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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 15, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Thank you, Nadia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz García-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide #2. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and exhibits to those filings, which are available on our web page at ferrogloble.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, net debt, and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer.

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Thank you, Alex, and good day to everybody. Thanks for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your interest in Ferroglobe. I would like to briefly comment on our safety record improvements as our employees are our most valuable asset. Over the past 18 months, the rate of lost time injuries declined by 66% based on our rolling 3-month data, approaching best-in-class industry standards. One of our top priorities is providing a safe work environment for our employees. And we will continue to focus on providing the safest possible workplace. Our solid results in the second quarter reinforce our strong execution and ability to successfully navigate a challenging market. Sales increased 14% and adjusted EBITDA increased 136% to $106 million over the prior year quarter. Our cash balance reached $363 million, the highest level in Ferroglobe's history. In addition, our net debt further declined to $37 million, also a record level for the company. Last month, we took a significant step in our deleveraging efforts by redeeming $150 million of our senior secured notes reducing our note balance to less than $150 million, highlighting our strong cash position and reinforcing our confidence in our long-term cash generation potential. To put our overall debt reduction accomplishments in perspective, since the first quarter of 2022, we reduced our gross debt from $520 million to $250 million, in addition to reducing our interest expense. This transaction enhances our flexibility as we continue to evaluate capital allocation priorities. As discussed before, our goal is to prudently deploy cash to enhance long-term shareholder value. Beatriz will provide more color on this in her remarks. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy added silicon metal to its critical materials list. As the leading U.S. silicon metal producer, Ferroglobe is a significant beneficiary of this development. The…

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Thank you, Beatriz. Moving to the corporate update on Slide 14. As we have already discussed during the call, we made a significant step in strengthening our balance sheet when we redeem half of our outstanding senior secured notes in July. This transaction is an important step that better positions us for the forthcoming capital return decisions. The U.S. Department of Energy's designation of silicon metal as a critical material is a big win for Ferroglobe as the leading producer in the U.S. Combined with a strong push by the U.S. government to strengthen the domestic supply chain, it facilitates the onshoring trend which has already seen tremendous progress. We believe the incentives created by the Inflation Reduction and CHIPS Acts put us in a strong position to take advantage of these growth trends in the coming years.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Now we're going to take our first question. And the question comes from the line of Lucas Pipes from B. Riley.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley

Good job on the cost management during Q2. And my first question is in regards to Beatriz, your comments in your prepared remarks regarding the restrictions on capital returns being removed in the coming months. And so my question is, what is your desire to return capital to shareholders in this somewhat weaker macro industry environment? And then more broadly, both Beatriz and Marco, how you kind of think about capital returns versus pursuing growth, you think you have the ability to do both? Thank you very much for your perspective. Beatriz García-Cos: Thank you, Lucas, for the question. Well, as you exactly point out, you know that our senior notes does not allow us to either pay dividends or share buyback. So now at the moment, we are about to look at the options that we have to return capital to our shareholders, either in the form of share buybacks or in the form of dividends once we sort out the issue around the covenants on the senior notes. As we see it, we have a couple of options at the moment. In one side, we can get a consent, of course, from -- in our senior notes. The other option is to refinance or to redeem our senior notes. We feel quite strong about the cash generation that we have at the moment. So those are the options that we have at the moment. Once we get to that point that either we refinance or will redeem our senior notes or as I explained before, we got a consent, then we will be evaluating what is the best financial policy for the company, either in the form of share buybacks or payment of dividends. I think this could be something that we're going to be announcing shortly.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley

That is very helpful. And a follow-up question. Marco, you mentioned the critical material status for silicon metal. If you could maybe comment on the implications for your business of that U.S. designation. You also mentioned a licensing agreement in your prepared remarks. If you could maybe expand on some of the details of that agreement, what it could mean in terms of potential revenue, would appreciate a perspective on that. And then separately, kind of near-term question, just how you think about the cadence of EBITDA for the remainder of this year given you reiterated your full year guidance? I know there were a few questions in there.

