Phebe N. Novakovic
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Erin, and good morning. I am pleased to report that we had a very good third quarter, with revenues of $7.8 billion and net income of $651 million. We reported EPS of $1.84 per diluted share, $0.14 ahead of the year ago quarter and $0.03 better than the second quarter this year. This was also $0.16 per share better than consensus. So how did we get there? Revenue was 1.7% less than the third quarter 2012. Once again, however, revenue for each of our operating groups was higher than the year ago quarter, except for Combat Systems. The same is true for the first 9 months of the year. Revenue for the first 9 months is up over 2012 in our Aerospace, Marine Systems and Information Systems and Technology groups, but offset by a significant decline in Combat Systems revenue, leading the company down 1.4% for the first 9 months. The real story in the quarter, however, is the positive operating leverage achieved in the period. While revenue was down 1.7%, operating earnings were up 5.7% in the quarter, a clear reflection of positive operating leverage. This resulted in 12.3% overall operating margin. Net earnings and earnings per share were ahead of Q3 2012 by $51 million and 8.2%, respectively. The ratio of net earnings to revenue or return on sales was 8.4%. With respect to cash, we had $364 million of free cash flow from operations in the quarter, about 56% of net income. We had $1.3 billion for the first 3 quarters, about 69% of net income. In Q3, we repurchased slightly under 1.6 million shares for $134 million. Year-to-date, we have purchased over 9 million shares for $718 million. In addition, if we add that -- if we add to that number the 2 dividends paid this year -- recall that there was no dividend in Q1 because it was paid in the fourth quarter of last year -- we have returned $1.1 billion of the $1.3 billion or 87% of the free cash flow year-to-date to our shareholders. Let's turn to segment reporting for the quarter. First, Aerospace. Aerospace had a better-than-expected quarter with its highest quarterly revenue to date. Compared to third quarter 2012, operating earnings and margins were up $108 million and 290 basis points, respectively. Pretty strong. On a sequential basis, operating earnings and margins were both somewhat lower, as had been forecasted. Gulfstream margins were good and better than expected, but lower than last quarter for the reasons I provided during the second quarter conference call. Once again, we had good contribution from Jet Aviation, where they were operating at a loss a year ago. Our expectation in the fourth quarter is that revenues will be approximately the same as this quarter, but margins will not be as good. We will deliver 2 fewer large-cabin aircraft and will experience higher research and development costs with late [ph] scheduled launch assistance payments. We also have some program timing impacts of Jet -- at Jet on completions, all of which will compress margins. For the year, revenues will be consistent with prior outlook and margins for the group should improve slightly over prior guidance to the low-17% range. Combat Systems. Combat once again demonstrated the disciplined performance of a good cyclical, reporting 16.4% margin on revenues approximately 30% lower than the year-ago quarter. Land Systems and OTS had particularly strong margins on continuing cost reduction initiatives and strong program performance. ELS helped by returning to profitability in the quarter despite weak revenues. All in all, a really outstanding performance from an operating perspective. Compared to the year ago quarter, margins were up 240 basis points. Sequentially, revenue was somewhat lower, but operating margins were up 230 basis points. We do expect significantly higher revenue in the fourth quarter, but a drop in margins in our domestic business. For the full year, revenues should be 20% lower than last year and margins should be mid-14%, 10% higher than 2012 on a pro forma before charges basis. Marine group. Marine group revenues were higher than Q3 2012, but operating earnings and operating margins were down $16 million and 110 basis points, respectively, entirely as a result of the completion of the T-AKE program in Q4 2012. Nevertheless, operating earnings were good and operating margins at 10% were solid with good performance across each of our businesses. These are industry-leading margins. In Q4, we expect lower revenue and some very modest margin compression. For the year, Marine group revenues should be flat compared to the prior year and margins should be in the high 9% range. IS&T. IS&T remains a good news story from a revenue perspective. Revenues were higher this quarter than in Q3 '12 as well as the prior quarter this year, in a very tough market. Operating earnings and margins are up against Q3 '12 by $15 million and 30 basis points, respectively, and up $18 million and 60 basis points sequentially. This operating result was driven by improved performance at C4 Systems and AIS. For the fourth quarter, IS&T should see a bit less revenue than we had in the third quarter with a modest decrease in operating margins. There's still work to be done here but we are seeing steady improvement from an operating perspective. For the full year, IS&T revenues could be slightly lower than the prior year and margins should be in the high 7% range, consistent with prior guidance. Let me turn to our EPS guidance for the remainder of 2013. Last quarter, we increased our guidance to $6.85 to $6.95 of earnings per diluted share. We are again increasing our guidance somewhat to $6.90 to $7, assuming that there is no residual impact from the shutdown. We acknowledge that this quarter was better than anticipated and we are further along year-to-date than expected. However, I think our guidance, which is modestly increased, is not overly cautious and consistent with the current environment. In short, we had a great quarter and are hard at work trying to ensure that the full year will be beneficial for our shareholders, our customers and our employees. Erin?