Earnings Labs

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2013

$43.17

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Transcript

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us here for the December 2012 Results Presentation of Gold Fields. Also welcome to those who are following us on Cemig TV. A special word of welcome this morning for Ms. Cheryl Carolus, the newly minted Chair of Gold Fields as of yesterday. And also on the podium, we have Nick Holland, our Chief Executive Officer; and Paul Schmidt, our Chief Financial Officer. The process today is that Nick is going to give us a short presentation of about 30 slides, and after that, there will be an opportunity to ask questions both from the floor and for those who are watching us on the TV, you can send in your questions. Just from a safety point of view, in the unlikely event of something going wrong here, the emergency exits are along that wall behind the curtains. Please vacate the room in that direction to the north and congregate on the driveway right next to the fence. Now also ask you all to now switch off your cell phones or put it on silent. Once we're done with the presentation and the following Q&A, there will be a media conference behind us in the usual place, and there will also be refreshments served up there. I'm now going to hand it to Nick to take us through the presentation. Nick?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Thank you very much, Willie, and good morning, everyone. Before we start the presentation, I'm delighted to have Cheryl Carolus with us today, our newly appointed chair. And as you would've seen yesterday, Dr. Mamphela Ramphele has tendered her resignation with immediate effect. And we're delighted that Cheryl could step in and take over the chair. And at the same time, I'd also like to give praise and attribute to Dr. Ramphele for the excellent input she gave in the period that she was on our board and as our chair, and also the personal guidance that I received from her. We wish her well in her endeavors, and I'm sure that you'll understand that she is embarking on a different direction, and she will obviously have her own words to say on any due course. But for now, Cheryl has been on our board for some years. She knows the company extremely well, so I believe that this is a seamless transition that we have here, and I don't think we're going to miss a beat. At the end of the presentation, we'll take questions and if any of you want to ask Cheryl any questions in particular, she will be available to do that. We have to wrap up this whole thing by 11:00, so we'll see how much time we can dedicate to your questions. All right. So back to the results for the quarter and for the year ended December. And let me give you a brief overview. Attributable production for the quarter, just over 750,000 ounces, that's 7% down on the previous quarter or about 55,000 ounces. Now the dominant factor of the last quarter, and in fact, the last 2 quarters, was the illegal strike, which plagued the industry at large and, of course,…

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Thank you very much. We'll take questions now. May I ask you to please just state your name and the company that you're from when you stand up or -- sorry, when you get the microphone so that the people on the television calls will know who you are. Let's start with Brendan Ryan on the front row.

Brendan Ryan

Management

Brendan Ryan, [indiscernible] media. Could I ask you to elaborate on these comments of yours about the "long-awaited consolidation" of the Sibanye [ph]industry? And you're identifying Sibanye as a catalyst and something the company can drive this consolidation. What exactly do you think is going to happen? And how is Sibanye going to do it?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Well, I think, first of all, there hasn't really been a company of substance that could be a recipient for assets disposals in the past. And what you've done with Sibanye, you've actually created the largest producer in South Africa. And to the extent that other companies might be looking to rationalize their portfolios. I'll say to the extent, they may not be, but should they want to, there's a company here with currency that could well be an important contributor to helping them to change the shape of their companies. And I think that is overdue. There's certainly opportunities on the Westfords, as I've mentioned. There are mines that are contiguous, we're working together. We could more quickly exploit those ore bodies than working alone. And we've tried, I think, to drive some of that in the past, but without success. And in the Southern Free State, it's like a jigsaw puzzle. If you find all the missing pieces, all of a sudden you've got the picture. So I will leave you to figure out what that means. And maybe it leads to nothing, Brendan. But maybe, it creates something different. And that might be what's needed to save the gold industry because continuing along the path that we've been continuing along, you've seen the trend and the trend is your friend, or in this case, your enemy. We need to break that trend. And it may well be beneficial all around for employees, for the government, for the country, for communities and for the industry at large. But let's see what happens. I think we will see something, but I'll leave it up to your imagination as to what you think will transpire.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Can we go to Allan Cooke here please? And then Derryn Maade. Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: It's Allan Cooke from JPMorgan. Nick, South Deep is your most important asset now, well, more important in your lives than before. Could you perhaps indicate what your expectations are for costs and production and CapEx through to 2015 when you hit that 700,000 ounces of gold production per year? And then, perhaps also, just highlight what are the concerns or what are the key risks to that ramp-up, if you don't mind?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Yes. Look, at full production, if we hit that at the end of 2015, that'll mean that 2016 then will be 700,000 ounces. That's important because that's the run rate. There will obviously be a steep buildup as the de-stress gathers momentum. We need to get the de-stress up, probably another 40% or so this year compared to where we were. We did 75% last year. We've got 18 attack points into the ore body, 7 in the current mine, 11 in the future mine. That's 3x what we had 2.5 years ago. So it makes a big difference. We've got all of the equipment we now need. We've got the new working arrangements. So I think you'll see a steep ramp-up in 2014 and in 2015. But in essence, you're now sitting with 3,500 employees at South Deep. You're sitting with most of the overhead and infrastructure personnel that you need to run the shafts and all of the surface facilities. So we only need another 1,500 people in the trackless underground section of the mining, as well as the associated engineering and maintenance sections to hit full production. So you can figure out that the leverage from here on out is significant. And I would expect at full production that South Deep is going to be looking at all-in costs, including sustaining capital, of somewhere between $900 and $1,000 per ounce in today's money, which would mean that they'll make substantial cash generation. The biggest risk to the buildup is the de-stress. If we can continue the significant momentum that we've made in 2012, we'll get there. We're pretty close; I don't think we'll be far away. But it's going to be important to have another very good year on de-stress. With the new operating model, however, I think we've significantly improved the potential to achieve exactly that.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Could we get a microphone across to Derryn, please?

