Welcome to Hayward Holdings Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Adam, and I will be your operator today [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Maczka, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Maczka, you may begin.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We issued our third quarter 2022 earnings press release this morning which has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our Web site at investor.hayward.com. There, you can also find an earnings slide presentation that we will reference during this call. I'm joined today by Kevin Holleran, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eifion Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include remarks about future expectations, anticipation, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, plans and prospects. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated or implied by such statements. Such risks and other factors are set forth in the company's earnings release posted on the Web site and in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements. Additionally, during today's call, the company will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of net income calculated under US GAAP to adjusted EBITDA, as well as reconciliations for other non-GAAP measures discussed on this call can be found in our earnings release and the appendix to the slide presentation. I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin Holleran.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to welcome all of you to Hayward's third quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to say that our thoughts are with everyone that was impacted by natural disasters in the Southeastern United States and Australia, and those in Europe impacted by the ongoing war in Ukraine. We are doing what we can to assist during this extremely difficult time. I'll start on Slide 4 of our earnings presentation with today's key messages. First, our third quarter performance was in line with our expectations. During the quarter, we continue to leverage our competitive advantages, increase market share and capitalize on the sustainable secular trends in our industry. I am pleased to see our primary channel partners report continued growth and channel sell through for Hayward products in our core US market. However, consistent with the expectations we communicated a quarter ago, we saw a meaningful divergence between channel sell-through and our net sales into the channel as our partners reduce the level of inventory on hand in response to normalized lead times and safety stock requirements. We are making significant progress on this recalibration necessary to support 2023 with a normalized level and mix of product in the channel. Second, we're winning in the marketplace. We continue to see positive adoption of our innovative best in class products, and we are actively converting target accounts to Hayward loyalty programs. I am encouraged to see this result in further market share gains during the third quarter. Third, we are taking proactive steps to realign our cost structure to current conditions while prioritizing our strategic growth investments and productivity initiatives. We expect these actions to result in substantial variable cost savings and a structural SG&A reduction of approximately 10% on an…

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. I'll start on Slide 9. All comparisons will be made on a year-over-year basis. Net sales for the third quarter decreased 30% to $245.3 million. This decrease was in line with our expectations and primarily driven by a 44% reduction in volume and 1% unfavorable foreign exchange impact, partially offset by 12% price realization and a 3% contribution from acquisitions. The net price realization reflected the full cumulative impact of our previously announced price increases to mitigate the escalating inflationary cost pressures. The volume decline during the quarter was primarily driven by distribution channel destocking, which we anticipated stepping into the quarter. Our lead times have now normalized that most supply chain constraints have eased outside of some specific electronic based material shortages. This improvement gives us the confidence to communicate normalized lead times to the channel and relieve their need to hold excess safety stock. It's important to understand in our primary US market, we have positive channel sell through and the volume reductions we experienced compared to last year are due entirely to channel inventory movements. In the comparable quarter, the channel pulled in inventory, whereas this quarter, as Kevin mentioned, the channel destocked approximately $80 million. In addition, global uncertainty and geopolitical events continue to weigh on certain European markets. Our other markets in the Rest of World segment performed well as those markets continue to open up post pandemic. Despite this unfavorable channel dynamic, we continue to experience good adoption of new products, particularly controls, sanitization, energy efficient variable speed pumps and lighting. Gross profit in the third quarter was $107.8 million. Gross profit margin declined 239 basis points to 43.9% as continued strong price realization was offset by inflation and lower operating leverage on reduced volumes. Our pricing initiatives…

