stores opened in the first quarter last year. We ended the quarter with 1,225 stores, an increase of 138 stores or 13% versus 1,087 stores at the end of the first quarter of 2021. In line with our guidance, operating margin was 6.6%, which declined approximately 400 basis points versus the first quarter of 2021 with approximately one-third of the decline in gross margin and the remainder in…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. Thanks. So, Joel, maybe could you elaborate on the softer than expected April across your world? Have you seen any change in consumer behavior so far in May or June? And then for Ken, are you embedding any improvement in the macro backdrop into this revised outlook or maybe could you help walk through the underlying comp build for the back half of the year relative to trends in the business that you're seeing today?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah, Matt. I mean obviously, for the first quarter, we guided 0 to 2, when we were with you guys pretty late in March. So for us to come in at 3.5-ish negative comp, the April results were obviously softer than what we expected. I would also just tell you that, like, many retailers, this is an extremely hard time to predict exactly what's going to happen is, we were in the height of the stimulus from 2021 and it's -- while you know when the dollars were distributed, it's really hard to tell exactly when they were used and honestly, we probably focus a little too closely to when they were distributed and didn't give enough tailwinds into the into April and May from the stimulus. I think the other thing in May was, there was a lot more tax return dollars in May last year than there was this year and we didn't factor that into it. So I think, the height of the biggest headwinds are behind us in that $1.9 trillion stimulus. But the consumer continues to face a lot of hurdles most recently being the formula shortage which for families, it's got to be something that's front and center on their mind, et cetera, et cetera. So I think you can tell by our guide that we're expecting Q2 relatively in line with Q1. And then, I think as the consumer gets out of their frozen mode, we'll start to seek out value and that's where we start to do better.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

And then, Matt, your question around the assumptions, I guess in our guide or outlook around the macro backdrop, I mean as Joel mentioned we're really looking at the current environment at this point. And I think one of the, the other pieces we add into it is a comment around customers returning to value and really going after value in these difficult periods. So we do expect that to kick-in. We've not seen that full benefit yet up to this point. When you translate that into the -- you mentioned comps, when you look at comps, obviously, with the guide a negative comp for the first half of the year and then given the guide that we provided for the full year of a flat to a minus 2. It would assume positive comps in the back half of the year. We feel really good about the fourth quarter given some of the things that I called out and some of those factors, especially inventory positioning and in-stocks and Five Beyond. And our outlook right now assumes that we see the -- what we're seeing in Q1 and Q2 kind of moderating sometime in Q3 and then much bigger benefits in Q4.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty]

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty]

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Simeon your – I was having hard time. You asking how do we drive traffic as a discretionary retailer?

