Earnings Labs

Frontline Ltd. (FRO)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Q4 2014 Frontline Ltd. Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robert MaCleod. Please go ahead, sir.

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

Good afternoon. Welcome to Frontline's Q4 Presentation. This presentation will proceed as follows: Inger will start with the Q4 highlights, the main transactions for the quarter and a financial review. I will then follow up with earnings and market factors for the quarter, the VLCC and Suezmax fleet developments, newbuilding prices, Frontline's present situation and finally, the market outlook. Inger, please go ahead.

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Thanks, Robert, and good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Moving to Slide 4, Highlights and Transactions. Frontline agreed with Ship Finance in July 2014 to terminate the long-term charter parties for the 3 VLCCs, Front Opalia, Front Comanche and Front Commerce and Ship Finance sold the vessels to unrelated third parties. These charter parties were terminated in November on the 4th, 12th and the 19th. In October 2014, Frontline bought $17.8 million of its convertible bonds at a purchase price of 91.6%. And in February 2015, Frontline bought another $33.3 million of its convertible bond at a purchase price of 99%. In October and December 2014, Frontline entered into a private agreement to exchange $45.5 million of its convertible bond for an aggregate of 13 million shares and an aggregate cash payment of $19.6 million plus accrued interest. The remaining outstanding balance on the convertible bond loan is currently $93.4 million and the Board is confident that Frontline will be able to repay all of its commercial bond loan in April 2014 -- '15, sorry. In January 2015, Frontline took delivery of its second and final Suezmax newbuilding, the Front Idun. Frontline has issued 10.9 million new shares under the ATM program during January and February 2015. And in January 2015, Frontline increased the ATM limit from $100 million to $150 million. Then moving to Slide 5, Financial Highlights, and Slide 6, Income Statement. Frontline reports a net loss of $13 million, equivalent to a loss per share of $0.12 in the fourth quarter compared with a net loss of $59.6 million and a loss per share of $0.60 for the preceding quarter. The net loss attributable to Frontline in the fourth quarter includes a noncash gain of $40.3 million arising on the termination of the charter parties…

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

Thank you very much, Inger. Let's look at Slide 11, earnings and market factors. The quarter started off at very low levels, almost as low as we saw in Q2. The markets picked up quickly, though, driven by improved demand. For the VLCCs, it was virtually a nonstop improvement throughout the quarter. The Suezmax has had a spike similar to the one seen earlier in the year and then came back down. Overall, our Suezmaxes had a satisfactory quarter, whilst we are not that content with the returns for Frontline's VLCCs. As can be seen on the graph for both segments, the average earnings bases TD3 and TD5, are well above our vessel earnings for the quarter. There are 2 reasons for this: Firstly, our vessels are fixed forward. So at the start of the quarter, a substantial portion of our vessel days will already have been booked. Secondly, an oil price drop is instantly reflected in the index rates, whilst on ships you burn the existing fuel before you see the effects. In the falling shipping markets or rising oil markets, you will obviously have the opposite effect. Let's move to Page 12, the VLCC fleet. There are currently 638 vessels in the world fleet, of which around 200 are controlled by the oil companies, whilst the balance is trading spots. There were 5 vessels delivered in the quarter, one removed, which in turn makes little difference to the fleet developments. Overall, we think the fleet is relatively balanced, and our hope is that further consolidation will take place. The orderbook is at around 13% of the present fleet. This will outnumber scrapping for the period, at least if we stay at the current levels at the spot markets. [Audio Gap] Page 13, which is the Suezmax fleet. This…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our first question from Jon Chappell from Evercore.

Jonathan B. Chappell - Evercore ISI, Research Division

Analyst

Inger, quick question for you. What's the remainder on the new upsized ATM facility? How much is left there?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

It's approximately $50 [ph] million, a bit more.

Jonathan B. Chappell - Evercore ISI, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then Robert, you've been with the organization for a short period of time. I'm sure you're still kind of learning the ropes a little bit. But you mentioned you're going to reach an important threshold by being able to pay back this convert that's obviously been a huge overhang in the company for a couple of years now, so that's great. And then you want to rebuild the company. So how do you go about rebuilding it with the limited liquidity that exists today? Does something need to be done in coordination with Frontline 2012? Or can Frontline Ltd. rebuild on its own?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

It is something -- we're looking at various options and it's something that we will come back on and we cannot be more specific at the moment.