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Thank you, Luke. Well, the news from U.S. are particularly good because silicon metal has been already classified critical and strategic by the European community. And now the U.S. has confirmed the fact that silicon metal is critical for the green transition. Now of course, being the largest producer of silicon metal in the U.S. and in Europe, we see great opportunities to benefit out of it, not only because we know that our business is cyclical, chemicals will come back, but there is growth related to solar and batteries, and I think that due to our global asset footprint, we are pretty well placed to compete successfully to exploit these opportunities. Regarding the license, yes, we -- as you know, we are working on batteries on 2 fronts. One front is basically supply chemical producers to produce products that partially replace graphite in the anode, and this is already going on. These specific licenses support our second development, which is towards the full replacement of the graphite with silicon in the anode. So having this additional know-how at our disposal is going to speed up our development. The third question was about?

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley

The cadence of EBITDA. So obviously...

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Cadence of EBITDA. Yes. I mean we do -- we are at $151 million at the end of the first half. And we have confirmed our guidance of $270 million to $300 million. The market is extremely challenging at the moment in terms of volumes, in terms of price trends. Our expectation is to see better conditions in the new year. But in the meantime, we expect to deliver good results in Q3 and lower results in Q4 due to the fact that we will have to slow down our production in France due to the energy conditions.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley

Got it. So really like the cadence of Q3 and Q4 is really driven first and foremost by your volumes.

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Yes. Correct.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to touch on costs. Costs were well managed in the recent quarters, but maybe what you are seeing incrementally there as we move into and through the back half of the year, kind of your expectations that we'll continue to see some deflation there that will act as some mitigating factor on the declining price environment.

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

You want to start, Beatriz, on cost? Beatriz García-Cos: Yes, I can start. Thank you, Marco. Martin, I think on the cost side, what we have been seeing in this quarter is, in general, a decrease in the raw material pricing. The only raw material with prices that are still holding is coal and the [indiscernible] as well. I think going forward, we continue to see this trend sustained in Q3 and in Q4. I think the big caveat for us is around the coal pricing. Of course, the main contributor to the cost is the energy benefits that we have to run our assets in France.

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Yes. Martin, we continue to benefit of our energy contracts, particularly in France in Q3. And as I mentioned, during Q3, we will have to be like we have done last year, some level of inventories to support the slowdown of production foreseen for the end of Q4 in France in silicon metal.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

And some of those items like the -- that were adjusted for EBITDA and/or were beneficial from a cost perspective that you called out while reviewing the size like the PPA and carbon credit. What's the expectation that will continue at like a similar rate? Or are those off the table for the remaining quarters? Beatriz García-Cos: Yes. Martin, in this quarter, we adjust to the EBITDA, the PPA that we signed in Spain. It was a swap for 2 months. So you saw the impact that we adjusted even if it is -- it's a positive impact in the quarter. And then I think as one of the highlights in our presentation, we said that we signed or execute the first PPA in Spain. And this would be the first one because our target is to cover more or less 50% of our energy consumption with this PPA. So you can expect more movements like that going forward.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Okay. Well, earlier in the call, you said that the new -- maybe I misheard it, but the new Spanish PPA wasn't effective until I thought January 2024. Is that right?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

You are right, Martin.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Okay. Got it. How about -- I guess this is along the same lines as the EBITDA cadence question, but maybe if you can touch on volumes specifically, thinking about third quarter, fourth quarter, I think you alluded to fourth quarter volumes probably sequentially lower. Is that -- maybe if you could review that...

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

The picture is the following for us. Silicon metal, we see a slightly better situation than in the previous quarters. We think that the supply chain is rather empty. And we see our orders coming now more regularly than before. This is valid for silicon metal. While for -- I think that to see the same situation for alloys, we have -- at least for commodities, we have to wait the end of the year. Of course, we have the advantage of pharmaceutical, specialty and foundry that has a rather stable volume trend, but definitely, the supply chain of manganese alloys and ferrosilicon standard still suffers out of oversupply.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Understood. And one last one here, and you did touch on this in the prepared remarks, but I think you said working capital, did you expect working capital relative to sales to increase quarter-over-quarter in 3Q? And then what was the -- I didn't catch the reason behind that, why that is expected to happen?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Apologies. I was not clear, my fault, Martin. Let me try to repeat it more clearly. We expect an increase of working capital in Q3 driven by the fact that we will slow down production in France, where we have the core of our silicon metal production in Europe at the end of Q4. So we will need to start building inventory of silicon metal. So this means producing more finishing goods, but also by the right volumes of key raw materials.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Okay. At a group level, any goalposts on how we should think of overall working capital as a percentage of sales in 3Q then?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

Well, the silicon metal will be higher than our target 21%, 22%. We expect to run at this level. Ferrosilicon and manganese will continue to be north of 25% of our sales.

