Earnings Labs

Hafnia Limited (HAFN)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 23, 2024

$8.80

+2.44%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+2.37%

1 Week

+1.88%

1 Month

-10.00%

vs S&P

-11.81%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Hafnia Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. You will be brought through the presentation by Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov; CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; EVP, Commercial, Jens Christophersen; and EVP, Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen. They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation. [Operator Instructions] Questions will be answered at the end of the presentation. You will receive further instructions as required. During this conference call, some statements may be considered forward-looking, reflecting management's current expectations. These statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond Hafnia's control that could cause actual results, performance, or plans to differ significantly from those expressed or implied. Additionally, this conference call does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnia CEO, Mikael Skov.

Mikael Skov

Analyst

Thank you. Hello, everyone. I'm Mikael Skov, CEO of Hafnia. Thank you for joining Hafnia's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me here today are our CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; EVP, Commercial, Jens Christophersen; and EVP and Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen. Together we will present Hafnia's performance for the second quarter of 2024. Today's presentation agenda will cover four key topics. First, I will begin with a summary of our key achievements and events from the second quarter. Following that, I will provide an overview of Hafnia's key investment highlights. Next, we will discuss commercial updates and provide an outlook on the product tanker market. After that, we will delve into our financial performance for the quarter. And finally, we will conclude with an overview of our ESG projects. Let's move to the next slide. Slide number 2, before proceeding, you should all be aware and take note of the mandatory disclaimer. Some statements in this call may be forward looking and carry inherent risks. This call does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. Thank you for your attention and let's start the presentation. Let me begin by outlining some of the key highlights from the quarter. Slide number 4. I'm pleased to announce another strong quarter of financial results for Hafnia. In the second quarter, we achieved a net profit of $259.2 million, bringing our total net profit for the first half of 2024 to $478.8 million. This quarter marks our best performance since the start of 2023 and represents the strongest first half result in our company's history. In line with these robust results and our recent increase in the dividend payout ratio, I'm pleased to announce a dividend payout of 80% of net income for the quarter. This translates to a…

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

Thank you, Michael. Hafnia primarily operates within the cyclical and volatile product tanker segment, where charter rates and tanker capacities are influenced by multiple factors. Over the next few slides we will provide an update on the current market conditions and share our expectations about the forward outlook. Since the beginning of 2024, an already strong product tanker market has experienced further positive momentum. Ongoing safety concerns in the Red Sea have led to shifts in trade routes with vessels rerouting from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope. Additionally, droughts in the Panama Canal and low diesel inventories in Europe have further contributed to a robust second quarter. Volumes of CPP and chemicals on water continue to steadily increase, largely driven by geopolitical unrest. Currently, approximately 20% of these volumes are rooted via the Cape of Good Hope, with Russian CPPs making up about 13%, double the pre-sanctions average. We are experiencing historically high levels of CPPs on water, and we anticipate these elevated volumes will persist through the end of the year. The graph on the right-hand side shows transportation demand development expressed in CPP ton-days and how this has impacted MR and LR1 earnings. Next slide. Similarly, when we examine the ton-mile effect, we observe a significant impact. Since 2018, we have witnessed a steady rise in daily CPP and chemicals loadings. This disproportionate rise in ton-miles can be largely attributive to the geopolitical unrest and the dislocation of refineries, with eastern refineries increasingly supplying Atlantic consumers via the Cape Good Hope. On the other hand, crude and DPP daily loadings and ton miles have seen a slight decline as they continue to struggle under the weight of OPEC+ production cuts. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the high ton-mile levels for CPPs will persist, driven…

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Thanks, Jens. As highlighted by Michael and Jens earlier, we've seen a continued strong market in the second quarter of the year. As a result, we experienced sustained high earnings across all segments, generating a TCE income of $417.4 million and bringing our half-year TCE income to $796.2 million. This is against the $726.5 million for the first six months last year, the highest in half year history for both periods. Our fee focused business has also benefited from this strong rate environment, generating $10.7 million from our commercial managed pool and bunker procurement business. These adjacent business streams have continuously performed well. Our balance sheet has further strengthened with a cash balance of $167 million at the end of the quarter and a total liquidity of around $591 million. This includes $424 million in undrawn credit facilities. At the end of the second quarter, approximately 88.6% of our loans were hedged at the weighted average of 1.77% base rate or on a SOFR basis. This hedging strategy has largely protected us against a high and volatile interest rate environment and thereby controlling the finance costs. During the quarter, we further optimized our balance sheet by reducing our leverage ratio. Our net LTV ratio has further decreased to 21.3% at the end of June, driven by higher vessel valuations, strong cash flow generation and the subsequent debt repayments. Our net LTV has been on a steady downward trajectory, reducing by more than 8% compared to the second quarter last year. This deleveraging has gone in parallel with increased shareholder distributions in the form of cash dividends. Of course, depending on markets and valuations, we do anticipate reaching our next milestone in our dividend payout policy of a net LTV below 20% before the end of the year. This would trigger…

