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GeoPark Limited (GPRK)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 9, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to the GeoPark Limited Conference Call following the Results Announcement for the Third Quarter Ended September 30th, 2023 and 2024 work program and investment guidelines. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. If you do not have a copy of the press release it is available at the Invest with Us section on the company’s corporate Web site at www.geo-park.com. A replay of today's call may be accessed through this webcast in the Invest with Us section of the GeoPark corporate website. Before we continue, please note that certain statements contained in the results press release and on this conference call are forward-looking statements rather than historical facts, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described. With respect to such forward-looking statements, the company seeks protections afforded by the Private Securities Litigation Reforms Act of 1995. These risks include a variety of factors, including competitive developments and risk factors listed from time-to-time in the company’s SEC reports and public releases. Those lists are intended to identify certain principal factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, but are not intended to represent a complete list of the company’s business. All financial figures included herein were prepared in accordance with the IFRS and are stated in US dollars unless otherwise noted. Reserves figures correspond to PRMS standards. On the call today from GeoPark is Andrés Ocampo, Chief Executive Officer; Veronica Davila, Chief Financial Officer; Augusto Zubillaga, Chief Technical Officer; Martin Terrado, Chief Operating Officer; James Deckelman, Chief Exploration Officer; and Stacy Steimel, Shareholder Value Director. And now I will turn the call over to Mr. Andrés Ocampo. Mr. Ocampo, you may begin. Andrés Ocampo:…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Alejandro Demichelis from Jefferies.

Alejandro Demichelis

Analyst

A couple of questions, please. The first one is on production. Could you please give us some granularity on how you see that production into next year evolving? Because it has given us quite a wide range of production. And then the second one is your production costs has been a little bit high this quarter. Maybe you can give us some kind of indication of how you see that production cost evolving over time, say over the next 12 months? And then on the exploration side, you have made some good progress. Maybe you can give us some more detail on how you are seeing Zorzal, how you see Halcon, and what excites you in the program that we have for the next 12 months, please?

Martin Terrado

Analyst

I'll start with the first question that you ask around production for 2024 and more granularity, and then I'll pass it on to Andrés and Veronica. So for 2024, our average for the year would be between 37,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, that's around 1% to10% increase from 2023. And when we look at each of the assets Platanillo and Chile, they will be declining around 10% to 30%. As Andrés mentioned, there's no development capital allocated to these two assets. If we move to Brazil, in Brazil, we expect flat production. Llanos 34 will be flat to slightly decline. And then in CPO-5 and Llanos exploration blocks, we expect growing. So overall, Colombian Ecuador production we expect an increase of 3% to 11%.

Veronica Davila

Analyst

Moving onto your question on production cost. We've seen an increase in production cost over the past quarter. A few significant drivers of this, on the one side energy cost in Colombia that have rise given a linear weather pattern. We saw a significant increase in the third quarter, it has since receded a bit and started to stabilize, but that accounted for about 50% of the increase that we saw in the third quarter ‘23 alone. Additionally, the peso has appreciated -- the Colombian peso has appreciated. It was about 10% in the third quarter, also affected our local currency denominated costs, which are about 70% of production costs. One factor that is particular to the third quarter has to do with the composition of sales. So we have a drop in inventories for Putumayo and Oriente assets, those have higher overall production costs than [Indiscernible] assets and so they move that averages, but those are factors that tend to even over time. All in all, for 2023, we still expect the consolidated production cost to be about $10 to $11 per BOE in line with guidance that we previously provided. If we look to 2024, we still expect to see pressure both from energy cost in Colombia and from inflation. The guidance that we provided yesterday within a work program includes $160 million to $170 million worth of OpEx that equates to about $12 per BOE considering volumes produced. I have to say, our team will continue to focus on implementing cost efficiency initiatives and we look forward to doing that over the next year. Andrés Ocampo: So to comment on your question about which excites us from this new activities or this new place. We really believe these are more or less the four or five we…