Thanks, Eifion. I'll pick back up on Slide 14 and address the main trends supporting our outlook. We remain very positive about the long term health of the pool industry, particularly the strength of the aftermarket. It continues to grow every year with the addition of new pools to the installed base and provides a rich upgrade and remodel opportunity as this space continues to age and adopt new technologies. The aftermarket has proven to be resilient across economic cycles. We firmly believe there has been a significant increase in the appreciation for the backyard as a consequence of numerous favorable secular trends. We also remain very encouraged by the execution of our teams which continued to deliver solid market share gains and price realization, while implementing our cost reduction programs. With that said, the current operating environment is increasingly uncertain, especially in Europe. Inflation remains persistent and we are working through the reset of channel inventories. As a result, for the full year 2022, the company now anticipates a decrease in consolidated net sales of approximately 6% and adjusted EBITDA of $365 million to $370 million. I am confident in our ability to successfully execute in this dynamic environment and remain very positive about the long term growth outlook. Turning now to Slide 15. Before we close, let me reiterate the key takeaways from today's presentation. Our third quarter results were consistent with our expectations. We continue to win in the marketplace as we introduce new products, convert target accounts to Hayward and increase our market share. We are controlling what we can control, optimizing our manufacturing base and taking proactive steps to realign our cost structure to current conditions while positioning for future growth. I have every confidence that these efforts will drive compelling financial results and shareholder value creation. With that, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question today comes from Jeff Hammond at KeyCorp.

So just I guess on these SG&A cuts, maybe just frame how you're starting to think about demand destruction or some of the consumer weakness lingering into 2023?

I think let me just start off with the cost actions and turn it to Kevin to talk about the latter part of your question. We began the cost actions, Jeff, in Q3 with initial actions taken across primarily our manufacturing base. Later on in the quarter, we started to address our SG&A through specific cost actions there that will start to primarily affect Q4 and then have a full effect in 2023. We have announced as of today, further actions, both across our manufacturing cost base and across our SG&A rate. We're focused really on rightsizing our factories to the current production levels that we see. And as we mentioned in our prepared remarks and in the release, reduced about 10% of our SG&A base, which is approximately $25 million to $30 million. We'll continue to update you as we go forward and give you a fulsome update as we step into 2023. I mean at the end of the day, these actions there are to support and protect as we've become accustomed mid to high 40s gross margin and protect our adjusted EBITDA in the high 20s.

As for the demand environment, Jeff, we're seeing still high single digit retail pull through out of the channel, that's obviously coming off some incredibly high comps from last year. We're really encouraged that that data indicates a continued share gain into the retail marketplace, which has been really our top level priority for the last several years running. There's been quite a bit of discussion during this earnings season around new construction. We agree that based upon permit data, that that likely will be softer when the year closes out 2022. I guess the positive part offset there on the new construction side is it's really impacted the entry level and there's still net higher values coming across the pad. But again, what's really driving this industry is the aftermarket. And the break fix, repair and replace some of the technology upgrading is still very optimistic. And the data shows that there's still great retail pull through out into the marketplace. So I'll just close. Obviously, there's been a lot of pricing. We spoke about it in our prepared remarks. The market is accepting those prices. There's been a lot of it put into the marketplace because of inflationary headwinds, and we expect that to continue to hold through the latter half of this year and into 2023.

So just on the kind of implied fourth quarter guide, decrementals, I thought were quite good in the third quarter. It seems like you take a pretty big step down into the fourth quarter. Any kind of moving pieces there? And then just what are the expectations around any early buy, if any, in the fourth quarter guide?

I'll lead off and again let Kevin chime in on the latter of volume. I mean it's pretty clear based upon the full year guidance that we've given. Sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be in the range of high 250s to low 260s pool, call that midpoint 260. We expect EBITDA to be between $51 million to $56 million. As you point out, structurally, the margins around 21% at the midpoint adjusted EBITDA margin. Gross margins will be impacted in the fourth quarter by lower absorption. We're really focusing, Jeff, in the fourth quarter on the destocking on our balance sheet. In addition, obviously, to continue to work with the channel on their destock. So production in the fourth quarter will be limited. We are continuing to rightsize the manufacturing cost base, but production won't be down sequentially in Q4. We will have, as we talked about, continued inflation. Our acquisition cost in Q3 was higher than expected. It did necessitate us to put in another price increase. That price increase will be effective in January of '23. So we'll still have a bit of pinch in inflation also in Q4.

