Laurence G. Sellyn - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer
Analyst · Desjardins Securities. Please proceed
Good morning and welcome to Gildan’s third quarter conference call. I apologize for the delay and starting the call, which was due to very high volumes of participants speak process into call. We will review our results for the June quarter and our outlook for our fourth quarter then cover the assumptions underlying our fiscal 2008 EPS and capital expenditure guidance. EPS for the third quarter before restructuring charges was $0.47 per share, which includes the $0.05 benefit of an income tax recovery relating to the first year of our international tax structure 1999, which became statute barred in June of this year. Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2006, EPS before restructuring charges grew by 34% including the benefit of the tax recovery and by 20% excluding the tax recovery. The growth in EPS was due to the $0.10 per share favorable impact of favorable manufacturing efficiencies compared to last year, and the $0.07 impact of higher unit sales volumes. Partially offset by a slight reduction of approximately 0.5% in unit selling prices. And the $0.03 per share impact of higher cost, higher SG&A and depreciation expenses, and the continuing dilution from the Kentucky Derby acquisition, which amounted to $0.03 in the quarter. Unit sales increased by 66% from the third quarter of last year. Excluding the impact of socks, unit sales increased by 11.6% due to higher market share in all product categories in the U.S. screenprint channel. 3% growth in overall industry demand in the channel during the June quarter and 38% unit growth in activewear shipments in international markets outside North America. Pricing is relatively stable in the channel, and industry supply demand is in very good balance. According to Starts, total inventory in the channel at the end of June was down by 6.2% compared to demand growth for the quarter of 3%, and unit sales growth of 3.7% in the month of June. Days’ sales of t-shirts inventories in the channel at the end of June were 54 days versus 59 days a year ago. Our guidance range of 25% to 30% EPS growth for the quarter did not include the benefit of the tax recovery and did not anticipate the $0.03 per share dilution from the Kentucky Derby. The main factor resulting as a continuing EPS dilution from Kentucky Derby is that our major new sock programs for national retail chains have been priced towards to generate in appropriate margin based on the ramped-up cost structure of Rio Nance sock factory which will be achieve by the end of this fiscal year. Margin from the third quarter reflected a cost structure, which was based primarily on our former Kentucky Derby U.S. manufacturing plans, which has previously announced during the process of being closed as well as high cost contractors. Also, although, 25% of the product which go through cost of sales in the third quarter was produced at Rio Nance, it was primarily produced in the second quarter when the plant had more inefficient rate of capacity utilization. The EPS dilution from Kentucky Derby was not reflected in our guidance mainly because inventory and reorder requirements to support the major new retail sock programs, which we have attained were greater than have been anticipated, resulting in more extensive use of contractors and additional transportation cost. To put this into a prospective, approximately 50% of our total sock sales in the third quarter were to service our new mass market retail programs. And about 30% of the product to service these new programs was sourced from high cost U.S. contractors, which generated minimal single digit gross margins. The impact of the Kentucky Derby acquisition is expected to be $0.01 diluted in the fourth quarter due to the consumption of inventories previously produced at a harder cost structure. However, the integration process will be completed in the fourth quarter. By the end the current quarter, Rio Nance will be ramped-up to an economic scale of production. The consolidation of retail distribution centers will be complete with operations of the mass market retail distribution center being fully cost efficient, and retail sales and support functions will be fully integrated into Gildan. Gross margin for products being produced in Rio Nance 3 were approximately 17% at the end of the third quarter. But they are expected to be at the same level as our activewear gross margins by the end of September. Consequently, the sock business is expected to be $0.04 per share accretive in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Even after reflecting the impact of consuming the balance of the higher cost inventories reduced in fiscal 2007. For the full year fiscal 2007, we are reiterating our previous guidance of EPS before restructuring of $1.30 per share including the benefits of the tax recovery. EPS growth for the full year is projected at 24% before restructuring charges. Fourth quarter EPS is expected to be $0.38 per share, slightly below our previous guidance range due to the continuing EPS dilution in the fourth quarter from Kentucky Derby as we consume previously manufactured higher cost inventories. Gross margin for activewear are projected to increase by close to 200 basis points in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, mainly due to improved manufacturing efficiencies in the DR and Haiti where we experienced some short-term operating issues in the third quarter. Activewear margins in the fourth quarter will also begin to benefit from the ramp-up of Honduras fleece facility. Our Canadian textile operations have been closed this week. Although, activewear inventories produced in Canada will still flow-through cost of sales in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Turning