Kevin Schneider
Analyst · Bank of America
Good morning Ed, how are you? This is Kevin. I think when you think about the second half of the year, I think the most important thing to focus on or to think about is what happens with the overall delinquency development. We’ve seen favorable, again, new delinquency development. We’ve seen first half of the year change in overall delinquencies that’s been actually somewhat favorable to its historical trends. Typically, as I think, we mentioned, we would expect a higher rate of delinquency growth in the back half of the year. And as we look at it right now, I think the ultimate outcome in the year is going to be based on, you know, are we are going to continue to see this some favorable new delinquency development that would somewhat mute the traditional seasonality experience? Now do we continue, and I think we have continued to see the burn-through of the bad books of business, the ‘05 through ‘07 type books. So, I think that may provide a little bit of tailwind, but ultimately we need to see how this thing plays out in the back half of the year. But as you think about overall income, I think that delinquency development is really the key thing you should think about in terms of the drivers. Lastly, as we had this quarter, delinquencies have continued to come down now for a few quarters. We like the overall trends and where that’s going, going forward. The remaining offset to that though as it was in this quarter is a little bit of the ageing, the existing inventory. So, as that new inventory comes down, we do have less (inaudible), which is a very favorable trend. We do continue to have older (inaudible) that’s there in the pipeline now. They continue to age forward. I think the encouraging thing there is even with that smaller delinquency population, the overall delinquency reserve level has continued to trend favorably. So, while we do have some ageing, it has been offset by the new delinquency reduction.