Patrick Ryan
Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead
Yes. Actually, when you – as I mentioned, we’re liability-sensitive. So when you run our models over a 12 and 24-month period, we actually do a little bit better. But it obviously takes a little time to catch up to ultimately get to the point where you’re doing better. And we were seeing that start to play out prior to Fed’s more recent moves. And now, it’s sort of – we got to do it all over again. But I do think as you look out towards the end of the year and into next year, all else equal, which is obviously a loaded statement, because there’s a lot of things that can change between now and then. But just running the models and running the numbers, it does start to show the benefit of the liability reduction outpacing the upfront reduction in asset yield. So we would expect to see some improvement later this year, early next year. But the other thing that is a little bit of an unknown is, what’s going to happen to the overall lending environment? I think, what you’re seeing right now is, even though benchmark rates, Treasury, Federal Home Loan Bank, whatever you use as your benchmark are obviously very low. We’re seeing spreads widen a bit. And part of that is some uncertainty from the credit underwriting side. And part of it, quite honestly, is what seems to be a retrenchment, at least, for the time being from some of the non-bank lenders, namely the insurance companies and the CMBS providers that may create an opportunity, where the benchmarks are lower, but as spreads widen, we may not see quite the reduction in asset yields that you might see in a robust credit environment associated with the types of drops that the Fed just witness. So I think Steve is right. Q2 probably is not an improvement in margin for us and potentially decline. But if things stabilize, I think, we can start to see things improve later in the year.