Jeff Harmening
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Jason, this is Jeff, and I think that’s an excellent question. I think it’s also a really important one, so let me start big picture and work our way back to the category initiatives you talked about. Big picture, we see in Nielsen data and certainly I have heard from a lot of our retailers over the last month in my direct conversation with them, is that we see prices deflationary, or the inflation reducing in the store over the course of the last quarter or so. As we look, and Ken shared with you earlier, as we look at the items in grocery that contain the UPC code, we have about half a percent growth - I think it’s 0.4%. A big portion of that is really reduction in egg pricing from a year ago, so if you strip out the pricing on eggs, it’s about 1% inflation, which is pretty consistent with the last couple of quarters. So we had the flu last year and the price of eggs was really high, and it’s a lot lower now, so that accounts for a lot I’ve also heard from a lot of retailers about deflation in other parts non-UPC, so the perimeter of the store in things like dairy and meat, but what we’re seeing in our categories really is about 2.5% price appreciation in the first quarter, and that’s what we’re seeing in our Nielsen in our categories as well. So as we look--and we’ve seen quite good price discipline in the vast majority of our categories, and there’s no reason for us to think that that won’t continue going forward. Certainly as we look to our SRM initiatives, we’re gaining increased confidence that those are going to be effective. When we talk to retailers about our pricing and what we’re going to do with our foundation brands, we find a pretty receptive audience, to be honest, and the first fact is that 75% of our business is growth and 25% foundational, so we start with that. Within the foundational brands, our retailers are looking for a little bit of inflation, so to the extent that they see deflation in some areas, a little bit of inflation in other areas isn’t such a bad thing. They key to that really is to bring some level of investment to the category in other forms, so I’ve talked about it before but it’s really important in that Progresso is going to be about antibiotic-free chicken and on Pillsbury, it’s a new shelf set, as well as improving the quality of our products, so we’re making investments in other ways and our retailers are really receptive to that. So we’re not just milking these businesses but managing for cash, the really foundation businesses, and when we see good opportunities for investment in things other than pricing, we’re doing those.