Earnings Labs

Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEMI)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 24, 2026

$4.44

+1.60%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-5.01%

1 Week

-14.84%

1 Month

-15.41%

vs S&P

-24.72%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gemini's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

Thanks, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining this morning for Gemini's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Ryan Todd, Head of Investor Relations at Gemini. Joining me on the call today are Gemini's founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss; and Interim CFO, Danijela Stojanovic. Yesterday, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements, which may vary materially from actual results and are based on management's current expectations, forecasts and assumptions. Information concerning the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause these results to differ is included in our SEC filings. Our discussion today will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the shareholder letter on our Investor Relations website and on the SEC's website. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for GAAP measures. We'll start today's call with prepared remarks and then take questions. And with that, let me turn the call over to our founders, Cameron and Tyler.

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan. Cameron here. 2025 was a remarkable year for Gemini. We crossed the threshold into the public markets and became a public company on September 12 after being a private company for over a decade. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was $115,000. Since then, Bitcoin has traveled down to $60,000 and then back up to around $70,000 where it hovers today. A reminder that one of the biggest challenges for crypto builders and investors is its cyclical nature. And a reminder that in order to move beyond these cycles, you need to build beyond them. We started as a Bitcoin company. We became a crypto company. We are now becoming a markets company. If Gemini's first decade was building a bridge to the future of money, today, we are building a bridge to the future of money in markets via a super app. Our first foray into people's daily financial lives beyond buy, sell and store crypto began with the Gemini credit card, which delivered strong growth last year. In 2025, card sign-ups grew nearly 15x and credit card revenue reached $33.1 million, up 185% year-over-year. Many of these Gemini credit card customers engage with Gemini multiple times a day to earn crypto rewards when they spend with the Gemini credit card. December marked a new era for Gemini with the launch of Gemini Predictions. We believe prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today's capital markets. They offer a profound and boundless opportunity to leverage the wisdom of the crowds and the power of markets to provide unique insights into the future. Our investment in securing a designated contract market DCM license from the CFTC to launch our own prediction marketplace positions us as an early mover on this new and exciting frontier. We…

Danijela Stojanovic

Analyst

Thank you, Cameron and Tyler, and great to speak with everyone. Before I turn to the numbers, I'll briefly note that I stepped into the interim CFO role earlier this year after serving as Gemini's Chief Accounting Officer since May of 2025. I've been closely involved in the company's financial reporting, the IPO process and the prior 2 quarters as a public company. The broader finance organization remains fully in place, and there has been no disruption to our financial reporting or operational execution. I will begin with a few key takeaways from the quarter before walking through the results in more detail. First, revenue grew sequentially despite a materially weaker crypto trading environment in Q4. Second, the business continued to diversify meaningfully. Services revenue more than doubled year-over-year and now represent over 1/3 of our revenue. And third, the restructuring actions we announced earlier this year repositioned the company with a significantly lower cost base going into 2026. Now turning to the results. Net revenue for the fourth quarter was $56.4 million, up 13% from $49.8 million in Q3. This growth occurred despite a more challenging market backdrop. The biggest driver of that change was volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin fell nearly 47% from its October high, and that environment put real pressure on trading volumes and transaction fees. The credit card business kept growing through it, which helped offset some of that, but Q4 was a harder macro quarter than Q3. I'll walk through the key components. Transaction revenue was $26.7 million, up slightly from $26.3 million in Q3 on spot volumes of $11.5 billion compared to $16.4 billion in Q3. Retail volumes came in at $1.6 billion and institutional at $9.9 billion. As a reminder, we earn fees from both retail and institutional customers with rates…

Ryan Todd

Analyst

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs, who asks, could you update us on the drivers of the recent executive departures and how this fits into your new strategy?

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

Thanks for this question. So this summer was a different world. And when we IPO-ed in September, the price of Bitcoin was about $115,000 per coin. Of course, the markets dropped significantly from that point in time. But in addition, our ability to build a super app in America with predictions, there's now a path forward for that. And with the inflection point of AI, we have determined that we can move faster as a smaller, flatter AI-enabled organization that is still, of course, very much founder-led. So we think that we have the right team and the right organizational structure for today and tomorrow.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

Our next question comes from Matt Coad at Truist, who asks, you continue to see traction growing your user base despite the rough crypto market backdrop. What do you believe is driving this user growth? And how do you plan to cross-sell prediction markets into this large and growing user base?

