Earnings Labs

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 13, 2020

$41.86

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Transcript

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Can we get started please. Good morning again and welcome to Gold Fields' Results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2019. Before we start just for safety reasons if you need to exit the room there's an exit at the front or the back and the master point is out at the front of the building. So I will hand over to Nick Holland who will take us through the results and then we'll do a Q&A session afterwards. Nick?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Thank you very much and good morning to everybody. Welcome also to those that are in tune on the webinar system and I'm sure we'll give you an opportunity to ask questions later. We thought we'd start with this slide in our renewables and ESG issues are, obviously, more involved than ever before. And what you're seeing over here is one of the first wind turbines that we put up at Agnew, a mine where we're going to have average renewable input into our energy usage of about 57%, so that's been taken by a drone. And good to see we've got the Gold Fields logo on there in the middle of the outback at 1,100 kilometers from Perth. But that shows you an indication of our seriousness to actually have an impact on climate change. And you know what? It's a good business. It actually will be cheaper in the long run to power more of our mines with renewables than it will be with conventional energy sources. It has been an eventful period for Gold Fields. And as recently as last night, we've been pretty busy as some of you by now will know. We've been working very hard on getting the Salares Norte project to a decision point with our Board. One of the key lead items behind that was to get the environmental impact assessment approved. That is ordinarily about a two-year process. We were very fortunate that we got that ahead of time, a week before Christmas, I got the good news from the team in Chile that we've secured that approval and we thought we should move forward as quickly as we can now. We'd always slated to start the project in 2020, but probably press the button a bit later than what we're…

R300 million

Analyst

And when you mine this operation with the right volume you mine, especially, correctly you get the grade. You can rely on the fact this is a 5.5 -- maybe 5.75 gram per tonne ore body over the next five years, but long-life. Let's not forget the reserve grade is 5.5. So the key here is let's get the volume? How do we get the volume? Let's get stoping. Stoping is where you get the volume. That means you've got to destress you've got to develop you open up the cuts and you get in there and you start stoping into these big cavities. And we're getting much better at mining these big cavities. Our resolution between compliance to plan and the plan is improving significantly. We were just talking the other day some of the stopes now getting very close to 100%. That was unheard of a couple of years ago. We've got some hedges in place which will underwrite this year as well. So at the guidance of about 8 tonnes for 2020, we got a R700,000 hedge price on 75% of the production. Cost of R625,000 a kilo. So we sort of arbitraged if you want to put it that way R75,000 a kilogram on 75% of the production. So I think we're going to be making money here in 2020. You could remind me about that promise at the end of the year. All right. So that's it. I mean these are all indications. And we talk about gold and costs these are things that happen behind it. So there are some of the benefits stoping tonnes per rig and we've actually improved as well. Secondary support, destress development. If you get all these things right and you get them in the right areas the gold…

A - Avishkar Nagaser

Analyst

Okay. So we start in the room first. Shilan? Just wait for the mic please.

Shilan Modi

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Shilan Modi from UBS. Congrats on a strong set of results for FY 2019. Just a couple of questions from my side. Just maybe explain the rationale for the book build last night plus paying a dividend of the two combined. I know it's related to Salares Norte. So next is can you maybe talk to the risks at Salares Norte specifically related to water and labor? And then with South Deep you had to put very strong turnaround last year. Maybe talk to the process that you entered to get there? And maybe talk to us about why it's different this time. There's been a lot of rebased plans for South Deep. What gives us confidence that this is the new performance metrics for South Deep?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Okay. You've asked us about four questions there. So Paul we'll have a crack at the first one?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

Yes. I think, I -- as I said earlier on we're in the room up upstairs. I think the dividend and the capital raise are two separate issues. The dividend is based on the results for the year. We on our policy of 25% to 35% of normalized earnings. We've done that. We've paid a one way dividend. Capital raise was to part fund the Salares Norte project. It's about one-third of the project. As I said it's -- we deemed it prudent to lock some of the funding away ahead of the big spend. The big spend comes in 2021. And it was a good time to go in to capitalize on the announcement. And obviously our share price was strong as well. We believe we can fund the project from cash resources. Worst-case scenario we'd have to dip into our debt. But at current forecast we'll fund it out of cash from the operating month.

