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Hafnia Limited (HAFN)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Dec 1, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Hafnia's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. We will be brought through today's presentation by Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov; CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; Soren Winther, VP, Commercial; and Thomas Andersen, EVP, Head of Investor Relations. They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation. [Operator Instructions] During this conference call, some statements may be considered forward-looking, reflecting management's current expectations. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Hafnia's control that could cause actual results, performance or plans to differ significantly from those expressed or implied. Additionally, this conference call does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov.

Mikael Opstun Skov

Analyst

Thank you, and hello, everyone. We appreciate you joining in Hafnia's third quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Mikael Skov, CEO of Hafnia. And with me today is our CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; our VP of Commercial, Soren Winther; and our EVP and Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen. Earlier today, we released our Q3 2025 results, which are now available on our website. During this call, we will walk you through our quarterly performance, discuss key market developments and share updates on our financial position. We will also present our sustainability initiatives before opening the call for questions. Let's move to the next slide. Slide #2. Before we proceed, I would like to go through our safe harbor statement. The information discussed on this call is based on information we have today, which may include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from these statements. Nothing presented on this call should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities. Thank you for your attention. With that, let's begin with a review of our results for the quarter. Next slide, Slide #4. The product tanker market started out this year on a softer note, but it strengthened significantly through the third quarter. Higher trading volumes and strong refinery margins drove this. Much of the growth came from increased export flows out of the Middle East and Asia with clean petroleum products on water continuing to rise throughout the quarter. This strong backdrop supported the spot market, and I'm pleased to share that Hafnia delivered another excellent quarter. For Q3, we achieved $150.5 million in adjusted EBITDA and a net profit of $91.5 million, our best quarter so far this year. As part of our fleet renewal strategy, we also sold four older…

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Thanks, Soren. If we move to next page, 22. We indeed had another strong quarter as market conditions strengthened, fueled by higher trading activity and firm refinery margins. For Q3, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $150.5 million and a net profit of $91.5 million, which is our best quarterly results of 2025 so far. Our Fee-based business in the pools remained steady, contributing $7.1 million in fee income. And we maintained strong profitability metrics with an annualized return on equity of 15.9% and a return on invested capital of 12.8%. Moving on to the operating summary. We continue to generate strong operating cash flows, supported by a boost balance sheet and further declining breakeven levels. For the quarter, TCE income stood at $247 million with an average TCE of $26,040 per day. A meaningful portion of our fleet was built in 2015 and 2016, leading to a relatively high number of drydockings. And this quarter's performance also reflected the impact of several vessels undergoing drydocking. We recorded approximately 740 off-hire days in Q3, which is about 230 days above our initial expectations, primarily due to drydock glass and two vessels undergoing special cargo tank recoating. Across the first three quarters of '25, we have drydocked 32 vessels and expect to complete another 14 in the fourth quarter. While we still have several vessels scheduled for drydocking in the coming quarters, we do expect off-hire days to decline and taper down to around 440 in the fourth quarter. This positions us well for stronger utilization and earnings momentum heading into 2016. And turning to the balance sheet. We made significant progress this quarter. Our net LTV ratio based on our 100% owned fleet improved from 24.1% at the end of Q2 to 20.5%, supported by strong operational cash flows. Across 2025,…

