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Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Gerdau's conference call to discuss the results of the Third Quarter of 2016. At this time, all participants will be on a listen-only mode during the company's presentation. And after the company's remarks we will initiate the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] We would like to emphasize that any forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call related to Gerdau's business outlook, projections, and financial and operating goals are mere assumptions based on management's expectations related to the future of the company. Even though Gerdau believes that its comments are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. Here today are Mr. Andre Gerdau Johannpeter, Director, President, and CEO; and Harley Scardoelli, Executive Finance Vice President. With no further ado, I would like to give the floor to Mr. Johannpeter. You may proceed, sir.

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thank you. Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to this conference call to discuss Gerdau's results. We will start our analysis with an overview of the world steel industry, and next we will comment on Gerdau's performance in the third quarter of the year, followed by more details on our investment in the period. It is important to mention that we will analyze the performance of the consolidated figures in the third quarter of 2016 in relation to the same period of the year before. After my remarks, Harley Scardoelli will elaborate on Gerdau's financial performance. And finally, we will both be available to take your questions. For those of you following us online, we are on page two, and then I will talk about the general overview of steel. Last October, the World Steel Association published an update of the forecast for apparent fuel consumption for 2016, and the following year. It is anticipated that 2016 will end with a 0.2% increase of global demand for steel after going through a drop of 3% in 2015. Excluding China, the outlook points to a 1% growth in demand, reaching 1.5 billion tons, for 2017 we should expect a 0.5% increase in global demand for steel raising by enlarging and developing economies. That, excluding China, should experience a 4% increase in demand. However China should experience a 2% drop in demand for 2017, and that is due to the lower pace of their economy. Besides our modest predictions for the consumption of global steel, the industry still faces the same difficulties and challenges that we encountered this year will maybe met next year due to unfair competition coming from some countries in the international space. In addition to that, the economic recession in Brazil led to lower steel demand. In 2016, steel…

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thank you, Andre, and good afternoon everyone. On slide six, I will talk about the results and the performance of each of our business operations in the third quarter of this year, and then I will give you some more details about our consolidated results. Starting with the Brazil operations, in relation to the second quarter of 2016, sales to the domestic market were down due to the lower pace of the activity in the construction industry and industry in general, in addition to accumulated inventory from clients in the second quarter of 2016, anticipating price increases. Exports were down, especially in September, however in the third quarter of 2016 they showed better margins. Now looking at the EBITA for the third quarter of this year, the absolute value increased vis-à-vis the second quarter of the same year due to higher net sales per ton in the domestic market and abroad. In addition to benefit from lower SG&A expenses. These factors combined allowed the EBITDA margin to go from 13.2% in the second quarter of 2016, to 19.7% in the third quarter. Despite the good performance in the third quarter, the level of the economic activity in Brazil remains low, and we noted a reduction in the performance of exports, giving us a more challenging landscape for the next months, in addition to the seasonality in the period. In North America, shipments were down by 17.5% when we compare to the third quarter of this year with the second quarter of the same year due to strong competition from imported goods in the region, and the lower pace of the industrial activity in addition to a certain caution because of the political landscape. EBITDA in the third quarter of 2016 was lower vis-à-vis the second quarter due to lower volumes…

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thank you, Harley. Now, we are on slide 11 for those of you who are following us, and to conclude the presentation I'd like to say that we were able to in this quarter to reduce the impact of this difficult moment of the steel industry in the world and in Brazil and this reflects all of our efforts in management along with many other activities. Despite the challenging landscape in the industry, we were able to reduce expenses, improve the margins, limit CapEx and maintain stable debt position. I also said that we were able to have a significant free cash flow position. So in terms of Brazil, this slight improvement in the margins, we anticipate the same challenging landscape for the following months but still considering a gradual recovery but lower levels of export. This challenging scenario also applies to the other operations in the Americas. In face of that, we will continue working diligently in all of the different initiatives to generate further value to Gerdau. Some of those efforts are the modernization of our culture, reviewing the potential of the possibilities of our assets, reduction of possible expenses which has resulted in a good generation of free cash flow, restriction to CapEx and also the deployment of several projects in the area of digital innovation which has been translated into efficiency gain and productivity gain in our operations. With that, we conclude our presentation, and we are open to answer your questions.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Ladies and gentlemen, we are now initiating our Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Thiago Lofiego from Bradesco BBI.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Congratulations for your results. I have two questions. The first is whether you can comment on the impact of coal, and if you could talk a little bit about the magnitude of the impact, and how much of that impacted you, and along the same question, and I was thinking about cost, so do you see more room to further cut in costs? Now the second question about the steel demand in Brazil, my question is whether you notice some positive signs of improved demand in the last few months and whether you could also speak about the construction industry dynamics and whether you could refer to some of the most important factors that affect your industry? Thank you.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon, Thiago. This is Harley. For the first part of the question, I think there are two important aspects to talk about when we speak about coal. Our production activity that is affected by coal refers to 5% of consolidated shipments which is, but in consolidated terms our position, I mean we have a percentage with scrap and 25% integrated with coal. We also have many contracts with fixed prices and there are short term contracts. This impact may occur maybe next year but this will be mitigated by our mix between mini mills and the integrated mills. The second part of your question referring to cost, we continue to be very diligent in our efforts. We were able to capture good coot reductions especially net G&A but I would say that it was, few have some room to achieve further improvements and we will still see some positive impact to that end to us the next coming months.

