Laurence G. Sellyn
Analyst · GMP Securities
Good afternoon. This afternoon, we reported our results for our first fiscal quarter, which were in line with our guidance provided in December. We also reconfirmed our sales and EPS guidance for the full 2012 fiscal year, and initiated guidance for the upcoming second quarter of the fiscal year. This was our first quarter for which we have provided segmented business unit reporting. We are now managing our screenprint and retail divisions as separate operating divisions with decentralized accountability for operating income and return capital. The 2 segments will be reported as Printwear and Branded Apparel instead of screenprint and retail. In addition, this is our first quarter of financial reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards instead of Canadian GAAP. This evening's press release includes quarterly and annual sales and operating income for fiscal 2011 by operating segment. Also, we have made available on our website our fiscal 2001 quarterly and full year results under IFRS. There are no material adjustments to our fiscal 2011 financial statements due to the changeover to IFRS. The only adjustment to highlight is that the transaction cost for the acquisition of Gold Toe Moretz, which were incurred in fiscal 2011, are reported as a charge against earnings under IFRS and not capitalized as goodwill, which was the accounting treatment last year under Canadian GAAP. Our net loss for the first quarter was $0.38 per share compared with our December forecast of approximately $0.40 per share. Net selling prices for Printwear were slightly higher than projected in December, due to lower-than-projected promotional discounting in the month of December. The loss in the first quarter compared to adjusted net earnings of $0.30 per share in the first quarter of fiscal 2011. The first quarter loss was due to the following factors: Number one, we continued to consume inventories during the first quarter, which had been previously manufactured with peak cost cotton. Our average cotton cost during the first quarter was slightly more than double our cost of cotton in the first quarter of last year. The higher cotton cost in the quarter, compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2011, negatively impacted EPS by close to $0.45 a share. The second factor was the selling prices in Printwear were reduced during the first quarter to align with current cotton futures, initially through short-term promotions and eventually through a formal reduction in gross selling prices, which was announced in early December. Selling prices in the Branded Apparel division, which have remained largely unchanged during the course of fiscal 2011, were increased at the end of the fiscal year in order to reflect current cotton future costs. In anticipation of the above selling price reductions in Printwear, U.S. wholesale distributors delayed replenishment of their inventories and supply demand from screenprinters by defeating inventory levels. Distributors were able to operate with lower inventories in the first quarter, as the first quarter is the lowest seasonal quarter for Printwear sales. This destocking of distributor inventories resulted in close to a 40% reduction in Gildan's unit sales in the first quarter and was significantly more impactful than the 3.9% decline in screenprinter demand compared to the first quarter of last year. The decline in Gildan's unit sales volumes due to distributor destocking and lower industry demand was partially offset by our higher market share compared to the first quarter of last year and our higher shipments to Europe and other international markets. Lower Printwear sales volumes, compared to last year, reduced EPS in the first quarter by close to $0.25 a share. In addition, the inventory destocking by U.S. distributors negatively impacted percentage gross margins in the first quarter, as promotional discounts in the quarter were largely based on shipments of Gildan products from distributors to screenprinters, which significantly exceeded shipments into the channel. Due to the distributor destocking in the quarter, inventories of Gildan products in the channel represented only 45% of total distributor inventories compared with our market share in the quarter of over 60%. Next, the benefit of the Printwear selling price reduction announced in December was applied to distributor inventories, resulting in a special distributor inventory devaluation discount in the first quarter of approximately $0.16 per share. And finally, an extended manufacturing shutdown was taken in December to manage Printwear inventory levels. The impact of the shutdown on EPS in the first quarter was approximately $0.07 per share. These factors resulted in a segmented operating loss of $31 million in the first quarter for the Printwear business, which has historically been highly profitable. However, the Branded Apparel business generated operating income of $2.4 million in the first quarter compared with an operating loss of $6.