Earnings Labs

Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, May 7, 2014

$4.47

-0.78%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome to Gerdau's conference call to discuss the earnings of the first quarter of 2014. [Operator Instructions] I'd would like to highlight that any statements that may be made during this conference call related to Gerdau's business outlook as well as operating financial projections and goals are only assumptions based on the management's expectations vis-à-vis the future of the company. Although Gerdau believes its comments are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events might not affect these assessments. Today with us, we have Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter, President and CEO, and André Pires, Vice President and IRO. Now I would like to give the floor to Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter. You may proceed, sir. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gerdau's earnings conference call. As usual, we will start our analysis assessing the world steel market scenario, and then we will address Gerdau's performance in the first quarter of 2014 and the outlook for the year and regions where the company is present. Please, note that we'll be talking about the quarter's performance vis-à-vis the same period of the previous year. Afterwards, André Pires will give a detailed presentation of Gerdau's financial performance, and then we'll take your questions. For the analysts [ph] that are following us over the web, we are now on Slide 2. The world steel production totaled 404 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2013, growing 2.2%. Excluding China, production worldwide increased by 2.5%, reaching 203 million tonnes. In Brazil, there was an increase of 1.5% in production, reaching 2.8 million (sic) [8.3 million] tonnes. In Latin America, the growth was 2.8% year-on-year, totaling 7.8 million tonnes. And steel production in the U.S. was 21.5 million tonnes, virtually the same volume produced last year.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thiago Lofiego from Merrill Lynch.

Thiago K. Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

I have 2 questions. One has to do with the United States. So could you talk about your margin expectations for North America in the second quarter and where the metal spread is now and signs of rebound in the U.S. market? The second question has to do with Brazil. At the beginning, you have already mentioned that, but maybe you can give us some color about the demand expectations for the domestic market for the next few quarters. Do you see any possibility of a drop in demand maybe in the second quarter or the third quarter, and taking into account the risks that you mentioned besides the rationing risk and World Cup, elections, et cetera, this year is slightly different from the other, so maybe you could give us some color about that? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Thiago, thank you. This is André Pires. Starting with the United States, as we said during the presentation, in fact, winter was exceptionally cold and everybody knows that. And as of March, we started to see a major reaction both from the demand viewpoint and the general price environment as well, and we can say the same for April. So the feeling that we have is that there is an improvement in demand, and there is also an opportunity for expansion in our margins. Besides, you asked us to talk about spreads, and you have been tracking this as well as all the other analysts, and for quite some time, the metal spread was lower than $400 per short ton, and now it's starting to break the barrier again, so this is an important sign for all of us. Regarding the outlook, if we look at the data supplied by the Department of Commerce every week, the nonresidential construction sector,…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Ivano Westin from Credit Suisse. Ivano Westin - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: About the Brazil unit, you made it clear -- you made it very clear the scenario for volumes. So what about the price parity today for rebars? And what is your expectation of prices for the second quarter? The second one has to do with mining. You had a good result with a healthy margin, so what is your expectation for the evolution of cash cost in mining and improvement in margins, and if after the results and the strong volumes in Q1, you will be revising your guidance up for the year? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Ivano, this is André Pires. Regarding prices, we usually talk about this theme, and we continue to consider that we are competitive in general here in Brazil. In regards to your question about mining, our cash cost will certainly improve as we accelerate production in our units in Miguel Burnier and Várzea do Lopes. So there is nothing concrete that I could add to what was, well, there is just said but with the cash cost level that we have today, we consider our operation as being highly competitive. Regarding production, basically, we have not changed vis-à-vis what we have been saying for 1 year already about 2014. We reached the end of 2013 with 11.5 million tonnes production -- capacity production. We believe that we can do 9 million, 9.5 million tonnes, depending on some circumstances, and we continue to maintain the same expectations that we have been maintaining, delivering what we said we would be delivering and continuing with the projection of reaching 8 million tonnes capacity in 2016. So we maintain the expectations that we mentioned before. Would you like to add something? Ivano Westin - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: No, it's quite clear. Allow me to ask one point. Within your strategy, could you go back to your talks with prospects that might be interested in buying your mining operations or... André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Well, this is André. No. Today, our focus is on our project to reach reduction this year and ramp up afterwards, so this is not on our radar screen at all. We are not looking for a partner.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marcelo Aguiar, Goldman Sachs.