James Deckelman

Analyst

I would like to begin by first saying that I am very pleased to be a part of this leadership team on a very, very high caliber, working assets of such high quality and basins that are so very prolific. These are basins that I worked earlier in my career and is very pleased and I’ll be levering that experience and success here at GeoPark, principally in three areas; one is organic and inorganic growth; secondly, to expand our organizational capabilities; and the third thing is to develop some differential technologies. So again, very, very pleased to be here. Since I joined the company quite recently, with respect to your question regarding what we are very excited about, I would reinforce some of the comments that were made by Andrés. And what's really of interest to me are the high volume demographic stratigraphic concepts that we are now developing both in Colombia and in an Ecuador. What's germane here are two key points. One is the volume potential of these traps and also the play repeatability. And what we are seeing in the Toritos play, for example, is clear repeatability within Block 123, therefore, significant scope for additional volume potential as well as possible extension into CPO-4.

Alejandro Demichelis

Analyst

As a small follow-up, because Andrés, you mentioned the [Indiscernible] you didn't mention the [Indiscernible] outcome. Could you give us some kind of range on the [Indiscernible]? Andrés Ocampo: It is more or less 25, 30 feet, which is similar to what we've seen in other parts of being that formation in other parts of that area. So it's more or less within what we expected.

James Deckelman

Analyst

And just adding to that, that well also intersected no water contact, which is very, very important as well.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Stephane Foucaud of Auctus Advisors.

Stephane Foucaud

Analyst

I have got a few. First looking at 2024 production guidance. Given the level of activities and the new [feed] entering production, it looks a bit conservative. So I was wondering whether you could give us a sense of why you would expect production to be at the end of 2024 when the Llanos 123, 87 and Ecuador are in full production that would help us, I think, me to have a view on it where 2025 could be in production? So that's my first question. Second, on 123 and 87, what do you think from what you see so far and the development program, what do you see being the production capacity of each of these fields [indiscernible] bit early stage, but you might already have some sense of that? And lastly what -- do you expect to pay any cash tax in Colombia in Q4 ‘23? And if yes, how much?

Martin Terrado

Analyst

I'll cover the first one around production exit for 2024 and then I'll pass it on to Andrés and Veronica again. So for 2024, as Andrés mentioned in the initial remarks, the average will be 37,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. And as you can imagine next year, it's going to have significant appraisal activity in this cover field. So the exit will depend on the learnings and the results of these fair ways that we will be appraising. In Ecuador, we're going to be drilling between two and seven appraisal wells. In Llanos exploration, three to nine wells. So at this point, that's as much as we can share. Andrés Ocampo: So I think Stephane, both the first and second question, this is what is different about next year's program is that it has a -- maybe a more significant component of delineation and appraisals than maybe in the past couple of years. I think in the past couple of years it was either development or new exploration and it was very easy development, we associate production and exploration. We don't. In delineation and appraisals, there's some risking associated with it. And you can see that the range of activity on each one of this delineation place is pretty wide. I mean, some of it goes to, I think in Ecuador we're going to do something like two to seven wells and I think in Llanos exploration goes from three to nine wells. So that's a pretty wide range. And the reason for that is because we're in early stages. We're seeing what we're seeing is encouraging. We hope we can be on the upper side of the range. And if we are there, then yes, we would be on the de-risking side of the play. And hopefully what that brings is a lot more upside on the production side than what we're showing in our guidance. So probably that is the main reason why it sounds a little odd, the level of activity compared with the level of production that we're showing. Also part of the production as it was mentioned by Martin, it is offset by three assets that we have that are producing today collectively something around 4,000 barrels a day that are not getting any capital associated that are going to be declining. So that offsets a little bit the corporate production growth.

Veronica Davila

Analyst

So as you well know, income taxes in Colombia are paid primarily in the second quarter. So the bulk of our cash taxes we have already paid for this year. Now on every quarter we do have withholding taxes that are part of that cash tax payments. And so if we look at the fourth quarter, we would expect on and about $10 million to $20 million of those to be paid for during the quarter and that is included and in line with the guidance we've provided previously.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] I'll now hand the call back to Mr. Andrés Ocampo for any concluding remarks. Andrés Ocampo: Thank you everybody for your interest and your support, and we're always here to answer any questions you may have. Please reach out and we encourage you to visit in our fields and our operations or call at any time for further information. So thank you, and have a good day.