Earnings Labs

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 26, 2021

$48.40

-1.25%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to The Greenbrier Companies Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Following today’s presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Each analyst should limit themselves to only two questions. Until that time all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

Justin Roberts

Management

Thank you, Ailie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and fiscal 2021 conference call. Today Greenbrier announced that effective March 1, our founder Bill Furman will transition to the role of Executive Chairman and the appointment of Lorie Tekorius as Greenbrier’s next CEO and President. In addition to Bill and Lorie, Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer and Adrian Downes, Senior Vice President and CFO are participating in today's call. Following our update on Greenbrier’s performance and our outlook for fiscal 2022, we will open up the call for questions. In addition to the press release issued this morning, additional financial information and key metrics can be found in a slide presentation posted today on the IR section of our website. Matters discussed on today's conference calls include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier’s actual results in 2022 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier. And now I'll turn the call over to Bill.

Bill Furman

Management

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. As Justin indicated earlier today, we announced our Board of Directors is elected Lorie Tekorius Greenbrier’s the current President and Chief Operating Officer to be the company's next Chief Executive Officer position she will assume on March 1, 2022. Lorie and I along with the board have been working towards this goal for several years. Together, we built a very strong talent bench. I'm very pleased with the teams we have in place for the future. And I'm also pleased with the strategy that Lorie has evolved, which I think will take the company to higher peaks. I would take this opportunity to congratulate Lorie. Lorie, I know you will do an outstanding job as Greenbrier’s next CEO. And I look forward to working with you through the transition. I'm very proud of you. Everyone joining us today should understand our joint commitment to ensure the smoothest possible transition. When Lorie becomes CEO, I will concurrently assume the newly created role of Executive Chair until September 2022, when I'll retire from an executive position. In this role, my focus is on continuing to work with our Board of Directors as well as support Lorie in her transition to CEO. I will remain as a board member until 2024. This transaction -- transition is coming at an important and exciting time for the company. As we've discussed over the past several quarters, the recovery in our end-markets is gaining momentum. Our fiscal fourth quarter is Greenbrier’s strongest quarter of the year. Greenbrier’s fiscal fourth quarter was in fact our fifth quarter in a row with increased new railcar order activity. It was also Greenbrier’s third consecutive quarter with a book-to-bill ratio over 1, leading to a book-to-bill of 1.33 for fiscal 2021. The spread…

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Thank you, Bill and good morning, everyone. I want to express my appreciation to Bill and the Greenbrier Board for appointing me Greenbrier’s next CEO. I'm honored and humbled to follow Bill as only the second CEO in Greenbrier’s history. Bill and I have worked together towards this goal for some time and I feel well prepared. I look forward to continue to work with Bill on this transition and to build on the strong established foundation he created with our Senior Management team. Today for reporting results from operation that continued momentum from Q3. Volatility seems to be the new norm and Greenbrier’s employees rose to the challenge. The resiliency, flexibility and focus allowed Greenbrier to produce great results in addition to providing excellent levels of service and the production of quality railcars. Supply chain and labor force shortages in the United States are two of the most notable and unfortunately common challenges we are managing today. In the quarter, Greenbrier delivered 4,500 railcars including 400 units in Brazil. Q4 deliveries increased 36% from Q3 reflecting manufacturing successful ramping up production over the last six months. This is our highest level of production and deliveries since fiscal 2020. And we're pleased to see another quarter of double-digit growth. Our Global Purchasing Group continues to do an outstanding job even as disruptions spread from basic raw materials and components to resins, paints and industrial gases. Our Global Sourcing Team has rapidly responded to changing supply dynamics and continues to take measures to ensure we avoid significant production delay or line introduction. And while hiring is currently challenging in the U.S., we're fortunate to have a strong intelligent labor pool in Mexico allowing us to add over 500 employees during the quarter. And over the last nine months, we've added nearly…

