Earnings Labs

FLEX LNG Ltd. (FLNG)

Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, May 23, 2024

$31.82

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Transcript

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

[Call Starts Abruptly] Management and I will be joined by my colleague, Knut Traaholt, our CFO, who will run you through the numbers a bit later in the presentation. We are doing this presentation live from Nydalen, Oslo, and following the presentation we will do our Q&A session, where you can ask questions with the chat function or send the email to ir@flexlng.com. And as usual, we have some nice gifts for you, for the best question. The best question wins the Flex LNG Summer kit, consisting of, of course, our caps, the Flex and the city sunglasses, both in pink and black. We have a water bottle, so you can hydrate. This nice Flex, Just Flex It T-shirt, running shirt, I was using it yesterday and with sunny Oslo now 26 degrees, it's also nice to have some sunscreen, Flex on the Beach sunscreen, and we also have a big Flex on the Beach bathing towel here. So hope you can provide some good questions. That's the most fun part of this presentation. So before beginning, I just going to remind you about our disclaimer. We will be providing some forward-looking statements, some non-GAAP measures and they are limit to completeness of detail. So we also recommend you to read our earnings report published today as well. Okay. Let's kick off the highlights numbers very much in line with what we have guided. Revenues came in at $90.2 million, which was, as mentioned in line with guidance of approximately $90 million. Our net income and adjusted net income came in at $33.2 million and $37.9 million, respectively, giving our earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share of $0.62 or $0.70, respectively here. Knut will give you some more details on these numbers. It's basically in our adjusted numbers.…

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

Thank you, Oystein. So let's have a look at the financial highlights for the quarter. Revenues in the first quarter came in at $90.2 million or that calculates to a Time Charter per day of $76,500. So the lower numbers for the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, that's explained by the seasonal softer spot market impacting the revenues from Flex Artemis as well as some off-hire days for Flex Constellations, while she entered drydocking. Operating expenses in the first quarter is lower, at $16.7 million, and the reduction is explained by timing effects of when we expense certain operating expenses. As you may recall, in the fourth quarter we had a number of swing sets expensed on our fleet, while we had zero in the first quarter. So operating expenses will be a bit lumpy in between quarters, but we stick to our guidance of OpEx per day of $14,900 for the full year. Interest expenses during the quarter is fairly flat quarter-on-quarter. But as you see on the gain on derivatives, in the first quarter, we booked a net gain of $7.3 million. That includes $700,000 in unrealized gains and $6.6 million in realized gains. During the quarter, we have also amended one of our interest rate swap. We have reduced the duration of a $50 million interest rate swap and thereby we have received a cash proceed of $5 million. Now we'll come back to that later. That results in net income for the quarter of $33.2 million or $0.62 per share. If we look at the adjusted numbers, here we adjust out unrealized gains of both interest rate derivatives and from foreign currencies. So we strip out $700,000 for the interest rate derivatives, and also the FX loss of $400,000. And then we add back the…

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Okay, great. Thanks. Yeah, let's look at the market. Best way to start looking at the market is to look at export and imports. As you can see here on the left-hand side of the graph, there are three major exporters of LNG, with US now becoming the largest one, 29 million tons in the first four months of the year. Australia and Qatar neck on neck, both of them 28. So those three countries are the major exporters. Despite Russia and sanctions on Russia, there's really not any widespread sanctions on Russian LNG, although there are Russian, sanctions on the new project from Russia Arctic LNG 2, which I will cover more. But despite this, Russia is still growing and maintaining the fourth largest exporter of LNG. Malaysia the fifth and then there's a lot of other countries in the other bracket, including Norway. On the import side, we have seen a mark shift this year in where the cargos are flowing. Europe entered storage levels at a very high level, and have been lucky two winters in a row in terms of the winter temperatures and thus the gas requirements. And with ample storage levels in Europe. Europe has been pulling back from the market, and which has also sent prices down to very competitive levels. And this has opened up a lot of demand in Asia and especially emerging Asia. China, despite somewhat disappointing growth in China after scrapping off the COVID policies a bit more than a year ago, they're growing very healthy, 15% up and have become once again the biggest importer. Japan flat together with South Korea and also Taiwan, which are the more mature Asian economies. India, a lot of economic growth in India and optimism about India lately growing at the same…

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for the questions you have sent in. You mentioned, maybe you should kick off with one of the comments you mentioned at the end here. There's been a number of comments regarding the dividend and sustainability of the dividend.

