Earnings Labs

GSK plc (GSK)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 25, 2012

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Transcript

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Good afternoon, and thank you very much for joining me by link today. I'm sorry we're not doing this face-to-face. But I'm sure you'll understand, we're trying to avoid everybody being caught up in Olympic lane. And hopefully, this works for you in terms of avoiding being trapped in traffic. We're going to review the Q2 results for GSK. And with me today, I've got Simon Dingemans, our CFO, who'll make some comments in a few minutes. And also, Moncef Slaoui, who will join Simon and I for question-and-answer at the end, so you'll have an opportunity to ask about pipeline assets, if you'd like. Let me start by making a few general comments about the quarter. It's been an interesting quarter for the company, a very busy one, really a couple of big dynamics. The first is some very, very good progression of the advanced pipeline. We'll talk a little bit more about that. But clearly, during the quarter, we've seen a lot of very encouraging data, particularly around some of the bigger potential assets in the pipeline. While there still so much to do to bring those assets to the marketplace, it's clearly coming into shape as a potential driver of enhanced organic growth going forward. Secondly, again, the quarter has been characterized by a continued deterioration in the external environment, especially in Europe, where we took a 7% negative price hit during this quarter. We think to some degree, that may be the worst it gets, but that all depends on government policy. So if nothing new comes out from now on, we think it starts to ameliorate going forward. But it all depends on the events coming out of the Italian, Spanish and other governments over the next few months. We'll have to wait and see.…

Simon Dingemans

Management

Thank you, Andrew. And just like to add my thanks as well to everyone on the webcast, on the phones for helping us avoid some of the Olympic congestion that's just beginning to build up in London. A year ago, we implemented a new financial architecture for the company, really designed to drive a different level of focus around implementation of the strategy and make sure that we were driving the right returns from that strategy and sustainably so over time. As Andrew has highlighted for you, I think we really feel that the quarter, despite its challenges, shows some real progress on that strategy. And I'm confident also that the financial architecture is contributing to that delivery. The ways in which it's really making a difference in the short term is in helping us allocate our resources more effectively and helping us look at the choices and the decisions we're making so that we're improving the returns and making sure that we're driving investment behind the best-returning and highest-growth opportunities that we have across the company and reallocating resources away from those where we see less opportunity. And I think thirdly, what it's really done is drive a focus on those returns across the company so that decision-making is really now much more consistent, much more comparable between the businesses than perhaps it has in the past. And you can see that in some of the cost measures that are contributing to the company in this more challenging quarter. But over the last several quarters consistently, where we're reallocating those resources to help drive the investment businesses. I think the last area where it's become most visible in the last several quarters is in the focus on cash. We've improved our working capital performance. We've improved our return and…

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Thanks, Simon. And now maybe, I guess, Moncef and Simon, to come up to answer questions or help answer questions and open up the call to Q&A. And as usual, if you can register for your question, we'll call you out in turn.

Operator

Operator

And the first question is from Tim Anderson from Sanford Berstein. Tim Anderson - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: A couple of questions, please. You described kind of 3 pillars to your long-term strategy, and one of those is to simplify the operating model. And I'm hoping you can crystallize what you were referring to exactly and how you can achieve this. If you plan on maintaining a global diversified business and you're doing acquisitions here and there and you continue to build out your emerging market presence, it's not really clear to me how the operating model can be simplified very much. The second question is on emerging markets. Novartis said recently that excluding the performance in China, it does not really expect that emerging markets would be able to grow by double-digits sustainably in the future. And I'm wondering if you can say what your expectations are for emerging market growth, excluding China. Do you think Glaxo's business can grow by double-digits percent in the future? Or would it be less than this, again excluding China?

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Okay. Tim, thanks so much for your question. So in terms of the simplified operating model, I think there are 2 or 3 dimensions that we need to be thoughtful about. So firstly, you're absolutely right. Of course, as we build out into new areas to source growth, that creates complexity. It creates new levels of how the business needs to operate. What we've been doing behind that is stripping down complexity which we don't think adds value. So over the last 3 years, we've created a core business service organization in the business, where we've taken entire organization service sectors. Everything that supports the way the business runs at the front line, we're streamlining and simplifying all of that. The same in our HR organizations, finance organizations. We're putting in place a common IT platform, whereas previously, we had dozens of different finance systems across the world. We streamlined out huge amounts of internal complexity, which wasn't visible to the outside and was really a product of the origin of the company coming through the composition of all these merged entities and from businesses which were at the very beginning really federal businesses and dominated by countries rather than the corporate entity. That's taking quite a long time. It's not all finished. There's still quite a lot of scope for us to go there. But that's been a big part of the simplification of the business model. There's much more standardization inside GSK now than there used to be. And you should continue to expect to see that's one area which is very important. The second area, we've touched on already today a couple of times, we see continued great opportunity, really very significant opportunity. And I think personally, the GBP 500 million cost reduction we've targeted in the…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Graham Parry from Merrill Lynch.