Brian Comstock

Management

Thanks, Lorie, and good morning, everyone. Well, it feels like much has occurred over the last three months, overall, the economy continues to be trending in a positive direction and economic indicators point to have sustained recovery in rail. While this recovery seems to be more unpredictable, we continue to think about it as a sharper V shaped recovery with a sustainable crest. Now instead of discussing industry statistics, I'm going to focus on a few important things from 2021 and how we're approaching 2022. In Greenbrier fourth quarter, we had a book-to-bill of 1.5 reflecting deliveries of 4,500 units in orders of 6,700 units. This is the third consecutive quarter of growth in our book-to-bill ratio. For fiscal ‘21, Greenbrier generated orders of 17,200 units and deliveries of 13,000 units, which equates to a book-to-bill of 1.3. International order activity accounted for approximately 30% of this new railcar order activity. New railcar backlog grew by 2,000 units or nearly 400 million of value to 26,600 units with an estimated market value of $2.8 billion. Operations in each continent we operate in are carrying backlog that supports production well into fiscal 2022. Notably, we ended the fiscal year with a record backlog for Europe, where we have many production lines booked into fiscal 2023. Greenbrier’s lease fleet utilization ended August 21 at roughly 94% and has grown to over 96% year-to-date. Additionally, we are seeing improved lease pricing and termed on all new lease originations and lease renewals. We have seen recovery in all of our markets. We have also seen significant increases in raw materials, components and shortages of basic supplies. We have seen traffic congestion throughout the network especially at the ports, where a record setting number of ships are waiting to be offloaded, underlining the fact that…

Adrian Downes

Management

Thank you, Brian and good morning, everyone. As a reminder, quarterly and full year financial information is available in the press release and supplemental slides on our website. Greenbrier's Q4 performance represents the strongest quarter of our fiscal 2021 year as a result of the continuing momentum we've been seeing in our end markets. I will speak to a few highlights from the quarter and general overview of fiscal 2022 guidance. Highlights for the fourth quarter include revenue of $599.2 million an increase of over 33% from Q3. Aggregate gross margins of 16.4% driven by stronger operating performance as a result of increased production rates, syndication activity and lease modification fees. Selling and administrative expense a $55.4 million increase sequentially as a result of higher employee related costs. Adjusted net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $32.9 million or $0.98 per share excludes $1.2 million or $0.03 per share of debt extinguishment losses. EBITDA of $70.4 million or 11.8% of revenue. The effective tax rate in the quarter was the benefit of 14.5%. This reflects the tax benefits from accelerated depreciation associated with capital investments into our lease fleet. These deductions will be carried back to earlier high tax years under the CARES Act resulting in a tax benefit in the quarter and cash tax refunds to be received in fiscal 2022. I'm very proud of the close collaboration between our leasing and tax teams that maximize this benefit for Greenbrier over the course of fiscal 2021. In the quarter, we’ve recognized $1.6 million of gross costs, specifically related to COVID-19 employee and facility safety. In 2021, we spent nearly $10 million ensuring our employees and facilities could operate safely. The quarter also included an unfavorable adjustment for labor and materials in our lease business as well as unfavorable access and…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]. And again, please limit yourself to only two questions. Our first question today will come from Justin Long with Stephens.

Justin Long

Analyst

Thanks, good morning. And Bill it's been a great run Lorie a well deserved promotion. So I'll start by saying congrats to you both on the transition.

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Thank you, Justin.

Bill Furman

Management

Thank you, Justin.

Justin Long

Analyst

Maybe to start with one on the delivery guidance for 16,000 units to 18,000 units this year, how much of that is secured in the backlog today? And I know you called out the 1,500 units for Brazil, but could you also speak to the number of deliveries you're expecting in Europe?

Justin Roberts

Management

So in our delivery -- hey, good morning, Justin, this is Justin. In our delivery guidance, between 80% to 90% of that is already included in our backlog at 831. And then our European expectations are kind of in that 4,000 to 4,500 range. So that's kind of the current expectation, although I think if you talk to our European management team, they would be looking to figure out ways to increase production, because demand is strong over there.