Jonathan B. Chappell - Evercore ISI, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. 2 just kind of market-related questions for you. One on the storage. I mean, you mentioned you had 4 ships that are hired for 12 months. I guess there's some concern that these are being hired potentially for storage and then are kind of reletting into the market immediately, so they're not really removing those vessels from the fleet. What are the terms on those? Are you just giving the vessel to the charter for 12 months and they can do whatever they want? Are there any specifics regarding the amount of time that needs to be used for storage?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

No, this is -- it's fixed as a time charter. So the charters are free to trade spot or store. And as I said earlier, with the narrow contango here it's -- I think slightly a bit more go will go in the spot market than we thought a month ago, but at the same time [Audio Gap] So of our ships here, we are pretty certain that 2 are going to go straight in storage and likely 3. But these things could change, so our current estimate is between 15 and 20 of the 40 ships booked.

Jonathan B. Chappell - Evercore ISI, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And then final one. You mentioned the ferry conversions. Obviously there's been a lot of press about that. Can you talk about the timing? We've seen 2 examples already where Scorpio [ph] has converted 2 sets of dry bulk ships, and the actual delivery dates for the converted tankers are 12 months forward from when the original delivery dates were. Is this kind of standard? Do the yards even know they have to slot the steel? Do they need to get pipings and coatings? And if something was scheduled for a call it December 2015 delivery as a dry-bulk ship, is it feasible that it could be delivered in December '15 as a tanker? Or would it be significantly in the future?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

This is -- it's sort of case-by-case. Some yards will swap deliveries and do all sorts. It's impossible to give you a clear answer.

Operator

Operator

We'll now take our next question from Herman Hildan from Clarksons Platou Securities.

Herman Hildan - RS Platou Markets AS, Research Division

Analyst

My first question is on the cash breakeven level on the general note before rebuilding the company or actually disregarding that. Do you feel like the $26,000 is, call it a comfortable level to have a cash breakeven for the current fleet? Or would you work to try to reduce this going forward?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

This breakeven rate include, of course, the dry dock budgets that we have for the year. And it will be -- we will dry dock more VLCCs than Suezmaxes this year. That's why the breakeven rates for the VLCCs are a bit higher than you saw last time. Whether it's comfortable or not, I mean, this is obviously, of course, a consequence of mainly the lease structure with Ship Finance. And as you know, the rates are a bit high in that context. So what the future will bring with respect to the breakeven rates, it's a bit early to tell. I mean, we'll get back to that, as Robert said earlier.

Herman Hildan - RS Platou Markets AS, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And furthermore, you have a few vessels [indiscernible] turning 20 years this year; a few VLCCs turning 15. How do you kind of weigh taking those through dry docking versus, call it selling them for scrap and renewing the fleet?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

That will be considered on a case-by-case basis.

Herman Hildan - RS Platou Markets AS, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then finally, could you also -- there's been some debate on the speed of the tanker fleet. Could you also give your version of how you view speed as a consequence on the supply side in the tanker markets with the lower prices in mind?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

I think on the speed issue, the slower folks on speeding up, we are keeping the lower speeds, but it's [indiscernible] you might speed up here on specific boats and this is always subject to change for any owner. But I think when it comes to the speed, what has not been focused that much on here recently is the speeding down. And looking at the contango, I think there will be cases here where charters will want to arrive in April rather than March, for example, because of the contango in the oil price. So I think you will have some slowdown and you will also have charters that will request you to arrive at these charter ports and not just hand your readiness and waiting for -- and then virtually be placed on floating storage whilst on a spot charter. But this is obviously -- nothing's set in stone here. So it's a complex picture on the speed.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Matthias Detjen from Morgan Stanley.

Matthias Detjen

Analyst

I have another question on the market, about the second-hand market for the vessels. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color there, how price is developed and maybe as well as the -- some liquidity, how the liquidity is in that market?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

No, say if you take a 15-year-old, for example, you're looking at just over $30 million. And on sort of one-ship deals, I think the liquidity seems to be pretty low at the moment.

Matthias Detjen

Analyst

Okay. And is that sort of like an option for you to renew the fleet by buying vessels in the second-hand market? Have you seen any attractive opportunities there, or not really at this point?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

No, no. At the moment we are focusing on other, rather than a new purchase, we're looking at other things. So we'll get in position for that later.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from John Reardon from Merriman Capital.

