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Frontline Ltd. (FRO)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 25, 2022

$36.30

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Transcript

Lars Barstad

Management

Good morning and good afternoon to everyone. Welcome to Frontline’s Second Quarter Earnings Call. As mentioned in our release, this is the quarter where the LR2s took center stage. The market tends to forget that close to a third of our vessel days come from this asset class. We started to see the displacement of Russian crude and products also affecting the Suezmaxes during the second quarter. And finally, the VLCC got a pulse as the second quarter came to an end. Before we get to the Q2 financials and what lies ahead, let’s have a look at the highlights on Slide 3 in the deck. So in the second quarter, Frontline achieved $16,400 per day on our VLCC [Technical Difficulty] $6,500 per day on our Suezmax fleet and very impressive $38,600 per day on our LR2/Aframax fleet. So far, in the first quarter of 2022, we have booked 73% of our VLCC days at $28,100 per day, 73% of our Suezmax days at a solid $45,000 per day and 62% of our LR2/Aframax days at even more impressive $46,200 per day. All numbers in this table are on a load to discharge basis and maybe affected by the amount of ballast days we end up having at the end of Q3. This is more relevant to the VLCCs that normally tend to go on the longer voyages. It occasionally affects Suezmaxes and to a lesser degree, LR2s. With that, I will now let Inger take you through the financial highlights.

Inger Klemp

Management

Thanks, Lars and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let’s turn to Slide 5 and look at the income statement. This quarter, Frontline achieved total operating revenues of $159 million and adjusted EBITDA of $98 million. We reported net income of $47.1 million or $0.23 per share and adjusted net income of $42.5 million or $0.21 per share in this quarter. On the right hand side of the slide, we show the adjustments made this quarter, which consists of a $8.9 million gain on derivatives, a $6.1 million share results of associated companies, a $1.3 million amortization of acquired time charters, a $0.8 million gain on insurance claim, $12 million loss on marketable securities and $0.4 million loss on termination of leases. The adjusted net income in the second quarter increased $44.1 million compared with the first quarter. And the increase in interested net income was driven by an increase in our time charter equivalent earnings due to the higher TCE rates in the quarter, but it was partly offset by an increase in ship operating expenses of $7.5 million, mainly as a result of higher drydocking costs and other movements in income and expenses. Then let’s take a look at the balance sheet on Slide 6. Total balance sheet numbers have increased with $304 million in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The balance sheet movements in the quarter are primarily related to taking delivery of the 2 new buildings VLCCs, Front Alta and Front Tweed together with the acquisition of the Euronav shares in exchange for Frontline shares in addition to ordinary debt repayments and depreciation. As of June 30, Frontline had $351 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount under our senior unsecured loan facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements.…

Lars Barstad

Management

Thank you, Inger. So let’s move on and have a look at Slide 9 and recap the second quarter. I have basically made a title here called a "pivotal point for tankers." Q2 is normally a softish quarter also referred to as a shoulder quarter. But as we see on the graph at the bottom left, something happened as we went into Q2 this year. So global oil demand came in 700,000 barrels per day lower in Q2 compared to Q1, averaging up 98.4 million barrels. Supply came in at 99.1 million barrels per day, up a modest 0.2 million barrels per day in the quarter. It’s basically the volatility we’ve seen in the market in Q2 and the first and foremost, on the LR2s is a ton-mile story. And we’re currently reaping the benefits of that story that started during the second quarter. We are seeing highly inefficient trading patterns developing and this to the benefit of oil in transit and utilization, as you can see on the graph at the bottom right. Towards the end of the second quarter, we saw all Frontline asset classes, including the VLCC start to move up. Asian and in particular, Chinese demand was still subdued, but current level of activity paints an interesting picture for future starts to come. Let’s move then to Slide 10. So global exports, and what we’re looking at here are two charts where basically it’s the tracked output of oil and products, split from basically every producing country in the world and every producing or products producing region in the world. We have seen a dramatic change in demand and trading patterns for refined products developing during Q2 this year. I think people tend to forget and it’s a bit overshadowed by the situation in Ukraine that…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question from Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Chappell

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Lars, two quick questions on capital allocation. First of all, it’s good to see the dividend renewed for the first time. If we do the math, it looks like maybe a 70% payout ratio has just been so long. Just want to get confirmation on a rough range? And then the second part to that question is, as we’re going through the final steps of consummating the Euronav transaction, are there any restrictions on the amount of dividends or any other corporate actions you can take until that process?

