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The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 28, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company's Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the floor to Greg Fritz, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Mr. Fritz, please go ahead.

Gregory A. Fritz

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Goodyear's third quarter conference call. Joining me today are Rich Kramer, Chairman and CEO; and Darren Wells, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we get started, there are few items I would like to cover. To begin, the webcast of this morning's discussion and the supporting slide presentation can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com. Additionally, a replay of this call will be accessible later today. Replay instructions were included in our earnings release issued earlier this morning. If I could now direct your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on Slide 2. Our discussion this morning may contain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties, which can cause our actual results to differ materially, are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in the earnings release. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Turning now to the agenda. On today's call, Rich will provide a business overview, including third quarter highlights and accomplishments. After Rich's remarks, Darren will discuss the financial results and outlook before opening the call to your questions. With that, I will now turn the call over to Rich.

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, we were very pleased that our positive results were achieved through continued execution of our strategic objectives. We saw that even in an uncertain economy, the tire industry MegaTrends we introduced in March are still valid and our plans to return long-term targets remain on track. I will discuss those topics with you today and conclude with a brief outlook on the work we have yet to do and the opportunities we see ahead. Goodyear's positive momentum from the first half of 2011 continued over the past 3 months as we delivered the highest quarterly sales and earnings in our history. All 4 of our strategic business units set all-time quarterly sales records, leading to a total of $6.1 billion, the highest sales figures for any quarter in Goodyear's history. I'm very pleased with our performance in the quarter as we demonstrated execution of capability and confirm that our strategies around renovation, brands and targeted market segments are in fact the right ones. To summarize some highlights of the quarter, revenue per tire was up 18% versus the prior year. Price/mix of nearly $740 million offset by $554 million in higher raw material costs in the quarter. This marks the second quarter in a row where we more than offset raw material cost increases of nearly 30%. Price/mix improvements were driven by a continued stream of consumer-focused innovative branded products, particularly evident in our award-winning winter products in Europe. And we continue to improve our mix by producing more of the high value-added tires that our consumers are demanding from our existing factories. The result was record segment operating income of $463 million. SOI for North American Tire was $78 million in the quarter and is now to $255 million…

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. As you heard from Rich, we generated record levels of segment operating income during the third quarter despite flat unit volume and managing through the largest quarterly increase in raw material cost in our history. The record level of earnings was driven by our Europe, Middle East and Africa business along with continued high levels of performance in North America and Asia-Pacific. During the quarter, we generated price/mix improvements of $739 million compared to the prior year. There are 2 areas I'd like to highlight related to our price/mix performance during the quarter. First, as we've gone throughout 2011, we realized the benefit of our price increases. Realizing this benefit reflects the strength of our brands and product offerings. Second, our targeted market segment strategy continued to drive improved mix during the quarter. This strategy in Europe is benefited from a very strong winter tire market, but our focus on the winter segments has resulted in us having the best product lineup in the industry at just the right time. Turning to the income statement on Slide 6. Our third quarter revenue increased 22%. The revenue increase was largely due to improved price/mix, which resulted in an 18% improvement in our revenue per tire on a year-over-year basis. Favorable non-tire related revenue and foreign currency added $220 million and $175 million, respectively. From a unit volume perspective, we continued to see growth in the industry demand across most geographies, but generally at the lower end of our prior outlook. Our volumes were flat, reflecting reduced volume in low-value tires with continued growth in targeted market segments. We generated gross margin of 18% in the quarter representing a full point of margin improvement from the prior year. We improved gross margin despite significant year-over-year increases in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

It's actually Pat Nolan in for Rod. Can we start with Europe, the 11% operating margin you achieved there during the quarter. I know it was extremely strong winter mix, but can you just give us an idea? I mean has anything changed in that business where -- I mean, with the overall margin outlook as you go forward? I mean, is this just kind of an aberration the way you're looking at it right now?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

