Earnings Labs

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 8, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Keith and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to hand the program over to Christina Zamarro, Goodyear's Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am. Christina Zamarro - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, everyone, for joining us for Goodyear's fourth quarter 2016 earnings call. Joining me today are Rich Kramer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Laura Thompson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, there are a few items we need to cover. To begin, the supporting slide presentation for today's call can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, and a replay of this call will be available later today. Replay instructions were included in our earnings release issued earlier this morning. If I could now draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on slide 2, I would like to remind participants on today's call that our presentation includes some forward-looking statements about Goodyear's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today. The most significant factors that could affect future results are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in our earnings release. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Our financial results are presented on a GAAP basis and in some cases, on non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed on our call are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent as part…

Operator

Operator

And we can take our first question from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Good morning, David. David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning, Rich. Good morning, Laura. Couple questions on my end. First on really price/mix cadence as we're thinking about this. It sounds as if first half of the year clearly going to be down and maybe having that made up in the second half of the year. Can you help us think about the magnitude of the first quarter? Are we talking down triple digits for price/mix less raws in the first quarter in aggregate? Maybe (34:09) I'll stop right there before the next one. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Okay. So you're exactly right, David. We do expect for the first half of the year, our price/mix versus raws to be negative and turning positive in the second half of the year. Our raws, specifically, in the first quarter, we're thinking it's going to be down and just more like 7% – 7% to 9% or so with that increasing more as we get into the second quarter. So more heavy weighted to the second quarter as you think about the first half. No, I don't see it as triple digits, I think, as you mentioned it in your question. David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And then from a pricing perspective, you've announced up to 8% in the U.S. You've seen a lot of fast followers, you've seen the other global Big Three follow you there with Michelin and Bridgestone announcing similar price increases. Are you expecting that amount to stick in its entirety? Do you think maybe that gets cut in half is realistic? And…

Operator

Operator

We'll take the next question from Itay Michaeli with Citi. Please go ahead.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Management

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Morning, Itay. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Morning.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Management

Just on page 17, I appreciate the color on some of the potential 2018 drivers, wondering if there are any other buckets we should be thinking about at this point for 2018, particularly in some of the other elements like R&D and depreciation, just kind of want to understand if you think these are the main buckets for SOI growth, if there's any other factors – potentially offsetting factors to think about as well for 2018. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Well, Itay, I'll start and Laura can jump in as well. I mean I think as we look at this, we have managed through a lot of headwinds, differing headwinds over time, and I think one of the elements on here is that the cost bucket. I mean you see a line on there for costs, but at the end of the day, we will continue to manage our investments and our – not on this page. Obviously, this is an SOI page – but we'll be prudent allocators of our capital. We will certainly look at all our costs and expenses whether it's advertising, it's R&D, and manage those in the context of – prioritize those in the context of the environment that we're dealing with. So, this isn't an all-inclusive bucket, but these are some of the things, as we think about 2017, 2018 sort of together as we look at what we need to offset over time here, these are the things to say, they're going to be benefiting us as we look out into the future, particularly into 2018. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: And I think if you look at our SOI walk chart for our 2020 target, some of your questions on some of the…

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Management

That's very helpful. And just a follow-up question just on slide 7, I think your leverage ratio of 2.39 times is a little bit higher than I think what you thought you'd come in at 2 to 2.1 times for the end of 2016. Could you just update us on how you're thinking about debt reduction versus buybacks, and that glide path to, I believe, your 1.5 times leverage ratio by 2020? Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Okay, sure. So, I think – let's go through it maybe this way. As we think about our share repurchase – maybe I'll hit that one – certainly, the authorization increase of $1 billion is meant to go beyond 2017, that our share repurchase historically, you've seen us kind of time those with when we generate the cash, which is normally concentrated towards the fourth quarter. So I think – now, as you think about the 2016 impact that you pointed out, that certainly was impacted by the earnings decline related to the U.S. commercial truck market, frankly. As we think about our capital allocation plan, everything still holds. Nothing we saw in 2016 changes that. Our free cash flow is balanced between debt repayment as well as our shareholder return programs.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Management