Derryn Maade - Renaissance Capital, Research Division

Management

Just wanted to ask you about what you feel is your kind of level of capital project spend that you can sustain now that the company has obviously been transformed, with the 2 million-ounce base and you maintained your dividend policy of the 25% to 35%. I mean, potentially, with the pipeline that you've got, those 2 could be at odds. Could you just give us a sense for what you feel the company can maintain in terms of projects spend?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

I'm going to ask our CFO to take this one.

Paul A. Schmidt

Management

I think for the next 2 years, we don't see a big uptick in the capital spend, as we have no approved projects coming down the line as such. We're still busy with pre-feasibility and some of the work. Time will tell in 2 years as to what those projects will cost and how we're going fund them, whether we're going to use more of the balance sheet, et cetera. But we're still committed to our sticking to our dividend policy, but we're watching this closely. But for the next 2 years, we've got a bit of headroom because there will be no physical construction of projects.

Derryn Maade - Renaissance Capital, Research Division

Management

Maybe just as a follow-up, on the brownfields project expansions at Tarkwa and Cerro Corona, the north expansions in particular, you seem to be a little less upbeat this time around as compared to the last results presentation where it seems almost a sure thing that we were going to get -- you were going to go ahead with that. Do you have any comments on -- in terms of when are we likely to see a decision in terms of actually going ahead with the brownfields projects?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Yes, we -- it's not that we're less upbeat. I think we're in the middle of a process of really getting resolution around the numbers. And the fact that we've conducted this portfolio review and the fact that we're introducing a lot more rigor into our investment decisions, we're setting the bar higher for ourselves. But all of these opportunities, I think, really represent value for the company. I think in Tarkwa, we have to look at what is the optimal size and configuration of additional processing capacity. That's, I think, the key decision. Because otherwise, you potentially end up chasing tons again and not necessarily improving the overall margin. So we've got to make sure that in the lights of the new philosophy that we're talking to you about today that we make sure that our decisions reflect that philosophy. That's all it is. But I think these projects have all got a reasonable chance to go in the short to medium term. We'll update you further in the year.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Can we come -- sorry?

Derryn Maade - Renaissance Capital, Research Division

Management

Sorry, can I have one final.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

One more.

Derryn Maade - Renaissance Capital, Research Division

Management

Just to Ms. Carolus, if you could maybe give us a few minutes of just outlining your vision for the new Gold Fields as you see it?

Cheryl Ann Carolus

Management

I must -- it's on, it's on. Thanks. It's all still a bit fresh and new at some levels, sitting as the chair. But having been on the board since 2009, it's been quite exciting to see how it's evolved. And I must say, again, under the next leadership, just the kind of vision around the safety issues, I think that's been a huge achievement. And then I think the whole restructure with Sibanye. I think it's quite an exciting leadership that's been provided in the gold industry. And so I am not going to spend a few minutes as you had asked me to. I can just say that I think from a board perspective and certainly just a short 4 years that I've been with the company, I think it's been interesting to see how we've managed to stay the course at some levels and that, I believe, has not been scared to innovative. And the most exciting thing is the question of cash and understanding what shareholders want and being able to do that. But at the same time, having a fairly proactive stance about seeking out new opportunities. I think the South Fareast [ph] would be one example, but with the necessary caution, and then the approach to Cerro Corona. So I think that it's a very steady trajectory that the company has been on. We haven't compromised safety. I think that has been something that we cannot underestimate. And then just the focus on cash, I think, is absolutely the right way. And I think we've listened to shareholders over the years on that. And I think we've got the formula right. So I don't think we're going to be doing anything wildly mad, but I think there's enough innovation in the pipeline. And the Sibanye transaction has proven that there's a boldness in the company and a confidence that I feel that I like, that I'm very excited to be part of in the next years.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Thank you. Can we come to the front here? Thank you, go ahead.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

