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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 3, 2022

$4.50

-3.43%

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Transcript

Gaurav Mehta

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Conference Call. Joining us today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; Beatriz García-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer; and Benoist Ollivier, our Chief Operating Officer and Deputy CEO. Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I’m going to read brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe’s most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available on our web page, www.ferroglobe.com. In addition, the discussion today includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, net debt, adjusted earnings – diluted earnings per share, which are all non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of these non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. Next slide, please. On today’s call, we will first review the business highlights for the fourth quarter and full year. We will then also give you a perspective on our operating environment and provide an update on the status of our transformation plan. Then we’ll provide you an update on our financial performance and key drivers behind our results. And finally, we’re going to provide a trading update before opening the line up for some Q&A. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Marco Levi, our CEO.

Marco Levi

Management

Thank you, Gaurav, and good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. I am really excited to present our quarterly results, which demonstrate the acceleration in earnings potential that we have been anticipating and which caps off an important year for Ferroglobe. Overall, the acceleration in our performance in Q4 is supported by strong fundamentals across all three product categories, which will further fuel performance in 2022. Moreover, the tightness in the marketplace resulting from robust demand, coupled with flat to declining supply as a result in an unprecedented increase in the index pricing for our products, primarily silicon and ferrosilicon. During the quarter and the full year, we realized only a partial benefit from this run-up in prices, particularly in silicon metal due to the fixed price nature of most of these contracts. However, with the top contracts expiring at the end of 2021, we will have increased exposure towards index-based contracts, resulting in higher pricing driving an increase in margins and revenues. In our silicon-based alloys portfolio, we realized the benefit much quicker given the nature of these contracts and shorter lags. And in manganese alloys, the spread is holding at very healthy levels with support from the steel industry, which is still recovering to pre-COVID levels of production. While the broader market provides an exciting backdrop, we remain focused on the areas which are in our control. This is primarily related to our value creation areas identified as part of our turnaround plan. 2021 market, marked the first year of the execution phase of the plan. We have surpassed our targets and have a great deal of momentum continuing in 2022. In aggregate, 2021 marked an important year for Ferroglobe, with several critical accomplishments. We refinanced our debt and de-risked our balance sheet by extending maturities. We successfully raised…

Marco Levi

Management

Thank you, Beatriz. Referring now to the trading update on Slide 18. Ferroglobe does not regularly provide quarterly or annual guidance, nor does it plan on doing so in the future? Giving the unprecedented pricing environment and particularly the reset of our silicon metal contract, there have been questions around the implication on our financials. In order to provide some clarity given the unique circumstances, we want to take this opportunity to comment on a few dynamics we are currently encountering and provide this onetime flash number for January. Our unaudited adjusted EBITDA is estimated at approximately $74 million for the month of January 2022. During January, the top-line benefit is largely attributable to the robust pricing environment across the product portfolio in Q4, which impacts all our index-based contracts in Q1. As a reminder, our index-based silicon metal contracts are reset on a quarterly basis and are tied to the prior quarter’s average index pricing. For ferrosilicon, the line share of our annual ferrosilicon contracts are index-based. While most of these are recalculated on a quarterly basis, some of a month lag. And finally, for our manganese alloys portfolio, the majority of business gets repriced on a quarterly basis. Hence, our top-line, we will evolve with the market plus the inherent lag in our industry. And on the cost side, we continue to be challenged by higher energy costs and inflationary impact on selected inputs. Overall, we had margin expansion during the month of January relative to Q4 levels. Looking beyond January, we continue to face pressures from energy and inflation. Additionally, the nature of our business inherently exposes us to new risks tied to geopolitical, regulatory and natural events. The heartbreaking developments in Ukraine over the past week are being monitored very closely as Russia, Ukraine and the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research. Please ask your question.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon everyone.

Marco Levi

Management

Hi, Martin.

Martin Englert

Analyst

On the electricity costs across Europe, can you provide an update regarding Spain and potential move to a longer-term PPA agreement? Or do you feel that those prospects maybe have diminished given the ongoing conflict? And maybe just a broader update across some of the other countries as well, France and Norway.

Marco Levi

Management

Yes, we’ll start providing some qualitative comments first. Looking at Spain, the cost of energy has been extremely volatile. If you look at the evolution in the market in the second half of last year, it moved from a level of €50, €60 per megawatt touching the €400 per megawatt ballpark. Then if you readjusted down, and due to the recent unfortunate events, the price bumped up north of €340 per megawatts. In terms of market, this has been – we live in an extremely volatile market, and we need to keep on addressing the issue on how to operate our plan. Concerning PPAs, we have been active looking at opportunities. There are definitely small opportunities available in 2022 for the second half, but they are small. While there are broader opportunities for 2023 on. So this is pretty much the situation. Looking at the other countries, we are covered by contract in all – for energy on all the other major geographies where we operate like France, United States and South Africa. So this is why my – which I have stressed the situation in France – in Spain, sorry.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that detail there. Looking across silicon metals, silicon alloys and manganese, there were some positive surprises in the fourth quarter volumes, at least versus what I had modeled there. But taking into account your augmented regional capacity in 2022, how should we think about volumes across the business segments here?