Nick Holland

Analyst

In terms of risks on Salares water. One of the things that was very critical for us is to get the water rights early. Because no water in the Atacama region no project. And unless you're going to bring water up from the coast which is extremely expensive and treated you need to get local water. So luckily we got local water. That happened some years ago and we had that separately permitted. And it took us a long time to get it permitted. We had to do a full catchment study but we've got it permitted. So we've got more than enough water. We got about 3 times of what we need. And only then will be prepared to start the feasibility study on the project. Obviously, the risks are the altitude, the risks are inclement weather, the risks are fabricating stuff off-site, bringing it in, obviously, derating people's performance at 4,700 meters, derating equipment, costs can change. But there are some cushions. We've got five months of contingency in it. We've also got some cost contingency in as well. The peso is a little bit weaker than what we're using in our studies. So there's a bit of cushion there as well. And bear in mind, the fact that we've engineered to this point, about 60%, it puts us in a very strong position. That figure will be 100% by the year-end. What we're learning is the more front-end engineering design you do, the less the risk of a blowout down the road. Our Project Director has got a proud history of building mines and never over run it. I don't think he's going to blot his coffee book at this stage.

Shilan Modi

Analyst

Just on South Deep. A – Nick Holland: South Deep, sorry. So on South Deep, what's different? Look, the restructuring was a pivotal moment for us. We've never gone through a massive restructuring in South Deep. We've tried to sort of reengineer things. But, as you know, we retrenched 1,500 people. We took out a-third of the equipment. We shut down probably about a-third of the footprint in the lower grade areas that required a huge amount of effort for questionable results. We stopped the new mine development and we could afford to do it, because we were ahead. And we took all of the focus back to what are we doing today? Let's improve we're doing today and every day and not get ahead of ourselves. And make sure that behavioral interventions are in place and there's a lot of good work that's gone on. And the one thing I've learned from this is, there's actually a lot of good people at South Deep and always has been. It's just, we need to enable them to perform and facilitate them to perform. And I think that's what we're doing now. That's what the management on the mine is doing. There's no rocket science here. This is just doing the right stuff. Every day and doing it safely. So that's what the team is trying to embed, because we've just said, we don't want to get a great year in 2019 and then we fall over again in 2020 or else it's not worth it. We've got to build on this and we've got to consolidate this. And so, that's the challenge for the team. I think they're upfront. And I think they'll surprise us again at the end of 2020. Thank you.

Shilan Modi

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Indiscernible] You just talked about redeploying 1,500 workers. What sort of grade levels are these people at? And are you seeing that they are redeployed in productive operations. And another question, again, similar to that. We talk about the rain drain in South Africa. Is this making it more difficult to access quality mining staff? A – Nick Holland: I'll start with the second part first. There's no doubt that we need to be cognizant of potential skills shortages in South Africa, particularly as mining elsewhere in Africa is picking up. And often we can be an area for companies further north to try and attract skills. So that is a concern to us. So that's a specific HR intervention that we've got at the mine, to retain our skills, attract our skills as well. In terms of the 1,500 people in, regrettably they were made redundant. We did offer them the potential to learn additional skills. We call it portable skills training, which some of them took up and it was a vertical slice. Now this was -- we actually started with the senior people. And normally these exercises, they start with the bottom people and they leave all the senior people in place. We started with the senior people and then worked our way down. We obviously try to limit the losses to as little as we could. And look, certainly, there could have been an argument for more, but we try to do the minimum we could do, because we're cognizant of putting people on the street is not an easy thing, but we have to also protect the other 3,500 or 2,500 jobs now that we have on the mine. So, regrettably, that's what happened.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. If I may just ask in addition to that, are you finding any government intervention, trying strategically or not to put pressure on you not to carry on with this program? A – Nick Holland: I have a lot of pressure. Yes, I mean, there was a lot of pressure from the Department of Minerals. And we explained our position numerous times and we've stuck to our position. So, clearly, the government doesn't want to see industry retrench people. But, I think, as you know, I mean, in the mining industry in this country, there has been a lot of retrenchments. There's going to be a whole bunch more and we're one of the few mines that have growth profile as opposed to a declining profile. So I do think we could be a shining beacon and in otherwise fairly bleak outlook. Now the rand gold price is great, but our experience in this industry is, it often provides a respite for a period and then you're back to pressure. That's why we have to improve the productivity, improve the cost base and be resilient to cost increases, particularly from the likes of Eskom and other cost inputs like labor.