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then secondly, I wanted to ask about the leasing and services segment, we saw a spike this quarter, any color that you can provide around the tailwinds that you called out, I think it was higher interim rent and lease modification fees, anything that was kind of one time in the quarter, and maybe you can help us think about modeling this segment in fiscal 2022, just because of all the moving pieces with GBX Leasing and syndication activity?

Justin Roberts

Management

That's a great, great question. And I think that I wouldn't characterize anything that occurred in Q4 as one-off or non-recurring, it's just a part of kind of our business where it can -- it's more a matter of timing at times. I think going forward, I mean, as you build a lease fleet, it is a little bit of a slower build on revenue, it takes a while for that to really gain momentum. We're very pleased with the progress we've made this year. But it's going to take -- we think that we see an improvement and some modest growth on the top line revenue. But at the same time, our margin profitability will be I would say, similar to what we've seen in past years in that 50% to 60% range. But ultimately, it's -- I would say, I think that we are going to work to have a stronger year than maybe what we're guiding to right now. And we'll see what we're saying in a year.

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Right. And I would just add on to that, that yes, I think we're taking a modest approach to growing the number of railcars that we have on our balance sheet. And as Justin said, it'll take some time to offset the one-time pop that you might get from selling those externally. But we think for Greenbrier’s long-term having that repeatable revenue that stable cash flow will benefit us as that fleet grows. The other thing that I would add when you're asking about deliveries is, we've been doing this for a while, we are very focused on the safety of our workforce. We don't want to put too much pressure as we're adding all these additional lines to also be increasing production rates in a way that really isn't the safest way possible for us to operate. I know that the -- our commercial team and our manufacturing folks, they've got a lot of opportunities and ways that we could but right now we're taking a more modest approach. And we can update that as we progress through the year and see how we get traction.

Adrian Downes

Management

At Lorie, just specifically to the modeling question on leasing. We do expect leasing to have a sizable three-year impact on EBITDA it's already beginning to grow rapidly. It's beginning to rival some of the other smaller business units. Already we are 75% again, above the target of $200 million when you accounted portfolio purchase. So we do expect this to be a significant business. And I think we -- as we have in the last couple of quarters we will be breaking out information on the leasing business so that it -- will have more transparency and on leverage and earnings.

Justin Long

Analyst

Great. Thanks, everyone. I appreciate the time.

Justin Roberts

Management

Thank you, Justin.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Elkott with Cowen.

Matthew Elkott

Analyst · Cowen.

Good morning and Lorie and Bill. Congratulations on the upcoming transition. Justin, I think you said 80% to 90% of the expected production for fiscal ‘22 was already in the backlog. But the demand environment is pretty strong and improving. Are you guys factoring in very modest orders throughout the year for ‘22 delivery because you're hitting close to maximum production capacity after the right sizing you have done in the last couple of years?

Justin Roberts

Management

I'm going to hand it over to Mr. Comstock, who is living his daily [indiscernible].

Brian Comstock

Management

Thanks, thanks Justin and thanks for the question, Matt. Right now, I think yes as Justin said that currently we're looking at probably 80% to 85% of the orders are in the queue. But we continue to look at flexibility in our manufacturing lines, and how we ramp those lines up to accommodate customers and customer’s needs. And I think one of the important factors, if you think about the future, is we're seeing customers willing to push out orders into 2023 and even talking in 2024. So from our perspective, we're getting good long-term synergies on some core lines that will take us well into the future. So it's really kind of a combination of continuing to field orders which are continued to be very robust and diverse and accommodating as we can. But also, you've got a lot of people that are looking for long-term sustainable production, which is a positive trend for us.

Matthew Elkott

Analyst · Cowen.

Can you talk to pricing and lease rates? Just while you're on that subject? And by [queue] you don't mean the quarter? You mean, the pipeline business here?