No. I think, if we start sort of it from a macro perspective. I think if you go back to what we said strategically, our goal was to drive our European business back to at least the historical earnings level that we had and then some, and fundamentally, that was grounded and the targeted market segments that we see is very opportunistic for us in the region, our innovative products and particularly in the winter area where we have award-winning, industry-leading products, particularly identified by the magazine tests over there. So what you see happening, I would say, is not at all aberrational. It's a -- an excellent market to sell tires, it has excellent market segments within the market in the aggregate, and we have designed and executed our strategy to take advantage of those. So I think in a macro sense, I wouldn't at all have you think about it as an aberrational business model for us in Europe. Now, I think though, if we look at our Q3 performance, you've rightly point out that what's driven it is a strong winter tire market. And again, we executed very well in terms of having the right product at the right place at the right time. So I would say we certainly took advantage of a good situation, and I'm very, very pleased with the way the team there executed. So that strategy is going to continue. We've had success in those targeted market segments in Q3, and we intend to do that in Q4 as well. That's going to be again both now more in summer and winter tires, and we'll see some softness in the winter tire markets impacting Q4 and potentially out even into Q1 as we see a higher weighting towards summer and away from winter. In Q4, in particular, we'll see a product mix that's again going to shift more towards summer and the volumes will just be lower in Q4 historically, as I have based on seasonality. So we'll see a little reduced volume and a little bit of mixed shift from winter to summer. And I think that's really not again an aberration, that's the typical trend that we ultimately see. So again, I would tell you we're very, very pleased with what we see in Europe, and I would say we're on strategy and frankly, our earnings getting back to historical levels is something that we targeted. And given the strong winter, we're probably even a bit ahead of what we thought we'd be.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

But more than 50% of your volume being winter tires in the quarter, what's that typically in the third quarter?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

There's no question, this is a year where winter tire sales have come earlier. Partly, that's demand, partly driven by the fact that there was a strong winter last year. So I think that our mix of winter tires improved this year. But to the extent those sales have come in the third quarter, then we'd expect our mix of winter tires to be a bit less in the fourth quarter.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And I believe we're also approaching the job deadline for the European farm tire sale? What's going on there, and is there an alternative plan as you go past that deadline?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

No. I think as we look at what's happening there, we continue to feel confident that we can get a deal done there as they -- a lot is going on. The teams are working with the local unions to resolve the future of the factory there. I think, we're -- we still have a lot of dialogue going on with both the Unions and Titan, and I think our view is that the parties will ultimately come to an agreement as soon as possible. It's taking a bit longer obviously than we thought, but I don't think we changed our perspective on getting the deal done.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes, one last one. Can you give us an update on what your pension asset performance is year-to-date?

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes. So I guess 2 points I'd make there. One is that September year-to-date, our asset returns were down minus 3% for the year. But if I look at those returns today, it's -- they're up 2% or 3% for the year. So -- and we've benefited from the recovery that we've seen over the last month.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

Christopher Reenock

Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citi

It's actually Chris Reenock for Itay. My first question is, just if you could speak directionally and broadly, if all stays equal right now, how should we think about price and mix in 2012?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citi

Well, I think, Chris, for price and mix in 2012, it's not something that we're going to give guidance on going forward. I will tell you, from a price/mix standpoint, if you look and you go back our strategy, our strategy very specifically is focused on innovative products getting the most customer back -- best innovative products in the marketplace, and selling those in the targeted market segments where we see the opportunities to sell our technologically advanced tires. That's what we're going to do. And relative to the raw materials that whatever that we're going to see in the future, as we've consistently set, our goal is to offset those raw materials with price and mix. So as we look to 2012, we're certainly not going to give you any guidance. But as we think about where we're headed with our strategy, and we think about the opportunities the market has for us, I'd say we feel pretty much very confident that we're going to continue to execute, excuse me, along that path.

Christopher Reenock

Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citi

Okay, great. And can you give us an update on Latin America and just where you see margins heading in Q4?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citi

