Earnings Labs

Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 9, 2016

$14.12

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Genie Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation by Genie Energy's management, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] In this presentation, Genie Energy's management team will discuss financial and operational results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2015. Any forward-looking statements made during this conference call, either in the prepared remarks or in the Q&A session, whether general or specific in nature are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those which the company anticipates. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, specific risks and uncertainties discussed in the reports that Genie Energy files periodically with the SEC. Genie Energy assumes no obligation, either to update any forward-looking statements that they have made or may make or to update the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that they forecast. The Genie Energy earnings release is available on the Investor Relations page of the Genie Corporation website, www.genie.com. The earnings release has also been filed on a Form 8-K with SEC. Please note, this event is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Geoff Rochwarger, Genie's Vice Chairman and CEO of Genie E&P. Please go ahead, Mr. Rochwarger.

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Welcome to Genie Energy's fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. On today's call, you will again hear from three members of the company's senior management team. I will provide an update on the oil and gas exploratory operations conducted by our Afek subsidiary operating in Northern Israel. Michael Stein, the CEO of Genie Retail Energy will follow with the review of that business's operational results. And finally, Avi Goldin, Genie Energy's CFO, will discuss our financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. At the conclusion of Avi's remarks, we will take any questions you have. Let me begin by providing a quick overview of our project in Northern Israel for our new shareholders. In April 2013, Israel's National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Ministry awarded our Afek subsidiary an exclusive three-year petroleum exploration license covering 396.5 square kilometers in the southern portion of the Golan Heights. Following the license award, we initiated a multi-phased exploration program; phase 1 consisting of extensive seismic and other geophysical surveys, generated considerable evidence, support of our thesis that the license areas is highly resistant, likely containing a significant oil and gas resource. Based on these surveys and other evidence, we applied to Israel's Northern District Committee for planning and building for exploratory drilling permits. In February of 2015, the committee issued those permits for a period of one year subject to certain restrictions, and in February of this year, the committee extended the permits for two additional years. We believe this extension will provide adequate time to complete the current exploratory program given the pace of our operational progress over the past several months. We have now completed phase 2 of our exploratory program, the drilling of five exploratory wells intended to help us characterize the resource and better…

Michael Stein

Analyst

Thank you, Geoff. I'm pleased to report that Genie Retail had another solid quarter with year-over-year increases in gross meter adds, net meter adds, and RCEs. Turning to our customer base, we added 70,000 gross meters in the fourth quarter, an increase of 15,000 compared to the year ago quarter but slightly less than the 74,000 meters we added last quarter. We continue to see a strong response in the retail marketplace to our smart budget offerings to fixed rate characteristics. And these fixed rate offerings accounted for approximately 16% of our total electricity load by the quarter close. The year-over-year increase in gross meter adds was partially offset by higher level of churn than we experienced in the year ago quarter. Average monthly churn is 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to 5.9% a year ago. Our churn rate decreased sequentially from 6.7% in third quarter of 2015. Total meter served increased for the third consecutive quarter climbing to 392,000 at the end of this fourth quarter from 388,000 at the end of the prior quarter, and from 363,000 a year ago. Because we focused our acquisition efforts on dual meter and electricity-only households, our gas meter customer base has remained at 129,000, the same level as the year ago quarter and a 2,000 meter increase sequentially. Electric meters increased 264,000 from 234,000 year ago and from 261,000 at the end of the prior quarter. Total RCEs increased to 259,000 from 243,000 year ago but declined slightly from 264,000 at the end of the prior quarter. Year-over-year RCE growth reflects the fact that we've added 30,000 net new meters and we have targeted markets in New Jersey and Illinois that have on average higher consumption meters than our existing customer base. The price of decrease reflects the…