Marcelo Aguiar - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Let me go back to mining. If we look at the results of BO for iron ore, we show the mining cost or the iron ore cost that is relatively low, around $40 in the first quarter. I'd just like to have a better understanding. If you take into account they don't have a port, they don't have to pay MRF railway, the cost seems to be very low. So could you give us a breakdown of third-party shipment? How much was for exports or domestic markets? Maybe it might help to explain the cost of $40. Another point is about costs in Brazil. We perceive a strong cost increase per tonne according to the upside data, 11% quarter-on-quarter. I would like to better understand what's behind this cost increase quarter-on-quarter and also the cost of tonne in Brazil. What do you envisage for the second quarter? These are my questions. André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcelo, André Pires speaking. Let me talk about mining first. We're not going to disclose or break down into domestic or international market or exports, but we've been trying to benefit from opportunities in the domestic market. However, we keep on exporting a lot of the iron ore to third parties. Basically, these exports are sent to China and Europe, and we have frequent access to this market. As to the increased cost per tonne, we can see some impact in Brazil. Like we said before, we had a downtime for maintenance of the blast furnace in Ouro Branco mill and also some things related to iron ore costs that are expected to go down again. We always have a lagging effect for 2 or 3 months vis-à-vis the iron ore comps and because the price went down a little bit, it was higher in the fourth quarter related to the third quarter, and that has an impact on the first quarter, but possibly, that will be a benefit in the dropping iron ore in Ouro Branco operations. I guess these are the major effects. And also another effect, for the last 12 months with the exchange depreciation, there is another import that sometimes has some conversion or impact from dollars into reals.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Renato Antunes from Brasil Plural.

Renato Antunes

Analyst · Brasil Plural

Still about costs in Brazil. I would like to hear from you how you see the scrap market in Brazil? Is this trying to be organized where exports are low but are still growing? Do you think the scrap prices are high and, therefore, that might impair costs and performance over 2014? That's my first question. Second question is about the United States. I wonder if you could comment on antidumping. That is a preliminary decision about the antidumping rate that was slightly lower to Turkey and higher to Mexico. What are your expectations? Do you think it might be a benefit or not or a better dilution of fixed cost with higher volume more oriented to the second half of the year? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Renato, André speaking. Answering your question about scrap, I won't get into specific detail on price but, by and large, in Brazil, we always have the option to use melted iron. This is always our mix, the mix we use. And because there is a limit of scrap in Brazil, we also use pig iron, and we can use more or less based on supply and demand. Exports are relatively stable -- for scrap I mean. So there is some balance in the market, and we expect to have flat prices, flat scrap prices. And once again, we can always use melted iron as an alternative. In terms of antidumping in the U.S., for Mexico, for some producers, they have 10% and 15%, which was our expectation. As for Turkey, it is different. It was lower than our expectation, 12.2%. However, these are preliminary data. We expect to have the numbers revised to be better studied and analyzed so that we can have more data and the number might be up, but we still have to wait and see. In September, we'll have the final decision. It's very hard to assess any impact. The market is so huge, and these are 2 countries that export it a lot, but there are others, too. We also have domestic competition, mills, so it's very hard to tell the direct impact considering antidumping practices.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marcos Assumpção, Itaú BBA. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: My first question has to do with volume in the U.S. The first quarter was slightly weaker, so what is the outlook now? Do you consider a rebound in the second quarter, and what is the perspective on Gerdau's volume in the U.S. over 2014? I'd like to remind you that in previous quarters, performance was likely below the market, and we expected to see a rebound in market share. André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcos, André Pires speaking. The expectation for growth in the long broader market in the U.S. is about 4 points, not just for long products but general to consumption in the U.S. growing by 4% in 2014. Our expectation for the full year is to grow slightly more than that. We believe from 5% to 6% would be a reasonable assumption. Obviously, we also take into account current market conditions. If the market keeps on improving as it is now, probably it will be even more significant. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: Perfect. My second question has to do with investment. You did an excellent job in reliability management of the company, but focusing on cash generation at Gerdau, when would we expect to see a reduction in the company's net debt? In other words, I think everybody is beginning to see improved EBITDA considering slightly better results in the U.S. and also in the future in Brazil. What about CapEx? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: It might go down as of 2015, and maybe we can see more cash generation and lower net debt. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: When should we expect to see this? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcos, Pires speaking. Based on our estimates and when we look at the future, like you said, about CapEx and also considering our EBITDA and debt levels, we believe we'll keep on showing stability or even a reduction in the net debt over EBITDA ratio based on what we see in our expectation. But 2014, we expect to see a lower ratio, that's our expectation, and the continuity of the outstanding issue for 2015. So our efforts for liquidity management and balance sheet management that started last year still continues. Obviously, there are short-term observation. In the first quarter, we also have, in fact, driven by working capital, which is normal in our business, but the trend in the mid to long horizon is to keep on having the leverage. That's something we can tell for sure.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Now we close the Q&A session. I would like to give the floor back to Mr. Andre Gerdau Johannpeter and Mr. André Pires for their closing remarks. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you very much. I thank, everybody, for the participation, the interest and the questions in our call. And should you have any further doubts or questions, please, contact our Investor Relations area. I would like to invite you to participate on June 30 -- July 30, our next conference call regarding the result of the second quarter of 2014. Have a very good day.

Operator

Operator

Gerdau's conference call is closed. We thank you for participating and wish you a very good afternoon.