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

And just for clarity, this actually happened in December 2018 already. So it's over a year ago, we completed the whole restructure. You seem to be thinking we're going to do it. Now, this was completed over a year ago.

Nick Holland

Analyst

Thank you.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you very much and congratulations on the extraordinary year.

Nick Holland

Analyst

Thank you so much.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. We've got a whole bunch of questions from the webcast. So I'm just going to ask them one at a time. And Paul all of them are for you. So are you guys still planning to bring your leverage down to one times even after pursuing the Salares Norte project?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

Correct, yeah.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Will you need additional debt to fund the Chile project?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

No. I mean, we've – as Nick mentioned earlier, we redid the bond this year. We did 5 and a 10-year bond of $1 billion in total. We renewed our bank facilities. We've got a 600 three plus one plus one a 600 five plus one plus one. I'm talking $600 million facilities. So in total we've got $1.2 billion of bank facilities that are undrawn at the present. And current forecast, we don't even need to grow into our current facilities never mind requiring additional facilities. The way we see it with the capital raise, we will fund Salares Norte out of current cash flows from mining operations.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Can the Chile CapEx be delayed if gold prices decreased significantly, or will the company be happy to increase its leverage?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Yeah. So we can always delay a project, but there is two sides of every coin. Now, if we delay the project, we obviously have to keep the team intact. So there's a natural burn rate of the project. We've also got firm tenders on various pieces of equipment, we need to buy. We've got a firm tender on a mining contract. These things go stale, and often have to be then renegotiated and there could be extra cost in that. And our point of view is we can't see a reason why we need to delay the project. We're in a very good position. Let's get this project built as soon as we can. The value is there. When we start generating revenue, we'll look back and say, thank goodness we went ahead when we did. So it costs more money. You can lose key skills as well. You delay a project people can be redeployed from the EPCM contractor. We could lose key skills in the project team. There's a lot of downside issues. And now let's remember the gold price is doing well. Let's make, hay while the sun shines.

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

It's also – it's the main reason – one of the main reasons, we did for capital raise was to de-risk the project in case of lower gold prices coming down the line.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. What is the hedging plan for 2020 and 2021?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

In 2020, we've completed our hedges. Nick alluded to earlier we've hedged 50% of production in Ghana and in Australia and 75% of production at South Deep. At the moment, there's no intention to hedge in 2021. However, we may look at some, put to protect the downside. So let's not but those are one of the options we exploring, but we will be taking all upside will be given to shareholders, if any new hedging is conducted will only be downside protection we will be looking for.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Where do you see group CapEx for 2021 and 2022?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

We're only giving guidance for 2020 and it's in the book.

Nick Holland

Analyst

Yeah. I would just say to try and give people a guide. We've said before that sustaining capital, which if you take out the Salares project and just look at sustaining capital, we believe it needs to be somewhere between $250 and $300 per ounce sustaining capital in order to sustain your business. And I'm talking here about ongoing stripping, ongoing underground development, additional waste storage facilities, tails lifts, your normal maintenance, CapEx et cetera. Work on that. And again, I would say, if other companies aren't sort of in or close to that range. I would ask them, why they think they can do that because it probably means they're not spending enough. So that would be the guide I would give.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Is the $110 million CapEx for 2025 the eight 60 capital budget?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

Yes.