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thiago, this is Andre. Now referring to demand in Brazil, we haven't seen yet in practical terms any increases in demands or increase in orders but what we see is a change in the general mood and trust level. We have seen some improvements like lower interest rates, it was very significant but if it's in the right direction we also see the possibility of further investments in infrastructure. Therefore the landscape change, but in practical terms we aren't experiencing it yet but we believe that we will still have to go through difficult six or eight months and things will begin to improve in the second half of next year. I would also like to mention two other things, if we compare the domestic market in Brazil comparing it year on year there was an 18% drop but if you compare the previous half of the year to this one the drop was 8%. I mean those are both significant reductions but things are getting better. So we gradually see signs of improvement, therefore I believe that the rebound will occur still. The recovery will come, it will come, it's just hard to tell when and in what magnitude.

Thiago Lofiego

Analyst

In your last call you said that you were beginning to see some signs of improvement on the consumer side. Are you talking about that there is small [ph] and spread around market?

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

This market is small market. It doesn't interpret that much but it's been now impacted by unemployment, by the job in household income. So there are some aspects that lead to reductions in consumptions and we don't see any particular recovery. And the outlook is good but things have not materialized yet. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Marcos Assumpcao from Itau BBA.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon everyone. My first question is about your partnership with GE digital. This is still an infant project but do you believe that this will be able to reduce your maintenance CapEx in the long run and the second question is whether you could tell us about Brazil's EBITDA in September particularly? Thank you.

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Itau BBA

Hi, Marcus, this is Andre. About GE, just to elaborate a bit more on that project, this is a pioneer project and it involves the partnership between Gerdau and GE. This includes an important investment in centers. We will put more than 1000 machines to have a much better preventive maintenance operations to sensors can measure vibration, machine temperature, vibration, rotations etc. And once you monitor all that, you prevent waste and outage and set up time. Therefore we have important gains in maintenance and equipment use and equipment life and this is, and so we can reduce CapEx because the machines will not require of maintenance and the machines will probably have an extended lifespan and this as a result should lead to reduction in CapEx. I cannot precise you how much but there would be some. The second question was about Brazil's EBITDA in September.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Harley. We will not refer specifically to the month of September. We can only refer to the quarter.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst · Itau BBA

Okay. So, let me ask you something else. We have seen the [indiscernible] to industry, starting negotiations with the automotive industry and they were also able to post some parts increases on the distribution side and the crisis were a bit far from the automotive prices. Do you see any expectation for higher pricing increases doing negotiations with the automotive industry which is maybe in addition to that mismatch of prices demanded very much elastic? Do you also see the same trend in the area of specialty field? Do you see any relevant changes in the short run?

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon, Marcus, this is Harley. This pricing dynamics in the specialty steel industry, it's not yet finalized. We haven't reached the final of our new agreement. The outlook and how this will behave is something hard to predict now but what we said is that we believe that there should be some gradual recovery throughout 2017 and this can certainly help because this coupled with some elasticity can be good but it's too soon to make any comment about crisis in that margin.

Marcos Assumpcao

Analyst · Itau BBA

Right. Thank you very much.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Kyle Hibader from BTG Pactual.

Kyle Hibader

Analyst · BTG Pactual

Good morning. I have two questions. The first question is about working capital. There was an increase in the quarter very much related to accumulated inventory or increase in inventory. How do you see this line going forward? In the first half of the year there was a significant reduction in working capital, so do you think that the current level, as some say, that is closer to in normal level or this is the, I mean in the third quarter this is closer to the normal level? And secondly in relation to the metal spread in the U.S., could you please tell us a bit about how do you see the evolution of metal spread vis-à-vis the previous quarter and what is your expectation looking forward into the next quarter? Thank you very much.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · BTG Pactual