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Yeah. So and you think any factors that you're [Technical Difficulty] or you change given that the backdrop is evolved?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Well, I mean, look, I think, first of all, we certainly look back to the last time there was a recession in ‘08 (ph) and that was a pretty successful time for Five. I wasn't here during that time. I was at Walmart at that time. We saw the same thing at Walmart. And I think for us, that's why so many of our remarks and comments were on value and the opportunities we're starting to see around one time buys and special buys and that type of thing. And I think as we especially get closer to holiday the back half of the year, we're going to see a lot of customers start their trip at Five rather than finish their trip because they know the value that they're going to find there. And so, we start to move as we get into the back half of the year from a discretionary retailer into a needs retailer. As history would tell us and certainly from our day ToysRUs as well as the last place, the consumer will cut is for their kids. And so we see no reason that doesn't change this year and that is why we are so focused on the value message as we look ahead to the second half of the year. Thanks, Simeon.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Hey, Joel. Two related questions, right. How aggressive do you want to be on closeouts and in what categories and price points? And then secondly maybe just remind us your philosophy on markdowns versus packaway.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. It's a good question, both of them, I think packaway (ph) is something you really have to balance I'm taking your second question, the second part of that first. We have a few years ago were too heavily invested in pack aways. I think that worked really well when we were just a small regional player, but as you become national that becomes a really complex thing. So I don't expect us to see packaways becoming a big change in our philosophy going forward. And then your second part of that is how aggressive on markdowns. I mean, sorry on one time buys, look, John if they present it to us in any category and it relates to our core customer, we will be in the market buying and we're starting to see those opportunities present themselves, that's been a pretty dry area for last two years, but we're -- Michael has given full cart launch to be him and the merchants to be chasing that product in across all Eight Worlds. We expect our inventory to be very clean by the end of the year. This is product that sells extremely well at holiday. We've got a good track record and how to manage that, but we'll be aggressive in all Eight Worlds.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Paul Lejuez with Citi. Please go ahead.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Hey, Joel. Can you just frame the close out from special buys like what percent of your sales does it typically represent versus where you think you might be going this year, next year? And then, you mentioned capitalizing on some opportunities in real estate. I was curious if you could just dig into that a little bit in terms of what you're seeing there? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. Look, regardless of how you look at closeouts on special buys. It is a very small piece of our business. It was much, much bigger when we were a small chain, but we can't rely on closeouts to drive our business. They're not going to be sitting on 20,000, 40,000, 60,000 units of an item that we can constantly uses a flow of goods. Having said that, Paul, they really serve as traffic drivers and so. While, it will still be less than double-digits of our total. We can use those in our emails and social media and really try and use that to lure customers into our store with incredible value. So it's more opportunistic and it's more about being able to drive traffic. We can use them for online exclusives, but it's really a nice piece of our strategy, but it doesn't make up the overwhelming piece of our business. And then as far as real estate goes, as you've listened to some of the announcements to several retailers, we're just coming back from ICSC, a couple of weeks ago, which is in Vegas, probably the biggest resales real estate show of the year, which really hasn't occurred in the last couple of years because of COVID. Our team came back energized the landlords are talking to us. The landlords are getting excited and ready to get back to growth. They are starting to see some, some of their bottlenecks start to loosen up and so I think that it's really been a sea change from where we were at the beginning of the year where everything was of backing up into the back half of this year and into next year. So we are pretty much done with all the deals for this year and that's why, as my prepared remarks, said, we've got great line of sight of the 160 for this year and next year is really starting to shape up with the added commentary of the kind of the tenor of the meeting out of it out in Las Vegas, a couple of weeks ago.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Joel, those rates come in better than you anticipated at the beginning of the year.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

I mean, it's less than rate change, clearly, if we went into the C&D centers, we could easily take rates down, but we're still staying committed to the A & B centers and it's just more about the opportunity opportunities presenting themselves as opposed to at least at this point a change in rate. All right, Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Brian Nagel

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. So my question, if you look at the sales performance during the quarter and in particularly in the month of April, you are falling short of modestly short of the guidance, as you -- under the underlying drivers, is that more a function of just lapping this really difficult comparison last year or are you seeing within your business some signs for consumer actually is pulling back and it was seeing that, maybe help us understand what that would be?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah, Brian. It's kind of a combination of both and I think because they both hit at the exact same time, it's really tough to tease out, which one ways more than the other, but clearly the consumer and we can measure that, because our lower household income markets are not performing as well as our higher income house market. So that clearly those dollars have dried up from last year's stimulus, those customers have less discretionary income and therefore that's where we've seen a tightening in sales. But kind of separating those two out because they happened at the same time, it's hard to wait one over the other. But we are definitely seeing both.

Brian Nagel

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks, Brian. You bet.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Karen Short with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Karen Short

Analyst

Hi. Thanks very much. I just wanted to go back to guidance for the second half more specifically, I mean obviously, I appreciate that things are very volatile, right now, but when you look at your second half guidance with respect to and I'm looking at this on a three-year basis, but three-year sales growth, three-year comps, three-year EBIT growth and margin expansion implied. It just seems that there is a, you really need to see meaningful strength in the second half that doesn't necessarily seem realistic. And so I want to tie that into the fact that I know you feel good about your inventory, but obviously, inventories are up quite a bit year-over-year. And the question is like, what's the risk that you really have to have much greater markdowns in light of ongoing weakness in the consumer?