Avi Goldin

Analyst

Thank you, Michael. Thanks to everyone listening for joining us this morning. My remarks cover the financial results of the fourth quarter and full year 2015. The three and twelve months period that ended December 31, except where indicated otherwise all comparison in my remarks are to the results for the corresponding period in 2014. Consisting of my approach in prior quarters when discussing the prior quarter financial results, I will focus on the year-over-year comparison rather than the prior quarter results. To remove from consideration the seasonal fluctuations that are characteristic of our retail energy business. On consolidated basis, the fourth quarter financial results were strong and generally consistent with recent trends. Our retail energy business improved its bottom line results compared to the year ago quarter and capitalized exploration expense at Afek increased as we near the peak of our current exploratory program in Northern Israel. Genie Retail again generated all of Genie Energy's revenue, direct cost of revenue in gross profit. In the fourth quarter Genie Retail revenue totaled $43.9 million compared to $49.7 million in the year ago quarter. Full year revenue is $210.1 million compared to $275 million in 2014. The quarterly revenue decline was primarily driven by gas sales which decreased to $7.3 million from $12 million. Revenue per therm sold decreased by 25% compared to the year ago quarter as the retail price of the gas fell throughout the year and we sold 19% fewer therms of gas primarily because of the seasonably warm weather in the final three months of 2015, typically a significant quarter for gas sales. Average consumption per meter decreased by 19% to 23 days in the last three months of 2015, well over 20% to the corresponding levels the year ago. For the full year sales of natural…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Aaron Shafter of Great Mountain Capital Management. Please go ahead.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

Hi, congratulations on your results. My questions all have to do with the Afek venture on the Golan. As far as the flow test is concerned, can you tell us approximately when it began and any estimate of when it would be completed?

Michael Stein

Analyst

The flow test began within the first quarter of 2016. We can't necessarily discuss when it's going to be completed, it's partially a function of how long we need to take within each of the zones where we're testing and what the ultimate results will come out from the interpretation. And as Geoff mentioned, subject to the results from the first flow test, we might look to do a second flow test within one of our other completed wells. But we will update investors as we have relevant information.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

So, will you be releasing that in the 8-K or is that going to be discussed in the next earnings release?

Michael Stein

Analyst

If there is information that rises to the level that needs to be released in the interim we will obviously release it within an 8-K. Absent that we expect to just provide more of a general - another general update at the next quarterly release.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

Okay. And as far as the test well is concerned, you're on your sixth well, do you have any idea when you expect to complete that and began the seventh flow test well?

Michael Stein

Analyst

So just to be clear, we've completed five and we're now focusing on the flow testing within one of the completed wells, and then potentially a second one subject to the results. We don't have a six well currently scoped or currently planned for the immediate future, but we have that ability under our permit, should we look to do another well, partially - depending on how the results playout.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

So your permits allow you to do 10 test wells? Is it possible that you would - that you don't need to drill the rest of those test wells?

Michael Stein

Analyst

That is correct, it is possible that we will not decide to drill the remainder of the wells, but you know as I said that's ultimately going to be a functional of what the results tell us.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

Okay. And at the end, you mentioned possibly seeking alternative sources of capital, would that be something like - a royalty trust or selling lot of parts of your holdings, and Afek or could you elaborate on it?

Michael Stein

Analyst

So I would say that all options are on the table, over the course of the years we've been in conversations with numerous parties about the potential of the resource and where we are, and we determined is that the first stage of exploration operations where we been indulging for the past three years, is where the velocity of value creation is at its highest. That subsequent to that, based on the flow test that we've designed, we expect to have the kind of third-party materials we would need to have a meaningful conversations, both with private oil and gas investors, large - oil and gas companies that are engaging in this space, and, you know we'll look to optimize this conversation once the results are in. But the short answer to your question is that all options are on the table.

Aaron Shafter

Analyst

Thank you. That's all the questions I have.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Terence Meyer of Meyer Capital [ph]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning.

