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Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 25, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone to FEMSA's Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] During this conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning FEMSA's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management expectations and are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which can materially impact the company's actual performance. At this time, it's my pleasure to turn the conference over to Javier Astaburuaga, FEMSA's CFO. Please go ahead, sir. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to FEMSA's Third Quarter 2013 Results Earnings Conference Call. As always, Juan Fonseca and José Castro are with us today as well. Before we begin discussing this quarter's results, we should take a moment to recap the announcement we made yesterday regarding change to the most senior positions at FEMSA. As you know, José Antonio Fernández proposed to our board, and the board agreed, to separate the positions of Chairman and CEO. Starting in January of next year, José Antonio will be Executive Chairman and Carlos will be CEO. With John Santa María becoming CEO of Coca-Cola FEMSA. We are convinced that the changes will allow José Antonio and Carlos to focus even more on the tasks at hand, while providing continuity to what has been a very successful tenure. And to start, John will bring a unique track record to his new role. Yesterday's press release is very self-explanatory in terms of the rationale for the changes. But we will be happy to elaborate during the question-and-answer session today, if you wish so. Moving on, as we normally do in our calls, today we will focus on the consolidated figures for FEMSA among the results of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Lauren Torres with HSBC.

Lauren Torres - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst

My question relates to the economy and consumer behavior. You mentioned that you're not really seeing any meaningful signs of recovery. But if we kind of exclude September, it seemed like the prior months were good for the quarter. I don't know if there's any way of kind of quantifying that or giving us a sense of maybe what same-store sales growth would have been on a more normalized basis if September wasn't as weak as we did see. And with that said, I guess, if we do expect this trend to continue into next year, we did see some margin improvement and you mentioned the benefit of some promotion-relating marketing resources and pricing strategies. I was curious if you could just maybe talk a little bit more about that and what other initiatives you may have in place if you do see this softness continue? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure, Lauren. Basically as I said, it's a quarter very hard to read because we were, I would say, struck in the quarter on a high note after a very, very bad second quarter of the year. We were all expecting a much better third quarter. And as I said, we saw sequential marginal improvements in July and August, which were not regretfully sustained in September but -- due to weather reasons. So we are, as I said, looking at some marginal improvements, but to a -- looking at the experience for the first 9 months of the year, I think it's better for us to be cautious about if this -- the sequential marginal improvement is there to stay. And we will need, I think, to wait for at least the rest of the year to see how things play out. It seems -- and going back into, again,…

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Lore Serra with Morgan Stanley.

Lore Serra - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about at the OXXO level, kind of 2 things. One is when you look at what you're seeing -- I mean, I guess you don't want to talk about what October was, but I guess you have some sense of how one-off September was. But kind of looking at what you're seeing at the store level, I mean telephony sounds like it's a secular change that's just not coming back. I mean, you have a different view. But what other categories can replace that or enhance it? And is there anything you're seeing in terms of the competitive -- not competitive, the consumer environment that's telling you that there's really something more profound going on? And then separately, if you think about the taxation changes, I understand it's complicated and it's going to affect different parts of FEMSA in different ways. But I'd appreciate any thoughts you have on OXXO, specifically from the OXXO perspective. You mentioned border towns. I suppose that's pretty significant and that's going to hurt. I don't know if large price increases from suppliers actually hurts OXXO or not because it gets a margin. So just even on any preliminary thoughts about how we should think about that would be really helpful. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure, Lore. A lot of questions under the umbrella of your one question, as always. I'm glad to try to elaborate a little bit on some of them and to come back to you if I'd miss one. I may start talking about these implications on the tax effects, the last part of your question. My concern here is we're still looking at trends in some retail formats in Mexico, particularly departmental stores in which performance is not as affected.…

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Luca Cipiccia with Goldman Sachs.

Luca Cipiccia - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

A follow-up on what you were just discussing briefly before. When we think about potential addition of new formats, the acquisitions that we've seen, the Doña Tota, the pharmacies, so how should we think about them in the future in the context of what is happening currently in Mexico? Is it more likely that you're going to concentrate further in terms -- on OXXO in terms of format, so incorporating some of the things that these acquisitions will bring? Or we will have a parallel development of these formats as a stand-alone, additional change? Maybe if you can share some of the thoughts on this as we look in 2014. And on the Drug Store business, if there is any update or an update on the activities on what has been done over the past few months and as well what should we expect going forward? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure, sure, Luca. I guess that the ways to think about our intentions here is quite simple. It's -- we think there are learnings from us participating in this pharmacy sector, as well as in the fast-food offering that we can really leverage within the OXXO store. And by that, I mean, a number of, not only, I would say, synergies but also better practices and skills that will help us to improve the way we present to our consumers in the OXXO stores, the very limited offering on health, on personal care products and also on fast-food offerings. So that's -- as a starting point, I would say, we feel that there is some important elements that contribute to the development or the value proposition in the OXXO store by us now trying to learn and contribute to the development of these 2 new lines of businesses that we…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Alex Robarts with Citi.