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Yeah.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

Do you have any more to elaborate? And there's also comments -- questions about what the decision factors are for the Board? We have listed a number of them.

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Nine, I believe it is.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

Yeah. So maybe you can elaborate around the decision process and your view on the sustainability of the dividend level?

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Yeah. I think, there's a couple of items. Of course, we look at earnings. So, I think you know, the best measure and that's why we have the adjusted numbers is the adjusted earnings per share of $0.70. Because there we only include the realized gains and not the unrealized gains. So we are paying out slightly more in our earnings today, but it's not much. It's slightly more in terms of how we look at it. Of course, we have a contract portfolio. And as I mentioned we do have ships coming off charters later in this decade from '26, '27, '28 onwards, where we do see the ability to possibly recontract those ships at higher rate levels. Another factor is the fact that we have $383 million of cash and every quarter, we are paying down our debt. So the kind of amount -- once your debt gets lower, also your interest cost gets lower. So that means that when you have $383 million of cash, we could do either two things. We could do what you would call a dividend recap. We don't need to have $383 million on a balance sheet. We could probably pay a huge one-off dividend of $250 million or so and then rather stay on a lower cash balance level. However, we have structured a lot of this cash as a $400 million revolver. So we don't really pay the cost of having it, the cost of carrying it. We reduce the revolver during the interim of quarters, where we are paying around 70 basis points to have it on standby until '28. So it's more about those kind of factors. We do think options will be declared. A lot of these options have higher rates. So we do think that eventually,…

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

And Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG asked, with no maturities until 2028, have you given the thought of prepaying some of the debt to increase the financial flexibility? And I guess, as we discussed in the presentation, we have the $400 million RCF. And in between quarters we use that -- we prepay it down to reduce the interest rate cost, and in essence, it is a reduction of that in between quarters. But we maintained the commitment, which, in fact, in our view increases our financial flexibility, if there are investments that can be made, but also to support the business case in general.

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Hey, it's like having a checkbook ready with very limited cost, and we can jump on any opportunity. You know, we have in the past provided bids on several ships, a lot of ships to be honest. Where we can then put a bid in on those ships without having to go to an investment bank or some bankers to underwrite the financing for us. We can bid because we have the revolver there and gives us a lot of flexibility. If we pay it back, we don't get it back. So it reduces the flexibility.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

And that segues exactly into the next topic of how to spend it and investments. Certain questions are more specific. We've been sort of muted on newbuildings on the speculative side, but the question more on the opportunities to order newbuildings backed by a long-term contract.

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Lately, it's been mostly Qatar being active in the tender market, ordering more than 100 ships based on these tenders and contracts. We have not participated in that for reasons we have explained in the past. So there's been very few tenders for new buildings. Also being a reflection of the fact that new building prices are high. Lead time is high, once you have risk free rate at 5.3% and you have to wait for four years to get the ship, that also drags up the -- the cost of that ship. So that $260 million might easily become $280 million and $285 million when you're also adding in supervision costs. So that means if you do a calculation on it, that's why you get to these rates of $100,000. Today, there's a lot of modern ships on the water MEGI/XDF, which means that instead of doing tenders for new builds, more people are looking at existing tonnage. We find it more favorable to rather bid in on all ships. We have Constellation coming up in '25 or '26. We have Ranger coming up in '27. We have Aurora, Volunteer coming up in '28, which means that we can rather bid on the basis of those existing ships, and probably be more competitive than building a new ship. That said, of course, we are looking at it from time-to-time, but we find it more interesting to market our existing ships. We are looking sometimes for buying second-hand tonnage. So far not been successful. Being successful bidding and buying ships is really about having the highest bid. So that doesn't mean necessarily make it successful if you win. So we try to always measure kind of if we are buying other ships, we don't want to impact our dividend capacity negatively. So if buying ships and getting a lower return on that, then paying our dividends is what we have to do, we rather pay out the dividend.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