Marco Levi

Management

Yes. I think you should – well, first of all, the comment that I want to make is that in quarter four excluding the incident in Beverley and the capacity adjustments in Spain, our assets have been more reliable than in quarter four, Overall, looking at the volume projections for 2022, they would be rather flat across the various value centers. The only exception is related to the additional volumes that we’re going to produce in Selma, which are silicon-related. Another observation that might be useful – you noticed the stream – volumes versus history of manganese alloys in quarter four. But this has been heavily impacted, like I said, by more than 20,000 tons of orders that have been shifted from quarter three to quarter four. So you can consider the quarterly quantities of manganese alloys – sorry, volumes of manganese alloys around 75,000 tons per quarter.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Thank you for that. And more specifically, maybe on silicon metal with the puts and takes of some ramping capacity here in Selma and then the augmented capacity in Spain, but is on a forward basis net-net. Does that looks like something like 60,000, 65,000 per quarter as we move through 2022?

Marco Levi

Management

You are correct. You’re right on the spot.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Thank you for that. One other one, if I could. Given the situation in Ukraine, Russia, can you talk in a little bit more details about the puts and takes covering the upstream input supply, some of the risks there and the potential implications on the alloy prices? I know you covered some of this in the prepared remarks and release, but any more detail that you can provide is helpful. Thank you.

Marco Levi

Management

Yes. Well, first of all, talking about the inputs, everybody knows that Russia plays an absolutely critical role in the supply of gas to Europe. So – and you are seeing this immediate reaction of the market to the war. Talking about raw materials, Russia is a big supplier to the industry of electrodes, anthracite, metcoke and some magnesium as well, so some critical raw materials for other products – for this product. And so the uncertainty is around the supply of these key raw materials to our industry. In particular, there are – most of our plants in the United States run based on carbon electrodes imported from Russia. But we have mitigation actions. Since day one, we have identified some mitigation initiatives. As you know, we are back integrated with electrodes produced in China. So, we are increasing our production of electrodes in China to mitigate this – the specific issue of electrodes. Another plant which is particularly impacted on the short-term plant in France in Maurice and we are trying to address the issue of the electrodes by purchasing electrodes, in advance and making all the possible creative solutions to get the materials that we have ordered and arriving on time and – some of the electrodes in Maurice. For all the raw materials that I have mentioned before, since day one and before, we have put in place the mitigation plan to look at alternative supply and also due to the improved cash situation of the company, we have been putting in place plans to buy raw materials in advance in build some stock.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Thanks for the detail. Can you talk about some of the looking further downstream at ferrosilicon, manganese alloys and some of the regions there. Russia, Ukraine, I think they’re pretty dominant producers in the region with ferrosilicon maybe around 40%, 50% of the regional capability. Manganese alloys in Ukraine, I think it’s over 40%. And Russia is also a key exporter of ferrosilicon into the U.S. market there. I guess when you weigh the puts and takes with the risks around the input materials and consumables but there may be some tightness, I guess, in the regional and/or traded selling prices for some of these alloys across two of your segments, right?

Marco Levi

Management

Yes. Absolutely, you’re absolutely right. Russia is a major producer of ferrosilicon they produce also silicon. Well, in Ukraine, you have quite a powerful center production of ferrosilicon. And manganese alloys, clearly, like there is uncertainty on the supply of raw materials and growth. By definition, there is uncertainty on the overall supply, particularly out of Ukraine, of these products, but also out of Russia, depending on what’s going to happen with the overall banking system. So the situation is too fresh to make a weighted assessment of the plus and minuses. But to cut it to the point, our impression is that our – we will have opportunities in the market. The point is are we going to be able to procure all the raw materials to be able to supply these quantities and let’s not forget the evolution of the energy cost and what is going to be the sustainability of our end markets to absorb the cost of energy.

Martin Englert

Analyst

Thanks for all your thoughts there on the incremental color. Congratulations on the record results and navigating the dynamic environment.

Marco Levi

Management

Thank you, Martin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Phill Larson from Mill Street Capital. Please ask your question.

Phill Larson

Analyst

Hi everyone. Yes, congrats on a great quarter and appreciate all the color on kind of the Russian-Ukraine situation. I just had a quick question on the new Spanish loan that’s $35 million. Could you share with us the planned use of proceeds for that? Beatriz García-Cos: Yes. Thank you for the question. Beatriz speaking. So, as I mentioned during the call, this is a loan that we get from the Spanish government from a fund that the Spanish government is managing that is called SEPI and tries to fund strategic companies for Spain. And as such, we expect to use the funds and spend the funds in Spain to boost our operations in the country.

