Earnings Labs

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 31, 2007

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Wanda and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear Third Quarter 2007 Earnings Release Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Greg Dooley, Investor Relations. Thank you. Mr. Dooley, you may begin your conference.

Greg Dooley - Investor Relations

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Thank you, Wanda. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us for Goodyear's third quarter 2007 results review and strategy update. Joining me on the call are Bob Keegan, Chairman and CEO; Mark Schmitz, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Darren Wells, Senior Vice President of Finance and Strategy. The webcast of this morning's discussion and the supporting slide presentation are available now on our website investor.goodyear.com. We filed our Form 10-Q this morning. This morning's discussion will be available for replay after 3 PM Eastern Time today by dialing 706-634-4556 or on our website at www.investor.goodyear.com. Before we get started, I need to remind everyone that our discussion this morning may contain certain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in the news release we issued this morning. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Thanks again for joining us today. Now, I will turn the discussion over to Bob Keegan.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Well, thank you, Greg and good morning, everyone. Before we report specifics, what I see is an outstanding third quarter. I’ll make a few opening comments to touch on key topics of interest for Goodyear. First, our product, brand, customer, and geographic mix continues to be richer each quarter. In the third quarter, this is driven significant margin expansion despite weak market conditions. How did we achieve this outcome? By specifically targeting attractive i.e. high margin market segments and market opportunities. Future planned investments will continue to be directed toward available high return opportunities. Second, joining me on the call today for the first time is Mark Schmitz, our new Chief Financial Officer. Now some of you have already met or talked with Mark since he joined Goodyear in August and I am pleased to have Mark on Board for two important reasons. Mark’s addition strengthens our leadership team with an experience CFO who has a successful track record, who is intimately familiar with big brands and building those brands and who has considerable international business experiences. In addition, mark’s presence allows Rich Kramer who many of you know, our previous CFO, to focus his considerable business expertise solely on the operations of our pivotal North American tire business. Third, I’ve mentioned many times to you that innovation is now at the center of everything we do at Goodyear. While our innovative new products are the most obvious example of this, we seek to apply the same creativity to all parts of our business. This is true whether we are developing initiatives to target attractive new markets globally, developing strategies to optimize our price and mix gains, or creating innovative ways to address our legacy healthcare obligations for our Steelworker retirees in North America through a VEBA Trust. I’m particularly…

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes. Thank you, Bob. I would like to open my comments by saying I am fortunate to be joining Goodyear in an exciting time, and I look forward to working with Bob in his leadership team as we pursue growth opportunities and the cost improvements and the others. As Bob mentioned, we are pleased with our third quarter results and my comments will be focused on the primary drivers of our financial results, including cost savings progress and a discussion of the trends that we are experiencing in each region. Turning first to the income statement. Revenue grew by more than 3%, driven by continuation of price and mix improvements and favorable foreign currency translation. These positively impacts were partially offset by 7% decline in unit volume as a result of the decision to exit certain segments of the private label business in North America, as well as the continuation of weak conditions in several key markets and the short-term supply challenges as Bob mentioned. Gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage point year-over-year. This margin expansion was achieved through price and mix improvements in excess of raw material cost increases, growth in our high margin emerging markets operations and cost savings actions. These latter included the restructuring of solid retiree benefits, manufacturing footprint actions, and continuous improvement initiatives. While the third quarter is typically strong quarter for us in terms of gross margin as we benefit from increased sales of premium with tires in Europe. It should also be noted our ongoing investment program will continue to provide additional opportunity for mix driven margin improvement as well as cost efficiency. Segment operating income amounted the $382 million or 7.5% of sales compared to $282 million or 5.7% of sales last year, an increase of 35%. Each of our tire business…

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Well, thanks, Mark. If you had just referenced your outlooks slide, we have updated our forecast for full year 2007, North American and European Union Industry growth rates and I will go through this rather quickly because the numbers are incorporated on the slide. In North America, for the full year our forecast for the consumer replacement market is up approximately 2%, within the range of our previous forecast at the end of… that we gave you at the end of Q2 of 1% to 2%. Remember that this follows a very weak 2006 market environment. We have revised downward our consumer OE market to approximately a 4% decline versus 3% at the end of Q2 and this reflects ongoing production cuts that are OE customers in Detroit. The commercial OE market in North America is unchanged for the full year, still down about 30% and as you recall that’s a result of new truck emissions legislation. We have revised the commercial replacement market to be down approximately 5% for the year. Again, our previous guidance was 4% as demand for freight continues to be weaker than expected, and I am sure you are seeing evidence of that throughout the industry. In the European Union for the full year, we have revised upward our forecast for the consumer OE market. We now expect the consumer OE market to be up 1% to 2% versus flat, up slightly in the Q2. Our forecast for the other three markets segments is unchanged. So, consumer replacement is expected to decline 1% to 2%, the commercial replacement market is expected to be up 2% to 3%, and the commercial OE market is expected to be up approximately 20% reflecting continued strength in European OE truck markets. Out outlook for raw materials products remain unchanged…