Brian Comstock

Management

Correct, correct, correct. Yes, I think, as I said, my opening remarks, on the leasing side and I think others have reported this as well, we continue to see positive momentum in lease pricing and probably more importantly in lease term, which is a good opportunity for the industry and pricing in general. There has been good discipline in the industry recently. And we're seeing margin enhancement as orders progress through the quarter.

Matthew Elkott

Analyst · Cowen.

That's very helpful, Brian, because you address part of my follow up question. So your production guidance implies at the midpoint about 31% growth, which is pretty solid. But do you guys have a sense of how much high steel prices as well as supply chain disruptions are limiting the growth production potential?

Brian Comstock

Management

Yes this is Brian, good, Matt? Great question. And something I'm sure that a lot of people are interested in. Today, we haven't seen any negative impact due to the high steel prices. And in theory, if you listen to all the great forecasters out there, we'll probably near peak at least we hope we're near the peak cycle of the high steel prices. And so far, we really haven't seen any pullback at this stage.

Matthew Elkott

Analyst · Cowen.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

Allison Poliniak

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Hi, good morning and [echo] again, congrats Bill, you certainly built a strong foundation of both business and talents. And certainly leading Greenbrier in great hands. So best of luck to you both on that. With that, Lorie, I know Bill had mentioned you have your own strategy that you're coming forward with any high level thoughts just as you kind of look at the portfolio today, any businesses that maybe you think needs a little bit more attention here that you want to focus on in the earlier stages, any color in terms of your strategic direction here?

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Thanks, Allison and thanks for the [board] of confidence. At this time, I don't think I really want to start unpacking what might be our strategy going forward, I want to make certain that we do that in a more deliberate fashion a little bit further down the line. We have grown an amazing company over the last 40 years and we've done some really great things. There's always opportunities to look at things through a different lens, and think about how we might enhance things. I think Brian mentioned also focusing on how we integrate better maybe some of our operations and how we go to market to be a better solutions provider for our customers.

Allison Poliniak

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Got it. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to get back to Justin's questions on the leasing and services side benefit of lease modification fees, can you guys give us any color and I guess how impactful were those fees anyway to help quantify that to some extent kind of what they were and what the impact was?

Justin Roberts

Management

Well, I think, as we've spoken about four years potentially for even decades, Greenbrier works with our customers to solve their problems. And so we've had customers that have needed to make changes to lease terms and make changes to existing contracts and we've worked with them and sometimes it's a matter of -- it does require that we are made whole or if we are changing contract terms. And so at the end of the day, it is a benefit that has minimal cost attached. So it flows through the margin 100%, but at the same time it's not something that is non-recurring. It's just a normal part of business, but it was a benefit in the fourth quarter and was a one of the reasons why our leasing and services margin was a little higher than it has been historically.

Allison Poliniak

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Got it. Thank you. I’ll pass the line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

Bascome Majors

Analyst · Susquehanna.

Yes, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to clarify with the new accounting and elimination and capitalizations of cars, when you say 16,000 to 18,000 deliveries globally and the 1.4 capitalization, you're implying your production rate is 17,500 to 19,500?

Justin Roberts

Management

Yes, Bascome.

Bascome Majors

Analyst · Susquehanna.

Okay. Just want to make sure that was added. Thank you. And maybe bigger picture. I mean, there's been so many changes over the last five, six years both in the market and in your portfolio with acquisitions and this lease vehicle and that becoming a core part of the story. Can we take a cut at some of the key inputs if we're the mid cycle earnings power of new Greenbrier, I understand that you probably don't want to throw an EPS number range out there, but things that we should consider on how the business should be doing when the markets humming at a steady state? Thank you.

