Earnings Labs

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 4, 2010

$9.60

-1.29%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.53%

1 Week

-4.47%

1 Month

+5.79%

vs S&P

+5.32%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is April [ph], and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Graphic Packaging Holding Company’s third quarter 2010 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brad Ankerholz, Vice President and Treasurer. Please go ahead, Sir.

Brad Ankerholz

President

Thank you, April and thanks to everyone on the line for joining our call this morning. Commenting on results this morning, are David Scheible, the company’s President and CEO; and Dan Blount, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind everyone that statements of our expectations in this call constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements including, but not limited to statements relating to fiber and other raw material prices, consumer demand and pricing trends capital expenditures, cash pension contributions and pension expense depreciation and amortization, interest expense, debt reduction, cost reduction initiatives and achievement of previously announced operating and financial targets are base on currently available information and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company’s present expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the company’s substantial amount of debt, inflation of and volatility in raw materials and energy costs, volatility in the credit and securities markets, cutbacks in consumer spending that could affect demand for the company’s products, continuing pressure for lower cost products, and the company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives and cost reduction plans. Undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements as such statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and the company undertakes no obligation to update such statements. Additional information regarding these and other risks is contained in the company’s periodic filings with the SEC. David, I’ll now turn it back over to you now.

David Scheible

Management

Thanks, Brad. We’re pleased with our third quarter results as we deliver another solid quarter of operating margins and cash generation. Our strategy to focus on our core business, growing through innovation and building the right execution culture continue to serve us well in a difficult economic environment. Volume got off to a sluggish start in July, but we saw a healthy bounce back in August and September in a number of very positive leading indicators that suggest volume trends should continue to improve. Throughout the entire quarter we optimized production and managed our cost structure effectively, generating over $36 million in continuous improvement savings. This resulted in the strong EBIT, adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.5% and over $73 million of operating cash flows. We also strengthened our capital structure and lowered our cost of capital by refinancing a significant portion of our 9.5% 2013 subordinated notes through the issuance of new 7.875 senior notes due 2018. As we expected prices were positive in the quarter and we cycled through almost year-over-year comparisons on input cost. We should continue to benefit from higher prices and our input cost comparison should ease over the next several quarters. We are therefore comfortable with our progress towards our 2010 operating financial goals in our reiterating our net debt reduction target of $200 million by year-end. Our mills had another very strong quarter with operating rates in the mid to upper 90% range and no market related downtime. We produced 33,000 more tons of board in Q3 2010 than last year after adjusting for the timing of scheduled maintenance related downtime. In our tons per day, production increased nearly 7% over last year. We produced and sold more of our higher margin CUK subsidiary [ph] than last year, which had a positive impact on…

Dan Blount

Management

Thank you, David and good morning everyone. David provided the highlights over the third quarter financial performance then included the continued delivery of solid operating margins and cash generation. I’ll provide more specifics on our operational and segment performance. As a reminder, when I refer to EBITDA and EBITDA margin in my discussion, I am referring to results adjusted to produce comparable financial reporting. The adjustments are detailed in the earnings release. For this quarter, the only adjustment related to the charge was early extinguishment or modification of debt. Starting with revenues, net sales improved over the previous quarter and we are about 1% lower than the prior year. A slight year-over-year decline was driven by lower demand in July, where volumes dropped 6%. Demand rebounded above prior year levels in August and September and we ended the quarter with a sales volume drop of only 1.3%. Additionally, we have gotten off to a positive start in the fourth quarter as October volume ran above the prior year. The most positive news in the quarter was that we completed our cycling through of our downward price adjustments related to 2009 deflation. Q3 prices increased 1.3% over the prior year and we expect this favorable pricing trend to continue into Q4 and into next year. To conclude the review of third quarter sales, here is a breakdown of the $11 million, 1% year-over-year decline. $14 million improvement in price from contractual inflation recovery and realized open market board increases, $13 million impact from the volume decline resulting from the July demand drop-off, $12 million of negative sales mix due to demand shift to lower price products. Now turning to EBITDA, solid margins continue to be delivered. Q3 EBITDA margins improved to 14.5% from 14% in the second quarter as a result…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ian Zaffino. Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: Hey guys, it’s Brian Bittner in for Ian. Good quarter.

Dan Blount

Management

Thanks. Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: You talked a lot about the trends, how they got better throughout the quarter and then seems as though you could have volumes up in the fourth quarter, so with that more favorable raw material comparable higher pricing. I mean, do you think you can have a year-over-year EBITDA number in the fourth quarter, is it possible?

David Scheible

Management

Can you specify what do you mean Brian? Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: EBITDA in the fourth quarter 2010 higher than the fourth quarter 2009. It seems us though that the dynamics you laid out that that could take place?

David Scheible

Management

Yes, all the trends point in that direction. If you remember from 2009, we had some volume challenges because of the economy at that time as well. So it all point in that direction. Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: And can you tell us how much volumes were up in October?

David Scheible

Management

In October, what I would say is the October trend was pretty consistent to what we saw in August and September, they’re up, 1.5% to 2% ordering range, which throughout the course for us in the food and beverage business that’s not insignificant right. One of the keys is where they’re up and it look where it’s up, it’s in some of the areas that we discussed that we’re down in the prior, in this quarter of Q3. Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: So beer is up?