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks, Karen. There is obviously different ways to look at the numbers now given the challenge and comparing things year-over-year, right with the pandemic and other challenges there. So one way to look at it and I'll put out there is to go back again as we did for our Q1 results and go back and look at 2019. One way you could do it is to go back and look at the average sales per store in 2019, which again was a more normalized year pre-pandemic. And when you look at that, you'll notice that the increase on a quarterly basis is relatively consistent when you look at the first quarter and the third and fourth quarter. There is a little bit of a shortfall in the second quarter, again based on the current environment, what we're seeing. So it really kind of gets back to first quarter levels that we saw. So when you look at it that way and I think when you look at it from a geometric stack basis also, you see that same trend where the back half of the year is getting back in line with the first quarter. So you don't see it as much of the, I guess a hockey stick that you're, that you're mentioning there.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. In fact, all you have to do is believe we will perform at the exact same levels as Q1. So I'm not sure what numbers you are look at, but that's kind of how we thought about it in terms of the back half versus first quarter.

Karen Short

Analyst

And just the inventory risks?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

I mean maybe far bad we should probably talked about it at the Investor Day, but I mean it was part of our plan to be up significantly year-over-year. Some of it was about just pulling forward, I mean we did not have the inventory levels we wanted in Q4 last year and we wanted to ensure we were ready for summer here a piece of it is inflation costs. I mean our inventory levels, include all the added shipping costs, et cetera that's all in it that wasn't there a year ago. So, is it up a little bit more because of the sales miss, but sales miss is not much than that far materially off what we guided, so few percent, but overall, there's really no concern from our end. In fact, I'll tell you what, it’s the cleanest inventory we've had since I've been here, in terms of newness and that should really bode well for the customer.

Karen Short

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Karen.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Thanks, Karen.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, guys. Good afternoon. So just additional sort of color on what you think driving the most recent slowdown and what I mean by that is, like, how have the trend right product Squishmallows like how has that been performing, has that slowed at all. I know you're taking some price I guess for the inflation has the elasticity on that pricing changed much. And then just one more on Q4, I know you've had trade down in the past, like ‘08 and ‘09, but that was also a big stimulus environment, which we probably won't see. Just curious, is there other things that have you optimistic about Q4 like product pipeline in the holiday, maybe you could speak to that. Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. I mean go back to my prepared remarks, I mean squish has continued to be very strong for us. We are up against poppers from last year, which is that trend is pretty much over PS anyone worried about markdowns were very, very clean on that but -- so I think squish is a great example of, as we find great trends, the customer is still buying those trends. Licenses has been a non-existent trend for a couple of years now. We see that as an area that could potentially start to emerge with finally having movies out there. Again, so we will chase trends as much as we’ll chase value. And then for Q4, there's just -- we have over 200 new stores in the prototype. We've got lessening of stimulus impact. We've got everything I talked about earlier, how we become a need store instead of a want store in Q4. So all of those add really lean towards a positive outlook on the back half of the year, as we kind of get through the worst of the headwinds from prior years. I don’t know, Ken, anything I didn’t...

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah. I'd just add a little bit more on the Q4. I mean, we mentioned in the prepared remarks to the better inventory position than we were last year. I mean, we all know about the supply chain challenges last year and again the supply chain teams and the buying teams have just done a great job in terms of the right amount of inventory and what we need to have. And then also the marketing, right at this -- we're getting better at our marketing more effective that our marketing, especially on the, the increased digital. So you put those into the mix, that's why you're hearing those comments that we're making around the potential for Q4 and holiday.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

All right. Hey, thanks much, Ed. Take care.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Thanks, Ed. Yeah.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Michael Lasser with UBS. Please go ahead.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. If you do a minus 3 to minus 4 comp for the full year rather than the flat to 2 for the full year. Would you have more or less than $0.50 of EPS risk to your full-year guidance in light of the deleverage on negative comps you would experience in the back half? Thanks a lot.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

So, Michael. You're asking, okay. If we do a minus…

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Minus 3 to minus 4, instead of flat 2.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah, I mean I don't have the exact figures here from an EPS impact, but it's not going to be, if you mentioned a $0.50 impact.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Is that, we saying would it be more or less than a $0.50 impact?