Yes. So the Latin American businesses has got the same challenge a lot of manufacturing businesses have that operate in Brazil. And a big piece of that driven by the influx of low-cost imports that have become very inexpensive to Brazilian consumers based on the strength of the real and stability of that economy over the last several years. The import pressure continues, although the real has weakened a little bit, which makes imports more expensive. But I think I'll -- you'll look at that and say, that's not something that's going to resolve itself overnight and certainly not within the course of a quarter. So I think the import pressure continues to be there. The Brazilian real is a bit weaker so maybe that gives us some relief if that weakness continues. The cost inflation there continues to be an issue for us as well, and that's inflation in all types of costs. So let's set aside raw materials and think of it as energy, wages, in particular, benefits. So we've got some cost inflation to deal with as well in a very competitive environment. So I think that the business there, the outlook for Q4, a lot of the same pressures we saw in Q3 are going to be there in Q4. But if we look at the health of our business in the long run, we continue to have -- to do very well there in the premium branded part of the market. Our distribution channel continues to be a real competitive advantage for us. And I think as tire labeling and tire technologies progress, I think that's going to continue to be a very attractive market for us. So I think for the near term, some of the same pressures, for the long-term, I think we'll continue to see strength in that business.

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citi

I'd add one thing very quickly. Just from a macro perspective, I've said in the past that we've seen volatility in the Latin American business over the past 10, 20 years that most of us on the call might remember. When we look and we see periods of stability, our business has done very -- our core business has done very well. And when we see volatility, our core business still does very well. So the fact that we're seeing some of that volatility now, in the past, it's been currency revaluations, now it's a strong currency and imports coming in. I would tell you, those are circumstances that our team knows how to deal with. We're going to deal with them, and we feel confident that we can. So yes, we're seeing a little bit of that volatility that has really hallmarked Latin America for a long time. I'd say that's what we have, we're going to work our way through it, and I think that's the longer-term perspective I'd give you on it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Himanshu Patel with JPMorgan. Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: A couple of questions. I'd like to get a little bit into North America. Replacement volumes, I think, were down 10% for you guys. I thought the U.S. market was roughly flat on replacement. I know you guys are not focusing on some of the low-end demand, but it just seem like a bigger decline than what would I have expected. Was there something going on there with the timing of price/mix or whatever that made it a particularly tough volume quarter for you guys?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Himanshu Patel with JPMorgan

I think, Himanshu, there wasn't and I would go back to where you started this. Remember, our strategy has been, as you said and we're very with what's happened in the quarter. We said in the past our strategy is going to focus on innovation, on branded products, on targeted market segments and we're going to take advantage of sort of the MegaTrends shift towards those HVA tires. We also said that we're not going to pursue volume-for-volume's sake, and those are the decisions of which we ran the business this year and in the quarter. We make our decisions consistent with that philosophy. And I think what you saw is the results of North America, another very, very good quarter. Sort of the second highest individual quarter in absolute terms that we've had over the last 5, 6 years or so. So we've had lower volume, but we've had increased price and mix. We've improved our brand, our product and our channel mix going forward, our customer mix going forward. So we're very confident that the strategy is working, and certainly not to say that volume is not important to us. But more important is focusing on the strategy, and I think you saw some of that within the quarter.

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Himanshu Patel with JPMorgan

Himanshu, the only thing I would add is that the 18 million units a year ago made a pretty tough comp, I mean that was a strong volume quarter a year ago for us. Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. Can we shift to Europe a little bit? It sounds like there's a couple of cross currents for Q4. You're obviously talking about the winter tire mix receding sequentially. But also on the commercial truck side, it was a little bit surprising to see your industry forecast for EMEA commercial replacement go down by so much in just one quarter. I'm wondering, are you seeing any sort of cliff event in that subsegment, or it's just within 3 months to see the forecast go from 8.5% to 1% was kind of surprising? I'm curious, if you could shed some color on that.

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Himanshu Patel with JPMorgan

I think, Himanshu, you're right. We clearly saw softness in the third quarter with our volumes decreasing. And I think obviously, we're trying to look for signals in the marketplace as well. And I would tell you at this point, we see mixed signals out there. We certainly see it prudent to adjust our forecast, but we're really seeing a mixed signal as we sort of pulse the market. We're seeing a little bit of dealer destocking given what's been, as you know, very uncertain European economic environment. So there's some of that and there maybe some holds off on purchasing and inventory rather than just appear a lower industry demand. And in fact, when we look at some of the data that we get our hands on in terms of industry demand, we actually do see a reason to get an increase in the German toll data of trucks driving around there. So that gives us sort of a different signal than a downward view. And also, most recently, we saw e-registrations of trucks growing. So we see some positives and negatives in there. All that said, our conclusion I think is reflected on the forecast that we saw prudently to take it down. And what we can tell you is we will continue to monitor that very closely as we get into Q4 here. Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, and then last question. There's been a couple of tire makers that has announced plans to add capacity or I think entirely brand new plants into the U.S. I think there's a couple in South Carolina or somewhere in the Sun Belt. I know these are a few years away from being fully ramped up, but I guess I was just a little bit surprised to see that we've been kind of accustomed to people shutting down plants in the U.S. for the past decade. Can you talk a little bit to just kind of what's the cost competitiveness of U.S. tire manufacturing today versus where it was a few years ago? And I'm particularly interested on your view on the competitiveness of Chinese imports into this market. Have we gotten to a tipping point now where a combination of U.S. labor cost going down, maybe imported Asian cost going up, transportation cost going up whatever such that it no longer really makes that much economic sense to import tires here?

