Daniel Ammann
Analyst · John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Dan. On Slide 4 we provide a summary of our third quarter 2012 GAAP and non-GAAP results. Net revenue was $37.6 billion, a $900 million increase from the prior year. Included in this was a $1.3 billion negative impact year-over-year due to FX translation. Operating income was $1.6 billion for the quarter. Net income to common stockholders was $1.5 billion, down $200 million from 2011. This decline was more than accounted for by an effective tax rate of about 20% in the third quarter compared to less than 6% from the prior year. Earnings per share was $0.89 on a diluted basis compared to $1.03 from the same period in the prior year, and automotive net cash from operating activities was $3.1 billion. At the bottom of the page, for our non-GAAP metrics, EBIT-adjusted was $2.3 billion for the third quarter, $100 million improvement from the prior year. The EBIT-adjusted margin was 6.1%, up slightly, reflecting solid margin expansion outside of GM Europe. Automotive free cash flow was $1.2 billion, up significantly from the prior year. Moving on to Slide 5. This quarter we had a $100 million special item for the impairment of goodwill in GM Korea. This charge reduced earnings per share by $0.04 on a fully diluted basis. On Slide 6, we provide the EBIT-adjusted by region for the third quarters of 2011 and 2012. GMNA's EBIT-adjusted was $1.8 billion. GME had an EBIT-adjusted loss of $500 million. GMIO had EBIT-adjusted of $700 million. And in South America, EBIT-adjusted was $100 million for the quarter. GM Financial had earnings before tax of $200 million, a small increase from the prior year. Corporate sector and eliminations was a $100 million expense. This nets to an EBIT-adjusted of $2.3 billion for the third quarter of 2012, up $100 million from the same period in 2011. Slide 7 shows our consolidated EBIT-adjusted for the last 5 quarters. At the bottom of the slide, our GAAP operating income margin was 4.3% for the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point decline from Q3 of 2011. Our EBIT-adjusted margin was 6.1%, a 0.1 percentage point improvement from the prior year. Our global production numbers are 16,000 units higher than the third quarter of 2011 and our global market share was 11.6%, a 0.5 percentage point decline from last year but relatively consistent over the last 4 quarters. On Slide 8, we provide an explanation of the $100 million increase in year-over-year EBIT-adjusted for the third quarter. Our EBIT-adjusted was $2.2 billion for Q3 2011. Volume was $300 million favorable. Mix was unfavorable $500 million, largely attributable to changes in the car/truck mix in GM North America. Price was $600 million favorable for the quarter, due to the strength of our new product introductions and continued pricing discipline on the vehicles that we've launched in prior years. Total costs were up $300 million, which includes a $200 million reduction in pension income as well as unfavorable policy and warranty adjustments of $300 million for the quarter, offset with favorable material cost performance. Additionally, as proof of our ongoing cost controls, SG&A was down year-over-year while revenues were higher. This totals to $2.3 billion for Q3 of 2012. We now move onto our segment results with the key performance indicators for North America on Slide 9. For the third quarter of 2012, our U.S. total share was 17.6%, down 2.1 percentage points versus the prior year, when many of our competitors still had supply disruptions due to the natural disasters in Japan. Our incentive levels on an absolute basis have increased $130 per vehicle from the prior year period. On a percentage of ATP basis, our incentives for the quarter were 10.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from the prior year. This puts us at 107% of industry average levels for the third quarter of 2012. On Slide 10, we show GMNA's EBIT-adjusted for the last 5 quarters. At the bottom of the slide, revenue was $23.3 billion, up $1.4 billion from 2011. GMNA's EBIT-adjusted margin was 7.8% for the third quarter, down 2.2 percentage points from the prior year. Our U.S. dealer inventory has been declining from the first quarter and is down to 689,000 units. This translates to 82 days' supply versus a 67-day supply at the end of Q3 2011. Full-size pickup truck inventory was approximately 242,000 units as of September 30, 2012, and 209,000 on the same date in 2011. We've adjusted our expectations for year-end dealer inventory to be in the range of 660,000 to 670,000 units from the previously forecasted 650,000. GMNA production was 763,000 units for the quarter, a 23,000 vehicle increase from the prior year. And GMNA market share was 16.9% for the quarter, 1.9 percentage points lower than the prior year, again due to the supply-chain challenges in 2011 at some of our competitors. Turning to Slide 11. We provide the explanation of the $400 million year-over-year decline in GMNA's EBIT-adjusted. EBIT-adjusted was $2.2 billion for the third quarter of 2011. Volume was favorable $300 million. Mix was unfavorable $400 million, due primarily to lower production of full-size trucks and utilities and increased production of small and compact cars. Price was $300 million favorable. Costs were $300 million unfavorable, due largely to $200 million unfavorable pension income and $300 million