Earnings Labs

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 16, 2018

$41.50

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Transcript

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Gold Fields' results for the six months ended 30th June 2018. Just before we start, the exits are at the front and the back. And if it's an emergency, you assemble outside the building. I'll hand over to Nick the presentation and we'll do questions and answers after that. Thank you, Nick.

Nicholas Holland

Management

Thank you very much, Avishkar. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking the time to join us today to talk through these results for the first half of 2018. I think first of all, although a lot of the news this week has been focused on South Deep, we shouldn't forget that, of course, there are a number of other operations in the group that are doing quite well actually, certainly, we believe so. Strong performance from the international ops. They have made $190 million after taxes and all capital from the project. CapEx. So pretty good performance there. They are on track to achieve their guidance for the year in terms of production. And look like they should as well achieve their cost guidance. Damang, in particular, is tracking well. I'll talk a little bit about that later. That's ahead of plan. Gruyere remains on track for first gold in quarter 2 next year. That's what we said previously. We're still on track. CapEx is a little bit higher than what we said before. It's about 18% up from what we thought it would be. And we're roughly just over halfway through that spend with physical progress about 60% overall, so tracking reasonably well. South Deep restructuring and the impairment we announced on Tuesday, I'll talk about that again a little bit later on. Balance sheet's good. The Asanko transaction we completed on the 31st of July so we now earn a 45% interest in the Ghanaian operation of Asanko. I've got some slides on that too. In line with our policy, a dividend of $0.20 per share, which represents around about 1/3 of our normalized earnings. So here is some of the headline numbers. Production, this is from continuing operations because, essentially, Darlot was in the numbers for last…

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

Okay, we'll take questions from the audience first and then we'll go to the line.

Q - Brendan Ryan

Management

It's Brendan Ryan from Miningmx. Nick, you stressed the importance of getting into the North of Wrench area and that's where the future of the mine lies, at South Deep. And you previously indicated that was going to take some 3 years before you knew what you had there. Does that mean that irrespective of what happens at South Deep from your restructuring, and you're not giving us any targets, irrespective of what happens from your restructuring, are you going to keep this mine going for the next 3 years until you've got into and can assess North of Wrench?

Nicholas Holland

Management

I think the first and most important objective, Brendan, is to improve what we're doing at the moment. And if we're going to be flatlining at the production rates that we are now, we've got to rightsize the cost space to that. If we do that, I think, we can buy ourselves time. We've spent a lot of capital in opening up the North of Wrench. We do know what's there. But it's a question of getting to it. And the thing that's worrying us here is, although we see a future there, we can't afford to be burning the amount of cash that we're currently burning, while we wait to get there. And that's why we've taken the steps that we are taking now. I still believe in the future of South Deep because if we didn't, we wouldn't have selected this option. The team believes in it. And they want to give this a go. But we recognize, like you, there's been many missed forecasts and targets. And we're conscious of that too. So we need to make sure that's this is something that has got a better chance of working. Certainly carrying on as we are and losing ZAR3 million a day is not a good option for us. But this buys us time to get into what we hope will be the promised land.

Brendan Ryan

Management

You say losing ZAR3 million a day isn't an option for you. What would be an acceptable rate of loss while you strive towards this future?

Nicholas Holland

Management

I'll leave that to my financial manager - officer over here to answer.

Paul Schmidt

Management

Good enough. I think we have got to work through the next six months. We've got to get through the restructuring if that does happen. And the short-term goal is to trying to get the mine back to all-in costs of ZAR525,000 a kilogram, which basically implies it's almost cash neutral. But a lot of work is going to be done over the next six months. We have said we will come back to you in the new year with probably the forecast for 2019. That's about it at the moment. We just need to do what we need to do with the restructuring and everything and reset the mine.

Nicholas Holland

Management

Can I also just ask, Martin Preece is here who has been working day and night to get us to this plan and working day and night to try and buy us a future. So maybe we could just give him 2 minutes to get his perspective on how we build our future. I don't know would he need a microphone.

Martin Preece

Management

Thanks, a lot. I think Paul and Nick have summarized that we've got to I think move then take a step change to move out of this conventional mindset into mechanized mindset. And We've got a good team on board. And I think Nick, sort of, touched on it lightly, I think that he is committed and believes that they want to go the course to lend this. The one thing that's really important, I think is, it's more an engineering endeavor than it is a mining endeavor. And what's really pleasing is we've got a really strong mining guy in a - strong engineers been around a while. And we've parked them in offices next to each other, with a hole we put a door between the offices and more and seasoned, the coach will enter the hype. And I think that's the - that's all in the necessary supporting thing. A lot of effort is going to go into how do we structure our teams and build on some of the works some of the other mining companies have done to drive that frontline productivity and get frontline people to take ownership and own their outcomes. That it's not a one-man decision, plus it's people at the own - at the front end or driving their own destiny.

