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Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (GLRE)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Sat, Oct 31, 2015

$18.77

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining the Greenlight Re Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2015 Earnings. Joining us on the call this morning are David Einhorn, Chairman; Bart Hedges, Chief Executive Officer; Tim Courtis, Chief Financial Officer; and Jim McNichols, Chief Actuarial Officer. [Operator Instructions]. The Company reminds you that forward-looking statements that may be made in this call are intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical facts, but rather reflect the Company's current expectations, estimates and predictions about future results and events are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including those enumerated in the Company's Form 10-K dated February 17 of 2015 and other documents filed by the Company with the SEC. If one or more risks or uncertainties materialize or if the Company's underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from what the Company projects. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bart Hedges. Please go ahead, sir.

Bart Hedges

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for taking the time to join us today. In the third quarter of 2015 Greenlight Re generated a loss on both our underwriting and investment portfolios. The underwriting loss was driven by reserve adjustment on one contract in run-off and the investment loss was driven primarily by poor performance on three of our largest long positions. Overall, our fully diluted adjusted book value per share decreased by approximately 20% from the prior quarter-end. During the third quarter of 2015 we reported an underwriting loss before general and administrative expenses of $27.6 million compared to underwriting income of $4 million during the third quarter of 2014. Underwriting loss was primarily due to adverse development on a contract in run-off which I will discuss in detail. The third quarter is a fairly quiet quarter for new business. However written and earned premiums continued to grow quarter over quarter which is an indication that we're converting our pipeline opportunities to new business despite the challenging underwriting environment. There were no significant property catastrophe events in the quarter and thus our catastrophe accounts continued to perform well. With respect to our property catastrophe aggregate, our maximum exposure to a single event is currently $210.4 million and our maximum exposure to all events is $243.8 million. Our catastrophe aggregates remained relatively stable during the third quarter. As a reminder, we measure our aggregates as the maximum amount of limit available less the amount of reinstatement premiums due. We do not use a model of probable maximum loss or PML approach. Between 2008 and 2011 we supported two MGAs that wrote general liability for contractors and subcontractors. The reserve charge of this quarter of $36.9 million relates to the construction defect exposure for one of these contracts. Last quarter, we made…

David Einhorn

Analyst

Thanks, Bart and good morning everyone. The Greenlight Re investment portfolio lost 14.2% in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date return to minus 16.9%. Our biggest detractors in the quarter were long investments in CONSOL Energy and SunEdison. We continue to hold positions in both companies and believe that each was traded at a price that severely understates the fundamental value of the business. A number of our other longs including Apple, AerCap, Chicago Bridge & Iron and General Motors also sold off during the quarter on worries about the impact of a slowdown in emerging markets. CONSOL Energy's stock price dropped 55% in the third quarter, far outpacing the drop in coal and natural gas prices. The market remains rapidly focused on the near-term prospects for Appalachian coal and natural gas and is overly discounting the Company's long-term resource value. CONSOL's management is taking measures to improve operational efficiency while growing its production. Even at current depressed commodity prices, we expect the company will be cash flow breakeven or better from here as the management team is focused on cost cutting and reducing CapEx without sacrificing production. A number of factors contributed to SunEdison's stock price collapse in the third quarter. Just as investor appetite for energy dividend flow through structures began to vain, SunEdison launched the IPO of TerraForm Global, a yield-co created to purchase emerging markets' projects. As the share price of both SunEdison and its related yield vehicles fell, the company effectively lost access to the capital markets and the market worried that SunEdison could run out of money in the absence of a natural buyer for its projects. We think the sell-off is overdone; SunEdison management has adjusted its strategy in response to the falling stock price. The company has raised additional equity, identified a…

Tim Courtis

Analyst

Thanks, David. For the third quarter of 2015, Greenlight Re reported a net loss of $219.7 million compared to a net loss of $51.8 million for the comparable period in 2014. The net loss per share was $5.98 for the third quarter of 2015 compared to a net loss per share of $1.40 for the same period in 2014. For the nine months ended September 30, 2015, we reported a net loss of $283.3 million compared to net income of $48.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2014. The net loss per share was $7.73 for the nine months ended September 30, 2015 compared to net income of $1.29 per share on a fully-diluted basis for the same period in 2014. Gross premiums written were $357.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2015, an increase of 43% from gross premiums written of $249.8 million during the first nine months of 2014. Our net earned premiums for the first nine months of 2015 increased by approximately 3% to $288.5 million when compared with premiums earned during the same period in 2014. Over the next 12 months we expect to experience similar growth in earned premiums that we experienced in written premiums as the premium from our new frequency business is earned. The composite ratio for our frequency business for the first nine months of 2015 was 115.3% compared to a composite ratio of 98.3% during the comparable period in 2014. As Bart described, this year we have increased reserves by $51.6 million on two contracts in run-off with construction defect exposure. These reserve increases accounted for an increase of approximately 19 points on the frequency composite ratio. For our severity business, our composite ratio was 46.7%. Overall our composite ratio for the first nine months of 2015…

