Earnings Labs

Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (GLRE)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 7, 2008

$18.77

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the Greenlight Capital Re second quarter 2008 earnings conference call. Joining us on the call this morning is David Einhorn, Chairman; Len Goldberg, Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Courtis, Chief Financial Officer. The company reminds you that forward-looking statements that may be made in this call are intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical facts but rather reflect the company's current expectations, estimates, and predictions about future results and events, and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007, and other documents filed by the company with the SEC. If one or more risks or uncertainties materialize or if the company's underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from what the company projects. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Today's call is being recorded. All lines are in a listen-only mode and you will be given opportunity to ask questions following the company's remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Len Goldberg.

Len Goldberg

Management

Thank you and good morning. My name is Len Goldberg, Chief Executive Officer of Greenlight Re. Thank you for taking the time to join us this morning. The second quarter of 2008 continued to present the same challenges as the first quarter, namely a softening insurance and reinsurance market, combined with turbulent financial markets. We generated net income of $33.5 million in the quarter or $0.92 per share on a fully diluted basis. Our book value over the last 12 months has increased by 9.4%. Given the current environment, we are pleased with this result, given we are still ramping up our reinsurance operations and the volatile equity markets. Gross written premiums for the second quarter decreased significantly from the second quarter of 2007. One major difference was a multi-year severity account rebound in the second quarter of last year that will be earning premiums in the next three years, but had no additional recorded written premium in the second quarter. The second major impact is that exposures on the 2008 contracts we have been on generally appear to becoming in lower than expected. If we were rooting for top line growth, we might be disappointed. However, it appears that a good number of our clients are protecting their interests and ours in a softening market; more on this later. On the assets side, we generated positive results in a difficult quarter. Before discussing our second quarter performance in greater detail, I want to introduce our Chairman, David Einhorn, who will discuss our overall progress and recent investment results. David?

David Einhorn

Management

Thanks, Lenny. First of all, I want to thank everyone who was able to join us at our first ever Investor Day in June. The Investor Day was well attended and we were able to further elaborate on our business strategy and progress to date. If you were not able to attend, you can find a replay of the event at the Greenlight Re Web site. During the second quarter, the Greenlight Re investment account returned 4.5%. This brings our cumulative return from the investment portfolio to 3.6% for the first six months of the year during a period where the S&P declined 11.9%. The portfolio performed well during the quarter in light of the challenging investment environment. The portfolio benefited from being long on few energy stocks and being short credit-sensitive financial and it was hurt primarily by some long financial exposure in consumer-sensitive needs. Overall, the portfolio performed well while having average net long exposure for the quarter of 39%. While our goal is to preserve capital in difficult environment and generate attractive risk-adjusted absolute returns, there are environments where this goal is more difficult to achieve. The current market poses real challenges to our strategy. It creates headwinds for our results. Momentum driven markets where cheap stocks get cheaper and expensive stocks with questionable prospects rise follow the difficulty to our value-oriented investment strategy. In our view, US markets are tenuous right now, if not downright scary. The market in the individual securities that comprise it are moving quickly and seem to be somewhat disconnected from fundamentals. The good news is that many stocks are cheap. The bad news is that cheap stocks can get even cheaper. In times like these, we find it helpful to remind our investors and ourselves that we are focused on building…