Brendan Ryan

Management

Nick, one last question, then I'll shut up, in South Deep. Given the history of the mine, you can understand there is a tremendous amount of negative and cynic viewpoints on South Deep. So what is it going to take for you to say, okay, guys, this isn't going to work, we've had enough, we're going to sell it or shut it down. What has to happen before you say we can't make this work and we're out of here?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Yes, I think certainly, let's assume we get through this restructuring, and I think this restructuring is not going to be easy. But let's assume we could fast-forward and we're sitting here in February. We need to know that we've got a credible plan that we can meet. And then we're starting to see that on a week by week basis or month by month basis, we meet whatever we say we're going to do. So that #1, the team on the ground on the mountain can build up their own confidence. And two, that we can. I think the thing that would cause Paul and I to lose more confidence is if we continue to miss targets. I think whatever we set out for ourselves, post all of us this, we've got to hit. And we've got to build some momentum. I think you want to add to that?

Brendan Ryan

Management

So the next six months are critical?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Yes, critical.

Yatish Chowthee

Management

This is Yatish from Macquarie. Just to ask back on your South Deep progress. In terms of assuming the worst case scenario that your production is significantly hampered going in the second half on this restructuring. What levers do you have on your other assets to actually make up your annual guidance between 2.08 million and 2.1 million ounces?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Yes. Look, the one thing we don't like to do is push people out of a long-term plan. And all of our mines have a long-term plan and special compliance is important. And if you get out of your special compliance and your over mine in nice high-grade area, you're going to pay the price next year. So I think we've got to make sure that the international mines keep doing what we're doing because we also want to make sure that 2019 is a good year and 2020 is a good year. But I think what we'll do instead is we're curtailing some of the capital expenditures as you've seen on South Deep. We can curtail stay in business and grow the capital. We will see some impact on the operating costs. But let me just say, we are not saying that people missed out on tools today and sit on the ground for next 2, 3 months waiting for this to happen. People have got a responsibility to work. I mean, they're being paid a very good wage to work. So we would expect all of our teams from our managers all the way down to the phase. Our expectation is for people to keep working to make sure they don't create an even worse future for themselves. But assuming the worst case, and you're an analyst so you have to assume the worst case. It might be that our production is going to be a lot less in the second half than what it was in the first half if things don't go well. And the first half wasn't great either. That would mean the cash losses could increase. And unfortunately, we are making good money on the international operations. We've got a strong balance sheet. And Paul, I think is comfortable with our overall financial position. But I think we've got to run those assets optimally. And we've got to do the best thing we can do here.

Yatish Chowthee

Management

Then just to follow up on - in terms of where, assume again, looking at where the gold price is today, and looking at your funding requirements at your other assets. Is there a concern that - again, with South Deep of the table, you're going to run into a bit of a balance sheet constraint going in towards year-end?

Nicholas Holland

Management

You could answer?

Paul Schmidt

Management

We are basically hedged. That's fairly much most of our production that the international operations for the balance of the year. Australia is hedged 100% of the balance for the production, with a flow of AUD 1,700. Ghana, we've hedged circa 80% at a flow of GHS 1,300 of our production. Peru, the copper is fully hedged for the balance of the year. And we've got a small hedge in South Africa, even for South Deep with a flow of ZAR600,000 in a kilogram. So for the balance of the year the gold prices will be good for us because of our hedges.

Bruce Williamson

Management

Nick, I'm Bruce Williamson, Integral Asset Management. Nick, just looking or listening to what the guys have said, talking about structured team operating like others, which I mean, I'm assuming other trackless mining operations, people taking responsibility. If you look what the mine's been through over a long, long, long period, I mean your psychometric testing of your work force, are you guys sure that you actually have a workforce that is correct for what you're asking them to do?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Yes. That's one of the issues we've looked at in some detail. There are gaps. And I think for us to say that we've got a fully fit for-purpose workforce in terms of world-class mechanized bulk mining, no, we don't. We've got work to do. And training is a key part of our program. We are training a lot of people in the classroom and the training facilities are giving some good results. But our ability to translate that into the workplace is somewhat absent. So that's another part of the exercise we're doing here. And again, I think, I'd like for Martin to add a bit more color to the answer because he has been working in detail on this for many, many weeks and months.