David Scheible

Management

No, not the beer so much, the frozen food…

Don Blount

Analyst

Although beer has got a better trend today than it did last year for sure there is no question about that. But what I would say is the paperboard sector overall trends are positive, I have – we are missing a lot of room in the Multi-Wall Bag sector, it’s just too dependent on industrial recovery primarily from home construction, shingle wrap, concrete, that just doesn’t look like that’s going to get strong in the fourth quarter. Brian Bittner – Oppenheimer: Okay. Thanks a lot for that and then the last question would be, as far your utilization rates at your board mills where are those at these days?

Don Blount

Analyst

We are basing on board mills as I said we have - I think I’d say four to five weeks across the board. We have certainly four to five weeks in CRB our board our backlog in our SUS mill is every bit of three to four weeks sort to our SUS mills are three to four weeks. So manageable backlogs, but we are busy and we have no additional downtime scheduled for the rest of the year. So volume holds which we are going to make the board with no problem. : Wonderful. Thanks for taking my question.

Don Blount

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from [Philip Payne] from Jefferies.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Hi, good morning guys.

Don Blount

Analyst

Good morning.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Just quick question on the inflation of fund I think you guys mentioned that you expect inflation to be flat sequentially from 3Q to 4Q, but OCC prices about fleet hedged higher just want to get your thoughts on that?

David Scheible

Management

Philip one thing you have to look at is, we are on FIFO accounting. So the OCC that we are selling in the fourth quarter, we actually purchased in the second quarter.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Okay.

David Scheible

Management

And in the third quarter, that’s correct and so, since we got about two to three months lag, we have to built that into out projections of financing [Inaudible]

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Okay so you are going to start seeing some of the uptick from an inflation standpoint I guess 1Q next year?

Don Blount

Analyst

That would be more likely, although we are honestly as you all know, OCC spiked, but it’s kind of flattened and anything some of the [Inaudible] right now because the demand from China has dropped off precipitously OCC has been pretty flat. And we don’t, our primary OCC exposures in the Midwest, which as you know tends to be a little bit less variable than what we see on the coasts. It’s very, it can be company specific in that process. Our only exposure on the West Coast is really our Santa Clara mill much smaller, of course a much smaller footprint in our Midwestern exposure in Battle Creek or Kalamzoo in Middletown.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Okay that’s helpful. And then from price cost standpoint, you guys obviously still cycling through a higher inflation and pricing without infill through, so when should I expect to see a positive price cost spread?

Don Blount

Analyst

When you started to see a solid – really on a sequential basis we started to see at this quarter right. Margins, if you think about margins, we’ve been able to maintain let’s say roughly 14.5% margin despite the fact that in year-on-year – like last year we had probably the lowest cost quarter in the history relative to those – in the recent history of those infill cost and yet those infill cost will flow through and we still been able to keep our margins up. So through performance and pricing, I would say I feel good, optimistic if you will about maintaining or slightly expanding margins as I go forward.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

Okay. And I just want to get your thought on the most recent price increases. If I read the trade publications correctly, I don’t think many of your competitors have thought, so I just want to get your thoughts on the most recent increase.

Don Blount

Analyst

Yeah. I can’t respond to what they should that or will have to do, I mean, what I would tell you is based on our input costs and based on the forwards in the demand, it makes sense for Graphic Packaging to raise our paperboard price. What happens is, my control for sure.

Philip Payne - Jefferies

Analyst

All right. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Mark Kauffman.

Mark Kauffman - Rafferty Capital Markets

Analyst

Good morning guys.

David Scheible

Management

Good morning.

Mark Kauffman - Rafferty Capital Markets

Analyst

Got a quick, well couple of quick questions. I was wondering if the Kellogg serial recall that they had any – do you think it had any impact in the quarter? Also what’s your outlook is on natural gas costs for the fourth quarter and if you have any insight into early next year? And just one more I imagine to more philosophical cost, if indeed we do see a pickup in your end-markets the plants are running full out well not quite full out, are you ready to meet that demand?

David Scheible

Management

Yeah, well first of all the Kellogg’s recall is probably a bigger question for Dave Mackay at Kelloggs, which he is – which he handle directly through his own conference calls. As you recall, I think what he would tell you is that the demand for serial was covered by other competitors I think that’s what I read for his saying. And so for Graphic it has really no net impacts for the most part on the serial both for us. So as we just make cartons. And the serial has been a pretty consistent performer throughout this economic environment and it was up again this quarter for Graphic as I said in my prepared notes. So I don’t foresee that as an issue. Relative to capacity, I mean, as we’ve talked before, we have lots of converting capacity to be able to meet rising in demand. That would be a high-class problem we had to deal with. So we’d be pleased to be able to deal with that. In the meantime, what we’re trying to do is make sure that we don’t have excess capacity to time when that demand is moving sideways in the process. So, I’m – we are all setup and ready to go when the volume kicks back.

Don Blount

Analyst

Yeah. And in terms of natural gas, we follow a practice of - we like the pricing hedge forward to natural gas internally with hedges about 42% of our need and our expected need in 2011. So, as we look forward at the hedge prices we’re about $0.60 to $0.75 better than the prior year at this point and we use about 12,000 MMBtu’s 12 million MMBtus per year. So as we look forward, we think natural gas based on these hedges and more positions we put in, this should be favorable over 2010.

Mark Kauffman - Rafferty Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks, very much guys. Good luck in the quarter.

Don Blount

Analyst

Thank you.

David Scheible

Management

Anybody else in the line?

Operator

Operator

There are no audio questions at this time.

David Scheible

Management

All right. Okay thanks everybody for attending the call and we will talk to you next quarter.