Len Goldberg

Management

Thank you, David. On our last call, we talked extensively about how we measure catastrophe exposure and how important it is to look past the 99 percentile of the bell curve in managing and preserving capital. Our aggregate natural catastrophe exposures have continued to track slightly downward over the last several quarters. Currently, we are still writing peak exposure retrocessional covers for a select group of clients and the pricing on this portfolio is holding up well. The largest of these contracts require multiple losses in order to attach to our cover, so there is some additional protection for us against a single sharp loss. We will continue to reduce natural catastrophe exposure if we believe that pricing and terms are not adequate. For those of you that attended our June 3 Investor Day, our President and Chief Underwriting Officer, Bart Hedges, presented a couple of general examples of the types of deals that we found attractive and unattractive. One of Greenlight Re’s philosophies that Bart discussed is that we like to write specialty business with experts where we believe we can align our interests with the client. This is a core part of our strategy, the effects of which are becoming apparent in the second quarter of this year. When we write frequency business through specialty carriers or underwriting managers, we are upfront with them, but we expect to only reimburse them for their expenses and reward them should the business generate positive economics. We do this because frequency business is lower margin business and one dead account can offset the profits of a number of good accounts. Because of our approach, we create rare profit sharing incentives for our clients, the direct result of which is that it protects their balance sheet and ours by writing less inadequately…

Tim Courtis

Management

Thanks, Lenny. Greenlight Re reported net income of $33.5 million for the second quarter of 2008 compared to net income of $21.3 million for the comparable period in 2007. On a fully diluted per-share basis, the profits for the three months ended June 30, 2008 was $0.92 per share compared to $0.76 per share for the second quarter of 2007. For the six months ended June 30, 2008, net income was $28.8 million compared to $8.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2007. On a fully diluted per-share basis, net income was $0.79 per share compared to $0.33 per share for the comparable period in 2007. For the second quarter of 2008, frequency business accounted for 82% of our gross written premiums which is consistent with the overall emphasis we placed on this business. As mentioned in previous quarters, for quota share frequency business, it takes longer for the ultimate premium on these contracts to be recorded. Due to our preference to write a small number of larger transactions, we expect that our mix of business between frequency and severity will fluctuate. Premiums written during the second quarter of $25.4 million was down from $65.4 million of premium written during the second quarter of 2007. Lenny has mentioned a couple of reasons for this decrease. One other item of note is that premium from a large Florida homeowners quota share transaction which we wrote in 2007 was reduced by $4 million in the current quarter due to a significant number of policy cancellations. We do not believe this will materially affect the ultimate profitability on those accounts. The composite ratio for our frequency business for the first six months of 2008 was 92.0% and 52.9 % for severity business, resulting in an overall composite ratio of 77.8%. This…

Len Goldberg

Management

Thanks, Tim. The second quarter of 2008 continued the progress of Greenlight Re. Our reinsurance portfolio is beginning to mature and we are pleased thus far with the results. We have written a select number of contracts with properly aligned incentives and have picked some very good partners who are protecting our capital allowing us transact successfully in an increasingly difficult market. Thanks again to everyone who participated in our Investor Day. We had a great time meeting everyone and we hope that we were able to provide some useful information. And now, we would like to open the call up to questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Jim Bradshaw with Bares Capital Management. Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Good morning. Congratulations on a nice quarter there. I was wondering if you could go into a little more detail about, you mentioned a number of variables as far as the buyback and when you would start to do some of that and just kind of how you think about that versus other uses of cash?

Len Goldberg

Management

Yes. I don't think that one should expect that we would be getting repurchases and stock over time by any stretch of the imagination, but we want to have the flexibility in the case that market mistreats the stock in a way that we think creates an opportunity for the company to opportunistically repurchase shares from time to time. Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Okay. So you don't see yourself getting very aggressive certainly currently?

Len Goldberg

Management

I'm not going to speculate exactly what it means – what I just said in great particulars because it will depend on whatever the facts and circumstances. But this is not a program where you look at it and you say, "Geez, there is $2 million shares that are authorized so it's over 12 quarters, so we would expect to purchase X number of shares in any particular quarter." Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Okay, all right. And then could you guys just talk briefly about what you're seeing competitive wise in the captive area?

Len Goldberg

Management

As far as providing the insurance to captives? Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Yes.

Len Goldberg

Management

Captive purchasing is – there's a broad array of reasons for purchasing the insurance and those that are commoditized purchasers are able to find the reinsurance cheaper. We've been very lucky to find a small number of captive partners. We are looking for more of a long-term partnership. Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Okay. So you think things seem to be going – progressing pretty well there?