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2011, in spite of the impact of consuming inventories manufactured with higher-cost cotton. The improved results for Branded Apparel were due to the benefit of selling price increases implemented in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, improved sock manufacturing efficiencies and the accretion from the acquisition of Gold Toe Moretz. Results for Branded Apparel are expected to continue to improve due to the benefits of projected lower cost cotton after the second quarter of the fiscal year, combined with continuing manufacturing efficiencies as we complete the ramp-up of our Honduran sock manufacturing and the integration plan for Gold Toe. In addition, SG&A expenses for the Branded Apparel division reflect the sales, distribution and administrative infrastructure, which has been put in place to support the long-term development of the business and to pursue the company's retail branding strategy, as well as duplication of certain SG&A expenses due to the acquisition of Gold Toe Moretz. Over time, we expect SG&A expenses for Branded Apparel to be more in line with sales revenues in spite of the increased expenses to develop the Gildan and Gold Toe brands for retail. We have provided EPS guidance of approximately $0.20 a share for Q2 on projected sales revenues for the quarter of close to $500 million. Higher year-over-year cotton costs are projected to negatively impact Q2 EPS by close to $0.70 per share compared to the second quarter of last year. The impact of higher cotton costs is projected to be largely offset by higher Printwear unit sales volumes in spite of an assumed 5% decline in industry demand in the U.S. distributor channel compared to the second quarter of last year. And also due to increased U.S. market share and increased penetration of international markets, higher retail selling prices, increased manufacturing efficiencies and the EPS accretion from the Gold Toe Moretz acquisition. Projected EPS for the full year is unchanged from our December guidance at approximately $1.30 per share on projected sales revenues of approximately $1.9 billion. Projected results for the second half of the year reflect the benefit of assumed significantly lower cotton costs as high-cost inventories are assumed to be fully consumed by early in the third fiscal quarter. And we are assuming that we cover the balance of our open cotton requirements for cost of sales in the fourth quarter at current cotton future costs. The other main assumptions in our guidance for the second half of the fiscal year are: One, no recovery in overall industry shipments in the U.S. distributor channel. Our guidance reflects the assumption of a 5% year-over-year decline in industry shipments in the second quarter, and industry shipments in the second half of the year are assumed to be flat compared with the low base in the second half of fiscal 2011 when demand declined by approximately 8% compared with the second half of 2010. Secondly, market share in the U.S. wholesale distributor channel is expected to be approximately 65% for the balance of the fiscal year. Three, industry pricing in Printwear in the balance of the year is assumed to be slightly lower than in the first quarter. We believe that pricing in the Printwear market is currently aligned with cotton futures. In addition, the industry has experienced inflation in labor, energy and other input costs. However, there is no assurance that irrational pricing and further promotional discounting will not occur, which is not reflected in our guidance. As indicated in the press release, every 1% change in industry pricing impacts Gildan EPS for the balance of the fiscal year by approximately $0.09 per share. And fourthly, selling price increases for retailers, which were implemented late in 2011 are projected to be retained as price increases are in line with current cotton futures. We're continuing to make good progress in ramping up Rio Nance V, which will become our lowest cost facility for the manufacturer of activewear and underwear. Rio Nance V is expected to be fully ramped up by the end of the fiscal year, resulting in additional production capacity and significant further manufacturing cost efficiencies in fiscal 2013. We are also projecting increasing cost efficiencies in our sock manufacturing, as we complete the ramp-up of our new sock facilities in Honduras and realize projected synergies from the integration of Gold Toe. In addition, our investment in biomass is expected to provide further manufacturing cost efficiencies in fiscal 2013. In order to manage the pace of capacity expansion, we are temporarily retiring Rio Nance I at the end of the second fiscal quarter. We're evaluating plans for the modernization of certain equipment at Rio Nance I, which would result in further manufacturing cost reductions at such time as the capacity comes back onstream. Capital expenditures for fiscal 2012 are still planned to total approximately $100 million, and we are still projecting to generate free cash flow of $75 million to $100 million for the full fiscal year. We project to continue to utilize cash in the second fiscal quarter and generate significant free cash flow in the second half of the fiscal year. In spite of the decline in our share price in December when we initiated our earnings guidance for fiscal 2012, we have not yet used our normal course issuer bid to repurchase shares in fiscal 2012 in order to conserve cash and maintain our financing capacity and flexibility to pursue our ongoing growth strategy. We also announced today our regular quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, which will be payable on March 19 to shareholders of record on February 23, 2012.