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Yeah. The overall takeaway from the earnings release for folks is that the outlook for the back half of the year is optimistic. So if you could frame downside case scenario for earnings for the year in light of that viewpoint, it would be helpful.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah. I think, Michael, one of the ways to look at that as you listen to us today, I mean we're being impacted by things like fuel surcharges and increased fuel costs that other retailers are, but you didn't hear us really talk about that in terms of the total impact for the year. So what's going on embedded in our operations and results is cost mitigation strategies that we're working on it. So one of the things you've known us for a long time. This is where Joel has mentioned, we're nimble organization and we respond to these things. So if you look at the assumed reduction in sales from our prior guidance for the back half of the year, you're right, you would probably assume a larger negative flow through to earnings. But all that we're doing internally here, it's pretty significant in terms of cost mitigation strategies and other cost efficiencies that we're using to offset that, that probably helps frame up that back half that you're seeing that looks a little bit better when you're-- than what you would expect, given the sales change from the [Multiple Speakers]

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Take the example of real-time first quarter.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

It's roughly 2 percentage points of comp below the guide and yet earnings came in right at the midpoint. So, I think we've got flexibility on our side to really manage the business and I certainly wouldn't forecast that big of a decline in earnings.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

But we're doing that without putting the math together, Michael, but hopefully that gives you some outlook on how we're thinking about.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks, Michael.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Chuck Grom

Analyst

Hey, I thought Joel let me unpack and evaluate the 1Q comp miss, I still understand was it frequency that changed, was it basket size, you talked about your basket being or ticket being 20% higher than 2019. So as a frequency, was it basket? And then it sounds like May and into June has been soft, which is frankly counter to a lot of retailers have said, so just I'm curious why you think that's the case for Five Below?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. On the first one, it's roughly 50-50 on that and as for May, honestly, we didn't give enough credit to lapping the popper trends peak from last year in May, that was our biggest -- much bigger than spinners were back in '17. And I think that combined with -- at the end of the stimulus and everything from formula shortage. So all the other things going on that we've been talking about we just -- didn't put enough into the forecasting May correctly there. And as you can tell by our conversation here, we see the back half of this quarter already starting to improve. But, it was mostly driven by really soft May relative to our initial forecast.

Chuck Grom

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks, Chuck.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory. Please go ahead.

Joe Feldman

Analyst

Yeah. Hey. Thanks for taking the question guys. Wanted to ask you again, I may have missed this if you said it earlier, but like, did you start to see any trade down in the quarter. I know whether it's customers that you hadn't seen before coming in or maybe even kids starting to buy fewer items or I don't a lower priced items within the basket?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. No, look, we have yet to see a meaningful signal of the trade down happening that's not too unusual in the beginning of a tough period of time. So at this point in time, Joe, we haven't seen it. As far as you know, ticket goes a little softening in the number of units and that's more than offset by the AURs, as we have taken prices up. But the overall, no, we haven't seen any.

Joe Feldman

Analyst

Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jason Haas with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Jason Haas

Analyst

Hey. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So you had mentioned that you saw storage and lower income markets underperforming. I'm curious what you've seen in regards to the reception to Five Beyond in those markets and just a broader question about how you feel about rolling out this higher price point items in an environment where the customer is going to be a little bit more cash constrained?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. We -- as far as Five Beyond goes, we haven't seen any differential there because it's all about value. I mean it's incredible value that that we deliver in Five Beyond so that my comments were largely about the overall economy and our negative comps are being driven more by our low household income stores versus our higher household income stores. But no concern and have not seen any on the Five Beyond. I know that might sound counter intuitive but what they appreciate the extreme value, our customer notices it.

Jason Haas

Analyst

That's good to hear. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

You're welcome. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Thanks. And I wanted to see if I could ask maybe a totally different question. Ken, the tariffs that have existed on product inbound from China over the last few years had an impact. It hasn't been talked about a lot, but it's in the news, and the here and now given that it sounds like, we're moving in a direction where a bunch of tariffs are going to be removed. So I wanted to understand, one, what percentage of your inventory is subject to tariffs today? And two, if all tariffs were removed on the products that you're importing, what would the potential margin benefit be for the firm on a total basis?