Nick Holland

Analyst

Yes it is.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. And then what is the net leverage that you'll peak at during the capital build?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

At current prices the liter which says very much where it is at around one times.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Another one. You mentioned every asset in the portfolio has organic growth. How do you balance this organic growth with increasing your investment in Gruyere or Sanco versus the investment in Salares Norte?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Well, we are actually capitalizing on organic growth as we speak. We are actually adding to the portfolio consistently and deliberately every year. So it's not like we suddenly switch off. A good example is, if you look at the invincible complex where we showed the bull slides, we're continuing to develop into extensions of events for both at depth and laterally, it's in the current spend already. It's not like we've got to crank up the capital machine and start doing that. At Agnew, we're seeing that we're extending the footprint of Waroonga North vertically along with Cat. That's opening up mining horizons, we'll be mining within the next year or two. That's already in the capital. So I think it's only major structural shifts on the assets that, I would actually say is we should be thinking about, and if you look at our portfolio right now we're okay. I mean, there's nothing in the immediate future. We need to be concerned about. So I don't think that's going to add a serious material risk to the ability of the group to fund Salares and have other competing capital requirements in the short term.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Does the capital raise? Also your thoughts around the strategic partner? Are you now comfortable to take the biggest share of the development risk?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Well after the capital raise, we believe we have a fully funded project. We don't need to come back to the equity markets. We're done. We have funded now 30% of this project. As Paul has mentioned, we're very comfortable that we can fund the remaining 70% from robust cash flows and dip into our debt facilities temporarily for a period. You've heard Paul say we don't think we'll go much beyond 1x net debt to EBITDA. So very comfortable to do this after the equity raise on our own.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. One for Paul. To what extent will the company repay outstanding $600 million 2020 bonds using unutilized debt facilities?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

Most of the bond the $600 million that's paid out of cash flow. I mean there's obviously a lot of cash was generated last year. We've seen the regions at the moment will be brought up to pay down debt. So it will be from existing cash flows with almost no drawdown on the big bank facility.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

And then when does the company expect to refinance the Australian dollar facility?

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

We expect to do it during this year.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. And Nick I think is the last one for you is, what is the path forward for local power generation? And what is the budgeted amount?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Well we have submitted an application for a 40-megawatt solar power station at South Deep back in 2017. So I mean as people would know there's somewhere around about I think 1,500 megawatts of renewable applications sitting on the minister's desk which he alluded to at the Indaba. So he is undertaken to urgently push along the necessary legislative amendments approvals that needs to take place. And hopefully we'll -- I would hope that we'll get a green light maybe around about the middle of the year to third quarter. We're looking at different options. Whether we do this over the fence? Whether we do this on our own? And this would be Phase I -- 40 mgs would be Phase I. We're not optimistic that Eskom's problems are going to be solved anytime soon. In fact things are probably going to get worse before they get better. I think we're being fed the bad news. So there'll probably be more bad news coming. So we're taking a very conservative approach. This would give us probably about 20% of our requirements. It will take some time however about 18 months to get into construction for each operation rather. In the meantime we do have some gensets on site and we're looking to increase the gensets that we have. We talk about it now with the mine about the best outcome and have that synchronized with the group. So in the event that we have the more modest low curtailment requirements, we can still operate. The one benefit we do have and as always a silver lining is, we're operating this mine at about 1/3 of installed capacity. So we do have the flexibility to switch-off the plant and do hoisting, you know stop hoisting process in the plant and you know unlike maybe other mines that are trying to operate at full production. So we've got a bit of flexibility in the short run. But we've got to get this done to ensure the long-term sustainability. I'm sure we'll give more information on this at the next results presentation [indiscernible]

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Can we just check the conference call please? Are there any questions?

Operator

Operator

Yes. We have a question from Adrian Hammond of Standard Bank.

