Earnings Labs

Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 14, 2024

$3.45

-3.23%

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Transcript

Joanne Jobin

Management

Good morning. I'm Joanne Jobin, your VID Media host. Welcome to the Gold Royalty Quarterly Investor Town Hall Forum. Before we commence, just a reminder, that if you have any questions for the company, please place them into the Q&A tab located at the top of this screen. After the presentation, I will be delighted to moderate submitted questions from our audience. With us this morning is the Gold Royalty team, led by Chairman and CEO, David Garofalo, who will make the intros to the team and take you through the highlights of the most recent quarterly results. David, the stage is yours.

David Garofalo

Management

Well, good morning, everybody, and thanks for the introduction, Joanne, and I'm joined today by our Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Gubbels who will take us through our second quarter financial results. And then Peter Behncke, our Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, will provide you a portfolio update. But before we get into that, I thought it's been my custom to discuss the fundamentals of the gold market, which means very, very robust. And this is not a recent phenomenon. The significant performance of the gold price has been occurring for 50 years really since the US government and central banks globally decoupled from the gold standard in early 1970s. It really has been a one-way trade. The temptation to continue to print money is just too great for governments, particularly in this environment where debt levels are at historical highs, 350% global debt to GDP relative to 100% elastic inflation cycle. And those fundamentals are really driving the governments and several banks, in particular, the lower interest rates, and that's driving capital into gold, which is the one monetary instrument that can't be printed and while it yields zero percent, the reality is treasuries and other sovereign debt is yielding negative on a real basis. So there really is no opportunity cost to owning gold. And this long-term phenomenon of gold appreciating against all feed currencies will continue unabated into the foreseeable future, particularly is an environment where the only way for these governments to deal with their exorbitant debt levels is to inflate it away. So we are in for a prolonged inflationary cycle, and gold will perform extremely well in that environment. What has not performed well unfortunately, to this point, is gold equities. We haven't seen a significant allocation of capital out of the general…

Andrew Gubbels

Management

Thanks, Dave. As Dave referenced, Q2 was another strong quarter for the company. Gold royalty, as you've seen in our results, is truly transitioned to become a royalty company that consistently generates cash from operations. In Q2, we delivered $1.2 million with the cash flow, including land agreement proceeds credited against multiple mineral properties, which is a second consecutive quarter, a positive operating cash flow. It's a great achievement for a company that IPO three years ago with 18 non-cash flow and royalties, as Dave already mentioned. Q2 total revenue of $2.2 million, that's 947 geos for our calculation was approximately 300% higher than the comparable period in 2023 or 2023. This further highlights how far we've come in such a short period of time. Higher revenue in the period was largely due to the additional royalty receipts from our accretive acquisitions and supplemented by initial cash flows from development projects in our pipeline starting into production. The second quarter also saw continued cost discipline with our cash operating costs, down approximately 9% compared to the same period in 2023. Notably, in the period, Gold Royalty completed the acquisition of a copper stream on the Vares Project in Bosnia from Orion Mine Finance for $50 million. This bilateral transaction secured a high-return long-life asset to further strengthen our foundation of producing assets. Aside from Vares, the existing portfolio has continued to perform well. And Peter will talk more about this in the subsequent pages. We've earned our first royalty revenue at IAMGOLD's Côté project and benefited from a full quarter of cash flow from the Borborema and Cozamin royalties that we acquired last year. That complements strong revenue generation from Canadian Malartic and Borden. Finally, in Q2, Gold Royalty published its second annual sustainability report, which highlights our ESG performance…