As for early buy, Jeff, we did run a program this year. I would say as it's closed out here in the month of October, it's a more normalized early by kind of back to pre-pandemic expectations. Admittedly, we put a slightly lower expectation on it given the channel stock position, but we hit that expectation, which I find encouraging and a great sign that the channel remains confident in that end market demand and the expectation that we're going to get inventories down to the correct level, correct days on hand by year end. So we're working with the channel on getting that shift. As we continue to deplete, we also want to make sure that the inventory is in the right position and we got the right mix as the season kicks off into 2023.

The next question comes from Ryan Merkel of William Blair.

So picking up on that last comment you made, Kevin, it sounds like you think the channel destock is going to be done by the end of '22. And then can you update us on how much you're assuming for the total destock now? I think the prior estimate was $150 million?

So I would say on the -- what we discussed on last quarter, I'd say it's playing out as expected. We had nice destock hit expectation through Q3, more work to be done in Q4. But with the assumption of current demand trends continue, we think that we will largely be done and have inventory in the right balance as we turn the year into 2023. I would say, as you compare year-over-year, there was some inventory build, as I said in my prepared remarks in 2021. And this year, we saw a nice reversal of that as our share continued to grow into the marketplace. So where there was some inventory build in Q3 last year, we've actually depleted it by that $80 million or so that we had in the prepared remarks. So in terms of overall, we kind of put a range of about $120 million to $150 million on it. And like I said, as of now based upon retail pull through and our expected Q4 shift back into the channel, we would say that we expect to be largely done and reset and balanced coming out of Q4.

And then on pricing, how much will price contribute in 2023, just given the recent increase you talked about? And I think there'll be some carryover. That would be helpful.

There will be some carryover. I'll ask Eifion to give some more detail. There is carryover from an announcement, call it, in the midyear mark when it took effect. And then, of course, this most recent announcement, here in Q4, which will start to impact Q1 shipments. So we're probably going to get in a range now until we come in with our 2023 or formal guidance.

Obviously, we're not giving definitive guidance on price carry at this point. But what I would say is, as I mentioned earlier, we have now recently announced a 4% to 5% price increase, which is consequential to the inflation we saw coming through in Q3. That will take effect in January. So we’ll get a full year's benefit of that 4% to 5%. And then additionally, as you know, we did announce this past year in ‘22 a midyear price increase of approximately 4% to 5% as well. So we can take a half year of that and layer that on. So somewhere in the 7% range will be carried into next year.

The next question comes from Brian Lee at Goldman Sachs.

This is Miguel on for Brian. My first one was just maybe going back on the updated revenue growth guidance. I guess maybe could you just decompose a bit the change in the guidance. Was that all related to channel inventory, or maybe could you talk through how much of that was perhaps lower expectations on volumes maybe in Europe versus other regions? And then I'm assuming price remained a headwind -- is going to remain a headwind and an offset to those things. But just wondering if you could just maybe give more color on the change of the guidance versus prior.

So let me just talk about sales. Last time we talked around $200 million at the midpoint from original guidance to our revised guidance coming out of Q2. Now we expect it to be around $230 million to $240 million, would be the takedown from our original guidance stepping into '22. And that really is centric around three central themes. One, the channel correction is, as Kevin mentioned, we said $120 million to $150 million. We're kind of trending up in about midrange right now, $130 million to $135 million is the channel correction. We think were done at the end of the year. We got -- we identified it earlier. We got acted through earlier. So we think we're in a good position now to go through that channel correction by the end of '22. In terms of Europe and rest of the world, I think you're aware that market remains, let's say, complicated. Originally, we had taken down our view on Europe and Rest of the World by $60 million. I think we're now at $70 million in our guidance. And then in terms of the seasonal markets, they've got a slow start. So this is the upper Midwest, the Northeastern Canada, they had a slower start this year. We've seen no improvement throughout the summer and those are markets that were essentially closed out for the season, and we expect better things next year. But in terms of this year, the seasonal market decrement is around $55 million to our previous expectations coming out of Q2 of only $40 million debt. So really, it's centric around slightly higher channel correction, a little bit of deterioration in Europe and rest of the world, including the FX consequence and recognition that the seasonal markets now have had a soft '22 period.