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Himanshu Patel with JPMorgan

Himanshu, I won't obviously, comment on our competitors action in terms of how they're thinking about it. But I think if you look at it, what I would point you back to is the MegaTrends that we've pointed toward back in our March meeting. And that really pointed toward sort of a distancing, if you will, of higher value-added tires versus sort of let's call them lower technology tires going forward. Those higher value-added tires as we sort of articulated back then have a higher margin associated with them. And as we look at the world today, we see probably more availability from a production perspective on the lower end, and less availability of production capability on the higher end. So I think what you see happening and the way we look at it, it's very, very consistent with how we saw the market developing. So as we look at production capacity, how we think about our production capacity, I should say, it's really about making the investments that can make the tires the market wants. And that means for us, it's adding capacity in places like Pulandian, China and in Chile. For us, it's also making -- fitting up our factory in Europe and North America to make those tires because we can sell them for a higher margin. And we would tell you, it's working at this point. So there's a lot of different things that I would say go into it. But I think the underlying point to take away from it is that the market really is looking at needing more products on the high end. That's a great environment for us, that's how we want to compete, and that gives us the opportunity to get more of those tires out of the factories, it gives us more the opportunity to grow our business. It's exactly the environment we want. And again, in North America, were doing some of that as well. We fitted up our Fayetteville factory, we made investments in Gadsden, made investments in Lawton and all those investments are to serve that high end of the market. And again if you look at North America, we still got to hit our marks. So I'm not putting the cart in front of the horse here, but clearly that strategy is working. And I think that's how I think that capacity coming on should be framed.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line up Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc

I wanted to continue on, especially in the commercial vehicle. First, very simply, can you give us a quick split between North America, Europe and Asia in your commercial vehicle business? And then secondly, can you tell us what commercial vehicle replacement demand did in Europe, their percentage year-over-year change. I know you gave us the aggregate, but can you give us the breakout of what commercial vehicle did in Europe?

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · KeyBanc

No. I mean, the answer to your last question is we saw the industry down about 9 percentage points in the quarter for European truck commercial replacement. And again, I think what we saw there is some inventory destocking in dealers after a real strong first and second quarter sell in for manufacturers to dealers. So I think we saw some dealers backing off the inventories that they've been building up. In North America, we continue to see some increases in the quarter. If you look at Goodyear's commercial truck business and there's a slide in the appendix in today's presentation that gives you the sales, it's Slide 15 in the deck. The commercial units overall went up for us in the quarter, so up about 4% for us globally. I think that you can tell that U.S. was a better trend than Europe given the industry trends there. But if you look at our business overall, it's a business where most of the 20% of our sales in commercial truck business are split between Europe and North America. Our next largest is in Latin America. Latin America, it's large relative to the size of our Latin American business. It's a bigger mix of commercial truck there than it is elsewhere. But from a sheer volume and revenue perspective, smaller than our businesses in North America and Europe. Asia Pacific, our participation in the commercial truck business is pretty limited. We don't build radial truck tires in Asia. So we have some residual bias business, which has been a business trending down over time. So relatively small business for us in Asia, but a big opportunity. So part of our investment in China is investment in being able to build medium radial truck tires for that market. And that's the largest truck tire market in the world, so that's something that will become a factor for us going forward.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc

In raw materials, you've given us the guidance for the fourth quarter. But as we look out into the first quarter, it looks as though raw material costs should trend down. And I was wondering, what's your thoughts are on a preliminary basis in terms of raw material cost? And in particular, floods in Thailand. Last year, there's concern that rain in Thailand was negatively impacting or could negatively impact natural rubber supply. Do you have any thoughts on how the floods in Thailand might or might not impact natural rubber pricing? Because it doesn't appear as though it has.

