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Greif, Inc. (GEF)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Jun 8, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and Welcome to the Greif Inc Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Debra Strohmaier, Vice President of Corporate Communications for Greif. Thank you. You may begin.

Debra Strohmaier

President

Thank you, Kristine, good morning. As a reminder, you may follow this presentation on the web at Greif.com in the Investor Center under Conference Calls. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is also available on our website. We are on Slide 2. The information provided during this morning's call contains forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are on Slide 2 of this presentation in the Company's 2011 Form 10-K, and in other Company SEC filings as well as Company earnings news releases. As noted on Slide 3, this presentation uses certain non-GAAP financial measures, including those that exclude special items, such as restructuring charges and acquisition-related costs, and EBITDA before and after special items. EBITDA is defined as net income, plus interest expense net, plus income tax expense, less equity earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries, net of tax plus depreciation, depletion and amortization expense. Management believes the non-GAAP measures provide a better indication of operational performance and a more stable platform on which to compare the historical performance of the Company, than the most nearly equivalent GAAP data. All non-GAAP data in the presentation are indicated by footnotes. Tables showing the reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are available at the end of this presentation and in the second quarter 2012 earnings release. Giving prepared remarks today are in order of speaking, Senior Vice president and CFO, Rob McNutt; and President and CEO, David Fischer. I will now turn the call over to Mr. McNutt.

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Thank you, Deb. We're on Slide 4. During the second quarter we continue to focus on three key priorities which include increasing cash flow, improving working capital management, and successfully integrating recent acquisitions. The $161 million of cash from operations generated during the three months ended April 30 is a second quarter record and compares with $56 million for the same period last year. New accounts receivable credit facility for Europe benefitted second quarter 2012 cash from operations by about $30 million. We remain committed to further improvement in cash flow during the second half of the year. Through the Greif Business System we've been deploying tools and processes to improve our working capital management. We see initial signs of progress that should continue from these efforts. Working capital performance measures are being managed at the plant level in our facilities worldwide and the businesses report monthly on progress to David and me. Acquisition integration is proceeding as planned and initial synergies are being realized. These efforts include development of our three growth platforms of flexible products, drum reconditioning and rigid intermediate bulk containers, David will comment further on these later. The Greif Business System continues to be a catalyst for identifying savings and is also a strong integration tool for realizing synergies. As we enter the second half of our fiscal year, we continue to respond as appropriate to external influences related to the macroeconomic environment and market pressure especially in Europe. This involves implementing specific contingency plans and paying close attention to our cost structure. We're encouraged by the progress achieved thus far and will continue to monitor market by market and take appropriate actions. Please turn to Slide 5. This financial summary highlights key measures of our financial performance in second quarter 2012 compared with the same…

David B. Fischer

Management

Thank you, Rob. Please turn to Slide 13. During the second quarter, we made further progress by increasing cash flow and continuing to integrate our recent acquisitions, two of our top priorities for 2012. This resulted in a record second quarter cash from operations. As Rob mentioned, cash flow was also a record of the first six month of our fiscal year. We attribute these achievements to a company-wide focus on increasing cash and improving working capital. This focus has been sharpened by new analytical tools that are being embedded in our operations company-wide, all the way to the plant floor level. We expect to make additional progress during the second half of the coming year. Last August, we reported during the quarter's call that we saw the beginning of a downward business spiral in Europe. Now, we see indications of stability in certain countries and sub regions. The initial signs of improvement that we noted in certain regions of the world during last quarter's conference call are still visible. However, a number of issues remain to be resolved before we can be comfortable that a new normal economic outlook is in place. Until then, we continue to execute plans to control those things that we can't control by adapting our cost structure to anticipated sales level through the Greif Business System initiatives, work force and shift pattern adjustments and if necessary further network rationalization. In Europe, we continue to respond aggressively to macro-economic developments and political issues. Much credit goes to Ivan Signorelli and his team, our Division President for EMEA Rigid operations. They are monitoring the horizon for indication of market changes up or down as scaling their individual operations to local demand and forecast as needed. Further, our Flexible business with the majority of it sales currently…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Our first question is from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question. Matthew Wooten - Robert W. Baird & Co.: Good morning. It’s Matt Wooten sitting in for Ghansham.

David Fischer

Analyst · Robert W

Good morning Matt. Matthew Wooten - Robert W. Baird & Co.: I was hoping you could walk us through the volume trajectory for both rigid and flexible throughout the quarter and in particular is the volume weakness in Europe broad based or just specific to certain product lines?