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

Good morning.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

My question is in regards to the PSC order. I wonder how much you can elaborate on what you've already said, particularly in regards to the savings, is there a number that you've been given as to how much saving you have to guarantee?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

So, the short answer is there is not much we can say outside of what we've already said. The order does not specifically have a number for savings, it just says guaranteed saving verses the utility. But as Michael mentioned in his remarks, you know there is a lot of fluidity to the order and that's part of the reason for our opinion that as to why the temporary restraining order was put into place and we're no more as the next month or month and a half unfolds, and we get more clarity on some of these decisions.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Are you able to say on the 30% supply, how was that defined, is there 30% must be able to be supplied from your operation, or 30% must actually be supplied currently to your consumers?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

So that's also something that within the regulation, within the order needs a little bit more definition. There is currently within the industry, the ability to acquire green - green sources for your load, through what's RECs or RACKS. So there is an expectation that those types of products where you go out and acquire sort of a green mess of somebody else's load and use that to provide customers with green - with a green product, it's something that ultimately would be able to be used to satisfy these orders. But there's still a lot of variability there.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Can that be done with any margin?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

We've been incurred interpretation of the order, it seems that you can't, you do not have to guarantee a saving, if you're providing a green product.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Kevin Meyer [ph], a private investor, please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Back to the PSC order, not - forgive me, I was late to the call. And your last comment you just made, are you saying that if you provide 30% of renewable energy, you don't have to provide the statement of savings?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

That is currently the way the order is structured, but as we mentioned in the onset of the call, there is a lot of ambiguity within the order, which is part of the reason why we believe that the temporary restraining order was granted, and we'll know a lot more over the next six weeks, as this plays out.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And one more question, are the incumbent utilities required to provide 30% of their energy from renewables?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

Our understanding is that this order only applies to the REP industry, which is, as Michael alluded to - one of the reasons why, you know, like, we think that this is potentially a little difficult for industry well to do it's a competitive position, but I really don't want to get into that, specifically. Our intention is to comply with the orders as it gets finalized, we are committed to that. But we won't know until that actual finalization happens.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Can I ask you another question?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

Go ahead. Sure.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

If have to provide 30% of our energy from renewables, what effect it's going to do to your average cost of a supply or whatever, can you answer that question?

Geoffrey Rochwarger

Analyst

We can answer this question at that time, that question at this time. We really need to see the final old set of rules before we could develop a strategy or provide something like that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thank you sir. I appreciate your comments. So, that’s all I have.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Linda Minett [ph], a private investors. Please go ahead

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, everybody. I was wondering with problematic regulation in Israel, specifically with energy like we can see with Noble case, how you going to address the issue, the regulation issue?

Avi Goldin

Analyst

Just to repeat the question, the question was is the Israeli regulatory environment and challenges that Noble has seen?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

How are you going to address the issue with all of this regulation?

Avi Goldin

Analyst

That's a great question. So as you are aware, we've been operating in Israel through our first project IEI and Afek for quite some time. We are aware of these regulatory environments. We have some experience in navigating both, the permanent process and the types of challenges the companies face. We found it to be at times interesting operating environment but one that we are comfortable operating in, I would say that as the project moves forward we will look to meet those regulatory challenges that exist anywhere in the world that you love to operate. We don't see ELISA guy. Specifically difficult to work with, specifically difficult country to work in. And in some capacities we'll try to learn the lessons from the people who've gone before us in pushing these projects forward. At this time our focus is on our exploration, we've got a very exciting project. Space is enough, we've got a lot of moving pieces.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you, I am happy to hear. My second question, if I may, oil now is at $36. Does this make partnering up with an experienced tight oil driller more difficult or is it good?

Avi Goldin

Analyst

Ultimately the flow tests are going to help us to find our sweet spot in production and find what kind of drilling operator we need to approach who would be a great partner for us. As we said in the past a range of potential outcomes for this resource and ultimately we are really not going to know until the results of the flow test come in, but we have been fairly aggressive in approaching different partner types and we feel we will be able to have meaningful conversations once we have a more defined production profile.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Would you say like six weeks?

Avi Goldin

Analyst

Six weeks is definitely a little bit aggressive. As we said in the past there is a prospect, as a project of operating the flow test and then there is the analysis period and I wouldn’t want to pre-suppose how long it is going to be how long we are able to come with more definitive results. It’s possible that the results of the first quarter test as Jeff mentioned might lead us to a second flow test so that we can have a more definitive path forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Since there are no additional questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session and conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.