Alexander Robarts - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

Listen, I was keen then to focus a little bit on the -- in the same spirit as last question, the M&A outlook. I mean, you -- for OXXO, so you've talked about adapting business plans to the new reality as you explain them. And kind of a lot of this is resources on promotions that you're allocated in and negotiating with your suppliers. But does the new reality, as you do describe it, or the current environment kind of impact your M&A outlook for OXXO. We've seen 3 deals, right, in the last 11 months. You have the firepower. How should we think about capital allocation, capital deployment in these -- with these targets that as we look out over the next few years? And I guess, when we think about QSR, it seems to me there's a little bit more fertile ground vis-à-vis that space has fragmentation and such versus the pharma. But it would be great if you could give us a sense of what to expect and as far as the capital allocation and deployment in this area, that would be great. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure. So Alex, good to hear you. I would say, it's very simple. It's -- going back to my previous answer, in the case of pharmacies, we will continue looking for regional chains that fits well with the geography. And by that, I mean, we can also think on one side on complementary adjacent territories to the beachheads we already have. We are opening new ones. We think we have the capability to stretch up a little bit more, even the presence in the national territory. So we have a number of, I would say, processes in place in trying to understand better and trying to get closer to people…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Sambuddha Ray with JPMorgan. Sambuddha Ray - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: This is Sambuddha from Alan's team at JPMorgan. I mean, we had a question with respect to OXXO's CapEx and working capital. You already have a strong cash conversion cycle. Just to hear your view, if there could be more improvements there. And also we note, there's a slightly higher CapEx, almost 8.5 percentage of sales in OXXO versus 5% on an average. So the question is, how does the incorporation of Doña Tota and the Pharmacy business change your incremental working capital and CapEx needs going forward? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure. Sure Sambuddha. This business is at the early stages, as I just mentioned, are very, very small. And you can see that by our difference in organic growth and reported growth. So this is a very, very small component still. Of course, the economic structure of the business is just quite different. In terms of the pharmacies, I will say, it's not quite different from the OXXO in terms of requirements to open stores. It's -- depending on the size of the store, tend to be smaller, even because you don't have a cold chamber and things like that, on one hand. The sector in which it plays, it's also very favorable in terms of the retail sector, in terms of managing working capital. So that doesn't, as well, tend to deviate a lot from the structure of the OXXO. Margins, of course, as a starting point is lower, the scale is lower. So there's no reason why it shouldn't be. And the requirement of CapEx, again, to produce $1 of scale, it's similar, I would say, maybe a little bit lower. But the other business is quite different, it should have higher margins as any fast-food offering should. But again, it's much less intensive in working capital, as you can imagine. Because we don't have to have the store full of gorditas for people to come in. The point of the matter is to have them very, very fresh. So you don't have to have a lot of working capital. So all in all, my main message to you would be, very small still, not quite so different from any dimension you just asked.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Belinda Hill with Schroders.

Belinda Hill

Analyst · Schroders.

I have 2 questions, actually. The first is can you give us a sense of what the potential impact might be, if any, on cash flows from, specifically, the fiscal consolidation regime that's being discussed now? And secondly, can you give us a sense of the total debt at the OXXO level, at the Comercio level? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure. Sure, Belinda. The first one is basically, we do not have an impact. We have been, I would say -- let me put it this way, we have been lucky of having only businesses which have been making profits for a long time. So we don't really have a lot of tax loss carryforwards or bad limits [ph] located between the companies. And we have also been very, as always, I would say, conservative in the sense of tax planning, complying with all obligations and, again, looking for efficiency but not being very aggressive on that front. So we don't really have any implication on cash flows for the changes in the consolidation regime from a tax perspective. And on the second one, basically, FEMCO is almost an unlevered business. If I remember correctly, it's calculated on $100 million in debt in its balance sheet, but it has more cash than that. So it's pretty much basically unlevered.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Karla Miranda with GBM.

Karla Miranda

Analyst

Javier, I had a question regarding a CapEx for 2014. Yesterday, Hector stated that as the fiscal reform should be approved the MXN 1 per liter should be approved. They would be a reducing CapEx for the next year in Mexico. Would that be the same case in OXXO? Or should we still see the strong openings going forward? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure, Karla. Yes, in Coca-Cola FEMSA, you will have this effect of, again, the tax reform now of, again, creating some capacity, which we will be utilizing in 2014. So CapEx should be lower. In OXXO, we don't think it's going to be lower. We think it's going to -- we're going to remain basically at the same level that it will close in 2013. We don't think that there's a reason for us to really change our thinking in terms of store openings. And of course, the more we progress, we will need to, again, invest in the maintenance and remodelation of the older stores that we have been opening in the past 10, 15 years. So we don't see any reason why CapEx for OXXOs will decline. So all in all, I would say, we look at 2014 numbers, the combination of the 2 and some other additional investments we are thinking of doing on our logistics business will call for a CapEx for 2014 for FEMSA in similar levels as the one we should be close in 2013.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions today. I'll now turn the conference back over to Mr. Astaburuaga for additional or closing remarks. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Thank you very much for attending the conference call, and have a great weekend, everyone. See you next time. Bye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to replay the webcast for this call, you may do so at FEMSA's Investor Relations website. This concludes our conference today. Thank you for your participation, and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.