Justin Roberts

Management

Yes, Bascome, let me take a shot at that and then Lorie and even Brian may want to step in and comment. I -- and thanks for the comment about the changes in the last five years, the company has dramatically grown and changed. I think if you look at the strategic drive behind this, it's multi continent now. In the North American market, we have come a long ways from having a single factory with two production lines to multiple facilities in the United States. And in Mexico, we have a strong market position and every freight car that we want to be in, in North America, we have a very strong market share. And what does that mean it mean from a business perspective, it means we see a lot more opportunities and we are at the table, we have a place at the table and every transaction that comes up. And that's not just in manufacturing, it's also in services. Lorie mentioned services and integration, service design, leasing. All of this fits together in a go-to-market strategy, that gives us a lot more leverage. And that should translate into higher margins, greater volumes and more profitability, scaled matters. And we have achieved scale over this last five years. And we'll strive to continue to do that. Lorie plays out the strategy that she's working with our team on now. And of course, I would say that it would be premature for her to say much about that because some of the people sitting around the room have not yet had the opportunity to board has have had to review that in depth. We'll be doing it in the next several months and it will say more about it. But it's a bigger, stronger platform. And I think it bodes well for the net of that we've got out there to capture opportunities, translate them into value.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Hey, good morning, everyone. And yes, congratulations to everyone who's facing a change. Just to level set expectations if I work through your initial guidance that normally SPEs and your SG&A guide and I don't make big changes to dispositions or minority interest, it looks like initially EPS will be around $2, maybe a little bit less? Am I thinking correctly about that or am I missing something?

Adrian Downes

Management

I don't think we're ready to get into that level of guidance or that granularity at this point. I think, bearing in mind the continued shifting in the landscape, we wanted to provide a little more color on our fiscal 2022. But at the end of the day, it's -- there's a tremendous number of moving pieces both positively. And some things that we aren't aware of. So at the end of the day from Mr. Comstock perspective, he's getting regular feedback and conversations about how can we increase throughput. On the flip side, we continue to have supply chain issues, labor shortages in the U.S. So it's trying to find a balance of how can we provide some additional clarity for you guys who are having to build modals and but also put out something that is reasonable.

Lorie Tekorius

Management

And I would just say, I mean, we are empathetic to the fact that you guys are trying to build a modal. But I would expect that you appreciate that we're running a business that isn't just about the quarter or the year. And we're focused on all the different things. And I think the last 18 months have certainly shown us that try not to be too confident that you know what's going to happen, there have been too many things that have gone on, I would hope that you would have some appreciation for the fact that this team has been at this for quite some time, we've got a great network of shops, whether it's for maintenance or building new cars, we've got a great commercial team. And we are focused on driving more value to the bottom line. And we'll be doing that as quickly as we can. But we also want to make certain that we take care of our workforce, and our customers.

Bill Furman

Management

Let me just add something this business is really interesting and is very resilient. The mirror volume of orders can drive momentum overhead absorption, if you can increase production on a single line from 2 per day to 10 per day. And as you see the order pipeline filling up, one has to be really optimistic about the ability to build on operating momentum, the amount of that momentum is in the environment we're in. And perhaps we're being a little too cautionary about talking and talking about this environment, I think we're on the downhill slope of the pandemic if we keep hearing and seeing many things that disturb us. But we haven't really been touched by the supply chain difficulties, we managed to dodge all those bullets. So the kind of thing that can happen in a year like this is really not reflective of what the last 12 months might have done. We were very happy with those start we had with leasing made a big difference. But I think this will be the year of margin enhancements, revenue enhancement and operating efficiency. And I know that Brian Comstock and Lorie and I and Justin and others have been talking about that a lot. It's just really hard to lay it out and anticipate it all.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Totally understand. I appreciate all that qualitative detail. And really that's that was the motivation for my question. You call out the inflationary environment and labor and supply chain issues, which we are certainly seeing across a lot of different companies. And that's what I was really trying to get to in terms of 40% of deliveries in the front half. And then the inherent operating leverage with increasing production offset by some of these issues. I guess I'll just ask, a follow up. Does manufacturing gross margins stay double-digit in the first half given the headwinds we're facing or should we be more conservative in our models, just as you work through the near-term challenges? A – Justin Roberts: I'll jump out on a [indiscernible] impact expected to be double-digit in the first half of the year and stronger in the back half of the year.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Got it.