It's Adrian Hammond from BNP Cadiz. I have 2 questions. Firstly, you mentioned a couple of production cutbacks. How will you address the fixed cost overheads in order to reduce the unit costs that you say you will?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

We've already done quite a lot of restructuring in the regions. We knew that this was coming, and over the last quarter, in particular, we've restructured a lot of the regions. We've put back resources at the mines where necessary. We looked at the corporate footprint that we have here in South Africa. We've cut back the capital spend. Now the capital spend that we were going to spend last year, initially, and what we ended up spending was substantially down. What we're going to spend this year is going to be significantly less. And as Paul has indicated, we're going to operate within our means. I think once the dust settles and we get a better handle on what the new Gold Fields looks like, we're going to have to hard look again at what we really want to be. And not forget why we're here. We're here to drive value and some of the nice-to-haves, we're going to have to think carefully about. But as our chair has said -- and I'm glad she mentioned it, we won't compromise on safety, health, environmental stewardship or community engagement. And in fact, we're embracing the concept of shared value across the world as a means of making sure that mining becomes relevant for those people who see the headgear turning and not just an interesting spectacle when I wake up in the morning.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

And my second question is, obviously, with Sibanye unbundling the earnings base, takes a bit of a knock. Have you considered revising the dividend policy to restore dividend yields?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Yes, but we're still going to pay out 25% to 35% of our dividends -- of our earnings, rather. And that's just off a lower base. So we'll operate within the same policy. Paul has had a good look at it and -- maybe you want to comment on your comfort on that, Paul?

Paul A. Schmidt

Management

No. I mean, I think we're comfortable, obviously, sticking to the policy. The share prices you've seen has really moved down corresponding to what we've given up, and we'll stick to it. The reason we went with the 25% now is understanding that we are paying -- the Gold Fields leadership [ph]is paying the full final dividend, but we are reporting a lot of Sibanye's earnings in it. That's why we didn't go to the higher end of the spectrum for this final dividend, because I'm paying some of the earnings this quarter.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Okay, could we get them microphone to the back there, please? Put up your hand. Thank you. Oh, you've got one. Okay, go ahead.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

It's Andrew Byrne from Barclays Absa Capital. I had a couple of quick questions. First of all, you outlined the cut you're making on exploration. Were you're looking to take out the corporate cost base kind of year-on-year with the unbundling of Sibanye? Question #1. Secondly, on Tarkwa and Damang, the decisions around expanding those assets or optimizing them as you suggest. Are they dependent still on revisions to the tax or realty regimes in the country as you've discussed in the past? And finally, the question is just on debt levels and gearing. You're 0.6, 0.7x net debt EBITDA at the moment. Do you feel that as being the optimal level that you are looking to maintain through the cycle? And should we expect any more debt issuances over the next year as you see it in your plans at the moment?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Okay. Paul will deal with the last question. I'll deal with the first 2.

Paul A. Schmidt

Management

You want me to do the debt first?

Nicholas John Holland

Management

Yes.

Paul A. Schmidt

Management

In terms of the net debt to EBITDA, we've always said the level of around 1, long term is our comfort level. In terms of issuing more debt, obviously, we like to have long-term debt as opposed to short-term debt. We just restructured; we've just finalized a 5-year and a 3-year term in RCF, post the bridge that we will give them for the whole Sibanye deal. We was looking at the markets if we want to expand in the bond market going to tenure; it just depends on what the markets are. But we're quite comfortable with the debt levels at the moment. And as Nick said early on, we've got it in the right debt maturity categories at the moment. It's all effectively long-term for the new company.

Nicholas John Holland

Operator

I think in terms of your first question on all of the overhead and corporate structures, the Sibanye transaction allowed us to transfer a number of people from the corporate to Sibanye. So I think that's helped us to share the resources between the 2 companies, and that'll help us to have a right-sized corporate. And I must say where I sit today, I think it's one of the most efficient smaller corporate structures you'll see in the gold industry. So I think we're done on that as we see things today. On the Tarkwa and Damang expansions, clearly, there has been some changes in the fiscal regime in Ghana. And we continue to engage with government on how best we can take forward the gold industry in Ghana for the benefit of all stakeholders. And that is obviously something that is an ongoing debate, and I can't give you, Andrew, a timeframe of when and where we might get to. But certainly, it's not an irrelevant issue. You've got to look at this in the context of the entire project. And I'm pretty hopeful that we're going to come to a situation where we get a win-win deal for everyone. More tax into the coffers for the fiscals, more jobs potentially in the mining industry in Ghana and more benefits for our investors. That's what we're looking for, is that everyone benefits. So let's see how we go.

Jan Willie Jacobsz

Management

Good. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We've run out of time. If any of you still have questions that we have not answered, please call or email to us, and we'll endeavor to get back to you by the end of the day today. Please join us for some refreshments in the room behind you. And could we ask the media to please move straight through to the media interview room where we normally go. Thank you very much for joining us today.