Bart Hedges

Analyst

Thanks, Tim. While reserve increases on certain run-off contracts have been incredibly frustrating. We remain optimistic about our current underwriting portfolio. Our goals remain unchanged. We aim to build long-term shareholder value by writing a concentrated underwriting portfolio with the best risk adjusted returns we can find and to utilize the float generated from these contracts to invest in our value oriented, long short investment program as investment approach has historically generated superior returns with less volatilities in the overall equity markets. We will continue to strive to execute on both our underwriting and investment strategy and will remain focused on driving our key yardstick increased fully diluted book value per share. We appreciate your continued confidence in Greenlight Re. Thank you again for your time and now we would like to open up the call to questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We have a question from Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead.

Brian Meredith

Analyst

I have got a couple of questions here. First on, Bart, I'm just curious with the investment performance and with A.M. Best at least the outlook changed, what kind of feedback are you getting from reinsurance brokers right now and clients?

Bart Hedges

Analyst

I had an opportunity to attend a recent industry conference just earlier this week, the PCI Conference and there's lots of brokers and clients and prospective clients that attend that. And I guess I was pleasantly surprised that people that we work with now, our current partners and brokers, understand it. They also acknowledge that we have a very strong capital position for the Company. And as an offshore reinsurance company, a lot of those if they are U.S. clients, they would be sitting on collaterals that we provide for statutory reasons as well as the rating of the balance sheet. So I don't sense a lot of difficulty with existing clients. When I was speaking to brokers and other people about new business, there will be will be additional headwinds, there's no doubt about it, but I think we'll only really feel that -- or we will feel that most on things that are most rating sensitive and a lot of the business that we do is not terribly rating sensitive. So for instance, Florida homeowners business or non-standard automobile business, employer stop-loss business, even a lot of the cat business. That's not terribly rating sensitive. I think some other things in the portfolio maybe a little bit more challenge for new business. But overall, I thought it was pretty well received.

Brian Meredith

Analyst

And then the next question, you talked about the current portfolio, I think it's performing pretty well. I am just noticing here that where you are booking your [indiscernible] combined ratios actually got underlying for the last couple of quarters is call it 101%, 102% range. Is that kind of where you're targeting and would you be happy with those types of levels?

Bart Hedges

Analyst

No, I'm not sure I get your 101%, 102% and I don't have that number handy here. I think that when I think about the portfolio and what kinds of combined ratios, we would be targeting, it's going to be high 90%s kinds of numbers, 97%, 98%, 99% are numbers that I think would be representative of the all-in costs of doing the business. But you have to put that into perspective of the kinds of business that we target. A lot of this very frequency oriented business is low profit margin because it should be fairly low volatility. So on a risk adjusted basis for us to make 3, 4 points net of all expenses that generally works out to be a pretty good deal for us. And I think as a long-term goal I would think about this with the current portfolio and in the current environment as kind of a high 90%s kind of combined ratio business.

Brian Meredith

Analyst

And when you are talking, are you talking more technical ratio or are you talking actual all-in expenses? That's what I am looking at is the G&A expenses, you actually have on a consolidated basis as well when I get to the one--

Bart Hedges

Analyst

No, I'm talking I'll call it the Greenlight combined ratio calculation, so all in G&A plus composite ratio.

Brian Meredith

Analyst

And then my last question, I know there's been some hearings recently on PSEC in Congress, potential changes and stuff. Any thoughts on that?

Bart Hedges

Analyst

Brian, I am going to ask Tim to chime in on that one.

Tim Courtis

Analyst

Yes, Brian, as you can appreciate we have been following that very closely and the Reinsurance Association of America has been doing a lot of good work on that and we're a member of that organization. And following the proceedings along, certainly it seems that the path seems to be going towards some form a bright line test. And I guess the real question is what will be the ultimate bright line test. Given the current development in our portfolio, we feel confident that even any reasonable bright line test we will be able to meet. And so, yes, obviously it's of interest to it and we're following it closely. We don't believe it should be a problem for us given our current portfolio.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question and answer session. Should you have any follow-up questions, please direct them to Garrett Edson of ICR at 203-682-8331 and he will be happy to assist you. We also remind you that a replay of this call and other pertinent information about Greenlight Re is available on our website at www.greenlightre.ky. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.