Martin Englert

Analyst · Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners

All right. Excellent. I appreciate the time and congratulations on navigating the environment and on the cost front.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And the next question comes from the line of John Rolfe from Crescent Capital.

John Rolfe

Analyst · John Rolfe from Crescent Capital

Nice quarter. Two questions for you. One, on the cash flow statement, there was a $62 million outflow related to the other line item. I was hoping you could provide a little bit of additional color around that. And then as my follow-up, could you just maybe give a bit of additional detail in terms of what is the practical impact of having the Department of Energy add silicon metal to its critical material list? Beatriz García-Cos: John, let me answer the noncash items question. So there is mainly 2 items that you need to take into consideration. One is the PPA that we have in Spain. And the second element that you need to take into consideration is our energy agreement in France. So those are the 2 items that are playing a role on these noncash items.

John Rolfe

Analyst · John Rolfe from Crescent Capital

Got it. So what do you need to post collateral for those energy and power agreements? Or is it just a payable that you have to make at some point in the future? Beatriz García-Cos: It's a receivable. On the energy, it's receivable. And on the PPA, it's just what I explained before is the adjustment of the swap agreement that we have in Q2 2023.

Marco Levi

Analyst · John Rolfe from Crescent Capital

John, on your second question, the thing is that when we think about what's happening in solar and batteries market, the idea in U.S., but also in other countries is to establish the full supply chain. And what is important is that everybody understands what are the elements of this supply chain and the fact that silicon is recognized like a critical and strategic raw material implies that silicon and investments related to silicon are going to be considered by legislators, by politicians, by investors. So this is really the essence. And as these things are moving pretty fast in the Western world where we have main footprint in silicon metal, puts us in a good position to exploit some of the coming opportunities.

John Rolfe

Analyst · John Rolfe from Crescent Capital

So just as a quick follow-up, I mean, does that designation give you increased confidence for instance that the government will continue to keep antidumping tariffs on some of the countries that they currently have the tariffs on that sort of thing?

Marco Levi

Analyst · John Rolfe from Crescent Capital

Yes, this is part -- I mean, this is related to onshoring and defending local production, yes. I mean there is -- this is happening also in Europe. Unfortunately, my opinion, Europe is less efficient than U.S., not only in protecting from dumping, but also in terms of walking the talk. So I think I'm very optimistic about the situation in U.S. at the moment.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Morten Normann from Carnegie.

Morten Normann

Analyst · Morten Normann from Carnegie

I have two questions. One is a fairly easy one. What is the sales mix between the U.S. and the Europe in metal and silicon-based alloys? And the second question is regarding the CO2 compensation, how do you book that? You mentioned higher CO2 compensation in the second quarter. And what was the incremental change in the CO2 compensation between first quarter and the second quarter? And is the CO2 compensation in the second quarter also representative for what you will book in Q3 and Q4?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Morten Normann from Carnegie

Okay. As far as I know, usually, we don't give data about the mix by geography. But let me try to help you a little bit. In Europe, we sell the entire mix. So we sell silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, foundry and manganese alloys. In the Americas, we don't sell manganese alloys, while we are present with silicon metal, ferrosilicon and foundry products. Outside of these geographies, we have quite important footprint in South Africa that supplies basically for ferrosilicon Europe, while for silicon metal, the asset in Polokwane, South Africa supply is a little bit everywhere in the world. We have a plant which produces electrodes in China. It's the only plant that we have that produces electrodes and now this production basically go to the U.S. and to Europe. We have a plant in Argentina that supplies calcium-silicon and foundry products to supply Europe. This is -- broadly, this is our mix. Beatriz García-Cos: And Martin, with regarding the CO2 to your question. So to comment, comment number one is that the CO2 is -- I'm sure that you know that, but okay, is an allowance that we receive, right, based on the production of the previous years. And then we book it in our P&L base for the production of the quarter. And as you remember, in Q1, we didn't produce in France, right? And this quarter, we have been resuming the operations in France, so we have been producing. So the amount of CO2 that we book in our P&L is higher than in Q1. So the way to look at CO2 is depending if our plants are operating, you will see a different amount of CO2, if this answers your question.