David Fischer

Analyst · Robert W

We anticipated volumes would be a key portion of this conversation. So I’ll try to walk you through what I consider a very wide mixed bag of volume indicators around the world in an orderly fashion. So Rob covered some of the numbers in aggregated form and I’ll try to offer some color commentary. On a macro basis, only our paper business in Asia Pacific are up sequentially quarter over quarter for this year and for 2012 year-to-date versus 2011. The rest of the businesses remain below levels seen both quarterly sequentially year-to-date from 2011. However, we’ve experienced some slightly stronger volumes in comparison of Q1 versus Q2 both in North America and Europe, excluding our flexibles business which has remained relatively flat and I’ll come back to those numbers in just a second. Latin America is probably the one area that’s declined sequentially quarter over quarter in 2012, reflecting tougher economic conditions within the region as well as an entering of the low season within the region. Sequentially, if you look at our business from Q2 versus Q1 this year, North America rigid has increased a bit more than we expected. It varies region by region across the country more than what we had anticipated. But they generally fall in the 10% to 15% range for Q2 versus Q1 which again was a bit more than we had expected. For Europe, it’s almost a similar story to North America with the second quarter Q1 increase in the low double digits to high single digits range, say in the 8% to 12% range. again, wide variation depending on the region of the continent and I’ll mention Russia as a particular interesting market these days which has shown quite a bit of strength within the region, especially relative to western Europe.…

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Yes, this is Rob. In terms of free cash flow allocation, we’ve got a long history of the dividend and clearly that’s an important component of it. Capital spending to maintain facilities under our current structure we believe is in the $85 million to $90 million range and that’s certainly a priority. We’ve said that we’ll spend $130 million this year on CapEx. We’re looking at some projects towards the latter part of the year potentially that are quick payback, high return. Whether we do them late this year or early next year may move that number around a little bit and then debt pay down obviously is a key component as you see reflected in what we’ve done with cash thus far. Matthew Wooten - Robert W. Baird & Co.: Thank you and good luck with the rest of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Gresh with JP Morgan Chase. Please proceed with your question. Phil M. Gresh - JP Morgan Chase & Co.: Hey, good morning guys.

David Fischer

Analyst · Phil Gresh with JP Morgan Chase

Morning Phil. Phil M. Gresh - JP Morgan Chase & Co.: Just want to follow up on the volume trends and as you look at your revised guidance, what are you assuming for volumes in the rigid business in the back half and is it basically in sync with the run rate that you’re seeing here exiting the second quarter and entering into the third quarter?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Yes, Phil, this is Rob and as we look forward, the market conditions that David described in terms of continuing to firm, although at a slower rate probably than we anticipated earlier in the year in Europe and continued solid performance in North America as we mentioned. As David mentioned, Asia-Pacific has been a bright spot for us in volumes and we continue to see – expect for the balance of the year that we'll continue to see year-over-year improvement there and Latin America continuing to be somewhat soft, but not materially different from what we've been seeing here in recent months.

Phil Gresh - JPMorgan Chase and Company

Analyst · Phil Gresh with JP Morgan Chase

Okay. I mean at what point if you just kind of run rate the progress that you have been making here, what point do you turn positive on volumes in Rigid?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

We have to gain back globally about another 5% if you’re talking about a year-over-year type number to go positive year-over-year.

David Fischer

Analyst · Phil Gresh with JP Morgan Chase

Same structure basis.

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Same structure basis.

Phil Gresh - JPMorgan Chase and Company

Analyst · Phil Gresh with JP Morgan Chase

I guess let me just ask my question in a different way, because it seems like – I'm not sure about this, it seems like the volumes might still be down a little bit as we progress through the back half and currency is a negative. So if I look at the second half earnings from last year and the first half of this year and I just add all those up, it's something in the mid to high $400 million range on EBITDA and it seems like volumes might be down and currency is a headwind. So I guess I'm wondering what the offsetting positives are that would get it to the $500 million to $525 million or just correct me if I'm missing something in the volumes there.

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Sure. I think as you may recall from David's comments that last year we started to see weakening in Europe in the third quarter in terms of volumes and we talked about that on our third quarter call and our fourth quarter call. And so expect that as we've seen some improvement in volumes here in the recent months and sequentially quarter-over-quarter, we certainly got a year-over-year easier comp in the back half of the year than we did in the first half of the year. And so that’s one component of it. The other pieces that fall into line there, you're exactly right on currency and I’m sure you've got a better forecast on currencies than we do, during the month of May we saw a significant deterioration in the Euro. And just to put that into perspective, it's about $1.2 million of operating profit for every $0.01 decline in the Euro for us. So if you run that math and depending on what your forecast on the Euro is, you come to that conclusion. The other pieces that you've got to continue to look at is you look at the cost structure and the work that David pointed out that our team in Europe has done to substantially improve the cost structure year-over-year. Those guys have taken a lot of cost out of the structure. And so I think that operating performance, we'll continue to see better operating performance relatively in terms of the income and cash flow performance versus the volume performance continuing to be a little softer. So I think put all those together and that's where we’re comfortable at this point with the $500 million to $525 million. Now again if the Euro continues to stay in this $1.24 range, that adjusts accordingly. Phil Gresh – JPMorgan Chase and Company: Okay, thanks. And then just a follow-up question is with your Flexibles business, obviously the margins got a little bit worse there quarter-over-quarter, even I mean actually in the special items. So how are you thinking about that margin target that you have out there for 2015 at this stage? Does the volume challenges makes you rethink that at all?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