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Hi, Jeremy. Thanks for that question. Yeah. I haven't talked about tariffs for a while. It feels like that's been years, but there is -- just to start off, there is nothing assumed in our guidance that for any reduction or change in tariffs. We’re assuming that they would be at the same level. I haven't heard or read of anything yet that of any definitive action is going to be taken. They were primarily on -- a lot of it was on kind of tech product for the most part. In terms of the percentage that were impacted, it was probably between about 20 and 25% of our imports that were impacted for the tariffs. So I apologize I haven't done any math on, if those were reversed whether in partially or in full what impact they would have on the business or operations overall.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Just keep in mind also Jeremy, if that does get reverse which we depreciate will take that. All our existing -- unless they do it retroactively, we still got to move through our, all our existing goods before we start to feel the positive impact of that, but it's roughly in that 25% range.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Of import. Yes, a much, much smaller portion of total we get.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Yeah. I think it's more financial 2023. Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah, absolutely. That's where the focus would be on that, but we take it, be a nice tailwind. All right. Thanks.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Thanks, Jeremy.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant

Analyst

Hey. This is Joe (ph) on for Scott. I just have two quick questions. First, just can you provide a breakdown on the lower income versus higher income consumer base that you have just because of the impact that had here? And secondly, just following up on the traffic issue that you guys saw. Would you say that maybe the lower income consumer is just cutting all discretionary spending in general or do you think there is something where they're driving less to shopping centers because of higher gas prices, or something like that.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

It's hard to tease all that out at the same time, Joe, because, don't forget that same customer was up against stimulus from last year. So it was an inflated strength, but roughly a third of our fleet consists of stores where the household income is less than 50,000. So just give you some perspective on that. I certainly can't per se, say that they're not spending any money on discretionary income, but I think all the stuff you're talking about are certainly possible outcomes of consolidating gas trips and et cetera., et cetera. But, it roughly represents about a third, for us.

Unidentified Participant

Analyst

Got you. Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Michael Montani

Analyst

Hey. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask if I could on three specific areas of the input costs, which was basically what you guys are seeing in terms of transport cost. If you're able to see any relief at spot rates were to come down on ocean freight in the back half or if you've kind of term that out so that you may not participate? Secondly was around diesel, if you've baked in any relief in the back half or if that assumes kind of record levels persist? And then lastly was it around wages, if there is any signs of peak there in terms of input cost inflation from wage rates?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. I mean, we largely do not participate in the spot rate. I don't know, Ken, you add.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Yeah. I think just on those -- Michael on those three areas on kind of inbound freight, ocean freight and containers. If you recall, we lock up a significant -- almost all of our capacity and rates, and we did that at the end of last year, really for a multi-year period. So those are locked in. We've got real clear visibility to capacity and rates, which is good for us to have, so that's baked into our guidance. You mentioned diesel, of course, the fuel surcharges are at historic levels and increases from what we've seen over in the past. We've assumed those amounts current levels for the rest of the year. So we've not assumed an improvement in fuel surcharges. And then with regards to wage rates, we said this before, I mean, obviously, we're going to remain competitive out there with our crew and out in the field, and getting the best talent that we have, but any anticipated increases, whether it's based on mandated minimum wage increases by state or anything that we anticipate has been baked into our guidance.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yeah. So unless the states change this year there is -- I think we've got everything baked in and I wouldn't expect any other surprise changes coming in this year. All right. Thanks, Michael.

Michael Montani

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joel Anderson for closing remarks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us. While the first quarter as you can tell was certainly challenging, we are focused on being nimble as we navigate this dynamic operating environment. We continue to believe Five Below as an innovative and resilient retailer with a long runway for growth. We have an industry-leading new store payback model and a strong balance sheet, none of that changes. We remain focused on delivering incredible value and quality merchandise with a commitment to strong expense management and cost discipline. These attributes are distinguishing characteristics, which will serve us well as we continue to grow. In closing, wish you all a great summer and an end to the school year, our summer fun list is out there with amazing list of products. And as always, I encourage you to shop at Five Below for all your outdoor pool and beach needs. We look forward to speaking with you again at the end of the summer. Have a great evening. Thanks everybody.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.