Mikael Skov

Analyst

Thank you so much. We're now on Slide 19. Moving on, I would like to provide insight into Hafnia’a ESG strategy and targets. As we navigate the evolving maritime landscape, we acknowledge the inherent responsibility across our operations and are committed to minimizing our environmental footprint. Additionally, we have focused on fostering diversity, inclusion, belonging and equity, as well as maintaining high standards of corporate governance within our organization. We recognize that collaboration is key to overcoming the challenges within our sector. That is why we actively engage with industry peers, international organizations, and other stakeholders to address these challenges collectively and effectively. Slide number 20. Next I would like to highlight some of the key ESG projects Hafnia is actively engaged in as we lead the way towards a more sustainable maritime industry. To realize our vision of greener maritime sector and in preparation of an increasingly technologically advanced world, we are involved in several forward-looking projects that align with our long-term ESG goals and the broader global energy transition. We are exploring a joint venture with Big Hill on the development of a hydrocarbon fuels plant that will produce low carbon intensity blue methanol and in the future, sustainable aviation fuel. Still subject to FID, this project will develop new sustainable shipping opportunities within the CO2, methanol and sustainable fuel sectors. We are also co-founders of Complexio, a foundational AI company that is trained on big data, which will ultimately streamline tasks and enhance value extraction within our organization. Our ESG focus extends beyond these projects and is deeply embedded in every employee. We continuously seek innovation and collaboration across this space, and remain firmly committed to making significant strides towards advancing sustainability across the maritime sector. Slide 21. To conclude, I hold a positive outlook on Hafnia's ongoing commitment to fostering a greener maritime sector and leveraging our strategically positioned modern fleet. We will continue to build on this strong momentum to produce even greater results. This will allow us to pursue our objectives, invest in a greener future, and provide greater returns for our shareholders. This concludes our presentation. With that, I would now like to open the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

We will begin our Q&A session now. [Operator Instructions] So, Omar Nokta, may I ask you to unmute yourself?

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, thank you. Hi, guys. Thanks for the presentation. A couple of questions on my end. Maybe just on the first one, it looks like you realized averages across all four segments were higher sequentially, which we really haven't seen this earnings season from your peers. The LR2s were notably quite strong at 60,000. I know it's not a big part of your fleet, but just, can you maybe discuss what drove that outperformance in the second quarter and how do you think that this market is developing as we look into 3Q and beyond given all the talk of Suezmaxes and VLCCs looking to catapult onto that strength?

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

Hi, Omar, this is Jens. Good question there. On the LR2 segment, as you know, we have relatively few ships compared to some of our peers. But the good result is really down to good positioning of the ships and a quarter that spans 90 days. So there's an element of accounting principle in it. Today our LR2 fleet is equally balanced between East and West where the markets are also more or less at the same earnings levels. You also asked a little bit about the VLCCs and Suezmaxes that have been cleaning up and taking out clean cargos. Yes, we felt that in the LR2 and LR1 segments in particular as well. But I think it's noteworthy to see that we are in the lowest seasonally quarter of the year and yet we are still producing good earnings despite all that volume having been taken out of our markets. So we are constructed for the end of Q3 and start of Q4 where we expect the crude chips to pick up in freight rates again. Already now we see less of that cannibalization than we saw just a month ago simply because freight have sort of aligned themselves a bit. I hope that answers your question.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

It does, Jens. And maybe just a quick follow up just on that point. We've seen that the LR market's definitely been a strong performer since 2022, and VLCCs have generally lagged. So just maybe, what do you think -- why do you think there's been that surge this year? Is it really the rate differential between the large cruise ships and the LRs? Is it just the rate or is it really the -- is there rerouting and going around the long haul from Middle East to Europe? Is that what's driving that trade? I know it's a tough question, but is it the long haul or the rate?

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

It's a good question. So it's the rates. That is the answer. And what we saw in Q2 was that LR2 freight from the Middle East to Europe ran all the way up to $8 million a ship. And with that type of freight it became more beneficial for some of our customers to take the risk, clean up Suezmaxes and VLCCs and simply get the benefit of the scale on these bigger ships on the diesel that they've been transporting. So that's what we saw. The concept of Suezmaxes and VLCCs transporting clean products is an old one. The trade has always been there but it's been predominantly done on new buildings in the past. So the development we saw here, we see that as a one-off because the clean market went up as much as it did.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Got it. Okay, thank you.

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

Thank you. Final one and I'll turn it over after this one. Just wanted to ask, you mentioned in the financials, getting down to the sub 20% is happening before year-end, which would then trigger the payout to 90%. Is that something you see happening sooner? Could that happen by the end of 3Q? Are we on pace for that or do you think this is more of a 4Q event?