Greg Dooley - Investor Relations

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Wanda, we’ll take the first question. Question and Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Himanshu Patel with JP Morgan.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Hi, good morning guys.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Good morning, Himanshu.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Can I get into the North American profit walk a little bit, I know you did explicitly provided in the slides, but just looking at some of the details out of the Q, volumes, it looks like the impact… negative impact on operating income was about $4 million, that seems pretty low, given the magnitude of the volume decline, I wonder if you could give a little bit of color on that?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. Let me maybe kick off by talking about the volume decline there. The private label… the exit of segments of the private label business for us in the third quarter reflected about 1.6 million units. And so, from a year-on-date standpoint, if we include the first half of the year is about 5.6 million units, okay. So, that’s a big piece of that volume change. The other piece in North America is, of course, the… that consumer OE has been relatively weak and that is contributed approximately half 0.5 million units in the third quarter and for the year-to-date about 2 million units. And again, part of that is weakness in the market and part of that is our selectivity, Himanshu, you are well aware with certain shipments from the OEs. We also have year-to-date just a key point here, remember we build still year-to-date of a strike impact and we estimate that and about 1.2 billion units through three quarters. So, that’s kind of the… if you will, the build up to what’s happening from a volume standpoint.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

I mean I get that, but I mean I am just curious it looks like the volume hit on revenues was about $184 million, but on operating income it was only 4 million. I mean where these… is this just another way of saying that the volume lost in the quarter was very low margin business for the most part?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes. Generally speaking, if you look at overall strategy gets to replace all the low margin business with higher margin business and certainly from our standpoint, you're seeing that result. Frankly, if we did have supply constraints here are that are near-term supply constraints, that could have even been a bigger swing in the positive direction and you see it in the revenue per tire.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. Moving on, that same segment in North America, the operating income hit from raw materials seemed relatively modest at about negative $8 million and I think it was about $25 million in Q2. I’m just curious, I mean, that obviously relative to what you saw on price mix in North America, that’s a substantially favorable spread. How long can that continue, I mean I’m not suggesting that you give guidance on the price mix front? But was there something abnormal about how raw materials cost flow through the P&L this quarter that that sort of minimized the impact of that in the North American results this quarter?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

The quick answer there, Himanshu, would be, no. There was nothing abnormal. I would mention to you though, if you go back to last year. We see significant volatility quarter-to-quarter in raw materials and as you probably recall if you look at the market data we had whether it was natural rubber or oil a bit of respite in the fourth quarter of ’06. Then snapping back up the high levels in the first quarter of 2007. And so that’s affected us consider about a quarter later in terms of the impact on our, on cogs and on our P&L. So you're always going to have those kinds of movements quarter-to-quarter but right now I would say that, yes, we're making up for some of the increases that have flowed in terms of raw materials but we're also doing an outstanding job on price mix of moving ourselves to as I said many times, not only a better mix for product. A better mix for product or/and our customer base and if we extent beyond North America geography as well.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. Can I move to the balance sheet? You ended the quarter at $2.9 billion of cash. You've got the VEBA payment to make at year-end. What is sort of a level of cash balance that you guys are comfortable running the business with after these corporate finance transactions are out of the way. Should we think about sort of the $1.5 billion to $2 billion range going forward, or is there some room to even take that lower?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

So, we may all make the contribution to this because that’s a very broad based question. But, Mark, why don’t you tick us off?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes. Himanshu, I think for the near-term and, Darren, I’m sure will add to this. But I think for the near-term, we kind of look upon cash balance of $1 billion dollars being kind of the minimum level we need to run the business. Now, having said that, we do feel very comfortable with the cash balances we're caring right now and given that a big piece of it is earmarked towards couple of things in the near-term one being the funding of the VEBA and the other being the pay down of the $650 million of senior notes that we have indicated we would be redeeming earlier next year. And I think there is another $100 million note that matures there too. So, we are pretty comfortable going into the next year.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. And then on that same note, you’ve announced a lot of debt pay down, but it just seems to me given the cash balance you have got right now even after taking into account the announced debt payment plans and the VEBA now it feels like you could still take out the $495 million senior floating rate note I think this is the LIBOR plus 275. Is there… any thoughts on sort of that piece of data this stage or do you just want to kind of see how the year shakes up and how industry conditions are next year before announcing something on that.

