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Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Kirk and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Franco-Nevada Corporation Second Quarter Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Mr. Stefan Axell, you may begin your conference.

Stefan Axell

Analyst

Thank you, Kirk. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning to discuss Franco-Nevada's Q2 2016 results. Accompanying our call is a presentation which is available on our website at Franco-Nevada.com, where you’ll also find our full financial results. Sandip Rana, CFO of Franco-Nevada will provide a brief review of our results which will be followed by Q&A period. Before we begin the formal remarks, we'd like to remind participants that some of today's commentary may contain forward-looking information, and refer you to a detailed cautionary note on slide 2 of the presentation. I'll now turn the call over to Sandip Rana, CFO of Franco-Nevada.

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Good morning everyone. As you all have seen from the press release issued yesterday that company had another strong quarter of solid financial results. This is a testament to the quality and strength of our portfolio and overall success of our business model. The portfolio continues to deliver growth and generate significant cash flow where it is being further enhanced with the recent Antamina and Antapaccay stream transactions. With respect to our financial results, second quarter of 2016 was another quarter of records. The company reported its highest amount for Gold Equivalent Ounces, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA this quarter, which was due to a combination of higher deals received as well as stronger gold and silver prices. It has been some time since the average gold price per quarter was this high, where it has been $1259 per ounce in second quarter. Turning to slide three, the chart illustrates the GEO breakdown by commodity for second quarter 2016 compared to second quarter 2015. You can see that GEOs in total have increased over 36% year-over-year. This increase is due to increases in both gold and silver ounces received, primarily the result of the Antamina and Antapaccay transactions. Actual gold ounces have increased 26% versus prior year while silver GEOs are up over 260%. Slide 4 provides a breakdown of where the GEO growth arose when compared to second quarter of 2015. Our core gold and silver assets did produce less GEOs during the quarter which was mainly due to the timing of production and recognition of revenue by the company. A large portion of the decrease is due to Candelaria but you will recall that 2015 was an abnormally high production year for Candelaria with 2016 to be more representative of what expectations are going forward. Year-over-year GEOs from Candelaria…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your first question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu from CIBC. Your line is open.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Hi, thanks Sandip and Stefan and congrats on another strong quarter here. Maybe a few questions, maybe first off on Cobre Panama, Sandip as you mentioned you are now looking for a contribution or funding of $120 million to $140 million, that’s a bit lower than what you have previously expected, is that just based on the fact that the spending at Cobre Panama is at a slower rate than previously expected?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

No, I think in second quarter our first -– gave an updated number on what they expected to spend this year which is in line with what they had originally. Just that we are further into the year we have a more accurate number, that’s all it is. I think we reduced it by $10 million from 130 to 150 to 120 to 140.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

And Sandip could you remind us when are you expecting any kind of contribution coming from the Cobre Panama royalty?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Cobre Panama should startup towards the end of 2018 with first real production to Franco in 2019.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Great and then in terms of as you mentioned, the total obligation is $1 billion, when would you be expecting to fund the remainder of that $1 billion?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

So, the remainder would be over the next three years so we – guidance for this year. So we would expect 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Okay, great and maybe a broader question here Sandip, as you mentioned you have the revenue in Q2 51% was coming from Latin America, is that by design or is that just happens to be where all the different opportunities are, as we can see it was a lot of precious metal by product production coming from base metal assets, is that sort of like the key opportunity at this juncture?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Yes, so it is not by design, it's where the opportunities are. The large deals that we’ve completed over the last two plus years and if you go back to Cobre Panama, the large copper assets with the byproducts are predominantly in Latin America and that’s where the opportunities are. We still look at assets in other parts of the world, just the recent transactions has led to that 50% of revenue being contributed from Latin America.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Great, and then maybe one last question here on Palmarejo, Sandip when did the minimum -- when was the minimum reached in Q3, so how should we model that in terms of how much of the quarter is going to be the old kind of agreement and how much of that will be under the new agreement?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

So, it has just recently reached this month so two thirds of the quarter would be under Palmarejo and then one third would be under Guadalupe. There will be a drop in production under Guadalupe because there is no minimum in place now. Initially it shouldn’t be that significant a drop.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Yes, and actually maybe one more question here on Goldstrike, as we can see it was a good quarter in Q2, was that in any way due to the fact that it is an NPI and inherently speaking, NPIs provide a bit more leverage and if that’s the case are there any other NPIs that we should be aware of?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

So, Goldstrike the NPI was the largest component of the increase although the NSR was higher as well over the prior year. So it wasn’t increase in production on our lands. In terms of the other NPI, the significant ones are Hemlo and Musselwhite. We have an idea as to what -- how they are performing but usually we get throughups in Q4 and over the last few years that’s when we really got into more accurate NPI I would say. It has always been more positive than what we’ve expected.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Great, that’s all I have. Thanks once again.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Hi Sandip, congrats on the results. Question on Antamina, it was performing above your initial 40,000 ounce guidance, is there a revised guidance number at this point?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

We have not given up public guidance number but we do expect it to be the 40,000 GEOs that we have provided previously.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Okay, and then can you just comment about where we are in the CAPEX cycle for mining companies at this point, you guys must be on the cutting edge there of people coming to you with project. Do you think we are 6, 12, 18 months away from really the miner starting to put the shovel in the ground to build new projects, can you just comment about that?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

So Jorge, I guess we are seeing two things and we are going to split between the different industries Gold and the base metals. Base metals are still in the cycle of deleveraging and so we’re seeing opportunities coming out of that. Obviously on the gold side that’s changed. We see a good amount of projects. People are now looking to move to financing, streaming maybe a portion of that. It really depends on what the equity markets look like and currently the equity market is pretty strong. So I think we should see in the next 6, 12 months a number of projects getting to the point that’s been fully financed in the gold sector.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Okay, so I just recap 6 to 12 months in the gold sector?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Yes.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your next question comes from the line of Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open

Thank you. Is the deleveraging in the base metal side still happening, you suggested it was but it seems to have slowed down, is the big opportunity still out there now or they have started to dry up?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open

I think we’re still seeing a good mix of opportunities Greg. I agree with you in terms of the pace but I think there is still some good prospects.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay and just little clarity on Sudbury, we don’t get a lot of information, the PGM production was up this quarter in terms of ounces. How do you see that trending going forward and what kind of mine life is there left?

Sandip Rana

Analyst · Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open

So, Q2 was a very good quarter in terms of production. We don’t have full visibility on what to expect going forward but it was one of the higher production quarter, so it could be a one off. In terms of visibility and mine life we’re expecting production from the [indiscernible] mine up until 2022. So it does have a significant life still. It is just that with the underground mine the reserves are just two to three years out but mine life is to the -- in excess of 2020. And the expiration is still have been positive there it’s still open at depth. And it’s getting higher grades as you go in deeper so we are very confident that the mine life will be extended.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay, great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I’ll turn the call back over to the presenters.

Sandip Rana

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open

Thank you, Kirk. I just want to remind you that we expect to release our Q3 2016 results on November 7th, with a conference call held the following morning. I want to thank you for your interest in Franco-Nevada.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.