Bill Furman

Management

And Brian Comstock is vigorously shaking his head. yes.

Brian Comstock

Management

Yes, absolutely does Steve. When we look at pricing, there's no reason to think that pricing is going to recede at all. And we'll see improvements throughout the year.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Since we're later in the call, can I ask a big picture question or I can get back in queue if there's someone waiting?

Bill Furman

Management

Go ahead.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Thank you. So Bill, I wrote this for you, Bill, but Brian, you brought it up. If you just pull up 10 years of railroad traffic, the trend line is flat at best, maybe slightly down. Coal has obviously been a big part of that. But regardless, there just hasn't been a lot of traffic growth outside of their modal. And what are your thoughts on what and when will cause this low or no growth trend to reverse? You brought it up in your slides, but I'm wondering if you could just address that more directly?

Bill Furman

Management

Well, that's a tough question. We have our public policy guide just on here today. And if you have been paying close attention to everything going on in the government, which is almost impossible to do, the SPB has gotten a lot more [indiscernible], it could be that SPB oversight of the rail industry will be a stimulus to a more responsive customer driven, as opposed to profit for the short-term driven thing. Everybody has a hard time understanding a simple fact about our industry. The traffic loadings are an amalgamation of ton miles from 20 to 30 different commodity types and sources. We've had booms and coal, we've had booms and center beam cars for a lumber transportation, we've had booms in small cube covered hoppers for the transport of sand and oil, oil by rail. So all of those things flush through and they produce the statistics to which you refer. But in fact, if you look at what Brian mentioned in Europe and you extrapolate it to the United States, and you look at ESG environmental impact, carbon footprints, rail is the place that growth should take place, it should occur it’s three times more efficient carbon -- in carbon use and pollution, it uses a lot less fuel to produce -- to ship a ton mile. It could be that regulatory environment would -- a different regulatory environment would give a lot of stimulus to rail traffic. But the traffic and demographics that we see with all of the negative things that people talk about for our industry for railcar builders has been positive, the velocity has declined. The traffic has sold stronger year-over-year is really a great environment, particularly as you look out in the future and see what might occur and what almost has to occur in rail over the next decade.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Appreciate that color. Thank you.

Justin Roberts

Management

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Justin Roberts

Management

Hey, Ken.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst · Bank of America.

Hi, guys, good afternoon. So congrats Bill on a great career in founding and building Greenbrier and great working with you over the past decade and change and to Lorie on the road ahead. And congrats and best of luck. It seems like just -- let me hit on yields. I mean, you've hit on a lot of on the build side, but on yield that $665 million backlog 6,700 units that that puts the average at just under 100,000, down from 105 last quarter, 115 two quarters ago. And I know that there's always mix and everything that you talked about but it seemed like you were just about to start talking about pricing and what's going on underlying that. Can you give us any further information on the mix or what's driving it to understand what core pricing is looking like underneath that?

Brian Comstock

Management

Yes, this is Brian, I can give you a little bit of flavor on that. So when you're looking at higher ASP is a lot of time you're looking at higher delivery especially tank cars and things of that nature in this particular cycle what we're seeing is a very diverse order book. It's really every car type that you can imagine. But in essence, you've got a lot more intermodal that are coming into play, you have a lot more covered hopper cars and you'd have a lot more [indiscernible] and those typically have a -- an ASP of somewhere under $100,000. So that gives you a little bit of a blend, we're still seeing strong tanker demand, we're still seeing some automotive demand despite chip shortages. But at the end of the day, what's really driving ASP is the large volumes of what I call more general freight cars.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst · Bank of America.

Great, appreciate that. So it sounds like a fairly good solid mix across the board. So if you're just talking about your scaling 16,000, 18,000 or I guess really 17,000 and 19,500 where do you think your utilization level is at now? Lorie, I know you throw out some numbers -- real quick on the number of lines or facilities that you're at now. But where do you think capacity is versus that utilization? Is it still when you're fully up and running back to that low 20s, mid 20s? And then Lorie, it seemed like you were throwing out why would the backlog you can't or choose not to rent quicker or it sounds like you were throwing out more safety or is it supply chain, maybe just thoughts on why can't rent quicker?