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

I think Darren, can’t wait to make the comment.

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes, Himanshu, I think it is something that we want to be somewhat cautious about. Here is the way to think about where we are today and where we are going to be after these pay downs. If I take the $2.9 billion cash balance, about a quarter of that is around $800 million is overseas, so that leaves about $2.1 billion that’s domestic, and Mark just walked you through what amounts to effectively $1.7 billion reserved on uses, and that are all domestic uses. So, I think that your pro forma for those you find the domestic cash balance and given September is our peek working capital here in terms of seasonality, you’ll still find the domestic balance is at a level that I don't view as excessive.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. Great. And then last question the interest expense guidance on slide four of the appendix, I think its calling for 60 million lower year-on-year that seemed relatively light just based on what you have announced year-to-date. What are the assumptions behind that? Are you assuming some interests costs moving up in terms of interest rates? Or is there… maybe I’m just doing the math incorrectly, but just seems like after you do the March pay down as well, that number should be a lot lower that $60 million below the ’07 level.

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes Himanshu, this is Darren. The $60 million you see on the page is essentially a reflection of three quarters worth of impact of the two pieces of debt we plan to pay down in March. The 650 and the 100, those two combined will have interest expense a little over $80 million annually. So, it’s really nothing more that three quarters of that.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

I got it. Okay. And then last question… sorry one more. The plans on capacity expansion I mean you guys have talked about this for a few months now. Any more color you can give us… are you looking to greenfield facilities or is there a chance to buy some existing facilities any sort of rather granularity on weather you are leaning towards two facilities or one facility.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Himanshu, we’ll simply say, I think if you look at our fourth coming investments you should look at them in a couple of categories. And by the way, they will cover both passenger tires and commercial truck tires so you should be thinking about it that way, I also mentioned that some of that investment will go into strictly modernization of existing facilities and creating the ability to manufacture the premium high margin products that we want to be able to market and then we’ve said that we are looking certainly at potential new sites in Asia and in Eastern Europe and we are not prepared to today to give further direction there but would be prepared as we go forward to provide you with some more specificity obviously than that. But I think it’s important that you think truck and passenger tires and it’s also important that you be thinking of modernization of existing facilities as I mentioned in my comments with regard to Fayetteville North Carolina and Gaston, Alabama just two examples in North America, but there are many other examples overseas. And in addition to the potential for new sites in Asia and Eastern Europe and these are all directed at the premium market segments with high margins and I can guarantee, Himanshu, we look at this in terms of capital allocation with everything that we have learnt over these past five years or so, we’ll be very careful these will be high return projects each and everyone of them.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan

Analyst · JP Morgan

Okay. Thank you.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Thank you

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon everybody,

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Hey, good morning Rod.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

A couple of things. On the cash flow this… $950 million use in working capital this year, how should we think about working capital going into 2008 you are expanding on the high-end, the point back on the private label. Net-net, is that… is that going to be a plus or minus.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

I think the first thing to… the kind of position yourself on… the working capital use this year has been… we have been in strike recovery mode we were first building inventories and then we’re been building receivables. And in addition to that you see the high point of the year, Rod, at quarter 3 in our European business in particular were we are… we got the winter selling season. So, receivables at this point are… and very much at a high point in Europe. Now, most of that growth has probably been in receivables this year. And looking forward, your question said… and asking how should we see this going forward? This is a really… it’s an area of intense emphasize for us right now, and we think we got opportunities in working capital. And do recall that we are seeing some of the progress already even though the use of the absorption of working capital has been fairly high this year, the balance is even with last year and day supply is actually down. So, I hope that helps some.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. So, you are saying that there is an opportunity there. I mean, what does that mean for 2008?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Well, we rather give… we will give specific guidance on ’08, but it’s certainly our goal to continue to take days out in terms of working capital. And as I mentioned in my comments, we see that as kind of an imperative here for the Company to be able to make the other kinds of investments we would like to make outside if you will the area of working capital and do manufacturing facilities or to continue to invest in marketing, initiative else that, in fact, it driven the kinds of virtual mix that you see us now producing.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. And on the capital spending, do you have a target IRR that you could share on these projects?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