Lars Barstad

Management

First of all, Inger just handed me a note here. I believe it’s up 79%...

Inger Klemp

Management

Yes, because we need to calculate the dividend basis to 222.6 million shares [indiscernible] outstanding at the end of the quarter – second quarter, I mean. So then you will come to that is 79%.

Lars Barstad

Management

Yes. And back to your other question, there is the combination agreement was made public in July and the exchange ratio is set and it’s within that exchange ratio that the dividend has been – is being paid. But for future dividends, it needs to be basically adjusted either via the exchange ratio, which is very unlikely. And then via the amount of shareholders that Frontline will have post merger.

Jonathan Chappell

Analyst

My second question for you Lars is, you mentioned in the presentation that you haven’t really seen China come back to the market yet. It feels like Russia is still pretty reliant on – I am sorry, Europe is still pretty reliant on Russian crude and the sanctions clearly haven’t gone into effect yet. Is it – is there any way to quantify or even qualify what’s driven this VLCC spike before you are really seeing the impact of these two potential big catalysts into the market?

Lars Barstad

Management

Well, first, I would like to say that the European and U.S. sanctions on Russian crude has not affected the Russian flows per se, but it’s altered the trading pattern. So, basically, what we see right now is that Russian crude oil and Russian products is sailing past Europe and to Asia. And at the same time, Europe has had to change their purchase patterns and are importing to a much larger degree feedstock and products from Middle East, West Africa and the U.S. So – and this is what created this highly inefficient trading pattern. So, it has – kind of the sanctions has stopped Russian crude to enter Europe just as far as we see it. With regards to the VLCC, that’s a very kind of recent development. And I think it’s more related to the U.S. production and the U.S. SPR release and their export capacities. So – and as you know, and as I have described this before, on previous calls that the oil market is a bit like a toothpaste tube. If you press it, the toothpaste will pop out somewhere. And basically, U.S. crude oil has then priced itself to go far east, basically by the share price itself to go far east, basically by the share volume being offered. So that, I think is the game changer here. I also think not to be too technical, the flattening of the oil curves in a very, very steep backwardated market, it’s quite expensive to hold large volumes of crude oil over a long voyage is basically unhedgeable. But obviously, with the flat structure in the crude oil market. It’s easy to hedge your exposure over the 60 days you need in order to transport crude from say U.S. Gulf to China.

Jonathan Chappell

Analyst

Okay. That’s all very helpful. Thank you Lars and thanks Inger.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking our next question. The next question is from Chris Tsung from Webber Research.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. How are you?

Lars Barstad

Management

Thank you. Very good.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Thanks. Yes. Just to follow-up on that last question. So, are you saying that you will continue to see VLCCs/Suezmaxes for the near-term, is that right?

Lars Barstad

Management

So basically, what we are seeing is that at least VLCC – when these large trade lanes open up as we have seen U.S. Gulf to Asia or to North Asia. You utilize the vessels for over a very, very long period of time. So, it takes away capacity for a long time. So – and we also see the activity continue. When we fix VLCCs now, we fix them for late-September. So basically, the oil will be lifted in September and delivered to China sometime in late-October early November. And this, we see continue as October dates are already being addressed. This does, however, create a bit of a hole in the Suezmax program, because they are fixed closer to the loading dates. But at the same time, the Suezmax has a lot of support from the flow of crude from both Middle East, but primarily West Africa into Europe. So, we basically see – this seems to be maintaining or maybe even firming.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Okay. Great. Yes. Thanks for that color. That’s really helpful. Just on to your fleet mix, I know in the presentation, you guys are not looking at new capacity to ship, but with these delivering into early next year and the potential merger with Euronav fleet, which is heavily be-weighted. I just wanted to understand, is there a desire to rebalance your fleet mix, or how should we think about that?