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · KeyBanc

At this point, we have not seen any impact on natural rubber. And as we look at it, it's not something that's expected now. That said, you never know what ultimately happens there. But that's not the -- that does not seem to be a concern right now. We're not seeing it in pricing, and we're not -- certainly not seeing it in supply in terms of actually getting natural rubber, so that's not a primary concern for us. And I think, talking about raw materials, the question on where raw materials go. I think I'd have to point back again to the fact that our Q3 -- in the third quarter, we had price/mix of $740 million offsetting what was again about a 30% increase in raw material prices. It's the second quarter in a row that we offset those high cost increases again of about 30% each so we feel very, very confident of that. Before we talk about lower raw material prices that could potentially be there, as we look to the fourth quarter I think that Darren mentioned, we still have more lifting to do. We've got another 30% coming at us or another, say, $600 million. And I would tell you, that's where our focus is. And as we look at that, we're very confident that between the previously announced price increases that we have, our focus on mix on those targeted market segments will allow us to offset those increases that we're going to see in the first quarter. Despite again, as Darren mentioned earlier as we talk a little bit about the mix change on having less winter tires coming into the fall in the fourth quarter that we do -- that we've in the third quarter. So that's how we look at it longer term. I think in February, we'll talk more about where our outlooks are for raw materials. Probably best to hold off then till we comment on where natural rubber and other raw material prices are until then.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc

And just sequentially, Darren. Does Union City and Amiens, France benefit sequentially from the third to the fourth quarter -- your fourth quarter results, or is that predominantly going to start to benefit you in the 2012 time frame?

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · KeyBanc

I think, the Amiens plant as Rich mentioned, we have not completed the closure yet. So that's something that still out in front of us. For the Union City closure, I think the way to think about that is the real benefit of the Union City closure starts in 2012. We've -- the plant has been closed and so in the third quarter, the cost of running that plant weren't there. After a one quarter lag, that would -- you'd expect to see that in the fourth quarter. It's been offset by some of the transition costs that we incurred to take products we were building in that plant and moved them to other plants. So you really don't see the benefit coming through in Q4, but you should start seeing benefit starting in Q1.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

A couple of questions. On the cost savings line, it looks like you already achieved $720 million of the $1 billion with a year and a quarter ago. Any chance that you have more ripe out of there or is the base of gains going to slow down going forward?

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

So Ravi, cost savings is going to continue to be a big focus area for us, no question. There's some things that as we -- third quarter looked very good. We had over $100 million of cost savings. Although $15 million of that came from the favorable claims experienced in product liability, so essentially an accrual being adjusted downward. You saw $48 million of it related to lower raw material costs or savings we've implemented there. And so a couple of things. I think in one sense, we've got some good track record and good momentum, although I think the -- as we look at the fourth quarter, we're not going to get the recurring savings from a onetime adjustment to workers' comp accruals we had a year ago. So that reverses itself and in fact, becomes a bit of a headwind for Q4. We've got transitional manufacturing costs coming through from the plant closures, including Union City. And we've got continued pressure from profit sharing in North America and we scorekeep those as part of our efficiency. So those make the cost savings a bit tougher. I think as Rich said, we feel like there's more that we can do to become more efficient in our operations, and we're going to keep pushing on that. But at this point, we're going to stick with the goal that we've set out which is a to achieve $1 billion savings over 3 years.

Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Got it. And I know it's a dangerous exercise, but if you annualize your SOI of this quarter, you're above your 2013 target. Any chance you think you can bring that forward or raise that?

Darren R. Wells

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Ravi, I can tell you, we're always pushing ourselves and pushing internally to reach all of our goals faster. I would tell you the way we think about it is that's our goal. When we hit that objective, then we're going to go change it. But rest assured, we're going to do everything we can internally. We are doing everything we can internally to reach those goals as fast as we can.

Operator

Operator

I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Richard J. Kramer

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, everyone, we appreciate you listening today and we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.