We don’t share a specific target. I will simply say Rod, you can assume well above our caps… our cost of capital.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. And can you go into just what exactly happens from here on this VEBA. You mentioned this 90 day waiting period. Is that from yesterday so that we count like 90 days from yesterday and that’s when it gets simple method?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

No we will kind of walk you through the sequence of events here with right out to say up front that we thought we had this progress further than we have at this point, but I can guarantee you that that’s not because the Steelworkers of Goodyear have tried to slow it down. We are in a legal process which is fairly complex and there if you can’t go through that here we can give you the highlights of that process.

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Yes, Rod. As Bob mentioned we got the settlement agreement filed which was sort of the key step two in the process and now what we need to wait for is for the Federal judge to give preliminary approval to the settlement and once he has done that which should happen in the very near-term. Once he has done that then the 90 day notice period to the class members begins. At the end of that 90 day class, that 90 day notice period there would be a fairness hearing and following the fairness hearing here within a short order there would be judgment rendered sort of giving final approval to the center. So, that is the way…

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Just a comment there is at the end of that still a 30 days appeal. If there is anybody that wants to appeal, if there are no appeals, the settlement accounting would take place as we proceed.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. The next milestone then is federal judge approval, is that a couple of weeks?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

And that’s and we say that sort of that’s in process for the relatively short-term now.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

That’s why yesterday’s move, with the filing yesterday was so critical for us, that was a critical stage to get over.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. So, like a week or two or something like this we should see another milestone occur?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

While as we simply say we are in terms of what we know for there a matter of weeks rather than months.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. The productivity… the Steelworkers productivity targets that you’ve set out can you just talk, you mentioned that you’re hiring 13 now on our people, what’s the target for 2008 productivity? Is that change, and is there any execution risk that you see related to that?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Yes. Well, actually, Rod, I say that we are probably we are half or even above target in terms of pays and which were bringing on $13 for our workers. However, most of the savings are still in front of us. So you can see only the $20 million type of numbers so far in our results. So that big amount of structural saving is still on the front of us. We talked about transitional difficulties, transitional inefficiencies that we faced in the third quarter and a lot of that does have to do with a learning curve and the training associated with the $13 on our workforce. So, it’s little hard to be predictive in terms of specific timing and when the savings come in, but if you can clearly see we are going to realize the savings.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. You had previously put out a little bit of a like a calendar on how these things roll in, is there any reasonable EBITDA would change meaningfully at this point?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Rod, what I say relative to what we put out none.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. And lastly …

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

But I will say, I will say it’s important for you to know, of course, we are learning, the Steelworkers are learning as we go through this as we go through this process, but there is nothing we see today that will cause us to change in our goals or the rough timing in which those goals would be executed.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. My last one is just here the Q shows pension expense down $65 million, OPEC $67 million. I know you guys book these expenses in the inventory and is a little bit complicated than what we see these tables. So, could you just give us a sense of what we have seen already is that your conversion cost and how does that ramp from here?

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Yes, Rod, I think what you’ve seen in the third quarter is a full run rate savings for the actions that we have taken, like we have talked about in the second quarter that we did not see a full quarters work. So, what you saw in the third quarter is more or less what we will… would expect again from two key things, one the higher funding pension level at the beginning of this year and number two, the actions we took to restructure salary retirement benefits. So, I think that in the third quarter, we had our run rate for those structural savings.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Okay. Because I am looking at the numbers, it looks like maybe $120 million or so, is that with the Four Point savings plan at $120 million is related to?

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

No. I will just say, certainly part of the $120 million in the third quarter does relate to pension and OPEC savings that relates to the salaried retirement benefits restructuring, but I think that if you break it apart, you will find part of that is… part of the salary benefits restructuring comes through SAG part of… it comes through conversion. But I think for the quarter, we will be talking about savings that are if we take all pension OPEC together more in the range of $15 million comes through the savings plan.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you.

