Jeff Bornstein
Analyst · Credit Suisse
So, why don’t I walk from the first half to the second half a little bit in terms of kind how we’re thinking about it. There is no doubt we have a big second half to deliver on cash, and that’s similar to where we were last year. Relative to the first half, there is really three big drivers. One, we’ve got higher earnings, in line with our volume; our cost-out profile; and gains versus restructuring. In the first half, we had a $0.14 headwind; in the second half, with the gains, we’ll offset that $0.14 headwind and have -- $0.14 offset in earnings. We’ll have significantly better working capital performance. Although I think we feel pretty good about the second quarter. We generated $700 million in CFOA in the second quarter from working capital and that was almost $1.5 billion better than where we were in the second quarter of last quarter. I think importantly within that there was a couple hundred million of inventory improvement, which I don’t think we’ve ever realized in the second quarter of any year in recent history. As we look to the second half, the working capital will get better, largely driven by inventory, a bit by payables and we’ll have some receivables improvement. And that’s consistent where we were last year. So, working capital last year, we improved in the second half, better than $5 billion; we’re not anticipating $5 billion but looking more at just under $4 billion improvement this year. So, we think we’ve executed before, we can execute again in a similar way. And lastly, on contract assets, we still expect contract assets to be a cash usage in the second half but not nearly the rate that we saw in the first half. And we expect it will look very similar to the change in contract assets in the second half of last year, which was about $1.4 billion or $1.5 billion. So, if you look at second half cash flow versus 2016, we delivered $11 billion of CFOA in the second half of last year. We need to do about $1 billion more this year, which is primarily a function of earnings. And we expect working capital to be about $3.9 billion better in the second half. So, the total improvement for the year of about $3.3 billion and that’s less than the $5.1 billion of working capital improvement we had in the second half of last year. As I say contract asset has been a little bit of drag in the second half but in line with where we were in the second half of last year. And I’d say lastly, other operating, all the other elements of cash flow will be better in the second half than the first half and will be better substantially versus 2016. So that’s kind of how we think about going from the first half to the second half.