in unfavorable policy and warranty adjustments, partially offset with $200 million in favorable material and freight costs. Other was $400 million unfavorable, due to the absence of $300 million in Canadian dollar foreign exchange gains in 2011 and the absence of a $100 million favorable lease adjustment in 2011. This totals to an EBIT-adjusted of $1.8 billion for the third quarter of 2012. Relative to our earlier expectations, Q3 GMNA out-performance for the quarter was a function of out-performance with respect to price and material cost and some modest element of engineering expense retiming. On Slide 12, GME reported an EBIT-adjusted loss of $500 million for the third quarter, a deterioration of $200 million from the prior year. At the bottom of the slide, revenue was $5.1 billion for the quarter, down $1.1 billion from the prior year. Of this decline, approximately $500 million was due to FX translation as a result of weaker Eurozone currencies. The EBIT-adjusted margin in the region was negative 9.4%. GME's production for the quarter was 196,000 units, 27% less than the prior year, as we adjusted production to reduce company inventory. In fact, we reduced finished goods inventory by about 22,000 units or $400 million from the second quarter of 2012. This contributed to GME being slightly positive from a cash flow perspective for the quarter. GME's market share in the region was 8.6%, a 0.2-percentage-point decline from 2011. On Slide 13, we provide the major components of GME's $200 million year-over-year decline in EBIT-adjusted. Volume was $100 million unfavorable, due to a reduction of 35,000 wholesale units. Mix and price were also each $100 million unfavorable. The challenges in these market-driven items illustrate that we must continue to win with new product introductions to be successful in turning around the business in Europe. Cost was $100 million favorable because of material cost performance. This totals to GME's EBIT-adjusted loss of $500 million for the third quarter of 2012. Moving on to GMIO. On Slide 14 we show the region's EBIT-adjusted for the most recent periods, including the equity income from our joint ventures. GMIO posted EBIT-adjusted of $700 million in the third quarter, including equity income of $400 million. At the bottom of the slide, GMIO's revenue from our consolidated operations was $6.7 billion, up $600 million from the prior year despite an unfavorable impact of $300 million from FX translation. GMIO's EBIT-adjusted margin from consolidated operations was 4.4%, a full 5-percentage-point increase from the prior year and our fourth straight quarter of improved performance. Our China JV net income margins decreased 0.8 percentage points from a strong performance in Q3 2011 to 9.7% in the current period. GMIO's total production for the quarter was up 88,000 units from the prior year due to increases in both our joint venture and consolidated operations. Market share in the region was 9.4% for the third quarter, a year-over-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points. Our market share in China was 14.4% for the quarter, equal to the performance in the prior year and up 0.7 percentage points year-to-date. Turning to Slide 15. We provide the major components of GMIO's $300 million increase in EBIT-adjusted. The impact of volume was $100 million favorable. Mix was $200 million unfavorable due to increased production of small and compact cars with lower margins. Price was $200 million favorable due to the strong performance of both our new and older products. Cost was flat for the quarter, reflecting our cost discipline. Other was $200 million favorable due to a net gain from the acquisition of India operations and some favorable foreign exchange. This totals GMIO's third quarter 2012 EBIT-adjusted of $700 million. On Slide 16, we move onto the GM South America region and look at EBIT-adjusted for the last 5 quarters. At the bottom of the slide, revenue was $4.3 billion, a $100 million decline from 2011. However, FX translation was a negative impact of $500 million on revenue in the quarter. The EBIT-adjusted margin in the region was 2.6%, a 3.6-percentage-point improvement from the same period in the prior year where we posted a loss, reflecting the discipline and focus we brought to improving margins in this part of our business. GMSA's production was 222,000 units, down 21,000 units from the third quarter of 2011. Market share in the region was 17.9% in the quarter, a 0.8-percentage-point decline from the prior year. This loss of share in the market was due entirely to our older product offerings, as our recent product launches have gained an average of 9 percentage points share in their respective segments. On Slide 17, we look at the components of the change in year-over-year performance in South America. Volume was $100 million unfavorable. Mix was 200 favorable -- $200 million favorable, due entirely to higher margins for our recent product launches, including the Cruze and the S10 pickup. Price was $100 million favorable, due to actions we're taking in Venezuela and Argentina to offset inflation. Cost was unfavorable $100 million and other was unchanged for the quarter. This totals to $100 million in EBIT-adjusted for the quarter. Slide 18 provides our walk of automotive free cash flow for the third quarter. After adding back noncontrolling interests, preferred dividends and