Mikael Opstun Skov

Analyst

Thank you for this. And let me now turn to Hafnia sustainability strategy and goals, and we are on Slide 27. As a global leader in the product tanker segment, we do recognize the critical role we play in shaping the maritime ecosystem. We hold ourselves to the highest operational and environmental standards with a clear commitment to creating a positive difference. Across the value chain, we are deepening collaboration with strategic partners, regulators and key international bodies to codevelop solutions to the challenges our industry faces. These efforts ensure that Hafnia remains firmly positioned at the forefront of the energy transition, not just adapting, but leading the way forward. Moving to Slide 28. Here, we showcased some of the strategic initiatives we've been working on to strengthen our competitive edge. Take Seascale Energy, for example, this joint venture creates powerful synergies with our existing operations and enables us to deliver reliable, scalable solutions across the maritime sector. In parallel, we're advancing our technological capabilities through our strategic investment in Complexio. Complexio leverages both structured and unstructured data to create a detailed operational landscape, enabling automation of recurring processes such as chartering, ship clearance, finance management and contract negotiation. These initiatives reinforce Hafnia's position at the forefront of innovation in the maritime sector, ensuring we remain agile, efficient and future-ready. Slide 29. Looking ahead, Hafnia remains well positioned for the remainder of the year. With winter approaching, seasonal demand is expected to support the oil market, driving higher earnings through increased tonnes-miles activity and strong operational dynamics. I'm encouraged by the underlying market strength and proud that we've delivered solid results while maintaining our 80% dividend payout ratio. We will continue to exercise disciplined financial management and pursue strategic opportunities that enhance our competitive position. Before concluding, I want to stress an important concern. As Ukrainian ceasefire discussions progress, policymakers and the shipping industry must ensure the vessels from the dark fleet often operating with poor safety standards are not allowed back into mainstream trade. Doing so would undermine regulatory trust and create serious risks to people and the environment. With that, this concludes our presentation. I'd now like to open the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Frode, I see you're having hand up? Can you please unmute yourself?

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

So the first question is on this coverage slide you had, I noticed you had booked 67% of the LR2 fleet in 2026. So maybe you can shed some color on that? Have you booked -- what type of contracts are you booked and the duration, I see the rate there, like $30,000 a day basically. Søren Winther: Hi, Frode, Soren here. Yes, that's correct that we, during Q3 and into Q4, have covered more of our LR2 fleet for three years. You're talking four ships, where three with 3-year deals and one is a 2-year deal, about the numbers you're talking about.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

Okay. That's good. I guess coming back to Mikael's point in his final remarks. I want to ask about this Russian, see the key export decline we've seen, right? So you showed it in the slides, exports are down, probably been good for U.S. more liftings, right? Have you also seen like an offsetting effect from, let's say, shadow fleet coming back, let's say, drifting back into the conventional fleet. What's your data showing?

Mikael Opstun Skov

Analyst

Maybe more on the DPP side than on the actual CPP side. So probably on this DPP, I'd say that the supply into South America has gone back to the conventional tonnage, adding a little bit more tonne-mile there, whereby on the DPP trading side, especially on Aframax', you have seen some more influx of not sanction tonnage, of course, but the grey fleet entering into an already busy Aframax market on the dirty trade.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst

For CPP, it's a positive result.

Mikael Opstun Skov

Analyst

Yes, you can say it certainly feels like a positive for now, and we don't seem to find a lot of competition from the dark fleet yet, at least.

Operator

Operator

Omar, I can see you have your hand up? Can you unmute yourself, please?

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Thanks for the update. I did have just maybe a couple of questions and perhaps maybe first, just on the -- do you mind revisiting that Red Sea slide? I thought that was quite interesting. You mentioned the opening would perhaps not be as significant to fleet supply as initially thought. And just want to get a sense of if you wouldn't mind just explaining a bit more how you got to those figures, especially that part about the 43 cross hemisphere regains. Søren Winther: Yes. Soren again, here. So the analysis we have done is based on historic data on a general note. So if you take pre-battle [indiscernible] closing volumes and anticipate that those volumes would come back the market if Suez reopened in the sense that Middle East will then be the more competitive supplier into Northwest Europe and Mediterranean again in the event of a reopening. So what you're looking at is that it's taking the volumes that you would regain out of Suez or trading by Suez again, and we have offset the full gains that we have had for trading via the Cape of Good Hope and added the volume to come back to normal averages of East to West volumes, which then boils down to a limited impact on the market. What you can see on that slide is what is that going to do to trade flows on a general note. Is that going to be a positive for the U.S. Gulf, which has been a big driver over Q3 for sure. And if you have more supply out of the Middle East, that's probably positive for the LR1s and LR2s, whereby there will be other trade flows out of the U.S. gold for the MRs and probably more tuned towards the South American region.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay. That's quite helpful. And maybe just touching on that point in terms of just transiting and what compels that you or maybe the industry do want to return. Obviously, I think a big part of it is perhaps insurance premiums. Have you seen any kind of shift or change in insurance costs, what's being quoted to transit in the region? Søren Winther: Not really yet, the big -- well, the big, I mean, at least the well-known owners on the clean side is not yet transiting. So there's not a lot of movement there. You have seen other parts of the lead, for instance, some Middle Eastern traders, that is sending their tonnage through the Red Sea. So I think you would see a mild increase in the volume that actually goes through the Red Sea today. But on an insurance and on a general willingness to try it out, not so much, to be honest.