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks so much. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Itay. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Hi, Ryan.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi. We've seen you and your competitors announce price increases in the U.S. I've not seen as many price actions being announced in Europe. Is that consistent with what you're seeing, or maybe it's just a case that the increases there are made more stealthily or harder to track from the U.S. Do you think one region or another may have more or less difficulty in passing along price increases in 2017? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Ryan, as you would imagine, we manage our business market by market, and you rightly pointed out that we had announced price increases in North America of up to 8% in consumer and commercial effective 1 February. And as I mentioned just a bit ago as well, we announced as of 1st of February in Europe, again, up to 8% on consumer and commercial effective 1st of March as well. And, again, we have, market by market, made announcements, I certainly won't go through them on this call, but we only can speak to our situation. And our situation, again, I would point back to, our goal is to recapture or capture the value for the entire value proposition we put out there. Input costs are one of them, and obviously very significant at this moment as it has been in the past. But our philosophy around the world is to put a value proposition out there that creates competitive advantage and that's what we're ultimately trying to accomplish.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thanks. And then, I was just hoping – and maybe to revisit a topic from last quarter's call on the impact to Goodyear of the China TBR tariff. So, looking at some of the RMA import data, it shows that the imports of commercial truck tires, they've already started to decline maybe even sizably in the back half of 2016. Is it the case that you're seeing this too, but that there's still a volume headwind for you because of the distributors maybe being in a still overstocked position after a pre-buy? And then, at some point I imagine this should turn into a nice volume tailwind for you on market share gain. When do you think that that will occur? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: So, Ryan, it's a good question. I think to the first question just on the tariff itself, I think the issue that we still see, and we did speak to it last quarter as well, is essentially there's a lot of inventory in the channels reflective of the big pre-buys that came as was the case with consumer as well. So, the channels have a lot of inventories still in them and our view is that it's still going to take the first half to work its way through the channels. So that something is there. Just like with the consumer side, our view is we sort of have to look at the business, and we do, in a steady state trying to adjust for some of the aberrations of the pre-buys and then the significant stop (48:54) buyings of imported tires because of tariffs and look at it – look at sell-out over time because that's a more true picture of the market that we have to deal…

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

That's a very helpful color. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc. Please go ahead. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Hi, Brett. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Good morning, Brett.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Just a couple of quick questions here. First of all, if I take your raw material impact of $1.1 billion divide it by about $15 billion in sales, I get about a 7% increase necessary on the pricing side. Is that kind of how you're thinking about it, which would seem to imply that you don't need another price increase, or is it possible that you might need another price increase given current raw material levels? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Ryan (sic) [Brett], we can only speak to the situation that we see at hand. So, I... Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Right. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: ...I can't comment on what's ahead. What I can say is that we have a demonstrated track record to deal with what's.... Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Whatever. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: ...thrown in front of us. And that's what you can expect from us going forward. What we're in, what I can say is that clearly the raw material inputs that we've got have been very volatile and I would even say unpredictable. I mean, we saw steep, steep increases in our raw material costs, not only natural rubber which you saw. I'm sure many of you have seen or will look at an article even in The Journal this morning that talks about one of the reasons being speculation in China and the like. We know we've had floods in Thailand relative to natural rubber. On butadiene, we've had some unplanned factory shutdowns and the like. So, there's some causes for this. But our view is raw materials are going to stay at a heightened level, as I said in my script, and we have a philosophy here, play it as it lies, and that's what we're going to go do. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: I mean, Brett, just since – even since to the Detroit Auto Show, right, we've gone up over $300 million in raw material cost increases just in the last three weeks. So, it is quite volatile, just to reiterate that point.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

And then switching gears, how do we think about the pace of share repurchase. If I take a look at your $3.5 billion to $4 billion over a four-year period of time, that seems to suggest that you might be buying back in the range of about 10% per year on a constant basis. But is there some reason to believe that that's going to be substantially lower in 2017 versus, let's say, 2018, 2019 or 2020? Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: So, I think I talked about it earlier and we'll keep you updated as we go throughout the year, Brett. But I think we all – if you go back in history, as we generate the cash, we spend it, whether it's debt repayment or things like share repurchases. So, I think as we – we still, I mean, look at the outlook charts that we have. We certainly expect strong free cash flows in 2017, of course. And given that, I think based on our history, we'll time that as we generate the cash, which is really, for us, concentrated in the fourth quarter. Now, just overall as a 2020 comment, the share repurchases are directly correlated to the growth in the earnings through that 2020 plan. Absolutely.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Fair enough. Thank you very much. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Okay. Thank you, Brett. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Brett.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Paresh Jain with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Paresh B. Jain - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning, everyone. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Good morning, Paresh. Paresh B. Jain - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Good morning. Paresh B. Jain - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Just a couple of questions on the OE exposure actually and slightly longer term. In a situation where the 17-inch supply basically falls short of demand, which is what you're forecasting, I'm guessing it would be fair to assume that your capacity would first address your OE customer demand before meeting replacement. Can you provide any color on how you're splitting that incremental demand between OE and replacement through 2020? And in the event U.S. South continues to grow over the next two years for some reason, should I consider that as a headwind to your 2020 outlook? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: So, to the first question, Paresh, I would say what we have to do is manage the volatility or the changes in demand between replacement and OE, and we do that being able to toggle that product back and forth between the two markets. Clearly, our strategy, as we've indicated, starts with getting on those high-loyalty fitments that succeed in first and second to maybe even third replacement as they get into the market. So, OE is something that clearly is a priority for us, and it's really prioritize in the sense of obligations, contractual obligations as well as we work with each of the OEs. But OEs change their production schedules. And as they do, we need to go back and then figure out…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take the next question from Emmanuel Rosner with CLSA.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Good morning, Emmanuel.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Management