undistributed earnings allocated to Series B and deducting GM Financial, our automotive income was $1.7 billion for the third quarter. We had $100 million in special items, and our D&A and impairment expense was $1.5 billion. Working capital was a $500 million use of cash, due primarily to a decrease in accounts payable related to sequentially lower production in the quarter. Pension and OPEB cash payments exceeded expenses by $200 million in the quarter. Other was a $400 million source of cash, a $1.4-billion improvement from the prior year. This was largely due to differences associated with noncash P&L items, as well as accruals in terms of policy and warranty, sales incentives and taxes and expense versus cash. This totals down to automotive net cash provided by operating activities of $3.1 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion versus the third quarter of 2011. This sizable improvement in operating cash flow, even while net income was down slightly, is further evidence of the quality of earnings realized this past quarter. After deducting capital expenditures of $1.9 billion in the quarter, our automotive free cash flow is $1.2 billion, a $900 million increase from the prior year period. On Slide 19, we provide a summary of our key automotive balance sheet items. We finished the third quarter with $37.5 billion of total automotive liquidity, consisting of $31.6 billion in cash and marketable securities and $5.9 billion of available credit facilities. Our book value of debt is $5.6 billion. The $500 million increase from the second quarter is largely due to the consolidation of GM's India operations and some foreign exchange translation. Series A preferred stock remains at $5.5 billion. U.S. qualified pensions are underfunded by $13.4 billion, including the remeasurement of our U.S. salary plan, which we'll discuss momentarily. Our non-U.S. pensions are underfunded by $11.4 billion at the end of the third quarter, and our OPEB liability is $7.2 billion. Slide 20 provides a summary of our order financing activities. GM Financial reported their results this morning and will be holding an earnings conference call at noon. Our U.S. subprime penetration in the third quarter has increased over the prior year to 8.1%. Our U.S. lease penetration is 16.2% in Q3, a 4.7 percentage point increase from the prior year. Lease penetration in Canada is at 7%, down 2.4 percentage points, largely due to an industry shift to APR subventions. GM new vehicles as a percentage of GM Financial originations increased to 44%, and GM Financial's percentage of GM's U.S. consumer subprime and leasing business was 18% in the quarter. GMF's annualized net credit losses remain very low at 2.5% and earnings before tax was $200 million for the quarter, up $22 million from a year ago. Slide 21 updates the estimates of the financial impact of the salary pension transactions that we disclosed in June. We now expect to reduce our U.S. pension liability by almost $29 billion through a combination of voluntary lump sums and annuitization transactions. Of the participants who were offered a lump sum, approximately 30% have elected to receive one. Our total cash contribution to the salary plan to affect these transactions will now be approximately $2.6 billion, which is lower than our prior estimate of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion. The P&L charge in the fourth quarter is expected to be $2.9 billion pretax, and we continue to expect the ongoing unfavorable impact to pension income to be $200 million per annum. We expect to complete the transaction with Prudential in early November. Slide 22 gives a more detailed look at the year-to-date activity of the salary pension plan. The plan had liabilities, $36 billion, and was underfunded by $2.6 billion at January 1, 2012. Remeasurements of the plan deteriorated the funded status $1 billion, primarily due to a decrease in interest rates, partially offset by favorable asset returns. For the year, we expect to pay approximately $2.4 billion in benefits from the plan. The cost of reducing the obligation by $28.7 billion through a combination of annuitizations and lump sums will be $30.8 billion, resulting in a net cost of approximately 107% of the GAAP liability in order to eliminate nearly $29 billion of pension obligation. The estimated cash contribution to the plan is expected to be $2.6 billion, leaving us with a salary plan that will have a slightly more unfavorable funded status to the beginning of the year with a far more manageable total obligation. Before turning it over to Steve, I'd like to address our view of the fourth quarter on Slide 23. GM's consolidated Q4 EBIT-adjusted is expect -- is estimated to follow typical seasonal trends and will be similar to or slightly better than the same period last year. Within that, we expect those same general comments to apply to GMNA. If these positive trends continue, we may reverse a significant portion of our valuation allowance on deferred tax assets in the U.S. and Canada. This action could result in an impairment of goodwill in these countries. Lastly, excluding potential reversal of tax valuation allowances, we expect the consolidated effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be similar to the approximately 20% we had in the third quarter after adjusting for special items. Now here's Steve Girsky for an update on GM Europe.