Adrian Hammond

Analyst

Good morning. Just on South Deep please, Nick, do you envisage South Deep as per your future portfolio or could Salares be the replacement for it? And is South Deep salable? A – Nick Holland: Adrian, our focus at the moment is to improve the short-term performance of South Deep. That's our key focus right now. I think that will inform options down the road. So we're not thinking beyond improving the short-term performance and we want to give ourselves some time. We don't think there's a big rush, if we've turned the asset around and we're making money and we think we'll make some pretty good money again in 2020. But I would say, we'll keep a strategic view on this. But for now, we're focusing on the short-term performance and we'll keep our options open for the future. Salares and South Deep, don't mix the two up. They're totally different opportunities. Salares is something that has been coming along a long time. This is not like a portfolio switch. They're two separate assets at different stages of evolution.

Adrian Hammond

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions on the line. Okay. Is there anything else on the floor besides the [indiscernible]

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

It's [Indiscernible] again from HSBC. Mine is a follow-up question on Adrian one. So there's been a lot of debate amongst investors around whether the global gold miners that are associated with South Africa trade at a discount to the peers because of it. Firstly, do you agree that they trade at a discount? And do you see an opportunity to unlock value in selling South Deep and exiting South Africa completely? Is that something that is still on the table or that you consider from time to time? A – Nick Holland: I would just say two things to you. In terms of the SA discount, it's interesting that it comes up from time to time. If you look at how we've performed last year. Look, how we've performed. We've been one of the top performers in 2019 in the gold industry. If you remember when we unbundled and created Sabana back in 2013, I think they were the top-performing gold stock in 2014 across the global universe. And a lot of it comes down to investors look at different companies, they look at the potential, can you make money? Can you generate a good return? That's what they're after first and foremost. The thing about multiples is an interesting one. And one you can't guarantee that can be achieved, because multiples could be driven by a whole bunch of different things. And when you actually make business decisions, you've got to make them based on industrial logic, not on perceived multiples versus the multiples you're getting now. So I think our focus is going to continue to be what we've done in 2019, it's continue to deliver this portfolio of assets and generate superior returns for shareholders. Let's see what we do if we can achieve that.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. So last question from Shilan. And then.

Shilan Modi

Analyst

Hi. It's Shilan from UBS again. Just a question on your portfolio. So after including Salares Norte, how are you thinking about the portfolio? What do we – what do you think it will look like in three to five years' time? And where I'm leading to is some of your competitors are potentially selling assets? Is that something of interest? Would you be interested in M&A?

Nick Holland

Analyst

Yeah. Look three, four years out is a long way away what is the market going to look like. Some of our assets will need three, four years out, we'll have to think about whether we're going to recapitalize some of our assets. Demand obviously when we announced the demand reinvestment plan, it's a 7-year plan. There's essentially five years of that left. We'd have to think about what we're going to do with demand. So that is a key decision point for us. On the Australian mines I think if we continue doing what we're doing on the exploration, I don't see any reason why we won't continue being successful on all of those mines. And I think they all got the potential to extend their lives. I think we're seeing some tremendous quality exploration results coming out across the piece. So Australia, I think looks good. We know that corona has got a fair time ahead of it still. So, no immediate reason for us to think about Tarkwa. I think as you've seen has got potential to be here in 10 years time or even longer. And South Deep, as we've discussed, our focus at the moment is, let's see what we can achieve here. And that will help to inform the strategies. But the one thing, I can say about South Deep that I'll rule out completely is a fire sale. Okay? We won't be doing any kind of panic sale. We will do anything that we do on that mine from a position of strength. And I just want to clarify again, the options are open. The team has done well. We want to give the team time and reassess with the Board where we stand on the operation again by the end of the year. So I think that covers the portfolio for you hopefully.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

M&A

Nick Holland

Analyst

M&A look we don't need to do anything. I think in particular on M&A we got Salares. If you look at the stuff that's being bought out there at the moment and the prices that are being paid. I'm not going to talk about specific assets, but you could figure it out. I think for us to be going out and using our firepower on some old tired assets at the expense of new assets that have really un-quantified upside. I think you know the answer. Thank you.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay. Thank you for your interest. Thank you for your time. Media roundtables upstairs in 10 minutes time. Thank you.

Nick Holland

Analyst

Thank you very much.