Lars Barstad

Management

You are absolutely correct. It is to rebalance our fleet mix. And historically, Frontline has been a predominantly VLCC company, secondary having Suezmaxes. And the LR2 additions to our fleet is actually kind of in the long-term, fairly new. We do see them obviously as very efficient trading vehicles. And I think this quarter has a story of that. But no, it’s a simple analysis, which we have repeated a few times, but I am happy to repeat it again. If you look at the average cash breakeven Frontline has per vessel class, and you also then think of the economies of scale in oil transportation. You will find that the lid on – or the kind of where the VLCC peaks is so much higher than, for instance, for the VLCC, and Suezmax or compared to an LR2. So, it means that you get to put a bit in variable on the more bang for the buck owning VLCCs in a good market. And this has basically been from clients philosophy all along. We are also quite good at running VLCCs, have a good client base in that segment. And so, this has basically been kind of where the bread and butter over the years has been gained from Frontline. So, the Euronav transaction is a part of that kind of continuing that story.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Got it. Great. Thank you. And just if I can squeeze one last modeling question just noticing your admin costs have inched up a bit this quarter. Is this a one-time thing associated with the time merger with Euronav versus something else?

Inger Klemp

Management

Yes. And you are right. We do have some more professional fee of – expenses related to professional fees and legal costs in this quarter than we usually have related to this merger.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Okay. So, it wouldn’t be like the run rate going forward is just slightly elevated this quarter and maybe into next?

Inger Klemp

Management

Sorry, I didn’t catch your question?

Chris Tsung

Analyst

I was just saying that this shouldn’t be looked as a new run rate for admin expenses, and it’s just this quarter and next, is it just going to be slightly elevated?

Inger Klemp

Management

Well, I mean as long as we are in the process of let’s say, combining the companies, I guess you could assume that we will also have higher professional fees and legal expenses in the next quarters to come.

Chris Tsung

Analyst

Alright. It makes sense. Thank you, Inger. Thank you, Lars.

Lars Barstad

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking our next question. Please stand by. The next question is from Omar Nokta, Platou [ph].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi there. Hey guys. I have a couple of questions for you just on the Euronav transaction. Obviously, in the second quarter, you did a few share deals that took your stake up to around 20% in Euronav. Is there anything that prohibits you from doing more, assuming the opportunity exists to take your position higher ahead of the tender offer?

Lars Barstad

Management

It is in fact – and this leads to kind of transactions, you can call them, were bilateral, and they were kind of driven by incoming to put it that way. There is a regulatory kind of mechanism called the creeping tender offer. If you continue to do this, at least the U.S. legislators will kind of arrest you not like physically, but you will – they don’t deem it the correct way of going about this. So, that’s why we kind of stopped there. Also, there are limitations to – when you become a related party and so forth. That’s not necessarily a big issue for us as we are very much related through the combination agreement already. But there is no kind of big incentive for us to continue that path or it is in a part continue those – or to do more of those transactions.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Got it. That makes sense. Appreciate that. And I guess this is maybe a sensitive I understand, if you are not able to respond, but are you having any discussions with the Euronav shareholder that has been vocal in his opposition to the deal, maybe reaching amicable solution, or does it just simply come down to how the tender offer comes about later in the year?

Lars Barstad

Management

In the end it comes down to how the tender offer – what happens when we count the shares at the end of the tender offer.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Understood. Okay. Alright. Thanks Lars.

Lars Barstad

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at the moment, I will hand back the conference for closing remarks.

Lars Barstad

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for calling in. Again, these are exciting times. We are quite excited both by the market developments and our ambitions with regards to the combination of Euronav. So, with that, thank you and have a good day.