to fiscal 2008. We have completed our detailed budgeting process for next year and are comfortable to initiate our EPS guidance fro next year with a range of $1.80 to $1.85 U.S. per share, up approximately 40% from fiscal 2007. The main base case assumptions driving our projected EPS growth for next year are as follows. Firstly, the closure of our Canadian textile operations will ramp-up our offshore textile facilities in Honduran, and the impact of having continue to improve the efficiency in cost structure of our Dominican Republic and Haiti manufacturing hub during the course of fiscal 2007 are expected to contribute in excess of $0.30 per share to year-over-year EPS growth in fiscal 2008, primarily due to relocating fleece on 50-50 t-shirts offshore. Projected savings are after taking accounts of the impact of consuming in 2008, fabric inventories produced in Canada in fiscal 2007 at higher manufacturing costs. The non-recurrence of which will result in further savings of over $0.05 per share in fiscal 2009 versus 2008. The Rio Nance fleece facility began commercial operations in April of 2007. We expect the facility to be fully ramped-up in the third fiscal quarter of 2008, by which time unit cost savings for fleece products are projected to be approximately $8 per dozen. The second factor driving our EPS growth in fiscal 2008 is our projected year-over-year EPS accretion from completing the integration of Kentucky Derby, which is estimated at $0.20 per share, up from our previous estimate of $0.15 per share, because of the $0.05 dilution in fiscal 2007. The $0.20 per share EPS accretion is comprised of $0.18 per share which was the impact of manufacturing cost reductions and $0.05 per share due to lower distribution costs and the consolidation of administration unit support functions into Gildan. These cost reductions are assumed to be partially offset by the negative $0.03 per share impact of consuming the balance of high cost inventories produced in fiscal 2007. The annual production run rate of Rio Nance 3 is projected to be approximately 18 million dozens at the end of fiscal 2007 and increased to 27 million dozens by mid-year of fiscal 2008. The third factor impacting our EPS growth next year is the unit volume growth for activewear products in fiscal 2008, which has been projected at approximately 14% and which is projected to contribute in excess of $0.30 per share to EPS growth next year. The majority of our additional capacity in activewear, in the first half of fiscal 2008 will be required to support our projected continuing strong growth in the screenprint channel both in the U.S. and in Europe and other international markets. In addition, our guidance includes an additional 1.5 million dozens of new retail programs for activewear and underwear. Based on the projected ramp-up of Rio Nance 2, we will have additional capacity available to pursue new mass market retail programs in the second half of fiscal 2008, which we will pursue, although, it is premature to include such programs in our guidance at this stage. With the integration of KDH in our retail operations complete, we will be in a position to focus on pursuing and servicing further retail programs. We will be evaluating on these for further capacity expansion in activewear during fiscal 2008. We believe that we are relatively well positioned competitively with respect to our coverage of future cotton cost for fiscal 2008. We have taken a conservative approach in our EPS guidance for fiscal 2008 by assuming that the currently uncovered portion of our fiscal 2008 cotton is purchased at current future costs, which reflect significant cost increases in the later part of next year. Historically, increases in raw material and commodity cost have generally been pass-through into higher selling prices in the screenprint channel. Gildan has announced price increases average to 3% to 5% for those product lines, to take effect at the beginning of the first quarter of fiscal 2008. However, we have not assumed at this stage that these selling price increases will be successfully implemented not withstanding the upward pressure on pricing, resulting from higher cotton cost. Our capital expenditures for fiscal 2008 are projected at approximately $155 million including carryover expenditures of $20 million which were previously projected to be incurred in fiscal 2007. The carryover is due to a minor delay in the timing of the delivery of equipment from Rio Nance 2 and 3 combined with the delay in beginning the energy cost reduction project in Honduras, which we announced in May, due to permitting and other logistical issues. The majority of the planned capital expenditures for fiscal 2008 relate to completing the ramp-up of the Rio Nance 2 and 3, implementing the new energy and chemicals cost reduction projects, and beginning the product to contractions of a second sock facility to support our continuing growth in socks, in the mass market channel of fiscal 2009. It is intended that the new sock facility will also be located in Honduras. The capital cost of the new facility to be expended over the next 12 to 24 months is estimated at approximately $40 million. Finally, we continue to have significant unused debt capacity and cash flow to finance our working capital and capital expenditure requirements to support our organic growth strategy and future capacity expansions. After financing our major capital expenditure program and capacity expansion projects in fiscal 2007 and 2008, we expect to end fiscal 2008 with no net debt and close to $100 million of cash and cash equivalents, which we will plan to reinvest in new high returning growth opportunities for the Company. At this point operator, I will turn the call back to you to invite questions from participants. Question and Answer