Len Goldberg

Management

We think we are making some real headway into the Cayman captive market. It does require them to change their purchasing methodologies, because most do purchase currently in other markets besides Cayman but we are making some good headway. Jim Bradshaw – Bares Capital Management: Great. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Good morning everybody. A couple of quick numbers questions here. First, Len, could you give us an update of which your NPL is (inaudible)?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Good morning everybody. A couple of quick numbers questions here. First, Len, could you give us an update of which your NPL is (inaudible)?

Len Goldberg

Management

I'm sorry. Brian, that was – it was hard to (inaudible).

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

I’m sorry, can you hear me now?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

I’m sorry, can you hear me now?

Len Goldberg

Management

Yes, you are just a little fuzzy, go ahead.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

I'm sorry. I was wondering if you could provide us what's your maximum loss is over cap, you used to typically provide that to us every quarter?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

I'm sorry. I was wondering if you could provide us what's your maximum loss is over cap, you used to typically provide that to us every quarter?

Len Goldberg

Management

Sure, we're just looking into Q4 (inaudible) I'm sorry.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Okay, and then the other one, I was wondering, how much were reserve releases in the quarter? I know you mentioned they were immaterial for the six months, but was there anything in the quarter?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Okay, and then the other one, I was wondering, how much were reserve releases in the quarter? I know you mentioned they were immaterial for the six months, but was there anything in the quarter?

Len Goldberg

Management

We had a large reserve at least in the quarter on that harmonious account that Tim talked about but that does have a large profit sharing. As we mentioned in the call, we do like to buy an interest so there is a big reserve release in the quarter on that account, but the net effect on our balance sheet was relatively small.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks guys.

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks guys.

Len Goldberg

Management

As far as the single loss events, the maximum average in any single loss is just under $52 million.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

$52 million. Okay, great. And then, Len, could you talk a little more about – I'm just curious, the contract that you said that you had the $4 million – I guess reduction in premium from a lot of cancellations in the quarter, homeowners company, was it that the company just decided to pull out of the homeowners business or – I'm just a little confused as to what had happened there?

UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS.

$52 million. Okay, great. And then, Len, could you talk a little more about – I'm just curious, the contract that you said that you had the $4 million – I guess reduction in premium from a lot of cancellations in the quarter, homeowners company, was it that the company just decided to pull out of the homeowners business or – I'm just a little confused as to what had happened there?

Len Goldberg

Management

It's just some of the bunch of individual decisions from the homeowners themselves. A lot of them wind up canceling their cover and maybe they sold their house, maybe they found cheaper coverage elsewhere, but they had more late cancellations than we anticipated because it was a large account. The effect was actually quite large in the quarter.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Got you. And then, David, I'm curious, you are talking about how your short position now is on a gross basis the largest, I guess, it has ever been. Where did you increase your kind of short exposure in your portfolio, was it with the financials area?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Got you. And then, David, I'm curious, you are talking about how your short position now is on a gross basis the largest, I guess, it has ever been. Where did you increase your kind of short exposure in your portfolio, was it with the financials area?

David Einhorn

Management

Financial and outsource.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Financials and outsource. So you're still pretty bears with respect to credit?

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Financials and outsource. So you're still pretty bears with respect to credit?

David Einhorn

Management

Indeed, yes.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS.

Okay. Thanks.

UBS

Analyst · UBS.

Okay. Thanks.

David Einhorn

Management

You're welcome.

Len Goldberg

Management

Thanks Brian.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Sir, at this time, there are no further questions.

Len Goldberg

Management

(inaudible)

Operator

Operator

If you have any followup questions, please direct them to Alex Stanton of Stanton Crenshaw Communications at 212-780-1900 and he will be happy to assist you. We also remind you that a replay of this call and other pertinent information about Greenlight RE is available on our website at www.greenlightre.ky. Thank you. You may now disconnect.