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Yes.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank

Thanks Rod.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kurt [inaudible] with CRT Capital.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

Good morning guys.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Hi, good morning.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

You’ve mentioned the capacity constraints number of times, and I was curious is there any way to quantify how much of your revenue is constraint?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

Well, I would start the answer by saying, yes, it is possible, plus those estimates are always somewhat proved, because you are looking at demand that you haven’t actually realized and try to estimate how much it is, and back orders and things like that totally accurately reflect that. So, we are very hesitant to put out a number, but I would comment that, okay, what we are doing about that? One, we are moving towards getting higher productivity out of the assets that we currently have. That’s a very short-term type of potential resolution. Number two, remember we do have third party sourcing in parts of the world, particularly at the low-end of our product line and we will continue to be aggressive in terms of those actions, and of course, the third potential resolution is the investments that we have talked about what we are pushing all three of those. But it’s… these are reasonably significant constraints and I would tell you that in large part is because a year ago, two years ago we underestimated how much we could grow our demand for key Goodyear and Dunlop products, frankly and we have underestimated a bit, now we are playing catch up, that’s it. I guess if you could have a problem, it’s a relatively good problem to have but I would say it’s material. So, once we make the new investments, once we do a better job at third part sourcing, once we do a better job in getting more productivity out of current assets, this will be a powerful thing for us not only for our top line but what you are interested in obviously is for better margins.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. Shifting gears to imports, we have had a major move in the dollar here and I am… I would think that it would be positive for the domestic term manufacturers, the fact that the dollar is weakening. And I am just curious if… if you see at that way now that you are also an importer?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

And also, is it causing a shift in the tires coming from outside the country to higher price points?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Well, I would say several things have happened, remember we had a lot happen this year. You have got the weak dollar which obviously, if I can buy the weak dollar with our latest agreement with the steel workers with the potential of new investments in our North American plants. That means we are in a very different competitive situation this year than we were a year ago or two years ago. As we brought on $13 dollar an hour labor as we reduced benefit costs, obviously we are more competitive in North American plants. The other thing that has happened here in addition to the dollar is with the price of oil where it is today. Obviously freight and transportation cost across large areas, large geographic areas has gone up significantly. So… and you have had in China, the change in there, in their VAT which is in effect taken the value added tax up by 8%. And so we are seeing that in terms of let’s say, tires that we source from China but that is an industry wide phenomena, so there has been a change in the balance but those of us who are used to operating in global businesses, the foreign exchange moves in both directions here over time so we are not particularly comfortable that that’s taken place and saying that we are not going to change our investment decisions but its clearly affected the geographic competitiveness if you will. We’ve said to you before that in Latin America, Eastern Europe you know we can match, China and Asia costs while North America has become much more competitive over time on the other hand western Europe is not. Okay. Because the euro obviously is much stronger relative to the dollar so we continue to look at those things on a regular basis and we try to make our investment decisions based not on what’s happening today but what do the fundamentals tell us will be happening out three, five ten years into the future.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

Right, now that you have a second tier wage. Do you think Goodyear is a good candidate for an attrition program?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · JP Morgan

Yes, Kurt, I think the, what we have seen so far is that we have had more than adequate attrition to keep us well ahead of our original targets on $13 an hour labor so I think if as we were to think about that certainly it would require us in our unionized facilities we would have to work with the United Steelworkers on that but I think as we see it today we’ve actually see good attrition, and have continue to see good attrition and therefore very good opportunity to leverage the $13 an hour labor Robert J. Keegan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President And frankly relatively good from our stand point attrition rates and other parts of the world as well.

Unidentified Analyst - CRT Capital

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · JP Morgan

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch.

John Murphy - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Hi guys, thanks for squeezing me in here.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Hi John.

John Murphy - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

I’ll keep it brief, I got three questions, first one of your major competitors mentioned there were some delays in implementing price increases, I was just wondering what you are seeing on that front first, second question is on the debt revise. Just wondering, you know if you guys are really targeting a net reduction in your aggregate debt or were you just really trying to more focus on your putting into regions or euro denominated debt where you actually get there tax shield and then third also another tax question, is there any tax implications form the engineered product sale.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Okay, let me try and take you first one, on pricing what we see is, we continued to see I’d say reasonably disciplined pricing here in the U.S. certainly in the truck area that’s true and then we have to say that that’s pretty much true in passenger as well, and again what’s happening in raw materials over a significant period of time those are obviously I think changes. We continue to see Europe as a bit challenged and we have said that for some time in the passenger area not in truck and Asia and Latin America, well, maybe Latin America is a little different. Latin America, you have had a lot of revaluation going with the weak dollar and so whether it’s foreign exchange positive or price increase we can argue how we strategize and plan around that but I don’t see any major change in the pricing environment from what we said at the end of Q2 or frankly at the year end fall. Okay, so that’s point number one.