Operator

Operator

And the question comes from the line of Greg Bennett, just the stockholder.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Thank you for the great results. Silicon metal on the United States, you said you're the largest. At what capacity are you now running? Is there excess capacity? Or do you have the opportunity to expand that capacity?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Yes. We have 2 plants in joint venture when you talk about North America with the Dow Chemical company, one in Bécancour, Canada, and one in Alloy West Virginia. These plants produce only silicon metal. We have another plant in Selma, Alabama, which is owned by us, which produces only silicon metal. And then we have a plant in Ohio -- Beverly, Ohio, which produces ferrosilicon, foundry and silicon metal. So produces all the mix to supply the United States. These plants are back-integrated with mines in Canada and Alabama for coal and we have a mine -- coal mine in Kentucky. So this is the footprint. Now the -- we believe that the -- it -- when you keep your plants in a good state, in a good status with the right maintenance CapEx, we have the possibilities, one, to improve the yield of the furnaces with different technologies. These are incremental capacity expansions. Then we have the opportunity to increase our capacity greenfield at the most competitive plants. So the plants, among the ones that I have mentioned, where for us it is pretty easy and pretty fast to put a new furnace and to increase the output of silicon metal. So the footprint and the back-integration are basically our strong points.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Is your energy supply natural gas? Or is it -- what is the energy supply? Because you focus on energy costs quite a bit, at least in Europe.

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Yes, we are talking about electricity.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Your cost is electricity, not natural gas. Is that correct?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

We're looking at electricity, yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Okay. And these are competitive areas like West Virginia for that?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Well, talking about the -- we have different contracts for the different assets. That's true.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

How do you expect the U.S. -- is there going to be grants given to companies like yours or financing -- favorable financing for you to increase capacity? How do you envision that's going to -- what's going to happen besides tariffs?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Yes. We are looking into that. And we are talking to different partners. I think that the key thing is to form alliances with other companies in the supply chain to leverage at best the incentives that the government can potentially guarantee.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

And your joint ventures with Dow Chemical, if you want to expand, is that an agreement between the 2 of you? Or how do you see your partner contributing in this?

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Well, the joint venture with Dow Chemical is related to the 2 sides of Bécancour and Alloy. And the -- whenever we consider an expansion either in Bécancour or Alloy, we need to sit down with the Dow Chemical company that uses capacity for their own production of chemicals.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Okay. For whatever it's worth, I would like you to continue to delever considering the uncertainty of -- from an economic point of view going forward for whatever that's worth.

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

I hear you loud. I totally agree with you. Deleveraging -- further deleveraging and start distributing dividends to our shareholders is our priority.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Let me ask you one other shareholder question. There's virtually very little ownership or if you look at your shareholder base, you have some hedge funds, that type of thing. But as far as being part of any kind of environmental, social, governance or solar, there's -- I don't think there's any coverage at all and you've hired a new shareholder relations person. Do you anticipate coming to New York or Boston or places to visit with institutional investors to try to get the Vanguards and Fidelities of the world to look at your company that you're kind of an...

Marco Levi

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Let me start answering your question. First of all, we have been doing that a lot between December, February and March this year. And we've been several times to the U.S., meeting current and potential investors. Today, we are covered by B. Riley and Seaport. There are other parties who are showing up, interested in covering us. The -- you referred to the -- you made a reference and I'm pleased about that to our investor relationship. Yes, we have decided to focus much more on the -- on our shareholders. And for this reason, we have hired somebody who has an enormous experience in IR, and we are pleased to have him around in -- for this exercise. So yes, Alex Rotonen is in the call at the moment.

Alex Rotonen

Analyst · Greg Bennett, just the stockholder

Yes. Thank you. Yes. So that is clearly one of my missions is to do more outreach, expand coverage. And I'm quite familiar with the U.S. market since I've spent most of my life there. So I'll certainly be visiting U.S. quite a bit with the management team. But I've been here for about 6 weeks now. So I haven't had a chance yet, but we'll be traveling.

Operator

Operator

This concludes question-and-answer session for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Marco Levi for any closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Analyst · B. Riley

Thank you. That concludes our second quarter 2023 earnings call. Thank you again for your participation. We look forward to hearing from you on the next call. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.