Good afternoon, Kyle, this is Harley. Well, about working capital the drop in sales that occur particularly at the end of the third quarter, especially if you look at it due to the days of the [indiscernible] and there were some factors that had impacted it but the drop in sales is that we still need some time to react but have to look at working capital in a more continued way. And our opinion is that in the fourth quarter we will be able to revert that trend. New levels of working capital is something that is difficult for us to say anything to you in the short run especially if you look at the trend in the last two quarters, it was not so low I mean as in the second and not as high as in the third but the focus is still very firm in that area especially in North America when it comes to the fourth quarter. This is abou6 working capital. Now speaking about metal spread, there are some particular elements we were at probably the lowest level ever in the last few years due to series of things. We talked about the U.S. environment, a lot imports. There was a lot of volatility in the political landscape because of the elections that now have been defined. What we see is pressure coming from raw material. And this usually reflects an improvement in the metal spread. But it's just soon to make any prediction but we believe that historically speaking, we are at very low level, so this should grow. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Thiago Ojea from Citibank.

Thiago Ojea

Analyst · Citibank

Good afternoon, and thank for allowing us to ask questions. My first -- my question has to do with your U.S. business. I know that things are too very recent, but given the new outlook coming from the Trump government with more infrastructure investments, do you -- can you anticipate any idea about demand for 2017? You have any idea of quantity? And also in terms of iron ore, the prices are going up in the international market. Do you believe that you will be to resume exports? Or whether it will be worthwhile to resume exports of iron ore or not?

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Citibank

Thiago, this is Andre. I will talk about the United States. As you said, Trump was just elected, but within monitoring and even both candidates had a very strong government plan when it comes to investments in infrastructure. So, our expectation is with the new president elect in the next few years, we believe that there should be more investments in infrastructure. The United States really needs investments in infrastructure. And this has been the case for many years. And this has an impact in the economy because this generates job, consumption, and growth. Infrastructure brings about many benefits to the local for economy. Therefore, we believe that they should resume investments in infrastructure once the new president takes over. In terms of numbers, it's hard to make any prediction. But we do believe that there will be investments in infrastructure.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Citibank

Good afternoon, Thiago, this is Harley. Now about the second part of your question, even with losses in international pricing, our focus remains in the supply of our own operations. And therefore, we are much more focused on supplying to our own operations at competitive cost. Rather than selling abroad or exporting, our focus remains in the local supply. There maybe some opportunities in the stock markets, and if they come about, we will look at it. But again, the main focus is on cost, and we want to deliver at competitive cost.

Thiago Ojea

Analyst · Citibank

Fair enough. How much non-residential represents today in your sales mix, just to conclude? Thank you.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Citibank

Approximately 40%, Thiago.

Thiago Ojea

Analyst · Citibank

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question from [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Good afternoon, everyone. I would just like to get more information on the production front from the blast furnace in the Brazil unit. What is the status of that today? And when would you consider exchanging the operation and whether you are already doing something at Gerdau? And the second question is on South America. The margins -- even though there was a slight drop in the quarter, the margins are still quite high. What should we expect looking forward? Should we -- do you expect the same margin in the future? Thank you.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon, Rena [ph]. In terms of stopping production between the integrated operation and that one, we do not focus directly on that because these operations are dedicated to several segments in different markets. And we understand that both operations have a very good cost structure. Therefore, we are not contemplating anything in terms of stopping production. And I imagine that this has something to do with mineralogical scrap and in a consolidated way in terms of mini mills and integrated mills, production is half-in-half and especially due to the Oura that we have access to, our cost structure is very good and we are not contemplating that as something necessary for the moment. So there will be no [indiscernible] mini mills and integrated ones. Now South America, the margin levels that we attained if we look historically, we have reached level above 10%. This has been the case since the second half of 2015. We are doing a lot of efforts to reduce cost, and in South America, the operations have been open to international prices for quite some time, especially Peru and Chile. So, we are making strong adjustments on the cost side. And we see some good outlook for Colombia and Peru. And we see good performance in volume growth and that's why for all of these reasons we were able to achieve very good margins in the region. South America in the short term is also affected by seasonal element. Usually this part of the year is weaker, but in the long run we believe that the margins we will above 10%. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Victor [indiscernible] from Bank of Brazil.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Good afternoon, everyone. My question has to do with the maturity of bonds in 2017. Given the landscape for next half of the year if that is worth and expected and you generate large cash, are you looking at other alternatives in terms of maturities of debt? Or so in general what I want to learn is what are your funding alternatives?