It makes us look at it all the time. I don't know about rethinking or move off of it just yet. We remain committed to the 15% margin. We need to pick up sales and volumes over the next couple of years to the tune of around $200 million, $250 million over I guess the 36 month period to get to that type of level. Also recognize that during this time period when we are having startup costs for new capacities coming on, both Saudi hub getting ready to fire up over the coming months as well as our shipping sack business. They've also put a drag on margins, particularly when we are also at the same time consolidating the heritage network and still integrating four companies into one in Western Europe. Phil Gresh – JPMorgan Chase and Company: Okay, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Josephson with KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question. Adam Josephson – KeyBanc: Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Rob, one question on operating cash flow. Did it benefit from the change in the euro or other non-working capital factors and if so, by what order of magnitude?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Yes. If you look during the quarter, we ended the quarter, I think our Euro dollar translation was about 132 during the quarter and the deterioration in the Euro really was material after quarter end. So it's not really a material factor during the course of the quarter. Adam Josephson – KeyBanc: Okay. Just a follow-up on that. Have your free cash flow expectations for the year changed since last quarter?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

We have not given guidance on free cash flow. Specifically we give the EBITDA guidance, but the major components that I spoke too in terms of EBITDA guidance now $500 million to $525 million. Still in that 130 range on CapEx with the caveat I mentioned earlier related to timing of some specific projects near the tail end of the year. And then continue to anticipate the core 20% cash taxes, continuing to anticipate similar interest, continue to be committed to the $25 million improvement in working capital year-over-year. So if you add all that together, depending on what your own forecast for income and how you feel about the EBITDA, we're still in the same ballpark. Adam Josephson – KeyBanc: Thanks for that, Rob. And just one last one, regarding Europe. At what point will you determine if current business conditions in Europe represent something close to normal conditions such that you'd have to make a long-term decision about reducing your presence there?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

Well, that's a tough call. We’re watching this thing daily and weekly and I'll only tell you that we'll make those decision when they get to the time where can't tolerate the cost of an operation that is in a certain market. We don't want to leave markets unless we have to and we're not to that point yet, but you read as much of the press as we do and maybe more. And the puzzling thing for us right now is that our business is still showing some signs firming there despite the macro economic conditions that seem to be deteriorating. Adam Josephson – KeyBanc: Thanks for that. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst · Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question

Good morning gentlemen.

David Fischer

Analyst · Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question

Morning Gabe.

Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst · Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question

Two questions. One, can you talk about competitive pressures in Europe? And I think you guys mentioned in your prepared remarks a little bit of North America, but I may have misheard.

Robert M. McNutt

Management

I can comment on either one of those. On a relative basis we're still seeing fierce competitive pressures in Europe. It varies region by region. I would say that some of the mature markets of Germany, Netherlands, France are probably the most acute, if you will, where you have a fair number of competitors who are all experiencing the same type of downturn. So it has been fierce. In recent months there has been some improvement in margins slight from where we were, but still fairly significantly off 2008 peaks and also still off versus same time period last year. So while it isn't going down any further, it's not dramatically improving and we don't anticipate it to improve from in the near-term anyway. In North America, we obviously have competitive pressures in commodity type business across-the-board, but it is less acute than Europe at this point in time.

Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst · Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And with respect to raw material, things have come off a little bit since April and that's I guess more meaningful for your quarter. Can you talk about any headwinds that you may have had in the second quarter and maybe how that transitions that tailwind in the back half of the year?

Robert M. McNutt

Management

As far as current conditions on raw material and in second quarter, one thing to note that stands out above all the others is probably polypropylene, particularly not only globally, but in Europe. You're talking about having to pass through 25% to 30% increases in polypropylene during the time period, a little less in high-density polyethylene for sure. Steel has softened a bit in the global market in my opinion. Despite the rhetoric we hear from producers out there, the markets have slightly turned and for the first time in a while we've seen a divergence in steel pricing geographically around the world whereas before steel pricing was fairly uniform which, let's say not prevented, but alleviated the incentive to import across geographic borders steel supply to our operation. In recent times due to the softening in Asia you’ve seen steel prices achieve a level below, let's say, North America or Europe that have allowed some of that importation to resume. But all markets for steel I think have softened in recent times and we are anticipating a moderate softening both in steel and plastics for the back half of the year, at least for the foreseeable future, driven clearly by the economic slowdown and lower capacity utilization by suppliers.

Gabe Hajde - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst · Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Fischer, we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for further comments.

David B. Fischer

Management

Thank you, Christine. If you would please turn to Slide 18. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are encouraged by the record cash flow for the first six months of 2012 and progress regarding acquisition integration. We expect further achievements during the second half of the year which will help improve our performance, strengthen the balance sheet and position us for more profitable growth. I will now turn it over to Deb to provide replay information.

Debra Strohmaier

President

Thanks, David. A replay of this conference call will be available in approximately one hour on the Company's website at www.greif.com. We appreciate your interest and participation in this conference call this morning. This concludes today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines. Have a meaningful day. Thank you.