John Murphy - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Market in terms of debt?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Yes. The answer to your second question on debt really is yes to both. We are intensifying team operating achieving that 2.5 times multiple of debt to EBITDA. We don’t need to take that down further to achieve that goal and we feel like when we can foresee being able to do that given the helpful levels in the track that we are on. But it’s also true as we move ahead here we are looking for opportunities to reposition the debt so that next what we can take better advantage of our tax positions in different places in the world which usually means moving debt off the U.S. and into other tax paying jurisdictions. And I guess, the last question had to do with, a really I make it count to our valuation levels because I think… which… I just think that we do continue to maintain a full valuation allowance on tax assets in the U.S. and we will continue to do so for some time.

John Murphy - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

And EPD?

W. Mark Schmitz - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Yes. The question on EPD I guess is… we don’t see… we don’t see the EPD transactions having a terminal effect on our tax rate guidance at this time.

John Murphy - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Greg Dooley - Investor Relations

Analyst · John Murphy, with Merrill Lynch

And Wanda, I think we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Monica Calif with Morgan Stanley.

Monica Calif - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Good afternoon.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Hi, Monica.

Monica Calif - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

I am wondering if you could talk a little bit about the U.S. going through recession, how you would see a downside? And particularly, obviously you have been benefiting a lot from decisions to except private label and that’s benefited you very nicely in the mix. Could you talk a little bit about what you think consumers might do in a downside scenario?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Okay. Darren, do you want to kick this is off.

Darren R. Wells - Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Sure. Well, I think Monica the first point that I would make on, yes, in terms of the recession is that the segments of the business that are most susceptible to recession, which I would guess you would argue is consumer OE, the commercial truck business in the U.S. as and the low end of the consumer business… consumer replacement business in the U.S.. I think we would look at those and say they already have a lot of recessionary character to them. I’ve already seen very, very weak volumes there. Now, so that’s point number one. Point number two is, those are the business where we've been reducing our exposure, which is good for us. The high end consumer replacement business has not reacted in the same way and does not tend to be sensitive to economic conditions so that the real question that we face is given a couple of very weak years already and in the industry is there more down side in a recession scenario and though I think that you could look at this and say there’s already tire purchases being delayed. Question’s going to be can they be delayed even further where normally after a couple of weak years like this we would see the volumes start to bounce back as that pent up demand starts to come into the market place.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

And we have seen… just to maybe be even more specific. We've seen some reduction in miles driven per vehicle in North America already on the passenger side and of course you're seeing what we could call is almost recessionary purchasing activity in commercial truck replacement business. So, I guess that’s how we'd respond, Monica, to that, because it does… and it doesn’t stop us from achieving our goals and we're still more attracted to achieving our goals.

Monica Calif - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

So, would you say though… just if you were to give it some broad parameters I agree on the commercial side definitely showing recessionary trends already, would you say on the consumer replacement in the U.S. maybe down only a little bit a couple of percent or pretty flat? If have it kind of bracketed

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Yes. Monica, it depends on, if you could bracket what the recession means, in terms of specifics, I mean is it a serious recession? By the way our outlook is not recessionary. I mean that’s not how we're looking at the economy playing out over the next couple of years. But we could be wrong in that respect. But we would say this would have rather modest impact and if we look at the history. Let the history be our guide a little bit. Certainly, typically during times of economic weakness the industry has potentially declined for a year or two and then it’s bounced back, as people still drive cars and people will still move freight. And the replacement industry has not shown a great deal of cyclicality. We've seen more in the commercial truck area. So, I think those two things would guide us and a recession would certainly play out differently as we're seeing today. The truck business today is weaker than the passenger business. But we're not going to… we won’t attempt a forecast here.

Monica Calif - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

And then last question. Is there much different in profitability on the commercial side between North America and Europe?

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Yes, it depends on the stage of the cycle, again, but I would say they’re relatively the same is certainly in the replacement business and pretty close as well in the OE business. There’s not a significant difference there.

Monica Calif - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Robert J. Keegan - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Monica, Thank you.

Greg Dooley - Investor Relations

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Wanda, that was the last question. I’m going to hand it back over to Bob for some closing remarks. Robert J. Keegan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President I’d simply say, we appreciate everybody showing an interest in our company and being with us here today we appreciate that. We're obviously pleased with the Q3 results and I feel comfortable with our future direction and we look forward to talking with you all again at least at the year-end call and maybe in the interim. So, thanks for being with us.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s Goodyear third quarter 2007 earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.