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Brazil

Good afternoon, Victor. Speaking about the bonds that mature in October of 2017, well, first of all that involves about $800 million or less. In [indiscernible] liquidity, in addition to having more than BRL1.5 billion in cash and most of it in U.S., we also have good working capital that is fully committed. It's available to the company and the amount is higher than $1 billion. So we have approximately $2 billion to pay for that disbursement if need be in October 2017. We can also have the alternative to engage in a total or partial financing of the debt. So there will be available credit lines in the market. And because of our investments rating, we have access to credit and we will continue evaluating the possibilities in the long run. So everything has to do with our liquidity position and our view that if we believe that we have to engage in additional financing they would be available. Now about divestments, we have already talked about it before and this is part of our portfolio reassessment that started last we are still looking at other possibilities like joint ventures and other investments or there is nothing yet decided, we just have to look into what the opportunities will be. Now in terms of 2017, we do not necessarily need for anything of that to happen in order to fulfill our commitment. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes [indiscernible] from Goldman Sachs.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Good afternoon, everyone and thank you. I would like to focus on the Brazil business operation and whether you could help us get a better modeling of the business and help us understand what would be the contribution coming from iron ore to that margin of 19.7 of EBITDA? And what would be the EBITDA level that the third party or they're running at because this would help us to get a better understanding of the steel business and run the model for the future?

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon. This is Harley. Speaking about the margins of this quarter in Brazil, this is something more related to the alignment of some factors that we mentioned during this call. But notably prices in Brazil, the prices had a positive impact in our figures for the quarter in exports material-wise especially in the early part of the quarter we've good profitability and we also benefited from that large export toward cost reduction including SG&A. The combination of all the factors is what let us to this good alignment of prices and therefore the result is that we had a good performance in Brazil. I'm referring specifically to ore it's important to say that our mining operation is consolidated and this has indicated for several quarters. So in terms of the price aspect, I mean the price is not affecting these results because these have been already contemplated before. I think you should remove that from your analysis and I reinstate that is all due to a combination of factors, good prices in Brazil, good profitability coming from exports and also a great efforts towards cost reduction especially in SG&A that more than offset the situation.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Thank you. Could you also say something about volumes and third parties because the iron ore did positive run this quarter and in an annual basis.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

This number varies from quarter to quarter, and this number is published in our quarterly report that one third goes to third parties and sometimes some through export, and I once again repeat that our focus is to supply to [indiscernible] rather than sales to the foreign market. So between 25% to 33% or 35% is what that represents.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Nielson Sullivan [ph] [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Good afternoon. I have two questions and both questions are follow-up of Rebecca's [ph] question. I'd like to get a better understanding of export prices in Brazil. This quarter we noticed that there was significant prices difference quarter-on-quarter and Harley said that this operation occurred mostly in the early part of the quarter. So what is their price of the product today given the volatility experienced in the last few months, whether possibility is better or worse and what could be expected in terms of prices in the foreign market from now on? And it's on the Brazil operation, my question refer to other revenue. So let me see if I understood this ore is the ore that you sell to yourself to Ouro Branco, but there is also or third parties it's a volume from third parties. And in a foot note you mentioned that the Brazil revenue also includes sales of coke and coal for iron ore. Could you please elaborate more on the impact coming from other revenues and whether they are allocated in the domestic market or foreign market? Thank you.

Harley Scardoelli

Analyst · Itau BBA

Good afternoon, Nielsen [ph]. This is Harley. To elaborate on this subject when we talked about export pricing the dynamic of the business changed a positive aspect in the third quarter refers to sale in the last of the quarter which were accounted for later on and then it was due to the business environment of exports at at the end of their second quarter reflected in the figures of the third quarter. So at the end of quarter the landscape is much more complicated. So as we speak and looking towards the future the export market are giving signs of recovery with a better iron ore price better price for reverse [ph] and these are opportunities that may come up, but it's too sensitive whether this will impact us in the short [indiscernible] positive in the third quarter is reflection of what happened at the end of the second quarter that have implication that had result in the third quarter. Now speaking about sales of ore or coal that impact affects the domestic -- sales of the domestic market, but they are not relevant and not when you analyze the entire period it's not something that will impact your analysis that much. We do not get into lot of details because as we said sales volumes is very volatile and it varies quarter-on-quarter therefore our focus is mostly related to supply to our own operations. And if we look at our indicators you'll see that sales per quarter varies, but on average for the year it will be between 25% to 35%.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Brazil

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We now conclude the Q&A session. I'd like to give the floor back to Mr. Andre Gerdau Johannpeter for his final remarks.

Andre Gerdau Johannpeter

Analyst · Itau BBA

Thank you all very much for participating in this conference call and your interest. And on behalf of Harley and myself if you still have any questions, please refer to our Investor Relations department. I would like to take this opportunity to invite you also participate in our next call in February 22 or 27 to discuss the results of the fourth quarter of 2016. Thank you very much and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Gerdau's conference call is now concluded. We would like thank you all for participating and have a good afternoon.