John A. Reardon

Analyst

Inger, does the break-even rate include the Ship Finance clawback that's, I believe, in effect right now? That's question #1. Rob, in rates. And finally, the last question is, recently a Saudi Arabian company called Bahri did a bond deal to finance a rather large acquisition. And in the bond prospectus, it said that Saudi Aramco was going to give them a rather large and long-term contract. Has that gone into effect? And has that affected Middle East Gulf to North Asia rates?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

John, let's start with the first question you had. No, the cash breakeven base, they do not include the clawback that Ship Finance has. And that is explained by the clawback is dependent upon what we earn, of course, and it's hard for us to know what we are going to earn in the future. So that's why we keep the cash breakeven rates without the clawback.

John A. Reardon

Analyst

Okay. Can you tell us what you paid in the last quarter on the clawback?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Yes. It's in the Q4 earnings. [indiscernible] the number there, so yes.

John A. Reardon

Analyst

Okay, that's fine.

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

Yes. And then on the spring hit, yes, that's what normally happens. But the x factor here that we think will come into play is that you hear in Q1 the storage ships got fixed, and then into the Q2 and Q3 they will have loaded and will start their storing. So it could slow down at fall. It could actually save the quarter if large ships go in storage. So it's very difficult to say.

John A. Reardon

Analyst

Okay. And then how about the recent transaction that Bahri did and, in turn, got a Saudi Aramco, looks like an exclusive contract? Has that affected rates coming out of the Middle East? Or do you think it might?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

This is the deal. From what we hear, it's been placed on a tender basis for 5 to 10 ships in Korea and it's forward delivery. So it's not having any effect for this year nor next year.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Nicholas Eposito from Pender [ph].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I have 4 questions for you. The first question is about the equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley, how long it will be? And what is the amount of shares issued until today? And do you plan to increase again, because it's the second time that you increased the share agreement, and now it's up to USD 150 million? The second question is, after the convertible bond will be paid in April 2015, do you think that you're issuing new debt or other loans or you think to sell vessel? The third question is if in 2015 you think [indiscernible] about net income? And the last one is about the contango effect. Do you think that how long will be?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Yes. Let's start with your first question. That was really with respect to the equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley. And you were asking -- I'm not sure I really understood your question. You were asking?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, yes. About the equity distribution agreement. Is -- how longer it will be? Because for the shareholder it's very bad because with an agreement for many years, we have many shares on the market today. And if possible, to have how many times you think to reach USD 150 thousand -- [ph] million of countervalue?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

This is -- I can't give you any number of shares which will be issued within that limit because that really depends on the market price, of course, the share price. Yes. So what I said earlier on the call is that the remaining limit is a bit more than $50 million.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

50?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

$50 million, $50 million. Yes, yes. And your other question -- did you have more question with respect to that? No?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. The second question is after the convertible bond will be paid in April 2015, do you think of new debt or new loans or sell to vessel for increase the liquidity position?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Well, that remains to be seen. We will get back to you on these items later. It's a bit early for us to tell you anything about that now. And then?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

And then it was the contango, was your last question?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, yes, last question, please. The contango effect, if you think how long it will be?

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

Yes, the contango is very difficult to predict. We were up to almost $7 over a 6-month period. Now it's down to between $4 and $5 I think is the latest. And this is very much oil price-related. So telling you here the direction of the oil price, I'm not brave enough to give you a clear answer.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay, and the last question is about if in 2015 you go in black on your net income? What do you think about outlook on your net income after 2015?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

I don't think we can comment with guidance or expectations with respect to the stated income in 2015. It's a bit early in a way.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, of course. But you are optimistic or not?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Yes. As Robert said earlier on the call, I guess we are quite optimistic about 2015.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Can you please state your cash balance as of now?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Sorry? Our cash balance? Cash balance?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, cash balance.

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

The cash balance you have in the earnings release. But right now I don't think we can state it. You have the numbers for the fourth quarter.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Well, it's a delicate time for the company. That's why I'm asking for the cash balance.

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

Yes, yes. No, but I understand that. But I don't think we will give away our numbers [indiscernible] in the quarter in a way.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call-- we do have again a question from Nicholas Eposito from Pender [ph].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley, do you have a security line being with Morgan Stanley?

Inger Marie Klemp

Management

No, we don't.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back to the presenters for any further remarks.

Robert Hvide MaCleod

Management

Thank you very much. Thank you all for dialing into this call. And I would like also to thank everyone at Frontline for their excellent efforts. Thank you very much.