So, first, just a quick housekeeping question on the quarter. The fourth quarter SOI, I think, I mean is a little bit below the low end of the guidance you had given in October. But I think the EPS was a bit above expectations. And as far as I could say, it was basically the contribution from other income. Anything specific in that other income bucket and whether that's something that we could expect to be recurring? Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Okay. So, first, maybe just to make sure we have the numbers clear, our outlook for the fourth quarter was to be between $2 billion and $2.025 billion, and we came in for the year at $2.009 billion, okay, so right where we think we should be, okay, overall. Now, on the guide, I think, Christina can walk you through that, those pieces part, if you'd like. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Yeah. And, Emmanuel, I would say there's really – Christina can walk you through the other items. There is nothing unusual in there to highlight for you. What I would say, though, is we focus our guidance a lot on segment operating income because that's sort of the number that we manage. But I can tell you we put a tremendous amount of effort as well on managing net income and EPS, whether it's tax planning, whether it's... Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Interest expense. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: ...managing our financings, and things like these. So, that is obviously, to state the obvious, a priority for us. But as you look at that forecast, again, Christina can take you through all the elements, but I don't think there's anything in there that you're going to – there's nothing in there that you would highlight to say, oh, that's a surprise we didn't tell you about. It's more of business as usual, normal course.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Management

Okay. And I guess, more fundamentally then, so I was hoping if you could go into a little bit more detail or quantification of the mechanism to recover some of these raw materials especially the contractual part, like if I look at your expectation for $1.1 billion in raw material increase in 2017 at spot prices, how much roughly of that would it just be automatically you will get back based on contracts? And how much would be things where you would have to basically pass on a price increase on the market in order to be able to get it back? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Yeah. So, Emmanuel, I'll maybe try to answer that from a couple of different ways. We estimate about 35% of our business is covered by RMI agreements and the like. And that again is primarily OEM or new car manufacturers as well as certain commercial fleets and mining fleets out there. By and large, that's what ultimately covers it. And those agreements are in there, so that mechanism normally resets round about every six months or so. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: On average. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: (01:00:06) on average. Some are quicker. Some are a little bit longer. But on average, I think it's a reasonably good proxy. And for us, as I mentioned, and I think for our customers as well, it gives us good transparency and visibility into our costs and their costs as they move ahead. So, I think it's a mutually beneficial type agreement that we put in there. And again, in a period of rising raw material costs, we're going to lag in terms of recovering those raw material costs because of that. And that situation will continue until such time that those raw materials stabilize and we can catch up. Of course, that reverses itself as well as raw material goes down with that lag. So, right now, as we see raw materials increase as they come into our P&L, I think as David asked earlier, Q2 is going to be really a bigger hit of incremental year-over-year raw material cost increases as well then in (01:01:08) Q3 and Q4 as we look at the forecast here. So, those RMI contracts have to catch up. That's why we have a lag between being able to offset everything in a really sort of finite period of time, if you will, of 12 months calendar year. So, that's how the RMI contracts work. But I think they're very effective. They're a good answer for us, and we believe that that's ultimately will happen over the period of time. The others, those aren't (01:01:38) negotiated agreements with our customers that are out there, so.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Management

Understood. And then finally, just on your – some of the tax plans that are being considered for the U.S., obviously, you're currently sitting in an incredibly good position with your manufacturing being done basically in the U.S., but you're also working on that Mexico plant. Any initial thoughts in terms of the parameters of what would affect – would you change to reflect (01:02:08) the way or the place your future tires will be produced in case some of these border adjustment taxes go through? Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: So, Emmanuel, you're correct to state that it's clear around the world including in the U.S., our strategy generally is that we make the tires where we sell the tires. And certainly, like I said, that's the case for the U.S. So, in that sense, you're correct in your assessment, but, right, and certainly my actually (01:02:40) caveat all of this with there's just a tremendous amount of unknowns and no details around a lot of the statements that are being made. But remember, we do import natural rubber from Asia into the U.S., and you can't get that in the U.S., so it's all imported. So, there would be a tax consequence opposite on that side. Bottom line is, though, because of that and, like I said, especially if you look at 2016, we import very few tires into the U.S., but we are a net importer, when you think of it, to the tune maybe of a couple hundred million dollars driven by that natural rubber piece of the business. Now, there's a lot of other things going on in these Ryan plans and taxes and so on, so again, hard to figure out, not a lot of details. So, kind of on…

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Management

Great. Thanks for the color. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Ashik Kurian with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Ashik Kurian - Jefferies International Ltd.