Peter Behncke

Management

Thanks, Andrew. So building on Andrew's comments, speaking to the growth in our revenue profile this year and that driven by some of our recent acquisitions. Wanted to zoom out and provide a reminder a snapshot of our portfolio pipeline as it stands today. You can see the seven cash flowing assets that are driving our 2024 total revenue on line agreement proceeds have really been supplemented by our recent acquisitions, the assets highlighted in green and the yellow box, Vares, Cote Gold, Borborema, Cozamin, all individual asset acquisitions acquired over the last several years. Before diving into the specific portfolio updates, details of which are more comprehensively outlined in our MD&A, reminder of the portfolio metrics that really do differentiate Gold Royalty, we are still over 80% North American focused with the majority of our portfolio in Quebec, Ontario and Nevada and the quality of operators that are driving forward our assets are second to none. Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle, specifically, really driving forward those key development stage assets fueling our future growth, extremely well capitalized, which is increasingly important in today's precious metals environment for developers and producers. So the first asset to highlight and provide an update on is our flagship asset over the Odyssey mine, the underground future of the Canadian Malartic complex, going to be Canada's largest underground gold mine. As a reminder, our royalty is a 3% NSR royalty over the northern portion of the Odyssey mine, specifically covering the Odyssey North deposit, portions of east Malartic, part of Odyssey South and excitingly, the majority of the internal zones, which could supplement the Canadian Malartic mine plan in the relatively near term. Based on the 2023 updated mine plan, we see a mine life towards 2042, but importantly, that incorporates approximately only half of…

David Garofalo

Management

Well, thanks Peter and thanks everybody for your kind attention. We're going to stay on to take some Q&A. But I think Peter's point on Borborema to me is a microcosm of what's happening in the broader portfolio in that the operators continue to optimize and explore the assets. In the case of Borborema, the permit to move the highway will unlock significant resource to not only expand production but extend the mine life. And that optionality comes for free because all of our 240 royalties are completely bought and paid for. And not only is that work happening in Borborema, when you look at the broader portfolio, over $200 million per annum is spent on expiration on that underlying portfolio which we contribute nothing to that expiration budget. We get the benefit of that upside and that portfolio now has over 120 million ounces of gold equivalent exposure. That's significant optionality within the portfolio that you get for free as a shareholder. And I think that's an important element of the story in addition to the significant growth that we're realizing, crystallizing right now in terms of revenue, operating cash flow and free cash flow for share growth over the coming quarters and years. With that, Joanne, I'd be delighted to take questions. And Peter and Andrew will join me to help field those.

A - Joanne Jobin

Operator

Thank you very much. And thank you, gentlemen, for another stellar update. We certainly have a global full house audience today as per usual. So, thank you to the audience for taking the time to listen in this morning or this afternoon, wherever you're located. [Operator Instructions] And our first question for today is, can you expand on the 20% cost reduction in G&A compared to 2023?

Andrew Gubbels

Management

Yes, I could take that one. So, the company continues to closely manage its operating costs. This has been an ongoing process. Last year, really the effort was eliminating redundancies and streamlining the companies following the acquisitions made in 2021, really since then, we've been focused on renewing vendor contracts with a view of trying to have more efficient and effective pricing, simplifying the operating structure to the extent possible, and really targeting the most value add with respect to just general office, IT, insurance costs, et cetera. So, really, the decrease in costs are as a result of the continued focus on simplification and streamlining. Also in the period, Q2, we spent a big portion of the time as a group, executing on the Vares transaction. There was a portion of transaction-related costs and salaries that were capitalized as a result. It's recorded in the notes of the financial statements as well, which contributed to a moderate decrease in the operating cost in the period in addition to the continued focus on streamlining those operating costs.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Thank you, Andrew. Next question. Okay, here we go. Well, well-known mining newsletter writer, Logo Tigre [ph], said he does not recommend GROY because of excessive issuance of shares. Can you address how even with issuing more shares, the long-term value is still a net benefit to shareholders? And by the way, David, I guess, Joe was very impressed with your interview while jogging yesterday. The percentage of shareholders that can talk Turkey on a run is likely in the 1% category. So, Bravo on that.

