Earnings Labs

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 5, 2025

$13.33

-0.71%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to GBDC's earnings call for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to remind our listeners that remarks made during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements other than statements of historical facts made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in GBDC's SEC filings. For materials we intend to refer to on today's earnings call, please visit the Investor Resources tab on the homepage of our website, which is www.golubcapitalbdc.com and click on the Events and Presentations link. Our earnings release is also available on our website in the Investor Resources section. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to David Golub, Chief Executive Officer of GBDC.

David B. Golub

Management

Hello, everybody, and thanks for joining us today. I'm joined by Matt Benton, our Chief Operating Officer; and Chris Ericson, our Chief Financial Officer. For those of you who are new to GBDC, our investment strategy is focused on providing first lien senior secured loans to healthy, resilient middle market companies that are backed by strong partnership-oriented private equity sponsors. Yesterday, we issued our earnings press release for the quarter ended June 30, and we posted an earnings presentation on our website. We're going to be referring to this presentation over the course of today's call. I'm going to start with headlines, and then Matt and Chris are going to go through our operating and financial performance for the quarter in more detail. And finally, I'll wrap up with our outlook for the coming period, and we'll take some questions. The headline is that GBDC had another good boring quarter. Here are the highlights. Adjusted NII per share was $0.39. This corresponds to an adjusted NII return on equity of 10.4%. Adjusted net income per share was $0.34, and that's an adjusted return on equity of 9.1%. This brings the since IPO internal rate of return for GBDC shareholders to 9.6% over 15 years. Adjusted net income per share included $0.05 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses, primarily unrealized losses in the small tail of underperforming borrowers that you've heard us speak about previously. Our new investment activity increased from prior quarters, but the overall M&A environment remained muted. And we continue to see an encouraging level of resilience across our borrowers with internal performance ratings remaining strong and generally consistent quarter-over-quarter. With that, I'll pass the call over to Matt Benton to discuss the quarter in more detail.

Matthew W. Benton

Management

Thanks, David. I'm going to start on Slide 4. GBDC's $0.39 per share of adjusted NII and $0.34 per share of adjusted earnings were driven by 4 key factors. First, overall credit performance remains solid. Nearly 90% of GBDC's investment portfolio at fair value remains in our highest performing internal rating categories. The $0.05 of adjusted net unrealized and realized losses were primarily related to fair value markdowns on a small number of underperforming investments, the majority of which were in equity investments in these portfolio companies. Investments on nonaccrual status remained very low at 60 basis points of the total investment portfolio at fair value. This level is well below the BDC peer industry average. Second, earnings were supported by historically high base rates and attractive spreads consistent with recent quarters. GBDC's investment income yield was 10.6%, a sequential decline of about 20 basis points, primarily driven by: one, modestly lower base rates, mostly related to a greater mix of loans tied to lower non-SOFR reference rates; and two, modest spread compression during the quarter. Third, a decline in GBDC's borrowing costs largely offset the sequential decline in investment income yield. The repricing of GBDC's syndicated corporate revolver, which took effect in mid-May, reduced effective borrowing costs during the quarter. And fourth, earnings benefited from lower operating expenses due to GBDC's market-leading fee structure. GBDC's investment portfolio grew modestly quarter-over-quarter, an increase of 4% to just under $9 billion at fair value. The increase was the result of $557 million of new investment commitments in the quarter, $411 million of which funded in the quarter and net of $306 million in repayments. We continue to remain highly selective and conservative in our underwriting, closing on just 3.1% of deals reviewed in the quarter at a weighted average LTV of…

Christopher Compton Ericson

Management

Thanks, Matt. Turning to Slide 7. You can see how the earnings drivers Matt just described and distributions paid in the quarter translated into GBDC's June 30, 2025 NAV per share of $15. Adjusted NII per share of $0.39 was in line with the $0.39 per share base distribution paid out during the quarter. Adjusted net realized and unrealized losses were $0.05 per share and repurchases of common stock during the quarter resulted in $0.01 per share of NAV accretion. Together, these results drove a net asset value per share decrease to $15. We will turn to Slide 10, which details our origination activity for the quarter. Net funds quarter-over-quarter increased modestly by $340 million as the combination of funded new originations and DDTL and revolver draws outpaced repayments in the quarter. Looking at the bottom of the slide, the weighted average rate on new investments was 9.2%. Investments that repaid in the quarter were at a weighted average rate of 9.8%. We did see some spread widening immediately after Liberation Day that was followed by some spread tightening over the remainder of the quarter. Slide 11 shows GBDC's overall portfolio mix. And as you can see, the portfolio breakdown by investment type remained consistent quarter-over-quarter with one-stop loans continuing to represent around 87% of the portfolio at fair value. Slide 12 shows that GBDC's portfolio remains highly diversified by portfolio company with an average investment size of approximately 20 basis points, consistent with prior quarters. Additionally, our largest borrower represents just 1.5% of the debt investment portfolio and our top 10 largest borrowers represent below 12% of the portfolio. We are big believers in modulating credit risk through position size, which we believe has served GBDC well in previous credit cycles. And as of June 30, 2025, 92% of…