Martin Preece

Management

Thanks, Nick. I think that is a big area of focus. There's a big exercise that was conducted before I joined, getting the managerial level's psychometrics done. Because I think it goes across the board. We're reaching agreement on doing psychometrics on entry-level positions as well. And, I think, it is critical. I think it goes beyond psychometrics. One of the key things with operators is a test called a Dover test, which we likes to - ability to almost operate in a 3D-special environment. So we're moving into that space. And Nick did make the point around classroom training and actually transitioning that into the can-do attitude, at the first that's taking the theory in to the practical. We've done a lot of work of being through with our head of HR. We brought in independent people to look at our training processes. They're comfortable, offset within, the process is good, the material and content is good. We're getting - we're seeing marked improvement in skills acquisition work. We've got to drive now skills application.

Bruce Williamson

Management

Certainly, I would identify that as probably your most critical things to get right?

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

We pause the conference call to see if there are questions.

Nicholas Holland

Management

Are there any questions on the conference call?

Operator

Operator

We have a question from James Will of RBS Capital Markets [ph].

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just on the international portfolio. Firstly on Ghana, are you able to comment on some of the press reports that the government are unhappy or looking to shake up the mining royalty and tax regime? And secondly on Australia, some of the domestic producers who've seen report have talked about inflation and sort of labor shortages and contractor issues, et cetera, coming in - back into the industry? I mean is that something you think could have an impact on your cost base looking in to next year? And on a hedging side in Australia, is that something you're going to continue to do next year and going forward?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Yes. Just dealing first with the second part, James, on Australia. We are starting to see an increase in turnover rates of critical skills as mining starts to recover in Australia. It's something we watch quite carefully. So I do think there is going to be a big play on skills. As projects come through. We've seen this before. When you often find the worst for world is when iron or nickel are going up and gold is going down. We still got to pay the same wages that they offer, and it puts us under tremendous pressure, and I've lived through that in this company before. So that is a real risk. We had very benign inflation in Australia for a while, but it's changing. Had we started the Gruyere project today, I'm pretty confident that the total cost of that project, if we started today, would be a lot more than when we have started. So we're catching the back end of that cost inflation. But certainly that's a risk for us and we've got to watch for that. Just in terms of Ghana, obviously, there are some fiscal pressures in the country. But remember, we do have a development agreement. The pegs are royalties and our taxes for life of mine. So we are protected there. But obviously, we watch carefully developments as it unfolds in the country. But for now, I think, we're okay. And then on hedging, look, we have taken some opportunistic currency hedging into next year already, and you'll see it's in the book in Australia. Just to make sure that if - the thing that would worry us greatly in Australia is if the Aussie dollar came back to parity with the U.S. dollar. And since we've operated in Australia from 2001, I have seen the Aussie dollar as lows as $0.45 and has high as $1.25. So that's a hell of a wide range for the Aussie dollar against the U.S. dollar. So it can be volatile. So that's just the one area we just want to protect ourselves. We're nibbling away there. We'll see how that goes in the future. But it seems to me it's going the other way in the markets. Because the U.S. dollar is something of a safe haven at the moment. People are piling their money there in the midst of all this trade wars and so on. So maybe we're going to be proven wrong and the U.S. dollar continues to be strong, time will tell.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Johann Steyn from Citigroup.

Johann Steyn

Management

Nick, just regarding the whole thing about skills at South Deep. I do find it somewhat puzzling, given everything that you guys have done there. And in a sense, I think that South Africans would have found it a little bit insulting. So it either does point to something like you're just not getting the skills, which ultimately should come back to management because it's management's responsibility to fix that. Or it's a convenient way of hiding behind something much more fundamental like this mine is just taking - keep challenging to mine and it'd be a convenient excuse, so which one is it?

Nicholas Holland

Management

Okay, so here is how I would look at that. You've mentioned this before to me, so - I think it was you. So I'll revert back to what you said before. Is that one of the things that concern you is the multiple management changes at South Deep over the years. And one of the issues there is when there's a change in leadership, there is a style of working that comes in and other people come in, teams are built up. And then you get changes in management and often you find that the mine changes. And I've seen that in the other mines that we use to earn that now became [indiscernible] is a - mine might be doing well then the mine manager changes then it can come down a bit and then you've got to resuscitate it. Similar issue here. So I think the mine manger changes and leadership changes have not helped. On this kind of operation, we need to get stability on the leadership. And sure, I mean, you could point fingers at us as the leadership with Gold Fields that hasn't happened because that's our job is to get stable leadership in. But I think, though, without the stable leadership, it's been quite difficult to embed the appropriate mechanized mining practices and culture that we need, particularly, when there are so much changes. And if we can get a period of stability, I'm pretty sure that we can improve on that. So in terms of, is it just too difficult to mine, I had the same thought in my mind some years ago. And what we did is we brought in a team of professors, who are professors in geotechnical affairs and rock mechanics, to come and work with us. There is…