David Garofalo

Management

Well, thanks very much for your question. In each and every case, when we have issued shares, and I should add that we only issued share in the IPO and most recently, in the bought-deal financing that we did in order to acquire the stream, the coffee stream on the Vares silver mine in Bosnia. We had a use of proceeds and any cheaper case, it adds significant accretion to not only our net asset value per share, but more importantly, our most recent acquisitions over the last year have added appreciably to our cash flow per share growth. The biggest criticism we faced a year ago was that the gap-to-growth was long. The market wasn't willing to pay for growth. Our growth was too long-dated. So, we went about looking at cash flowing royalty opportunities we thought would add immediate accretion on a cash flow per share basis, but also add net asset value per share accretion. So, I would assure you that we're not issuing willy-nilly. We're not doing it for the sake of issuing equity and putting cash on the balance sheet. We're putting that capital to work with long-life deposits with significant exploration upside that offer significant cash flow per share accretion in the short term while adding to the net asset value per share. And that's been true in each and every one of the cases of acquisitions we made over the last year in order to, again, supplement the cash flow in the short term but, again, introducing assets that have significantly long lives and significant exploration upside.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Okay. And next question is, with the new land agreements coming online, and this is, again, in line with the share question and revenue improving, is there further dilution coming on the horizon?

David Garofalo

Management

Again, we have not diluted our shareholders. When we've issued equity, it's been in the context of having a use of proceeds where we've actually accreted value for our shareholders, net asset value, and most recently, in the most recent act, is just significant cash flow per share accretion. So, if we had a use of proceeds where we could demonstrate that there is significant fusion, of course, we'd go back to our shareholders and ask for more capital for an opportunity that adds value. In the absence of that, we don't issue equity.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. When can we expect the share price to improve?

David Garofalo

Management

It's a good question. I'd love to see -- I'd love to be able to pinpoint a date when that happens. And I would say that given the cash flow per share growth, earnings per share growth that we're experiencing and expecting to experience over the coming months and years. And again, these are from assets that have long lives, well-capitalized operators that are on the cusp of significant production growth. We're in an excellent position to grow cash flow and earnings per share. I think the market will start to attribute accretion and attribute share price performance in that type of environment. I think we're in an excellent position. We're on the cusp of delivering a significant rate as a result of all of this growth we've been promising since our IPO coming to fruition all at the same time over the course of the next year or two.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. And we have -- we do have quite a few questions on Vares. I'm going to try to gather those all together. So, the first one is -- what is the lag time between production payments on the Vares Copper Stream for production reported in the quarter with the stream revenue associated with this production fee in the following quarter?

David Garofalo

Management

I could take that one. The -- with respect to the Copper Stream contract, it does require a certain amount of copper to be produced in concentrate. There is a lag between the concentrate that is produced and the amount of copper that's built up to be able to pay us our first stream payment. Our expectation is that we will receive our first stream payment for the Vares project in the third quarter of this year.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Thank you. And I know you answered this in your presentation, but perhaps you can talk about it again. Describe what, if any, impact the recent court ruling on the Vares Royalty will have on the operating mine.

Peter Behncke

Management

Yes, really...

David Garofalo

Management

Yeah, you go ahead, Peter. I am sorry.

Peter Behncke

Management

Yeah, really, just to reiterate the commentary from Adriatic and our discussions, is there's no impact on production from the recent court ruling. They have well-advanced alternative tailings facility operations or potential plans that could substitute the expanded tailings facility that currently has some trees that they need to chop down on it, but also, they are continuing ongoing discussions to get that expanded tailings facility in place as originally planned as well. I think one other highlight at Adriatic is they did have a recent management shifts as well and the key principles involved are in-country experts as well that are connected to bring this asset into full freight production. So we're quite confident in them to deliver on the production profile as outlined.

David Garofalo

Management

I would just urge shareholders, by all means, look at Adriatic own public disclosure on this, and they've been quite adamant that they do have alternative tailings disposition sites within their own land. They don't need to rely on government land whatsoever in order to dispose of tailings. We were on site during our due diligence process. We will be on site again in September with other key shareholders who will be visiting the site. And I should add that Adriatic largest shareholder actually doubled their ownership in the company to about 11% subsequent to the announcement on the basin and corporate. So they've done their own diligence on this, and they took the opportunity with the slight sell-off in the stock to weight up their position.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Thank you, David. Can the company publish a five-year projection of GEOs ramp-up?

Peter Behncke

Management

Yes. So our guidance in 2024 is for that 6,500 to 7,000 GEOs. But across the six analysts that cover us and given those key ramp-up -- ramp up of development stage assets like Odyssey, like Cote, consensus figures see us approaching north of 30,000 GEOs towards the end of the decade. So on that five-year time line inquired on.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. And when do you expect positive free cash flow?

Andrew Gubbels

Management

So at the moment, we are generating positive operating cash flow. It's contingent on the back half of this year, but we are starting -- we're getting close to being at the cost of generating positive free cash flow. We'll see how the rest of the year shapes up, but it's really through 2024, 2025, I expect positive free cash flow to be a reality for the company.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. Andrew. What are some of the major catalysts that the company is looking forward to?

David Garofalo

Management

Well, we touched on -- Peter touched on that in his presentation with significant ramp-ups in production at Cote, which achieved commercial production a month ahead of schedule, a continued underground development at Canadian Malartic and the Odyssey project in particular, where we have significantly more royalty coverage, and that's a multiyear proposition where we're getting cash flow growth, not only in the current year, but going forward, particularly as a transition from open pit mining exclusively underground where we have much more royalty coverage. We're getting the benefit of bars. We're going to get our first royalty revenue in the second half or streaming revenue, I should say, in the second half of the year. Borborema is expected to achieve commercial production in the first half of next year. We're actually generating preproduction royalty payments and interest payments on our convertible gold loan this year, while we're waiting for that production ramp up. So, looking across the portfolio of multiple assets with very strong capitalized operators that will continue to deliver growth for years to come.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. And when do you expect to model first GEOs from Odyssey underground?

Peter Behncke

Management

Yes. So, Terry, thanks for the question. First, GEOs, we model in line with the Agnico Eagle production profile. So that's seen Odyssey North and East Malartic coming online towards 2027, 2028 based on the recent updates. And then we do view those Odyssey internal zones as potential upside and Odyssey South here coming online immediately. Our current revenue from Canadian Malartic and the Odyssey mine is from the Barnat pit currently. So the remaining open pit mine life out towards 2028, but it is in line with Agnico Eagle's current mine plan.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Excellent. Let's talk about the guidance range. Are you still tracking to perform within that range provided earlier in the year?

David Garofalo

Management

Yes. We are on track. As Andrew noted, well on track based on our first half revenue and seeing those key assets ramp up in the second half to meet guidance.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Okay. And one more question regarding share performance. And I know you've answered this already, David, but we are getting a lot of questions on it. So why isn't the share price performing despite the improving cash flow?

Andrew Gubbels

Management

Yes. Look, I think it's just a matter -- this is a market where you get paid for growth that's in the rearview mirror as opposed to anticipating. It's not that kind of market. As I said, the GDXJ is 75% below its peak. The smaller cap players in the university have not seen any love from the capital markets. But inevitably, as we start to achieve positive free cash flow, positive earnings growth, the market will pay for that. We'll start to pay more on price to cash flow and price earning multiples opposed to price your asset value. I think we will start to see that really to get delivered in the second half of the year with significant growth from some of the largest gold mines in North America.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Thank you, gentlemen. And as we are now at the top of the hour, we will end our Q&A session. If you have any other questions, please forward them directly to Peter at peterbehncke@goldroyalty.com. And David, before we close the forum today, would you like to say a few words before we sign off.

David Garofalo

Management

So thank you again for your kind attention this quarter and your questions, and we're always available to answer any Q&A off-line as well through our e-mails or directly through our 1800 number, if you'd like to reach out by all means we can make a shelf available.

Joanne Jobin

Management

Thank you, David and team. And just remember that this Town Hall will be available on the Gold Royalty website and across all of our socials within the next 24 hours. Before we sign off, please ensure that you fill in the short questionnaire at the end of the presentation. This really helps us and the company communicate more effectively with you in the future. Thank you for joining us, and we will see you on the next Town Hall forum. Goodbye for now.