Danijela Stojanovic

Analyst

Thanks for the question. I think I can start here and then maybe kick it off to Cameron or Tyler to speak a little bit more on predictions. So we're very pleased by the continued growth we see in our user base, particularly given the broader market backdrop. I think one of the key drivers here is we're continuing to see meaningful user acquisition through our credit card program and just alongside broader engagement driven by new products that we're introducing and diversifying our revenue base, such as predictions. So we'll hand it over to see if Cameron or Tyler want to touch on predictions a little bit more.

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

So Gemini started -- when we started in 2015, we were a Bitcoin company. And people came to us and they could buy, sell and store Bitcoin. Over time, we became a crypto company, and we added additional money words like stake, where users could stake their assets with us. And then we added the Gemini credit card, and that's become an active part of people's financial lives who want to earn crypto back every time they swipe. And we're going to continue to add things to our product where users have reasons to do more with us over time. And eventually, like a number of these activities will continue to be independent of crypto cycles. And I think that we're excited to see the engagement with prediction markets, our credit card and other things that we're going to bring to the Gemini app so that people don't have a reason to go elsewhere.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

The next question comes from Adam Frisch at Evercore, who asks, can you help us frame the path to sustain positive stand-alone card economics, specifically the relative contributions from rewards optimization, lower acquisition costs, provision and credit normalization and cheaper broader funding capacity?

Danijela Stojanovic

Analyst

I can take this one. Thanks for the question, Adam. So we're really encouraged by the progress that we made in Q4, reaching near breakeven on the card. The card business has scaled really quickly, and we believe it has a clear path to profitability as the portfolio matures. There's a few primary levers that we think of. So first, on the revenue side, we're seeing strong growth driven by interchange as spend increases. And then also important to note, interest income is still under earning relative to the size of the receivables space. So as the portfolio seasons and matures, interest income becomes a meaningful tailwind. And then on the cost side, we have several levers really. So rewards are the largest expense today, but these were intentional and front-loaded to drive adoption and really establish the credit card, and it worked. We went from roughly 30,000 open accounts at the start of '25 to now over 150,000 as of March 1. And when you think about it, the Bitcoin card has only been out for about 9 months, XRP for about 5 months. So we're just getting started with this program. And rewards are really fully within our control, and we expect to optimize those over time. And to add to that, we've also really been pleased with the organic sign-up direction on a smaller spend base. We're still averaging well north of 100 sign-ups a day, which is more than double where we were a year ago. And then we're also seeing improvements in bank fees as we scale, which will reflect better underlying economics. And then from a credit perspective, the performance is trending in the right direction. We see loss rates stabilizing and also continuing to improve as the book matures. And then finally, on funding. So while funding costs are now coming into the model, we expect those to become more efficient as the portfolio grows and also as financing options expand. The expansion of the funding facility is really an important step. And longer term, we see opportunities to lower the cost of capital and diversify funding sources as the portfolio grows. So putting it all together, we're already near breakeven on a pre-provision basis and the path to sustained profitability is driven really by a combination of portfolio seasoning, cost optimization and scale-driven efficiencies. So we don't need one single lever to do all the work. It's really incremental improvements across each of these areas that we believe will drive the card business into consistent profitability.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

The next question comes from Michael Cyprys at Morgan Stanley. 15,000 users have used Prediction Markets through the end of February. How has that translated to revenue? Where do you see the growth potential from there? How do you compete versus peers that have a higher number of active users?

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

Thanks for this question, Michael. So we will provide an update on revenue in the near future, but it's very early at this point. But we are very encouraged with the fact that 15,000 customers have already engaged with this marketplace, which is brand new, and we did not have even a quarter ago. So we're very excited that our users are engaging with the product. We continue to grow that number on a daily basis and add many new contracts to the offering. I think crypto is a great example. I think we started with monthly contracts. We are now down -- moved down to weekly, daily, hourly, 15-minute and just offering all these different types of intervals and ways for people to hedge and trade around the price of crypto, and we're just getting started. So we're very encouraged. I think that looking at the market as a whole, it's also very early for this market, and we see the pie only growing from here. And we think we're one of the few people who are building the full end-to-end marketplace for predictions. And we're excited that our customers -- it's resonating with them.

Tyler Winklevoss

Analyst

Great. And just to add on to that, we've been building technology trading systems in marketplaces for well over a decade. So this is -- this is -- these are the kind of things that we know how to do very well. We have a website, we have a mobile app. We have API interfaces. And we've been doing market surveillance. We know how to onboard customers, KYC them and build great trading and marketplace experiences. So this is very much an extension of the over a decade of experience and expertise that we've developed over the years.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

The next question comes from John Todaro at Needham.

