Jeff Sloan
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Yes, Dan, it’s Jeff. So I’ll start with that. So our bogie in most of the markets that we’re in is, where are Visa and MasterCard growing transactionally. That’s one way of getting at rate of market growth. But those markets that we’re in, not in every sub-vertical market that Visa and MasterCard are in. But where it’s relevant for us, what’s the rate of transaction growth, number one, number two. What is GDP growing in those markets plus 200 to 300 basis points of increment reflecting the transition from paper to electronic means. So if you distill that, and there’s obviously a lot of markets that we’re in, we’re in 30 countries physically today around the world. What you would say in general across all of our markets, the bogie is around 5% market rate of growth. Some are higher, some are lower, but in general, it’s around 5% rate of growth. If you look at our cycle guidance, which we talked about again this morning, we target high single-digit organic rate of revenue growth plus margin expansion, et cetera. So the way we think about it, Dan, is if we’re targeting high single-digit, if the rate of market growth is 5, when we talked about this last year, last October, in our Investor Day, we certainly think that we’re capturing share in the aggregate. Now some of that is, because we’re in better markets. Some of that is, because we think we have a differentiated sales force. Some of that is, because we think we have state-of-the-art operating environments, et cetera. But nonetheless, the math is the math. And I would say that in most of the markets around the world, we do think that we’re capturing share. If you look at United States, for example, and our OpenEdge business, which Cameron and David just described today mid-teens growth is probably three times the rate of mid single-digit market rate growth more broadly speaking transactionally in the United States. Now, we’re not the only people growing at that rate, at the end of the day. So I don’t think it’s just us. But certainly, I think, traditional channels that we refer to as more relationship driven are not growing at mid-teens. And I certainly think it’s fair to say that there’s market share gain in a technology-enabled distribution area, whether it’s Heartland commerce or whether it’s OpenEdge relative to the more traditional, for example, financial institution channel, we see rates of growth that tends to be less than the market, call it around low single-digit. So I think it’s been a conscious effort to think about what the market is in each market that we’re in, what the bogies are, how we’re going to invest and grow at rates that are north of the market for a lot of reasons. So I think at the end of the day, it’s down to smart investment that take share.