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Sure. So from a utilization perspective, I'd say we're probably somewhere in 70% to 75% utilized, I would say, our production folks do an amazing job of at times, even getting beyond what we think might be capacity there. And they can be quite creative at times, I guess I was just a little bit as trying to give some color as to where there might be upside, we do want to be mindful as we're bringing people back. And even if there are people that have worked in our facilities before, it takes a little bit of time to get back in the groove of working in a safe manner, and making certain that we're building quality railcars. So we don't want to be pushing so hard, that we push something until it breaks. I think, again, we're not the only company out there that is in the midst of ramping up to respond to improving demand. But also be mindful that we're doing that on the backs of our workforce that we need to be mindful of that workforce and making certainly don't push too hard. That being said, they're incredible men and women, and they do a great job every day. So that's part of why we're not giving explicit guidance, because we think that as things move through the year, as more people get vaccinated, as the supply chain starts loosening up and improving, there could be a number of factors that will allow this to be more positive than the guidance that we've given, which is positive its growth off of where we have been. So I say that's kind of where we're going to and why we're giving the guidance that we've talked about.

Bill Furman

Management

Yes, I think every company that's talking about things that is has to have some cautionary remarks to be responsible. We have done this a long time. It's hard to bring people back very quickly. And it's a shorter term issue, we've got a lot of capacity. We've got a lot of design capability around the world. We're especially fortunate to have in North America, strong footprint in the United States, and labor availability in Mexico. So I think, personally, I'm very optimistic we can bring on cars expand our lines with and continue to keep our safety statistics. Let me just give you a couple of notes on safety. One of the reasons Lorie is focused on this is safety improves the welfare of our workforce. That is not only good as a thing to do, but it improves the workforces’ productivity. Our safety statistics over the past five years have been awesome. We're way below industry standards and we've been improving year-after-year. It is a core value of the company and it creates shareholder return through productivity. So what you're hearing from us is simply a little cautionary note that we don't want to push the throttle so far ahead that we hurt people and we bumped into supply chain issues, we have a capacity and if the ordered pipeline continues to be filled by the men and women who are doing that and leasing in commercial working with their brothers and sisters in manufacturing, I think we can be overhead absorption and other efficiencies, economies of utilization. This company can really do very well as we proven in earlier cycles.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thanks Bill. Thanks Lorie. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is a follow up from Justin Long with Stephens.

Justin Long

Analyst

Thanks for taking the follow up. I wanted to ask about quarter-to-date order activity just given we're two months into the quarter now. Have you seen any change in the level of orders and increase relative to what you saw on the fiscal fourth quarter? And then last one for me is just on the tax rate. Adrian, I don't know if there's any color you want to provide on 2022 just given how much that's been moving around?

Brian Comstock

Management

Hey, Justin, this is Brian. I'll take the first half of that question then pass it over to Adrian. On the order rate I would -- the way that I would lay it out as we're seeing that had very similar rates to Q4 was -- I don't see any slowdown at this stage. And I think we're the activity is very similar to Q4.

Justin Long

Analyst

Great. Thanks. And Adrian on the tax rate?

Adrian Downes

Management

Yes, we should say return to a more normalized tax rate for fiscal 2022. So 27ish percents in that range.

Lorie Tekorius

Management

Depending on what happens [indiscernible].

Adrian Downes

Management

Depending on what happens in the [indiscernible].

Justin Long

Analyst

Understood. Appreciate it. That's very helpful. Thanks again for the time.

Bill Furman

Management

Thank you.

Justin Roberts

Management

Thank you very much, everyone for your time and attention today. And if you have any follow up questions, please reach out to myself or investor relations at gbrx.com. Have a great Tuesday.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.