Graham Parry - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

And just the first one is on margin and sales growth. Your latest comment suggests that they're both dependent on pipeline delivery. Previously, I think you suggested that they could still grow x pipeline but just albeit at a low rate. So wondering if you could clarify if that is the case still. Or does the impact of pricing pressure effectively mean that you're now entirely dependent on the pipeline there? And second, if could you just quantify what the one-offs in the COGS line were and is that where you see the most margin pressure this year resulting in you looking for no-margin growth now. And then thirdly, you talked previously about margins over the mid-30s would be implying underinvestment in the business. Is that still a valid number in light of your comments on the willingness to invest in commercializing the pipeline? And then just finally, on the divestments on the noncore businesses, just wondering if you could be a bit more specific about any areas that you're looking at in particular there.

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Okay. So in terms of growth, I'm still of the view that absent a material -- so if you think back over the last several years, Graham, we've delivered more NDA approvals in the U.S. than any other company. But they've been made up of relatively small niche products. That's been our kind of base rate of contribution from pipeline. What we're looking to potentially deliver in the next 2, 3 years is a continued flow, actually potentially a similar number of approvals but are potentially much larger opportunities for the group. Absent that kind of step-up, I still think the group is capable of growing. And I think we're very close to that even in this quarter, which I think does have quite a composition of different headwinds coming from different places, which have just knocked us south of that level. That's something which I continue to think we'll be able to achieve. Why? Because I think Japan, Emerging Markets, in particular, continue to grow larger and larger. Emerging Markets is very close to being our second-biggest region, very close to being bigger than the European business, if you look at the quarter's turnover number this time. So you're seeing a growth in the overall size of that business. And while the growth rates are off a bit for the reasons I just mentioned in Tim's question, the actual growth rates remain extremely robust and very punchy compared to anywhere else in the world. Japan, similar story, and Consumer, a similar story. So I think those businesses continue to be very good. What we just have to recognize is in the U.S., we're just coming through that kind of turning point and stabilization in our American business. We still have about GBP 800 million of old products disappearing this…

Simon Dingemans

Management

So Graham, in terms of the one-offs, they're split broadly between cost of goods and SG&A. At the cost of goods level, actually the one-offs in this quarter are pretty comparable to the one-offs we had this time last year. And the manufacturing cost base tends to have a variety of one-offs quarter-to-quarter. So I think that's not a significant driver. Where it's making more of a difference in the quarter is at the SG&A level. And as I said in my comments, I think we see this as an investment opportunity to allow us to fund some of the positioning for the pipeline without building permanent expense, and so contributing to the overall objectives. Overall, for the margin for the year, cost of goods probably is the bigger drag, given the mix issues I've discussed. We're obviously working in terms of the manufacturing base to address that. But I think in terms of trend over the coming quarters, that's where there's upward pressure. And we'll be pushing as much back on that as we can. But you'll see more downward movement probably at the SG&A line.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Baum from Citi.

Andrew S. Baum - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

I have 3 questions, if I may. First, I think you're due to complete your SAP upgrade program at the end of next year. What does that mean for the future scope of additional cost savings on top of what you've already announced? Second, you highlighted that the EMAP and the European businesses are going to be consolidated under Abbas. Could you outline what you hope to achieve here in terms of revenue opportunities, cost savings? I'm not looking for numbers but just the motivation here. And then finally, a question on the U.S. The only 2 products which performance you highlighted in the quarter did GBP 40 million in aggregate. You're the only company required by the U.S. government not to incentivize true individual sales targets. And you continue to lose market share in volume across multiple primary care categories. What confidence can you give us that this is a portfolio issue and not a structural issue for GSK, following the consequences of the DOJ investigation?

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Okay, great. Let me, first of all, ask Simon to touch on the SAP, and then I'll come to the other 2 questions.