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Sorry, took long to find the unmute button. Hi, Omar, good question. Yeah, we've indicated a second half of the year. I mean, it really depends on where values are going but obviously the trajectory is to go below 20%.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay, I appreciate that, Perry. Thank you. That's it for me.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Omar. Frode Morkedal, may I ask you to unmute yourself?

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

Hi guys, thank you. Just a quick question on the markets. Regarding the Panama Canal, I guess it's been in focus recently. I just wondered if you have any views on the impact on the product tanker market. I think it was a positive event initially, and then we've seen some normalization, so to speak. Do you think it has already happened negatively speaking in terms of the impact or is this more to go, you think?

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Frode. This is Jens. Our observation is that the delays in the Panama Canal has abated and we are back to the daily number of transits that we saw before the drought kicked in at the back-end of 2023. So we feel that all that, let’s say, improved efficiency on the Panama Canal has already been factored into the market.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

Okay, that's good to hear. I also get some incoming questions on Russia, Ukraine, and the impact of product tankers. Do you have any updated view on what the impact has been so far in terms of ton-mile improvements?

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

I think we do our numbers and everybody do their numbers. There's probably a level of uncertainty to it. We've been measuring CPP on water and what we see is that the Russian volumes themselves, they have doubled their presence on water compared to pre-sanctions level. So that's probably an increase of maybe 5%, 6% in demand.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

Okay, what if at some point that ends, is there any -- the shadow fleet, what's your view on there? Could there be some type of mitigating factor by the shadow fleet being removed, so to speak?

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

I think that's a very big question. It's too difficult to put any precise numbers on that. Without a doubt, it would have an impact on demand if the sanctions on Russia, they were lifted. What would happen after that is hard to speculate on at this point in time.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

Yeah, I understand. Yes, that's the question we're receiving, right? So tough question, obviously. But I guess it might be some type of supply mitigation, so to speak, as well, of fleet being scrapped or removed. Anyway, maybe another time then. Thank you.

Jens Christophersen

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Frode. [Sherif Maghrabi] (ph), may I ask you to unmute yourself?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. So you mentioned the startup of Dangote. Can you give us some color on how that's changed trade flow since coming online? And also, how do you see that impact going forward as the refinery produces, A, more diesel, but then, B, starting next month, gasoline as well?

Mikael Skov

Analyst

Yeah, good question. The expectation of the industry has been for many years that this would be a negative for product tanker demand. Our expectation so far from having observed the trade flows around the Dangote refinery here in the first four to six months has been that it's created more cargo activity and more trading in and out of Nigeria. So we feel it's been positive so far. It will be interesting to follow the development as the quality of the Dangote production picks up. It is a refinery that's designed to produce higher specifications than what's required in Nigeria. So from that perspective, we believe that there's definitely potential that gasoline could be moving out of Dangote towards the US or other markets where they have higher requirements to quality. So, overall, we think it's a positive thing for the product tanker market. Thank you.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then on the four methanol capable newbuilds, do you expect them to run on methanol when they hit the water? And given last week's cancellation of a Swedish project for marine e-methanol, can you speak to the availability of methanol bunkering over the next few years?

Mikael Skov

Analyst

In terms of our four MRs, we really don't know if they will be running on methanol or standard fuels. It's up to our customers to make those choices. And in terms of the availability of methanol bunker fuels, it's too early for us to make any comments on the availability of it.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Mikael Skov

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Sherif. [Clement] (ph), may I ask you to unmute yourself?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. You've been historically mostly exposed to the spot market while also having some time charter cover, especially on the LR2 side. But you've shifted towards higher spot exposure over the past few years, which so far has been the right decision. How are you thinking about potentially adding some cover at prevailing period rates?

Mikael Skov

Analyst

Yeah, hi. As you say, it's been a good decision for us to have a higher exposure towards the spot market for the past couple of years. And with time charter rates having increased as much as they have, we're also looking at increasing our coverage potentially. But this is something we value it as and when we go by during the upcoming quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you. I also wanted to ask about the synthetic hydrocarbon fuel plant JV with Big Hill. What kind of timeline is the project targeting? And secondly, should FID be reached? What kind of equity outlay should we expect, net to Hafnia?

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Yeah, hello. Production will be in ‘28, ‘29 only. Equity wise, we are in it for the shipping, so that would be to invest in ships on those also long-term contracts.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

All right, makes sense. Thank you for taking my questions.

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Operator

I'm not actually seeing any more raised hands. I'll give it a few more seconds in case anyone has any last minute questions. Otherwise, moving on to the Q&A box, I also don't see anything there. Okay. So then, we've come to the end of today's presentation. Thank you all for coming to the second quarter 2024 financial results conference. We will upload the recording of this presentation to our website shortly after this. Thank you everyone. Goodbye.