And then there's a specific question on ship technology and size. And would you consider 180,000 cubic for any advantages by that size?

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Yeah, our advantage is it's 6,000 cubic bigger. So that's the main upside. There is downside, however, it makes it less -- slightly less tradable possibly. You have to do Ship Shore Compatibility Studies. It's a bit easier when most people are doing the 174,000 size, which is the kind of the market standard. But for sure we're open to look at 180,000. There are pros and cons. What we are most focused is on price. So we will measure that towards the price. If buying 180,000 is a lot more expensive, then well maybe not. If it's basically the same price, well, maybe we do it.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

And there we have a question from Scott Leong in SSY Global. It was a general perception that newer is better, but commercially there's not too much of a difference between a newbuilding today versus our vessels. Can you say something about the commercial attractiveness of our vessels versus a newbuilding?

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Yes. You're right, Scott. There are like three or four different technologies. You have the steam and then you, of course, have new steam and old steam, and then you have the tri fuel and in that tri fuel segment you also have a bit, the first generation tri fuels and then the second generation, and some size difference. And then once you get into the two-stroke, you have a modern diesel engine for our ship, which can burn LNG. And the thermal efficiency of that engine is basically the same as all ships as the new builds, it's around 50% to 52% thermal efficiency. So on the ships they're building today, it's more about adding more equipment. So maybe they're adding a full relic. We have full relic on three out of four ships. We have partial relic on four or four ships. So that is a factor. Maybe you add this air lubrication, which is kind of compressor pushing bubbles under the hull to reduce drag or friction through the water, which optimize speed a bit. Some energy-saving devices, but a lot of energy-saving devices, we are, you know, retrofitting to our ships. So there's very few differences in terms of our new build today and the newbuildings we have today. And efficiency is more the same. I think there's one benefit of having a ship that's been trading for some while. It's been to a lot of ports. It has already checked all the boxes in terms of the Ship Shore Compatibility Studies. So it's not like you have to do that work all over again. When you have a new ship, it's been proven. Sometimes you have some new hiccups, when you take delivery of the ships. We have found out of those hiccups, and we have corrected those hiccups, which means you have a ship which has a proven track record in terms of operational performance. So, I think people always like new, but all ships are as good as new. And if you look at the pictures from some of our drydockings, these ships look brand new once they're getting out of the dock after a five-year special survey.

Knut Traaholt

Analyst

I think that concludes the Q&A session for this time.

Oystein Kalleklev

Operator

Yeah. Okay. The gift. Yeah. Let's give it to Scott then, because it's a good question. So, Scott, you will be the lucky winner of all the stuff I showed earlier, as well as this bathing towel, Flex on the Beach. So I wish you a very good summer. I hope you enjoy it. Remember to use the sunscreen. And we will be back in August, hopefully, when it's still summer, with our Q2 numbers, which we have guided today. And as I mentioned, we do think Q3 will be stronger, because then we have all ships in operation. And typically, rates will be higher in August than they are in May, usually, historically, we are starting to be sniffing on six-digit numbers once you're getting into end August-September. So for us it doesn't matter that much. 12 out -- we're fully covered for the year. 12 of the 13 ships are on fixed higher, but we have one ship linked to the spot market, so we like the spot market to be good. And typically a good spot market also drags up the term rates. So with that, thank you for joining and have a good summer. End of Q&A: