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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 3, 2021

$18.06

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Cathy and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Cedar Fair Entertainment Company 2021 Third Quarter Earnings Call. All lines are [ph] being placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Michael Russell, you may begin your conference.

Michael Russell

Analyst

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning. My name is Michael Russell, Corporate Director of Investor Relations for Cedar Fair. Welcome to our 2021 third quarter earnings conference call. Earlier this morning, we distributed via wire service our earnings press release, a copy of which is available under the News tab of our investors website at ir.cedarfair.com. On the call with me this morning are Richard Zimmerman, Cedar Fair's President and CEO; and Brian Witherow, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we begin, I need to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those described in such statements. For a more detailed discussion of these risks, you may refer to the company's filings with the SEC. In compliance with the SEC's Regulation FD, this webcast is being made available to the media and the general public as well as analysts and investors. Because the webcast is open to all constituents and prior notification has been widely and unselectively disseminated, all content on this call will be considered fully disclosed. With that, I would like to introduce our CEO, Richard Zimmerman. Richard?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thank you, Michael and good morning, everyone. We appreciate all of you being with us today. Today's opening remarks will focus in three primary areas. First, a review of the third quarter results of our parks and resort properties as well as more recent performance trends during the month of October. Second, an overview of how we successfully managed structural shifts in the labor market this season and how we plan to address this challenge in 2022. Finally, we will highlight how the organizational changes we have made and the strategic initiatives we've implemented enabled us to offset many of the effects of the pandemic positioning Cedar Fair for continued growth, success, and value creation. Let me start by saying I am extremely pleased with our company's results since the reopening of our properties in May, and particularly, over the last four months, which represents the most important stretch of the season for us. This outstanding performance would not have been possible without the unwavering determination of our leadership team, whom I believe is the strongest, most experienced, and uniquely talented collection of professionals in our industry. Of course, they're supported by the talented and committed teams operating our parks across North America. Collectively, we have demonstrated time and time again how to produce the best possible outcomes in highly challenging environments, while also pushing the boundaries of success when momentum is on our side. Every day, the associates of Cedar Fair delight our guests with immersive family experiences, which is an essential element of our differentiated business model. The strong attendance and guest spending trends we reported through Labor Day weekend continued through last Sunday, tapping off in October in which our parks entertained 3.2 million guests and generated record revenues of 219 million. Our outstanding performance was a…

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Thanks Richard and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by providing more detail behind our results for the third quarter before moving on to an update of our October performance trends. But first I need to remind you that the pandemic had a material impact on park operations in both 2020 and 2021. Because we suspended park operations in mid-March last year, and still have limited operations during the third quarter of 2020, results for the third quarter of the last two years are not directly comparable. For those reasons. I will provide more relevant comparisons to the third quarter of 2019. In 2021, operating days in the third quarter total 988 compared to 1,035 total operating days in the third quarter of 2019. As reported in our earnings released this morning, net revenues for the third quarter totaled a record $753 million, up 5% or $39 million compared to the third quarter of 2019. The increase in net revenues was the direct result of a 29% increase in-park per capita spending and a 9% increase in out-of-park revenues during the period. Partially offsetting these gains was an 18% or 2 million visit decline in third quarter attendance compared to 2019. Reflecting 47 fewer operating days in the period, the anticipated loss of pre-booked group sales and the impact of capacity limitations at certain parks, including one of our largest parks Canada's Wonderland. For the quarter, attendance total 10.8 million guests or approximately 82% of 2019 levels, driven by strength in both the general admissions and season pass attendance channels. Meanwhile, in-park per capita spending in the quarter totaled a record $64.26, which represented a $14.32 increase over the comparable 2019 spending levels. The result of improved guest spending across all revenue categories. Guest spending on food and beverage, merchandise, games,…

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thanks Brian. At the outset of the pandemic, we made a pledge to our guest, unitholders, and employees that Cedar Fair would emerge from the COVID-19 disruption stronger than when it began. We are successfully advancing our strategic initiatives to achieve that goal. We anticipate the strong demand levels continuing for Winterfest and Knott's Berry Farm events through year end, which will provide additional flexibility towards delivering on our primary goals of returning operations to pre-pandemic levels, reducing leverage, and reinstating unitholder distributions. As I noted in my opening remarks, the organizational changes we have made and the strategic initiatives we've implemented have allowed us to systematically attack and offset the lingering challenge from the pandemic's disruption. The new workforce management platform, the build out of our new business intelligence group, and the hiring of our first CIO, are all good examples of the steps we have taken to strengthen our company operate efficiently and capitalize on our strategic advantages. In a highly inflationary environment like this, it is critical that we smartly manage all aspects of the business, both on the cost side and the revenue side. We will remain diligent and managing cost, while at the same time, ensuring we don't sacrifice the quality of the guest experience. On the revenue front, we must remain creative in finding new and exciting ways for our guests to spend and we must continue leaning into dynamic pricing. Over the next couple of weeks, several of our parks begin transforming their Midways into Winter Wonderland, while other properties are winding down a very successful 2021 season. As we begin plans for the season ahead, I want to thank our guests for their continued loyalty through the pandemic and our incredible team of dedicated associates who continuously achieve amazing things. For our unitholders, please know that we appreciate your trust and confidence as we continue to get stronger every day. I've never had more confidence in our business than I do right now and I'm excited to see how much fun is in store for 2022. Cathy, at this point, would you open up the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question will come from James Hardiman of Wedbush.

James Hardiman

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my call and congrats on a really strong -- certainly month of October, but even the tail end of 3Q. I wanted to sort of ask -- obviously, we don't need to get too deep into sort of the month-by-month trends, but maybe characterize the so called delta dip if you had one versus the last time we spoke, I think second quarter attendance was down 20, third quarter was down 18. Obviously, there were some puts and takes there. And so I don't want to just straight line that from where we were to where we are, because it seems like maybe things got a little bit worse, and then they got better as sort of the Delta impact subsided. So, maybe walk us through the last few months?

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Good morning, James. Its Brian. At a high level, I would say, we've been very pleased with the trend lines we've seen, you know, across the system, certainly at the very beginning of the season, getting open was a little choppy, with certainly not all our parts coming online at the same time and staffing challenges that as Richard noted that the decisions we made, how to remedy and I think the results speak to the success that we had with that with those decisions and those changes we made around staffing. In terms of demand -- and certainly throughout any season, as you know, having followed us as long as you have there's ups and downs. I will say this year, we found ourselves focused on some of those macro trends that we used to hate talking about and got away from, like weather. But certainly that played into it. We really didn't see a demonstrative impact in any of our markets, really on the, from the Delta side of things. From a guest spending perspective, the trends have only continued to improve. Our per capita number in Q2 was just a hair inside of $56. That improved over $64 in Q3 and then pushing $65 in October, as we've as we've disclosed. So, I'd say in the trends have only continued to improve in certain metrics and have remained very steady in others.

James Hardiman

Analyst

Got it. That's really encouraging. And then maybe if we could hone in on October a little bit, attendance better than 2019, which seems like a watershed moment for you and the industry. I think that's the first time I've heard that since the pandemic. You did have 6% more operating days in October over the last five weeks, I guess I should say. Is it as easy to just say that on a same-day basis, which is a metric you've given at times in the past, were up 2% -- attendance was at 2% on a comparable number of days, math probably isn't that easy. But then also, are you still facing those same headwinds that you were in the third quarter right? Capacity limitations or restrictions and the headwind from pre-book sales? I guess in other words, would that number have been even better, where you're not facing those things or did those things themselves subside to some degree?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Yes, James. This is Richard. Good morning. Listen, I think this the strength in October, irrespective of the number of days was really encouraging. As I said in my remarks, we did have a few more days, just way the calendar fell. But from my perspective, it was more validation of the extremely strong demand we've seen and I was very pleased. As Brian said, we were watching all the weather trends, not something we've done in a while, but I think overall -- I think gets back to why we are so committed to our event strategy. Halloween is the perfect example both daytime and nighttime of why we think the event strategy drives urgency to a limited duration because of the limited duration event. So, I think strategically what we saw was a validation of our view of the business. But again, I'm pleased with the way the team performed, really pleased at the high guest satisfaction. And to your point, just thinking about it, I think the other thing that I would point out is, we were up on what was it then record month of October by all respects. So, I think it really does point to the underlying strength of the business model and the resiliency of it.

James Hardiman

Analyst

That's really helpful. Thanks guys.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thanks James.

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Thanks James.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Mike Swartz of Truist Securities.

Mike Swartz

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. Just maybe a quick follow-up on James' first question. I think he said attendance like-for-like was about 82% of 2019 levels in the third quarter. I didn't see it, maybe I missed it. What did that look like without the capacity limitations that Canada's Wonderland and I guess softer group sales dynamics?

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Yes, good morning, Mike. It's Brian. So, yes, the 82% number that we disclose is a reported versus a reported. So, certainly, the less operating days, the 47 less operating days is impacting that -- the capacity limitations and the in the softness in the group channel. A little harder to isolate those latter two, just based on their nature. Certainly, if we just look at a comparable operating day to operating day, much like we've seen in previous months and as we talked about in Q2, we picked up several 100 basis points of comparative attendance year-over-year. And certainly the group, as we talked about in Q2 has put as much pressure as maybe 9% -- 8% to 10%, maybe, let's say 9%, on average pressure against that number as well. So, it's a little harder on -- a park like Canada to quantify the capacity limitations other than certainly knowing that August is one of that park's best performing months and having those capacity limitations and it was very discernible to see when you were bumping your head on certain days.

Mike Swartz

Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful. And then just switching over to the labor environment, you provided a lot of color in the call and I think on the second quarter call, you had mentioned that labor costs were -- or hourly labor costs were up something like 40% versus 2020 or I guess, 2019, maybe provide us with an update there and maybe your comfort going into 2022? And then maybe what type of inflation you're expecting for the following year?

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Sure, Mike. As a relates to the hourly rate, given the changes that we made, as Richard alluded to that, I think right at the ship, if I could put it that way. And those changes were all largely embedded in those Q2 rates that we spoke about. So, not much further creep around rates in terms of its 2021 versus 2019 or 2021 expectations budget, however you want to look at it. So, those comparatives -- those percentages, I think are largely still in line with what we previously disclosed. As we look towards next year, I think our belief is that the adjustments we've taken this year, while they were definitely taken out of necessity, given the short runway, we had to get parks open, that there -- we don't anticipate the need to take meaningful increases again next year. I think we're well-positioned based on our current status. As Richard noted in our prepared remarks and commented on the runway that we have more runway more opportunity to plan, more opportunity to recruit, I think we have opportunities to build more flexibility into that staffing model those -- that wage rate model for next year and so that's going to be our focus. So, certainly trying to find ways to minimize rate pressure through adjusting the model a little bit as well as, as I mentioned, taking hours out continuing to find efficiencies, whether that be through automation or the use of more technology, better planning, it's going to have to -- some of the pressure is going to have to come off through both ours as well as driving more price. We talked about that, we have to push price. We've been very successful doing that this year and we think we're well-positioned to continue that.

Mike Swartz

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from Eric Wold of B. Riley Securities.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Just one more question on labor, that'd be the only the only topic here. But I guess, with your move to hire and pay aggressively to get the parks staffed, are you still experiencing any notable deficiencies in any parks or any region of the country that that may be adversely impacted the ability to kind of operate rides, you're going attractions open that may have impacted attendance or is that really in the past?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Yes, Eric. Good morning. It's Richard. We have not seen -- everything, we've seen has been broad based. So we've not seen any pockets of either strength or deficiency, if I use your term. No, we've seen the similar trends across all the country, and certainly, North America. So, nothing notable to call out there that would be a pocket. Again, we're pleased with the way we're able to both attract, but retain the staff. And as Brian said, and as I said in my prepared remarks, just looking to do everything we can to optimize the labor that's available to us.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Okay. But nothing that impacts the ability to get attractions or rides open in the parks, those are all sort of operating at full capacity -- full ability?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

No. We had -- we're able to put on the level of guest experience and product that we wanted. Had we seen those types of pockets, I think we would have seen that show up in our guest satisfaction scores. And again, we achieved some of our highest scores ever at almost every park both daytime and nighttime and that's one of the things I'm most proud of.

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Yes. And I would just add to Richard's comments. The staffing levels are reflective, the adequacy of the staffing levels, as Richard just commented, are reflected in those per caps. Our ability to generate the per cap numbers that we did in Q3 and in October would not have been possible had we had shortages of staffing, particularly in key retail channels.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Got it. And then final question on the season pass front any kind of underlying drivers in terms of the strength of renewals of prior pass holders versus first time purchasers coming into the mix? And any just sort of shifts in kind of the demographic of that season pass buyer that you're seeing in terms of age, family composition, distance from the park, anything that would kind of call out a trend?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Eric, the season passes, as I said, is critical program. We've got more information, and we watch it very closely, we got more information on season pass holders than we do on our single day tickets and we're catching up on that. But when I look at that, no -- we going into this, we knew we had to watch the renewals and what was happening. We've seen them start to trend strong depending part by part. You've got the extension of the use benefits at Knott's Berry Farm and Canada's Wonderland into next year. So we knew that would be a little bit of a headwind. But we're seeing, in our data, of what we'd expect to see in a normal year. So, it feels a little bit like normal. Again, renewals started out little slower, been strengthening over the course of the sales period so we continue. Even though fall is our second biggest period, the winter holiday period that we're going into is increasingly becoming important. So we're going to watch that closely as we work our way through that.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you, both.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thanks Eric.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now go to Paul Golding of Macquarie Capital.

Paul Golding

Analyst

Thanks. So much, congrats on a phenomenal quarter. I had a question on the $175 million to $200 million in 2022 spend on new rides and attractions. I was wondering, if you could give us any color on how the supply chain may or may not be impacting that given the numbers seems to be holding about the same but we've seen costs and actual material transport et cetera, be impacted? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Paul, good morning, it's Richard. We've seen some isolated challenges with supply chain. Certainly, they are out there. But with planning ahead and getting our orders in early like we like to do we've minimized that. So some of the projects on an isolated basis, we might have challenges getting to. But overall, I think we'll be able to debut what we need to and what we want to next season. So nothing that, I think that we're seeing will impact our ability to get up and running with all of the things that we will -- that we detailed in our last earnings call and release in terms of new product next year, but also those ancillary products. So working our way through that nothing significant. It's there, certainly, we're monitoring it, but we're working our way through it.

Paul Golding

Analyst

That's great to hear. And then on guest experience, I was wondering if you could give any color on how some of the guest experience digitization or optimization products and initiatives have been trending, whether it's front of line or mobile ordering, anything that could be a bellwether for how the uptake is driving experience or per cap quality there? Thanks.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

One of the notable things, Paul, in what we see this year is that we're across, as we said in our remarks, we're up across all revenue channels. So we're still evaluating all the data to distill out what we think is really driving. But, so it's a huge lift on all fronts, certainly, we think we've benefited from the revenge spending that we've talked about. But more importantly, we think we're benefiting from, as Brian said, several years of initiatives really aimed at unlocking more transactions, listening to our guests, trying to take some of those friction points out. So, we have seen good uptake and the things we've put out there, but improving our consumer technology is going to be a big part of our platform going forward. We anticipate as we said in prior calls that the business optimization we'll get to that over, and see the benefits of that over a two to three year timeframe, but more to come on that front as we get into upcoming calls and quarters.