David B. Golub

Management

Thanks, Chris. So to sum up, GBDC posted another quarter of good boring results. But these results happened in a quarter that from a macro perspective, wasn't boring at all. It saw big market swings, and it saw another example of a bad consensus forecast. You'll recall in prior quarters, I've talked about how many bad consensus forecasts we've seen since the beginning of COVID. At the beginning of calendar Q2, the strong consensus view was that tariff-related uncertainty would be a big drag on the U.S. economy and that would probably result in slowing growth. But that's not what happened. Instead, the U.S. economy has at least so far demonstrated considerable resilience. So I'm now going to offer up some observations and some predictions about the future, but I want to acknowledge in doing so that we're in a period that's proved very difficult for forecasters. I advised last quarter, given this that we should all stay humble, we should all choose resilient strategies, and we should prepare for multiple scenarios. I think that was good advice then, and it's good advice now. With that context, let me touch briefly on 2 topics on our outlook for credit performance and our outlook for the deal environment. First, credit performance. I expect what is already a protracted credit cycle to become even more protracted. Traditionally, credit cycles, they're typically spiked. Something bad happens, there's a collapse in confidence or there's too much inventory or there's a geopolitical shock, and you get a spike in credit defaults where defaults rise to an unusual height and then quickly fall. That's not what we've seen in this credit cycle. In 2022, when we saw the dramatic increase in interest rates, a lot of smart people, including us, expected that we'd see a sudden…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Heli Sheth with Raymond James.

Heli Sheth

Analyst

So a quick one on leverage. So this quarter, you guys ended with net leverage of 1.26, which is quite high by historical standards. So is it fair to say that you're expecting a significant wave of repayments to eventually lever down?

David B. Golub

Management

Yes and no. You're correct that we have some repayments in the pipeline and that we think the quarter end leverage was a little bit higher than if you were looking at it over time. And Matt alluded to this in his comments, he alluded to the fact that average leverage over the quarter was about 1.2. We've always thought about leverage as being appropriate in the context of a target range rather than being too religious on one specific point within the range and 1.25 is the high end of our range. So you indicated in your question, are we anticipating a deleveraging? No. But likewise, we're not anticipating further leveraging either.

Heli Sheth

Analyst

Got it. And a quick follow-up, maybe a more philosophical question, but spreads across the floating rate markets are quite tight right now, not just with BDCs, but with syndicated loan spreads as well, which tend to widen when rates go down. So with BDCs spreads having lagged these movements upwards of 6 months, do you think this lag time between liquid loan markets and BDCs is going to remain the same? Or is it more likely to respond more quickly going forward?

David B. Golub

Management

I'm not sure I understand your question. When you say BDCs have lagged, can you elaborate on what you mean by that?

Heli Sheth

Analyst

Yes. lagging like loan spread movements with the syndicated loan market.

David B. Golub

Management

So you're saying that the syndicated loan market has seen more spread compression than we've seen in our reported spreads on our new loans?

Heli Sheth

Analyst

Yes.

David B. Golub

Management

Is that what -- yes. You're right. I think that is an appropriate description of the pattern that we've seen. We've seen quite significant spread compression in the broadly syndicated market. It's been a pattern for some time. So if you think back to the summer of 2022 when rates went up and the broadly syndicated market dislocated and we saw very significant spread widening since 2023, we've been on a trend toward a more borrower-friendly, tighter spread environment in both private credit and the broadly syndicated market. I do think you're right that private credit spreads are a little stickier, especially middle market private spreads. But we've seen a significant degree of spread compression in our markets as well. And I don't think we're immune to those trends. I think the right way to look at it is, especially in the core middle market as opposed to the larger market, the core middle market is insulated, but not immune from spread trends that are happening in the broadly syndicated market. The larger end of the private credit market is less insulated because BSL is a replacement. So we've seen a number of transactions. Finastra is a good example recently where credits that were in the private credit market are being refinanced at lower spreads in the broadly syndicated market. So because of that phenomenon, the larger end of the market tends to respond more quickly to changes in spreads than the core middle market.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call back over to David Golub for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

David B. Golub

Management

Gosh, it seems today, the report is so good boring. We don't have the usual number of questions, which is fine. Thank you all for listening. As always, if you have questions after today, please feel free to get in touch, and we look forward to being back in front of you next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.