Management

Hi. Thanks for taking my... Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Hello, Ashik.

Ashik Kurian - Jefferies International Ltd.

Management

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just have one left. And how to think about your volume and market share development factored into your 2020 plan. Because if you look back, you have strong track record of driving mix and net neutral price have come during a period of very limited volume growth. Even in 2016, you flagged declining sales in less-than-17-inch segment. And given that it's still around 60% of your portfolio, I've struggled to think of volume growth and continued price/mix that you have in your 2020 plan as mutually exclusive, so interested to get your thoughts on how we see your volumes developing from here. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Ashik, I think it's actually a very good question and I'll say first time, second time, third time, our focus is on those 20 million HVA 17-inch and larger-rim diameter tires because that's where the profit pool of the industry is. That's where our growth is ultimately going to be. Just as we have in the past, we will also manage those parts of the market where we're not able to get paid for the value we put into those products, whether that's competitive environments, whether it's demand decreasing. Whatever that might be, we will take the decisions accordingly. But our goal is not – to simply not focus on, as you said, that part of the market as well. We have a lot of profitable and attractive fitments in that part of the market, let's say, 16-inch-and-below. And remember, while we don't put it in that number, I just came back, as an example, from one of the capital investments we're making in India, and the 16-inch market there is a fantastic market for us. Certain countries in Latin America, it's still a fantastic market for us. In fact, we're growing our volumes in that in certain markets in Latin America. So, I think it is something that we will manage, but we will manage it relative to hitting our profit goals, and we will certainly preference those tires that are being sold where the profit pool is growing. So, it's something we will manage, but I would say we don't really – there's no difference from what we said in September to that question.

Ashik Kurian - Jefferies International Ltd.

Management

Just to follow up, if I can, is it fair to summarize that in your 2020 bridge, maybe volume is probably the least fixed of the buckets? Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: That's a difficult one to say because there can be volatility in a number of those buckets, raw material being one of them as we're going through here. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Yeah. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: But I understand your question. I think what I can say about that bucket is we will stick to our philosophy of not pursuing volume for volume's sake, but to drive, as I candidly, not to be repetitive – as our strategy roadmap says, our goal is sustainable revenue and profit growth. That's what we have to do, and that's the context in which we'll make those decisions. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: And as we look at that, we know the market needs the greater-than-17-inch tires especially in the mature markets. A lot of that volume is about us also making those 20 million more tires, a lot in our control in that sense and timing. And our overall philosophy, as Rich always says, is just it's not volume for volume's sake; it is about profitable growth. And that's what we see that greater-than-17-inch market primarily giving us in that bucket for that 2020 walk.

Ashik Kurian - Jefferies International Ltd.

Management

Thank you. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thanks, Ashik. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Welcome. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take today's final question from Paul Kratz with Berenberg. Please go ahead. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Hello, Paul. Paul Kratz - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom): Hi. Good morning. I just had a quick question. I think on what you said in the OTR markets that you kind of see the development this year being a bit flattish, maybe a bit in the weak end. And I think it's interesting because this is in contrast with a lot of the competitors who have been pushing I think a relatively bullish view of the market. I mean, could you maybe give us an idea directionally where you see the OTR market and maybe if you could confirm, is this primarily mining that's driving this weakness in the OTR business for you guys or is it something else that maybe I'm not picking up on? Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Right. So, I'll answer your last question first. Mining is driving that weakness, certainly. We would love for the OTR business to rebound. But we do see inventories out there. They're not any higher than they were. They're a little lower, but people are also buying a few tires here and there, just smaller tires. So, I think to your point, if mining picks up, that is about the larger tires, the mix comes back, and so on. Now, for us, we certainly are about $100 million off our peak earnings in that OTR business but again, not building in a big rebound certainly for 2017 in that market at all. Now, again, we do – likely between now and 2020, there should be a rebound at some point or better than what it's been performing, but it's not the way we see it certainly for 2017. Paul Kratz - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom): Perfect. It's very clear. Thank you. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Okay. Thank you, Paul. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you, Paul. Richard J. Kramer - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: And I think that was our last question. So, I just appreciate everyone's attention today, and we thank you for that. Laura K. Thompson - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this will conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a [Abrupt End].