Martin Preece

Management

Thanks, Nick. I think that's the question that plagues us all in. I've said to the team on a teleconference, I think, yesterday morning. We asked ourselves the question again. And I think there's broad consensus with the team that focusing on the right things, this is doable, and this is why we taking the pain we're taking now. It's a long hard slog. The - I think Nicholas touched on the integration, and I think it's the integration in the planning. It's the integration in the execution and I think that has been lacking. You started taking the steps to address that integration at a planning's phase. We brought in external people to come and sit and help us build a plan together. And in terms of organization and the restructuring we took earlier in the year, was also aimed at trying to get single points of accountability. which would drive that integration at the front end.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from [indiscernible] of Value Capital.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Nick, I think from the [indiscernible] how this conference call is growing. It seems like you passing back to Martin, Martin passes back the [indiscernible] to you and it's all gibberish and garbage that you guys [indiscernible] exceeding everybody else. Last time, when I spoke to you on the phone, you were arrogant when I pointed out to you that this mine has sucked up some ZAR50-plus billion of shareholder lands. That is you are dismissive of it, you didn't take accountability for it. And neither did you subsequently [indiscernible] release some kind of a technical view - overview of exactly what's been [indiscernible] South Deep. Now the question I want to put to you, out of the $20-odd million [indiscernible] share compensation that is a challenge that you can't see, how much of it is yours, of that $20 million, how much that it relates to you? That's the first question. Secondly, are you and the team able to release the actual expert reports that you guys keep referring to so that everybody else can actually read that and make a view about what's happening at South Deep. So those are my two set of questions that are await for your response.

Nicholas Holland

Management

I think on the second question will take that under advisement. But we hear what you're seeing in terms of transparency. And thanks for the suggestion of being transparent and even more transparent on some of the stuff you're referring to. So we'll take that under advisement. The first question, I didn't quite understand. Could you maybe just repeat that first question?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Of the $20 million in share compensation for the half of first year - half year, FY '18, how much of that $20 million relates to your compensation?

Paul Schmidt

Management

I will talk to it. Steadies for the whole group that's for six months, Nick see a fraction of that number. That's for the whole group. It covers all the regions, corporate offices, the 4 corporate entities. It's a minute portion of that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Now, what is minute? How much? I mean minute is a figure, number. That's why you can put $20 million on the income statement.

Paul Schmidt

Management

It's a calculation that's done on an overall basis, not on the individual basis. When this pays out, you'll see what he gets. At the moment it's a globular calculation done for the whole group. And it's a valuation methodology it's not done on the individual person at the moment. It's done for the group based on the metrics that has been set in the share scheme. When it matures, and that matures each year in February. You will see what each person gets. And Nick's will be disclosed then. At the moment I cannot tell you what it is, but I know it's - there's lots of people in that scheme and there's no person that accounts for a huge portion of it.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions on the lines.

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

One for you here Paul. Could you quantum and terms of the debt that matures in 2019? And what's the plans for the maturity?

Paul Schmidt

Management

That's $380 million term loan that expires. We'll consider our options as to how to refinance it in the year coming up. That's it, it's $380 million that expires.

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

What is the cost of the debt, interest rate?

Paul Schmidt

Management

The cost of that debt at the moment is probably about 3.75% if you take it - about 2.4%, 2.5% above LIBOR.

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

Brendan?

Brendan Ryan

Management

Nick, Brendan Ryan, again mining your mix. You mentioned in your report that the Ghanaian government wants to enforce its rights to buy 30% - up to 30% of your gold directly. Can you elaborate on that please? What's in it for them? And are they going to try and force you to sell at a discount?

Paul Schmidt

Management

I'll answer it. We've just - it was a letter that was sent to the chamber. That's when we see, it was literally a one-page letter, we replied yesterday as a chamber. We need explanation. There was no information on how, if, by - how we're going to be paid, when we are going to be paid, what's it going to be based on, U.S. dollar series we have no idea. We are waiting now for explanations on the government as to how they would want to implement it. But we thought it was prudent that we notified our shareholders and said we have received this as an industry and Gold Fields' being one of the members. We've received this letter and we put it up. We don't understand the implications of it because we have no more information.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

But it could be negative depending...

Paul Schmidt

Management

We don't know. Could be, we really don't know until we see the terms as to what that proposed to do.

Avishkar Nagaser

Management

Okay. Are there questions here there? On the call is there anything else? No. Well thank you very much. We'll see you again in six months' time.