John Todaro

Analyst

How are you thinking about capital raising and liquidity if we assume crypto volumes remain lower than 2025 levels through 2026 and 2027?

Danijela Stojanovic

Analyst

Thanks for the question, John. So we really appreciate it. And we're planning the business with a conservative set of assumptions, which include a scenario where volumes remain below '25 levels through '26 and '27 as well. And from a liquidity standpoint, we've taken really meaningful steps to reduce our cost base and improve cash efficiency. And really, we're focused on scaling a more durable recurring revenue streams that are less dependent on trading volumes. So our main focus is to execute on our operating plan with that discipline in mind. But with that said, we're always evaluating opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet and support sustainable growth. And if there are opportunities for this on attractive terms, we would consider them. But we're, first and foremost, focused on demonstrating the operating improvements and letting the results really create the conditions for any future transaction or capital raise. But the key point is that we aim to build a model that can sustain itself across cycles and not one that depends on near-term recovery in volumes.

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

Yes. So look, as founders, we've been building Gemini for over a decade. We don't just have our skin in the game. We have our entire bodies in the game. We're deeply committed to Gemini and the mission and very excited to continue building it and as we expand the mission into the super app. And I think one of the things that we've talked about is that, that really helps us break free of the crypto cycles and give customers things that they can do throughout their daily financial lives, whether it's using a credit card or trading predictions. We're hoping to launch U.S. equities as well, investing in U.S. capital markets and really building out a more durable story of revenue and engagement that moves beyond simply buy, sell, store or say, crypto, which is obviously very core to the business, but we want to build on that and give our customers more reasons to use Gemini. And we're seeing the beginnings of that. And I think we're really excited to keep doing that. So even if crypto prices do remain depressed for some prolonged period of time, we will be building other products that continue to drive engagement and growth of our business.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

The next question comes from Pete Christiansen at Citi. What is Gemini's OpEx discipline going forward? And has management put in place guardrails that helps ensure eventual profitability at the EBITDA level?

Danijela Stojanovic

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Pete. So OpEx discipline is a core focus for us coming out of the restructuring. We've reset the business to a lower fixed cost base, and we put clear guardrails in place around any incremental spend. So that includes being very selective on headcount growth and tying it directly to revenue or strategic priorities and also continue to manage marketing as a variable lever really based on ROI and market conditions. And so that's a real lever that we can dial up or down depending on market conditions and requiring clear payback threshold for any new investments. And just as importantly, we've become much more focused as an organization, so prioritizing a smaller set of high-impact initiatives and exiting or scaling back areas that just didn't meet our return thresholds. And that really allows us to concentrate our resources and our capital where we have the strongest product market fit and demand. So we believe that the organization is now structured to drive really operating leverage as volumes and engagement recovers. And what's important to add is we don't need to meaningfully re-expand the cost base to achieve our growth target. A lot of the growth from here really comes from just better monetization of our existing user base and also just leveraging the infrastructure that we've already built. So I'd say the right way to think about this is we have a relatively stable OpEx base coming out of the restructuring with modest or highly targeted investments layered on top rather than us returning to a broad-based spending. And if 2025 was the year of investment, I'd say 2026 is really the year of focus and discipline.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

The final question comes from Dan Dolev at Mizuho. Given the regulatory and competitive landscape in crypto and prediction markets, what are the biggest external risks you're managing against in 2026? And what would you point to as your most underappreciated competitive advantage?

Cameron Winklevoss

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Dan. So I think one of the things that we want to talk about is the fact that, obviously, there's a lot of effort to pass a crypto market structure bill. And I think what is very encouraging to see is the SEC and the CFTC in parallel are doing great work to bring about the super app era independent of a bill. And so while we are hopeful that a good bill will ultimately get passed, there is a lot of great work going on at both agencies to create a path for super apps in the event that a bill does not pass for whatever reason. So we believe like the future for crypto in America has never been brighter. And I think that sort of there is a lot of great work being done that we're excited about. I think the second point that I'd like to make is that we are one of the, I think, the few end-to-end prediction marketplaces that also has a crypto marketplace within the same organization. And so we believe there's a lot of synergies for people who want to trade, for example, a Bitcoin event contract, but also be able to trade spot Bitcoin within the same place and hopefully eventually perpetual futures down the road in U.S. equities. And so I think that being an end-to-end marketplace for both predictions and spot as opposed to plugging into another marketplace, we believe that's an advantage for us going forward.

Ryan Todd

Analyst

At this time, there are no more questions. Thank you all for listening, and we'll talk to you soon.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.