Phill Larson

Analyst

Okay. I mean do you have any more detail you could share on that? Are you using it to offset the energy costs? Or what specific do you do with that money? Beatriz García-Cos: Well, yes, of course, part of the funds would be used to put our working capital needs in Spain, but not directly, maybe linked to the electricity effect, if I may say that.

Phill Larson

Analyst

Okay, thank you. Beatriz García-Cos: You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of David McFadyen from Aegon Asset Management. Please ask your question.

David McFadyen

Analyst

Hi, thanks for the call. Can I just ask a little bit more on the Ukraine-Russia dynamics? You obviously talked about how you’re planning to buying raw materials in advance, et cetera. But should the situation go on for a long time? Do you have a pain in your head as to how long this could go on before it causes a real issue with lack of access to Russian supply of raw materials for your business? And in terms of the mitigation plans that you’ve put in place so far, have you got enough mitigants in place to be able to run the business as you’d expect along the lines of the business plan that you put out recently?

Marco Levi

Management

Yes. I mean the – you asked a very difficult question, because it’s nobody knows how the situation is going to evolve. Hopefully, I think everybody should hope for as quick as possible resolution of the current situation. But going a little bit more in detail. Overall, we have – talking about our sales, we have no direct business in silicon metal or ferrosilicon or manganese alloys to this kind of geographies. We have minor sales of foundry business only. So on the revenue side, there is no big impact. Talking about raw materials, that we buy from Russia. We buy metcoke. They’re used mainly for the manganese production. So metcoke goes mainly to our facilities in Dunkirk and Mo I Rana. We buy anthracite is used as well for the production of manganese for manganese alloys. A large part of our carbon electrodes comes from Russia, particularly, like I mentioned before, to supply the United States. Magnesium, we buy approximately 25% of our needs from Russia. We buy the graphite electrodes and some electrode paste as well. Talking about the assets that – Ferroglobe assets that are impacted these raw materials, when you talk about electrodes, we’re talking mainly, like I said, U.S. And so our plants in alloy, Beverley and Selma in France, Montricher, when I talk about manganese alloys, Dunkirk is the main facility that could be impacted. Magnesium is mainly our facility in Beverly, Ohio. The issue of lack of electrode based impacts Bridgeport, Bécancour and European plants. So the – this is the situation. Now, we have developed a contingency plan for each one of these plants. Trying to do the following things: one, try to get the materials that we have ordered as soon as possible at our plans to build some stock. Second, we have alternative suppliers. So we are, of course, moving volumes to alternative suppliers and these are the main two initiatives that we have all across this critical raw materials. Now of course, with time, in case the situation lasted for a long time and we couldn’t get supplied from Russia, we need to make sure that we implement as fast as possible our mitigation plans and we increase the supply from alternative geographies.

David McFadyen

Analyst

Thanks. That’s useful. And if from your alternative suppliers, would you still be able to run the business volume level that you run it in 2021?

Marco Levi

Management

Yes. I do not have a final assessment of this situation because this situation is about nine days old about, but this is our objective.

David McFadyen

Analyst

No, I understand tough situation has put everyone to parse out exactly how it might pan out and how long it might take as you saw. No, thanks. I just – the only other thing I would ask you quickly on is, obviously you’ve had puts and takes on urban credit costs, to credit costs. How much – do you have an outlook for that impact on the business for the rest of this year? Obviously, and this has moved around a little bit, but do you have an outlook for whether those prices are going to continue to be elevated how impact the business through the next year?

Marco Levi

Management

Sorry, are you referring to a CO2 credit, right?

David McFadyen

Analyst

Yes. Yes.

Marco Levi

Management

Your question is around that.

David McFadyen

Analyst

Yes.

Benoist Ollivier

Analyst

Sorry. So on – sorry, on CO2 credits, sorry, I didn’t understand properly your question.

David McFadyen

Analyst

Just the outlook for the costs of CO2 credits potentially for the business this year, view on potential pricing and how that exactly works on how to impact this segment.

Benoist Ollivier

Analyst

We expect our CO2 credits to meet – to cover more CO2 credits than last year. Then this being said, the CO2 value is also displaying a very, very high volatility and is impacted also by the current prices. And today, it’s trading around €66 per ton of CO2. One month ago or a few weeks ago, we’re at 95. A few months before, we were 65. So there’s a very, very strong volatility, which is – which makes your question fairly difficult to answer.

David McFadyen

Analyst

Yes. No, it makes sense. It’s a tricky environment with all these costs. Okay, thanks. Thanks very much.

Benoist Ollivier

Analyst

Thank you. Beatriz García-Cos: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions. I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Marco Levi, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Marco Levi

Management

Thank you. This concludes our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. While I am pleased, we were accomplishments and performance in 2021 particularly given this company is coming from. I recognize that there is tremendous more value to unlock. We look to build on the current momentum and expect a significant improvement in the company’s performance in 2022 as we continue to execute on our near-term strategy and aim to create value for all our stakeholders. Thanks again for your participation. We look forward to hearing from you on the next call. Have a great day.