Simon Dingemans

Management

So Andrew, on the SAP upgrade, we're making good progress. We now have 5 or 6 markets up and running in the last 2 or 3 months across Europe. And we're on track with the first phase of that plan, which will complete at the end of next year. What we're looking at the moment is whether we can extend that program within the existing budget to prioritize more of our emerging market footprint relative to our developed market footprint, consistent with what we've been talking about today. So more to come on that, but we're very much on track. And already, the early signs of the impact are giving us the confidence to press on.

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

And I think all of the experience we've got either from people in the company who've worked with SAP or from other companies who deployed, is that the opportunities -- it's always harder to forecast where the cost-saving opportunities from an SAP deployment before versus when you've actually got it, you suddenly discover ways of working, which are big drivers of cost efficiency. And I suspect that, that will absolutely be the case here. As far as the combination of the emerging market and Europe is concerned, it's really 2 or 3 different agendas that I'm really looking to try and achieve here. So first of all, Abbas has really established, I think, over the last 4 years a very strong capability to drive operational performance in the emerging market region. And one of the things we're looking to do, and in fact we're announcing today internally, the structure below Abbas is we're streamlining and really shortening some of the lines between the senior management and operations to try and bring to Europe a new operational emphasis, which we recognize Europe's a tough environment, but we want to really leverage what we know has worked in emerging markets in terms of motivating our organization. So part of it is about short-term operational delivery. And I think that's absolutely the right focus for us to have. A part of it is around streamlining the business as we move into the pipeline arena. So as we are moving toward global franchises as a way to think about developing our pipeline, essentially translating the assets from R&D into the businesses, we didn't want to have the R&D organization having to engage with multiple different regions, particularly recognizing that actually, the era where a single Europe had a single opinion has really gone in…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Alexandra Hauber from JPMorgan. Alexandra Hauber - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: 3 questions, please. Firstly, I was wondering what is the strategic commitment to drive operating margins. Is it a commitment? Or is it not a commitment? And also how important is that as a strategic goal? I mean, last week, Novartis scrapped their 2012 margin target because they're investing $300 million into new products, which was probably the right thing to do. So does it make sense to target margin expansion next year when you should be investing into new products? Second question is you mentioned parallel trade as one of the factors that contributed to the 7% price pressure in Europe. Can you give us a little bit more color on that phenomenon? Which country is it coming from? Were there any products particularly affected? And also why you think that problem won't become any worse? And the last question is on dermatology. Why is that declining? Surely, that wasn't what you expected when you were acquiring Stiefel.

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

So as far as operating margin is concerned, I mean, what we tried to lay out at the beginning of the year is that we believe that the business dynamic that we foresee going forward would give us the opportunity to drive leverage. We've made very clear that we expected this year the leverage to be very small. We're now signaling it's more likely to be in line than the very small. And I think through all of the smoke and mirrors of the way we communicate to you and you listen to us, I think we'd all broadly conclude that, that very small meant 20 basis points. So what we're really talking about here is the kind of pinhead of a needle or the head of a needle. So the reality, I think, is not so much about this year. The reality is around do you believe that the delivery of the pipeline on top of the business of the shape we have, absent the kind of drags that we've lived with for the last 5 years, is capable of spinning off leverage in the margin? And our view remains, yes, it will. It will be driven by the positive sales and mix contribution of pipeline, and then therefore, as the pipeline comes in, that will be what really drives it. And that will be either accelerated or nullified by headwinds or drags, I mean, to state the obvious. Now this year, in a year where it was never about pipeline this year, obviously, the increase in headwind, particularly in Europe, has been just enough to take away that very small opportunity that we'd originally thought might have begun to kick in this year. Now I've already suggested it, if we got to a point, if in the middle…

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Gbola Amusa from UBS.

Gbola Amusa - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

I have 3 of them. First, on the European pricing pressure, the 7%, I'll ask it slightly differently. Can you give us a bit more on what that number looks like for your Vaccines business, for your Consumer business and how big the gap is between your mature and nonmature products? Secondly, on the new tax rate guidance, how much of that, if any, is driven by geographical mix and might, therefore, be a bit more durable into the future beyond 2013? And then lastly, on LABA/LAMA. How much of the Phase IIa/IIb dosing studies will be presented or discussed in the coming months?

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Okay. Let me ask Simon to talk about tax rate. And Moncef, can you do the LABA/LAMA? And then I'll come back to that pricing question.

Simon Dingemans

Management

On the tax rate, the original objective of 25% was driven by a mix of factors in terms of bringing our files up-to-date with a whole series of authorities around the world. And we made good progress, and that's really why we've been able to accelerate our path towards that target. So yes, there is a global element to the objective. There is also part of the process of realigning our cash flows and our profit flows with the changing shape of the group. And that's certainly underpinning the fact that we believe the 25% target to be very durable. Once we get to 25%, the challenge is then to look for other efficiencies and thinking about opportunities such as the U.K. patent box, certainly, we believe will give us room beyond 25%. So I don't think there's anything in the mix to date that undermines that target or how we're going to make it persist for the future.

Moncef Slaoui

Analyst

On the LABA/LAMA, first, we have almost the totality of the data, we think, is required for filing. What we still expect within the next literally handful of weeks is longer-term safety observations from our Phase III trials. We have the fullness of Phase II data. And we are of the view and we're very comfortable that we can demonstrate the once a day and the adequacy of the dose selected. The data will be presented in September and available for comments.

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Thanks, Moncef, Simon. So in terms of pricing, Gbola, I'm afraid there's no simple answer to that question, as you probably would expect. If you look at the Pharma business in Europe, you've got a mix. So Greece, pretty much across-the-board price cut for all assets, so no different, mature, not mature. If you look elsewhere, you will see big assets being targeted. So products like Seretide, and I'm sure in our competitors, similar large market-leading type products, get picked out and they get hit specifically. Parallel trade tends to touch the bigger, higher volume products, higher value, higher volume products more than others. So again, the parallel trade dynamic tends to be more relevant to a product like Seretide than perhaps some of the smaller or older or lower value unit cost products. Vaccines oftentimes isn't included in the direct pricing negotiation but can sometimes be picked out as a special case, as was the case in Germany last year. And a very big part of the European price impact we're seeing still is the phenomenon of the German vaccine price cuts, which kicked in, in Q3 of last year. And if nothing else new comes along, it's one of the reasons why we think this quarter may be the nadir of European price impact. As that German number starts to wind its way out, that all depends on whether new stuff comes along. Elsewhere, obviously, vaccine price pressure comes through tenders. And what we've seen particularly again in Europe is tenders being delayed as negotiations drag on in some cases, or in fact, they just decide to defer the tender completely as a way of deferring the costs. So it's a real mix. Consumer, of course, there's not so much direct pressure from government. But as you're all aware, there's a lot of retail competition. There's an awful lot of price pressure in the system. Certainly, in the more sophisticated markets, you're going to see a lot of buy one, get one free type of pressure. Actually, within that, the key way to defend your price point and the reason why our business actually is looking pretty good in that context is through innovation. So by having the new forms of Sensodyne, as an example, Repair & Protect has significantly strengthened our price position in the Sensodyne arena. Same is true with new forms of Lucozade in the Nutritionals business and new forms of Panadol, like Panadol Advance, in pain. So those -- the key in Consumer is being able to drive innovation to offset the retailer price negotiation pressure, which is always there but has definitely amped up in the last year or so as the general retail environment has gotten very hostile.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jo Walton from Credit Suisse. Jo Walton - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I have 2 questions, please. Firstly, and I'm sorry to go back to the European situation, just looking at your numbers, we can see that there was a very material price cut of 7% in the second quarter. You said you think that will be the nadir. Would you like to give us some sense as to what the underlying rates you think continuing might be just for us to think about? And the European margin, last year, that European margin was trucking along at about 55%. Now it's trucking along with about 53%. Is this a permanent diminution in margin until new products come through? And my second question is really referring to these newer products. I wonder when you think the leverage might come through because if there's one thing that's happened in the industry, we haven't had many new products. But I can count on the fingers of one hand the new products that have come through that have performed well very quickly. So are we -- when you look at all of our notes that are out there, are we being too optimistic about the timeframe that you can get these admittedly interesting assets through these additional hurdles that are out there in the various markets? And may this be a concern that we have that whilst your products are going to be great in 5 years time, they're still going to be pretty small in 3 years time?

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

Okay, great. I'm going to take 2 of the questions, but ask Simon to talk to the margin point in a second. In terms of the pricing story for Europe, so if there were no new price cuts or initiatives and if parallel trade didn't get worse, sorry for the caveats, then I would expect the 7% that we've seen this quarter to start to go down through 6%, 5% during the rest of this year and the next 2 quarters. My anxiety, of course, is I don't know whether parallel trade is going to get worse or not. And I certainly don't know whether a government's going to announce another price cut. But if there were no new negatives, then that would be the kind of shape of what we know playing through the system and particularly driven by things like the German price impact dropping out. Maybe Simon, to margin, and then I'll come back to the product portfolio.

Simon Dingemans

Management

Yes. Jo, I mean, the margin in the quarter for Europe really reflecting the top line pressure and the mix factors with a lot of generic and parallel trade taking the tail down. I think going forward, if the curve on the top line looks broadly as Andrew has described, I think we would hope the margin might move forward a little bit. But I think remember also, in Europe, we need to invest behind those launches that we have planned. And we're also in the process of looking at how we reallocate some of the resources we have around Europe, how do we best structure those to deal with these tougher environmental conditions. And so I think I wouldn't put a lot in your model in terms of forward progress at this point. But I'm certainly confident that we can make that balance if the sales line delivers as Andrew described. So around the same sort of level, maybe a little bit better, Jo.

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

And then in terms of your concern around the contribution, listen, I think it's a completely reasonable concern. And the last thing I'm going to do here today is make very firm commitments on specific timing of delivery of leverage, given that we haven't finished the job yet of bringing these products successfully to market. So I don't want -- while I think we've got a very significant opportunity, I don't want to get ourselves too far ahead of it in terms of exactly what this is going to drive. Having said that, these assets are now at a stage where if we don't plan for success, we for sure will not get success. So we have to marshal the organization behind these assets because it's exactly what we're doing with the realignment of the organization, particularly under Moncef and under Abbas in the way I've touched on already. As we go forward, what's the likely timing? Well, the beauty of the pipeline, if it stays as it is, is the numbers. And I'll take you back to May 2008 when I first laid out this strategy and we talked about developing an R&D capable of delivering not just one drug but many drugs. That's exactly where we're at. What is the benefit of that? The benefit clearly is we are less vulnerable to one thing being stopped in the process or one slow launch delay. If you play forward over the next couple of years, there's a scenario where we have a building Benlysta product, which we already have. And I continue to be pleased with the quarter-by-quarter progression, not just of the sales but of physician intent to prescribe and all the other leading indicators of that particular drug. You see products like that already in the market…

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Brian Bourdot from Barclays.

Brian Bourdot - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

There's been a lot of discussion about margin operating leverage, and I think I get a lot of it. But I was just wondering if you could help us tie it all together and be clear about what you're saying about expectations for margin expansion going forward. So previously, you had said that you expect some small margin expansion at the operating level in 2012 and then more substantial margin expansion in 2013 and 2014. So I'd just like you to clarify for us, please, what you're saying now if anything about 2013 and 2014 and whether you are perhaps stepping away from that, either because uncertainty around investment requirements has increased. And these things are always -- I think we've always known that, and/or uncertainty around the world economy and in particular, Europe has increased. So could you just, please, sum up now what your expectations for margin expansion in those years, please?

Andrew Philip Witty

Management

No. Listen, obviously, I'm not going to give you guidance for next year. And you know I'm -- to the extent we're going to give you signals for next year, we'll give it to you in February as we normally do. And so I'm going to be careful not to stray into that. But I think the sensible way to think about this is that 20 basis points of opportunity that we had originally hoped we might deliver this year looks not to be there, and we expect to be in line this year versus next. I think at least for the time being, a sensible way to think about this equation is just shift the curve to the left a year. So just think about that, and then we'll update you more specifically when we get to February because then we'll have a much clearer view, another 6, 8 months of pipeline progression, timing, where we are with files. We'll have a much clearer view of what we think the investment needs might be, if there are any that we need to address, and we'll have a much clearer view about exactly where the headwinds are going. And then I think that is the right moment for us to be very precise. But I think in the interim, I think you shouldn't take away from this conversation anything other than there's a shift to the left in terms of what we'd hoped for and recognizing that the first year, this year, was intended to be a very slow takeoff anyway. It's not that material in terms of the way we view the company. And we'll update you in February, once we have much more information to give you a much clearer view, and we'll give you a sense then. Listen, with that, I want to thank everybody for joining the call today. We obviously appreciate your interest. The IR team are available to take your calls. And once again, thanks for your time this afternoon.