Operator

Operator

So Clement, can you unmute yourself, please?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I wanted to start by asking about the exercise of purchase options you pursued on vessels under sale and lease back. Could you talk a bit about the effect you expect this to have on your all-in cash breakeven for the vessels involved?

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Hi, Clement. Good question. It's Perry here. I don't have the effect on the specific vessels. We purchased -- we had quite good and regular frequent purchase options on those leases. So as part of our refinancing, we took them out across the board with all the refinancings that we've done since the summer, that has improved our cash flow breakeven quite significantly. I think for next year, that will bring us somewhere below the $13,000 a day. But we don't have anything for on a per vessel basis. It's also less relevant.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Makes sense. The color is still helpful. And you've continued divesting the older end of the fleet in recent months. How are you thinking about potential fleet renewal growth at current pricing? And secondly, should we consider the acquisition of TORM shares, likes that kind of fleet expansion, or how do you view it? Søren Winther: Hi, it's Soren, again. You can say that our strategy over the past couple of years on the newbuild purchase side has always been linked to bigger projects, will cover somewhat forward. Perry -- and looking at newbuild prices now, that will probably be our strategy still. But -- well, yes, it's I guess, it all boils down to a better market than this, I think we are probably not in a situation now where we would look at a big newbuild program at current levels.

Thomas Andersen

Analyst

And I'm actually not seeing any more raise hands, actually, so Omar -- so Clement, if you can take your hands down if you finished, and then Omar, can you unmute yourself?

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, can you hear me?

Operator

Operator

Yes.

Mikael Opstun Skov

Analyst

Yes.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Just wanted a follow-up on just a net LTV for half year at 3Q, obviously, a very nice drop from 24% to 20%. Obviously, precise like quarter over quarter. It seems that you're pace to perhaps get below 20% at the end of the fourth quarter, which, I guess, presumably triggers you back into that 90% payout threshold. Do you forecast that happening, or do you take into account the pro forma acquisition of the TORM stake at that point?

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Omar, it's Perry. Good question. Net LTV at the end of Q3 is 20.5%. As we always do, we are consistent with our dividend policy and our dividend payout ratio. So of course, that would depend on where values are in the quarter. As we've also announced earlier in September that when we include -- once that deal closes, we include TORM stake at market value and purchase price, low of the both and then also including the debt. So that obviously will bring the net LTV all in all some -- probably somewhere in the middle of that range.

Operator

Operator

I don't see any more raised hands. So I'm actually going to move on to the chats and the Q&A. So we have a question in our chat, which I will direct to Perry, regarding whether we plan on purchasing further shares in TORM?

Perry Van Echtelt

Analyst

Yes, that's not so much to come down. We've mentioned also in the earnings release that there's one more condition outstanding for the close of the stake that we've announced for 40.45%, and can't really comment or add on questions or suggestion of further purchases.

Operator

Operator

Moving on to the next question. So we have someone asking that we mentioned in our detailed release the pool earnings for the week beginning 17th of November 2025. Is it only the week's earnings, or is it from the first of October to the 17th of November 2025?

Thomas Andersen

Analyst

Thank you for the question. That's for the week of -- starting November 17, so that week's earnings only.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Thomas. I'm just giving it a few more seconds to see if we receive anymore raise hands or any more questions in the Q&A or the chat. All right. Well, thank you, everyone. So today, we've come to the end of today's presentation. So thank you for attending Hafnia's third quarter to 2025 financial results conference call. You can find more information available on our website at www.hafnia.com. Thank you, everyone.