Paul Golding

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. I may have missed some of this in the opening remarks, but I'm just curious if you could weighing on how you're thinking about labor cost inflation over time, as we look over the next couple of quarters and if you're seeing material differences by geography both in terms of rate and just the shortages that we've heard about?

Brian Witherow

Analyst

Yes, Stephen, it's Brian. Good morning. As it relates to the staffing challenges, certainly, there is modest differences from park to park, but I would characterize it similar to Richard's earlier comment that that tight labor market is really a nationwide problem, something we're seeing across all our properties here in North America. So, certainly, the ones that are a little bit more of a distance from the bigger metropolitan areas may have some incremental challenges, while those that are closer, staffing gets a little bit easier, at least the population base is a little bit deeper. In terms of our outlook, the -- as I mentioned on -- to an answer to an earlier question, the step functions that we took in rate this year to address the staffing challenges, I think those rates are very relevant still for next year, not necessarily seeing a need for those to increase. And in fact, as we noted in our comments we're trying to build more flexibility with more runway to plan, we want more flexibility in the labor model going forward. There are certainly some tailwinds that can help us. They are seeing the J-1 Visa program come back. We had a modest amount of associates that came through that channel this year little later in the game, but seeing that continue to get back to its historical levels will definitely benefit us. And then as I just mentioned, certainly more runway to plan our staffing models to recruit should benefit us as well as we look to offset some of the rates pressures we saw this year.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

And then perhaps another follow-up to one of your comments earlier about attendance, I mean, can you just shed any light on what you're seeing in terms of group attendance? What -- where that is trending versus kind of normalized levels and anything that you're anticipating or seeing into next year?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Yes, Stephen, it's Richard. On the group channel, listen, as we shared on earlier calls, back in 2008, 2009 that's usually the first to get disrupted and the longest to come back. What we've been surprised by, frankly, is the phone has been ringing from our corporate clients. So, we're starting to see a pickup in activity, not yet seeing that through the gate. So, there is some interest, although, the folks on the corporate side that we're talking to want to configure. They're asking for a little more flexibility in terms of how people use the park. So we're thinking about how to evolve our offerings to match where we think the market is going on that front, could be more limited operation on a Thursday night, things like that. How can we customize it for them? But one of the really important channels for us every year is youth sales, with schools returning and everybody back to in-person learning, we're monitoring where the school systems will be in terms of their ability, or desire to go to some of our traditional days in the spring. So, we've been encouraged by the conversations we've had and the discussions so far. But again, still a little too early to kind of forecast how quickly group comes back. I would stay with our historical view that first to be disrupted last to come back. So we think there will be some impact on 2022. But feel better about it when we look at 2023 and beyond.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

And one last one, just on the business optimization program the $50 million, has anything changed in terms of your thinking about that number and the split between cost and revenues? And how does the strength in per caps maybe fit into that program? Meaning could there be any difference in flow-through from the strong per caps as a result of some of the things you're doing there?

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Our ability to achieve the $50 million that we've outlined, no significant update in terms of the timing or the components, we're still working our way through, as we said in our prepared remarks, trying to be as efficient as possible and optimize on both the expense and revenue side, so no update for you other than that. We remain confident in our ability to hit the target.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

Fair enough. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

And with that, does concludes our Q&A session. I'd like to turn things back to Richard Zimmerman for closing remarks.

Richard Zimmerman

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, for your participation in today's call, and especially for your investment or continued interest in Cedar Fair. As the holiday season approaches, I know I speak for Brian, Michael and our entire team at Cedar Fair, wishing you must cheer and endless fun. We look forward to seeing you at the upcoming -- at an upcoming conference either in-person or via video. Michael?

Michael Russell

Analyst

Thanks again, everybody. If you have any additional questions, please contact our Investor Relations department at 419-627-2233, and we look forward to speaking with you again in February after releasing our 2021 year-end earnings report. Cathy, that ends our call for today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And again, ladies and gentlemen, that does concludes today's call. We'd like to thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect.