Earnings Labs

GSK plc (GSK)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 6, 2013

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Transcript

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Okay, good afternoon everybody. Welcome, thanks very much for coming to the GSK Annual Results. We’ll obviously as usual I’ll take you through a few slides, just to frame where we think things are at maybe cover a couple of the highlights from the results announcement today. And then Simon will take you through more of the detail, give you a sense of maybe shape a little bit of the year to come, and then most importantly give you the chance to ask any questions you might want to have. Just a highlight to you, we have David Redfern in the room here, who is our Head of Strategy for the Company, very busy last year buying HGS shares in Theravance, the Indian business, Shionogi and few other things. So he’s been very active for us and has come out here for a rest. So it would be quite good, if you asked him lots of really difficult questions, so he doesn’t relax that much. Let me take you through results, before I do that, unfortunately I think as many of this I needed to share with you the statement and hopefully to draw your attention to it, and you can probably recite it better than I can. Let me move on to where we are as a group. Nothing is changing in terms of the strategy of the Company, but clearly as we move through the last few years, as things becoming clearer and clearer of what GSK really is. I think we’ve got a very clear case of a balanced business, balanced exposure geographically, a balanced exposure across our different sectors, our consumer business, our vaccines business and pharmaceutical business and also some very good opportunity around the development of our pipeline of new products. So good balance,…

Simon Dingemans

Management

Thanks Andrew. Clearly, as Andrew has highlighted 2012 was a challenging year and one by looking back on it turned out to be a lot more challenging than we had expected at the beginning of the year. But I am very pleased with how the business performed and responded during the course of the year to those challenges, and equally pleased that we were able to deliver on the updated guidance that we gave you back in October, delivering sales broadly in line with last year, flat excluding the drag from the OTC disposals, and earnings per share flat on the year before. Europe was obviously a key issue for us to deal with during the course of the year, and in fact if you look at the near £400 million drag that Europe introduced to the Group, that reflects basically all of the downturn that we saw at the group level as well. So you can see the sort of scale of the challenge that we have to deal with. And I think what made it particularly difficult to respond to, was the way in which the formal austerity measures really spread in a very diverse way across the continent and really played out in different markets in very different ways, which meant the business had to become a lot more agile, a lot more adept in tackling those challenges, and I think the business has responded very well, and even though, today we’ve announced a number of changes, and some restructuring charges to put Europe on to a sound of footing, if that’s not where we’ve started from already a number of changes during the latter part of last year, and already we’ve taken a number of resources and reallocated them across the business to make sure that…

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Okay, thank you very much Simon. And let's open up for questions please. Francisco Ruiz Martin – Exane BNP Paribas: Good afternoon Francisco, Exane BNP Paribas. Few quick questions, first on emerging markets, could you tell us what is behind the success and the quick performance of this division this year, is it due to the restructuring your earnings last year, or is it due to a certain measures, I remember a few years ago you presented a slide where we saw a curve in India you have decreased massively the price, and at the same time you’ve also kind of strong increasing volumes. My second question is on the recently launched products, could you share with us, if there is some new dynamics on new products there, because they were present still 7% of your total turn over? And third one, on the restructuring, could you share with us, could you give us color on what’s new could be done at Glaxo on the restructuring simultaneously in Europe. No later than yesterday some of your competitors suggested that, if you want to keep some pricing power in Europe, you need to keep some operations and some business like in the research high value added business. Thank you.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Okay, great, thanks. So in terms of the EM success, first of all I am very proud of the performance there, because we continue to see very robust growth, we were at the warble at the beginning of last year with the Arab Spring really in the Middle East. But since then we've seen a very strong recovery, what are the key observations, first of all, actually it‘s a very broad base, so every region in REM business portfolio has had a very continue to do very well, Latina, Middle East and Africa, even the least developed countries growing dramatically, very strong China performance, very good India performance, very good Russia performance actually. So across the board, we’re seeing all the regions move well, and in a funny away, it’s very analogous to consumer. Consumer is also delivering very broad multi-region, multi-category growth, which I’m very encouraged about, it feels very sustainable action. So that’s the key, how is that happening again, again we’ve seen across all the key products, I think in the top 15 products in emerging markets, the only product that didn’t grow last year was Cervarix, because it was rolling off some big tenants, every single other product was growing. So it was very deep growth, within that, you’ve got products like Votrient, going great, we got products like Synflorix and new products going great and you’ve also got Ventolin [Zina], and when was the last time we have talked about Zina again, chipped in about £10 million pounds of growth last year. And so all the way through that portfolio, what does that reflect; I think an increasing ability to drive access of every product. So where we’ve got all the products we’ve used price typically to drive our way into another tier of the…

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Let me tell you the last two, and then I will hand over to Simon. I'm not going to comment on any of the cases because as always, we feel particularly today of all days when we've just released our results, we feel fully provided for undisclosed around all of our legal situations. So there is actually nothing to add from what we've got, and as you might know that, I think this might have been the first ever GSK annual results, where there were no new legal observations in the report which if you haven't got to that page, you should have look at it and delve on it and enjoy it, just as I did yesterday. So but nothing to add on that and I think it would make no sense to go further into it. In terms of the continuous process manufacture, we've already started to deploy so the first units were payment stores last year. The first pipeline assets which have been developed to call are moving through the process. So not the lead ones, but the next wave coming through, for example, in the rare disease space, particularly those have been focused on. But we’ve already started to deploy the first production versions in the U.K. factories we’ll continue to now do that, as we go forward. And actually I think the biggest level will be so these two, there are really three big areas one I won’t go into today, but two big ones I’ve touched on, one is continuous process manufacturing, the other is enzymatic reaction, replacement of synthetic chemistry. So I’ve said we’ve already started to deploy that as well, and we will continue to implement that as we go through the next few years.

Simon Dingemans

Management

Tax, so I think on the tax front, clearly we wouldn’t have taken the charge or put through the restructuring unless we thought that was more to go for. I’m not going to get into any further guidance than the one we’ve for the we’re giving in other circumstances as well, but we think they are all good opportunities, but remember not everything you put in the U.K. is going to get in the patent box, we’re still going to have a very big U.S. business if the pipeline come through so the tax rate there will remain relevant and so you have to look at the overall mix as to how far we can go, we have already made quite a lot of progress, and I will guidance a year ahead as we can see that within uncertainty, but back to where we started we wouldn’t have done it, if we didn’t think there is big opportunity. Andrew Baum – Citigroup: Yeah great. Graham Parry – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Thanks, Graham Parry from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. And first on your drinks strategic review in the press release, it reads more of a geographic expansion that you’re leaning towards rather than divestment, are we reading that correctly and if that’s the case if you sorted to do in analysis you had what incremental spend would be required to achieve that. And secondly in the release in your, see your initial comments it talks about margins improving over the medium term, just wondering if you could define medium term is that two to three years and previously you’ve talked about potentially capping margins at about mid-30s, are you still thinking that’s an achievable level given the environment you are facing in Europe. And then on the £1 billion savings, could you split that out a little bit more between how much is R&D, how much is Europe, and where the R&D savings come from and if your new manufacturing technologies included in those savings of the enzymatic manufacturing for example.

Simon Dingemans

Management

Great. Okay. So as far as the drinks is considered, I think you are probably slightly misread in the – there is no signal in the press release that is going to be one thing or the other one, what the press release signals to you is it currently a geographically ban. I think you can interpret from that either, you might conclude we should invest significantly, trying to globalize or maybe somebody who’s got global distribution capacity a better owner, so you could end up either end of the parameter based on that observation, so you shouldn’t necessarily read anything into that specifically. As far as margin is concerned obviously we have moved to give you EPS guidance we are not going to get into detailed discussion of the various line items, I think the bottom line for all of this in the short term, we are not really expecting anything dramatic to happen up in the margin structure, but equally we are not going to spend another year talking about 20 basis points here today, so we thought it probably better today all of our lives easier and more enjoyable and just focus on one number of the bottom. In terms of what I defined as mid-term I would say the 3 to 5 years is mid-term in this industry, I continue to have exactly the view I’d always held which is the margin as the function of sales growth in this business, and the pace of margin expansion would correlate with sales growth and the more the sales growth comes from the higher margin U.S. Japanese business is the faster role of that we’ll play together. So for me that’s really the piece. Is it possible we could end up in that situation of 35s entirely possible.…

Simon Dingemans

Management

The first part of it all, but not all of it. Next question, yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. (Inaudible) from Morgan Stanley. Just a few topics, Andrew, we’ve seen one of your competitors in the UK trying to launch major products while restructuring and not doing a very good job of it. I was just wondering how you’re thinking about that, given the importance with compared to 2% of big launches in Europe or should we be thinking about it as other companies to get a good price in Europe for the reference opportunity internationally. Then on to vaccines, could you just refresh on that, when you look at the portfolio, the technology that you got in vaccines, any gaps that you see I think in the past for a few years you did open to potentially entering JVs with a lot of vaccine players. And then lastly just on diabetes, I think your introductory remarks hint to what you might be thinking, the diabetes base is getting more competitive, just whether you feel you’ve got that resource to potentially launch and support? Thanks.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Yeah. So in terms of the last one first, albiglutide diabetes we’ve begun a process of looking for commercialization partner, particularly essentially a co-promotion partner for the U.S. and either co-promotion or a marketing partner in Europe, so that processes is underway, we’ve been upfront about that. I think it’s of the lead pipeline that is clearly the one drug where we don’t have established infrastructure sufficient scale, and we don’t necessarily have the portfolio to really playing there on our own. So we want to explore whether or not there’s a good proposition there with somebody, and actually judging by some of the interest that it looks like there probably is, so that absolutely we are looking at vaccine technologies. One of the things we really wanted and we’ve been looking at for a long time and we secured last week was a low-cost scenario of vaccine opportunity particularly for the developing world, and that’s why we did the deal last week with BioLease, so actually feel like we plugged what was really the last significant gap within the mix. The rest of it we continue to do small acquisitions of technologies here and there and you will see but those tend to be a bit below the radar, but end up being important, but beyond that, I think we are in decent shape. In terms of respiratory, yeah we are very focused on that question, which is one of the reasons why I mean you see absolutely no reference to restructure in the U.S. in this conversation today, because it’s all about the U.S. getting ready to launch products and clearly the front-end of the commercialization curve has to be about America, so America is all about stable locking what we have got, locking what we are doing, no more changes, no re-organization exactly to your point. Europe, yes, it’s a risk but what we are doing is what as I mentioned some of the job in Europe is to reallocate as well as reduce and respiratory as a beneficiary of the reallocation, so actually the respiratory organizations in many countries will be getting strengthened rather than necessarily reduce, so I can’t say there is zero risk there, but I also recognize that although we should get relatively Europe is a relatively rapid primary regulator if all goes well, it’s a very slow price negotiator so we have a reasonable amount of time before we practically have the challenge in Europe, and we are not everywhere, but in large number of places the respiratory business will not be affected negatively or that should be affected positively because we obviously that’s the one of the key pieces of future opportunity everywhere in the world, but including of course Europe. Next question? Alexander, two probably may be six. Go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. Okay, so two…

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

You’re going to ask the same question.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Promise that it will be different.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Okay.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

One question just on run rates, in terms of different geographies, firstly, on Europe would it be fair to say you are talking about 2013 that we are going to have pricing mid single-digit, and then 0% to 1% volume headwind, so the 6% down that we saw in Q4. That is a possible run rate for this year. And in the emerging markets there was an acceleration in Q4, but then there is the issue that you had some vaccine tenders, what were run rate actually look like there for this year plays out, and would that be a fair run rate?

Simon Dingemans

Management

So as far as again I don't want to get into the huge amounts of very specific kind of guidance, but clearly for Europe we expect some in mid-single digits. As I said to you, we've seen basically over the last year Europe for us B+ plus 10 minus 1, that type of territory. Obviously, we’re focused on making sure that volume moves backing off where exactly why I said, I think we should be moving results back into some areas, not just reducing. So our goal is to improve the volume profile in Europe, there’s not a lot I can do about some of those price pressures, although at the moment we would expect it to be a tad lower than it was on average last year. Given is what we think ought to be a little bit better outlook for Europe initially, but still negative, right. As far as the emerging markets are concerned, I don’t think Q4 run rate is a run rate you should project, absolutely not. I think you should continue to expect lumpy quarters coming out particularly from Em, because it is particularly influenced by vaccines. I do think that high single-digit, double-digit annualized run rate is – I think that is a reasonable kind of place to be looking for as we go forward. And if you look at the way in which many of our peer group companies are falling short of that, I’d be very happy, if we can continue to click along at those sorts of rates. But to do that, we need all those geographies to keep running in the way I described, we need to keep winning vaccine tenders year-on-year et cetera, et cetera. A good news is I think we’ve taken a clear view on things like price cuts in India and China, I think they’ve come out more or less where we have no surprises, so we’re not coming into the year feeling like there has been a big negative surprise in any of the Em effect, pretty much the opposite. And that leaves us reasonably confident, and I think around being able to maintain a decent clip, you’ve heard me say before, there will be a disaster of currency devaluation in the queue somewhere in the Ems, just I have to hope it’s not a big sum.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

The other one I want to ask is R&D, I got that R&D to be flat this year, it is the cost savings within R&D, I mean it could stay flat for a while or should we think that that’s maybe one-off and it’s still going to creep up?

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Well, I think we should, so R&D has done I think a phenomenal in GSK of delivering huge output for essentially a full in investment, because within the overall R&D number, we’ve seen increases in areas like dermatology, HIV, consumer vaccines and basically all funded by reductions in pharma and most of the pipeline has come from pharma. So you’ve got a very significant achievement there. I don’t think that’s going to continue, and I’m not pushing them to make that happen. So my brief to R&D now is don’t over-fixate on reducing cost, totally focus on delivering pipelines, all about quality of pipeline and sustainability of pipeline. Now they will of course, continue to do that at a sensible level, we are not out there looking to disrupt R&D. We feel like we’ve got a good model, and I would say that while I think as Simon does, that there is not going to be anything very exciting going on around the R&D lines. I’d tell you right now, if Moncef and Patrick came to me this afternoon and said Andrew, we need £200 million to do project X, I’d say yes, right, and I wouldn’t lose a minute sleep about making that decision, even if it meant the R&D bumped up, and I think that that’s exactly the right way to think about the business. So no big drama, nobody should be expecting this to get into a steady growth. It probably is going to be more or less where is, but it might bump up and down if it does, it will be opportunity driven. and I think that’s the right signal to send to the R&D organization.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Alexandra, do you have another one.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Three.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Good.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

When I look at your second slide, which has put these categorized your businesses into four different boxes. so that seems to, that seemed to neatly fit into the sort of good old ECG metrics of the stars and the dollars and the cash goes in the rising stars, and the way you touch on some of the potential strategies for what seems to be the dock in the portfolio. Europe seems to also sort of confirm that this metrics, the good old metrics actually shape the thinking. so is Europe actually at risk to have some true doc features as a no gross and potentially at risk of no longer earnings across the capital as Axit maybe the only solution. so albeit that there was just relatively unattractive, but that’s still the good return business. Second question is for Simon, what, how have you amended your planning process at the end of last year, so that this year we will – you can allow that you’re not going to be surprised by an environment that is more negative and you planned for. And the third question is I’m really surprised that nobody has asked that yet is what catalyst are you most nervous for in this year?

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Okay. So in terms of Europe, for me it’s our own growth. So Europe is a very high return business actually, it remains a very profitable business for us, a good business for us from that perspective, and obviously, it’s a very significant volume business. so even on a bad day, you look at Europe and you size if people had businesses this size with this kind of structure and this kind of cash production, you’d say this is a great business, the challenges around growth. so we know that almost every other part of GSK, not withstanding, we make a huge mistake, or there is some unforcing torpedo that’s said to go way is set for growth. and Europe is that one place where it’s very difficult to get superconfident and that you can create scenarios. But if you start your analysis in macroeconomics, it’s quite hard to convince yourself that Europe is going to become a strong growth environment, and that is very hard to do that. And so I think it isn’t, oh my god, this is a room through which we’re going to believe today, which I think as you’ll kind of, you must exit, it’s most subtle in that. it’s more around all the strategies where you can absolutely hit the suite spot of maximizing your overall growth position for the company by doing things differently in Europe. I’m not maybe accessing the pipeline without any incremental investment by using partners in the albiglutide scenario. So that’s one scenario. it may be other more dramatic approaches, but that’s the focus is around how do you, all the smarter ways to deal with the challenge of Europe been a low-to-no growth environment against the backdrop of 80% of the rest of the group being a very healthy growth proposition. and what are the pros and cons of how you do it, if that’s really the case not the return model is fine, it’s much more that impact on growth, which in reality, this sector is a growth rated sector. and we want to make sure that we’re really asking the tough questions and maybe there’s nothing we can do, and maybe the best you can do is organic, supercharged housekeeping, which is what we’re doing, plus sensible partnering and investment minimization. And that’s it, maybe that’s all that’s available. but before we conclude that, we want to make sure we’ve covered the broad parameter and not excluded things, just because nobody has never done them before. Okay, planning?

Simon Bicknell

Management

We made a number of changes actually back in 2011 in terms of how we integrate the plans across the company. I think there is kind of two elements of this, which is how you develop the plan in the first place and then how you monitor it. And so I think what we took away from last year was really a monitoring question of how do we improve the visibility, and that was quite challenging in the middle of the year given the way in which some of the austerity measures we’re playing out. But we now have improved our feedback loop, so that it’s not just quarterly, it’s obviously multitimes during a quarter that would check in that we’re on track without burdening the business, because you can kind of suffocate the business with re-planning if you’re not careful. But we can get that now through the finance organization very quickly, because the finance organization is much closer to the business than it was historically. So there is much better monitoring going on. But fundamentally, it’s much more about the drill down of the plan process we went through at the end of last year to say, okay, what is much more real, what is the realistic target that we have from the different regions, how is that built up from a product-by-product basis, and that’s not something that’s being done before at that level of detail. Where are we allocating resources from the return’s point of view back to the European differentiation we just talked about. So I think that’s the reason we feel more comfortable about the position we’ve laid out for you in terms of 2013 is that we’re starting with a more robust place in the first place, and we have better alarm systems in terms of what we then might need to do to reallocate.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

I think that’s why it’s fair to say we drilled much harder on the downsize.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yeah.

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

And if I think back to 2011, I think probably that budget was more or less locked in October, November and the European budget for GSK 2013 was locked last week. So we really, whereas the last year, we carried in some assumptions, which we’re already on a day before we started. this year, we’ve been a lot more cautious in terms of trying to load in what we think of the downsize, we may not be pessimistic enough who knows, but I think we’ve tried much harder than last year. and by rating until a very, very, very last minute to try and maximize all in all if we could, which is sort of obvious in hindsight. but clearly, when you not really, historically Europe has always been something very exciting, but it’s always been reliable. and then suddenly, you get a change where it really significantly stepped out of this trend for us that clearly is not something we want to happen again. so that focuses have been much more intent.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

(Inaudible)

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

No.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

(Inaudible)

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Finally enough, are confident – actually we’re slightly optimistic by interesting that. And so if we’ve done in the other way, right, if we carried on the old practice, we probably would have had a lower number for Europe, not for the group necessarily, but we’ve probably been slightly more pessimistic in October and beyond now, I wouldn’t say it was materially different, but a little bit different.

Simon Dingemans

Management

In the checks that I talked about to give you how accurately are you forecasting and are you delivering in and I think we feel a lot better about the visibility we have compared to the middle of last year when not basically disappeared?

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

In terms of catalyst’s nervousness. I mean one level I’m nervous about the mole, right. but I think for me, it really is a story of the portfolio on the pipeline, and I said what makes me most nervous despite five years of talking about it, is that people watch as that you guys don’t look at the portfolio, and you look just at one asset. so the whole strategy of the group from the first day I took over was this is not about recreating a blockbuster dependent business, it’s about chronic rate of portfolio of assets, which then complement the portfolio of geographies and portfolio of businesses. we’re right on the verge of doing that. and the only thing that makes me nervous is that people obsess watching one event in a portfolio of events, because I think that would be, is a complete misread of how we’re viewing it. so we’re viewing this as the first six, if you will definitive readouts will start to happen at regulator’s review. we’ll get two huge readouts around those three and the repletive, which we’ve always signaled a highly binary and risky, but nonetheless pretty interesting to get. and then we’re going to get 13 other sets of data rolling through the year, ‘14 I would say, the date rolling through the year, which underpin the next step of drugs. and for me, it’s all about what is the total composite yield from all of those catalyst, that’s my nervousness is, can I generate or will the Company generate a good yield. I’m nervous that other people watching us will fix on one event and it will be a big mistake, because that’s not what we’re trying do, it’s never been the goal, it’s always been about chronic produce the…

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

So on that one, they are both under standard review. In terms of sales force productivity in the U.S., actually all the metrics we’re seeing show improvement or better on things like service levels, customer engagement access, huge increases in access to physicians who didn’t use to see us. Access to an accounts who never saw us before. So integrated systems as an example, and significant improvements in product performance, and particularly in those areas where we have not accessed. And we’ve seen very, perhaps no evidence of any negative from a tool actually. As you will also see, our U.S. business is stabilizing, right. So it’s stop rolling and it’s beginning to look a bit more encouraging in terms of its overall performance. And I think all of that together the performance of Promacta, Votrient and other newer products, also I think reflect nothing lost in terms of the sales force changes at all. So I continue to believe, I know there’s an awful lot of people who want to see this sale. I continue to believe this is totally the right things we’ve done in the business, in the industry, and it sits absolutely, perfectly with way the Affordable Care Act is going drive changes and behavior in the volume side of the healthcare economy. And I think it’s met with a lot of positive engagement, particularly from the integrated healthcare systems, which now are increasingly dominating in leading edge of the market. So I think from that point of view, it is fine. EU pricing, and last year, there was probably about two points, which was kind of Seretide special pricing, almost all of it coming out of Germany, and almost all of it in the first three quarters of the year. Remember that the German price…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

(Inaudible)

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

Yeah. I have nothing to say on that. let’s take on day time with the new products. Thanks. Yeah, please. Mark Clark – Deutsche Bank: :

Sir Andrew Witty

Management

So as far as the least developed countries, it does grow faster than the average. and it is a very small proportion of the total. so it’s less than, I think I’m going to say it’s less than 2% or 3%, the Ems, it’s a small part. the Ems are dominated by Middle East, India, Latin, China, so the LDC group is small, very fast growing, doing a great job I think actually, but not a material element of the overall Em business. Simon?

Simon Dingemans

Management

On the quarters, I think a kind of the principle issue takeaways we don’t manage the business, the quarters, and we don’t manage the cost base of the quarters, as we did this year in 2012, we’re holding quite a lot of cost in the business to support the ongoing growth drivers as well as get behind the pipeline. and so as the revenue takes that comparative hit in Q1, I think you should expect to see quite a lot of pressure on the margin as a result, which will then roll out as you go into the balance of the year, and I think just to pick up a point on the emerging markets that we touched on earlier, remember that is also quite a lumpy business even in its ongoing mix. So the visibility we have obtained today would suggest that Q1 on the emerging market side is kind of relatively thinner than last year, quite a lot of that volume shifts to the second half of the year from a trend point of view, say that’s sort of doubled impact of managing Q1. But we’re not going to pull the cost back, just because of that, we’re going to continue to invest. The rest of the one offs that we’ve highlighted, and I think as I said in my presentation. yeah, there are one-offs, because they’re lumpy. it doesn’t mean that we’re not continuing to look for similar opportunities and we put those in the overall positive value that we’re releasing from the company that we can reinvest or drop to the bottom line. And they again will not be managed to the quarters, though come when they come.