You also mentioned pricing, I believe, at the end of the question there, Miguel. We would -- I think you said headwind, we actually see pricing as a benefit tailwind kind of working through the next several periods.

I meant tailwind I had that reversed when I said it. But yes, great I appreciate all that. I appreciate all that additional color. Second question, and I'll pass it on. Maybe just on costs in general, looking at the spot prices on sort of freight and metal, and all those have come down and then we're hearing from others and you've noted in your prepared remarks that there might still be some bit of challenges around the electronics. But can you just maybe talk about this data of the state in terms of supply chain in general? And then specifically, one, how we should think about the timing of when those prices in the market start to translate and potentially more upside on margins? And then number two, maybe on the supply constraints, what's gotten easier and what's still a bit more challenging?

Let me come at it in reverse order. I think it sets the response up correctly here. So in terms of sourcing, we have seen a nice improvement in sourcing. When I look at our key main commodity raw materials and other component items, we really are now only constrained from a sourcing perspective in electronics, namely PCBA components and microprocessors. We continue to work with our suppliers to get those materials. But that remains the only, let's call it, red traffic light on our commodity dashboard. Everything else from a supply quantity perspective has improved. In terms of costs, cost still remain elevated in our purchase costs. You have to recognize that we operate on a lag. So the raw materials that we purchased in any given queue on a three month lag and obviously then any cost of sales that we sell in the quarter are really based upon prior quarter's acquisition. So we can be dealing with a lag of anywhere between three to six months from the market price of a commodity through that being recognized in our cost of sales. And so when you look at the year to date inflation in commodities, we still see resins elevated in our purchase price. We have seen some abatement in steel costs. We've got some specialist metals, which still are high and copper based upon some contractual hedging we did is higher. But we do expect that these will start to cool off here, and possibly now start to provide a tailwind into next year. To me, it's a little bit too or to call definitively where we'll be in terms of inflation in 2023, and we've reacted accordingly on our purchase cost with a further price increase.

The next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

Eifion, I think this one for you. How long do you think it will take to work down inventories to the right level? And I'm just thinking about how much within your plan within the margin guide, you've got for 4Q, what sort of inventory benefit do you expect to achieve? And kind of I guess, sort of adjacent to that question is normally, you burn cash flow in 4Q? I'm assuming this time is different, but if you can just maybe talk about cash flow as well.

In terms of inventory, we say -- just want to, Nigel, you talked about Hayward balance sheet here?

Exactly, yes.

So inventory peaks in Q2. It's now beginning to come down modestly, but it will be lower at the end of the year. As I mentioned, we are reducing production to allow us to get through that to finished good inventory more quickly, and we expect that to continue actually into 2023. We will generate cash from a reduction in inventory in the fourth quarter. But as you know, the fourth quarter also has some early buy sales in which are on extended terms. So I don't expect the quarter from a net working capital position to be a material cash flow period, but we will get some from inventory reductions. When you think about the days on hand, we have somewhere at the end of Q3, around about four and half months of inventory of raw materials and about three and half months of finished goods, that's about six weeks higher than normal. By the end of the year, we expect that only be about two to three weeks higher than normal. And provided we see continued supply normalization from our raw material suppliers then we will and continue to relieve our own balance sheets and destock that strategic inventory that everybody has taken. We're aiming now to get our cash conversion cycles back in the 90 to 100 days, which takes our raw material and finished goods down to about three and two months, respectively.

My follow-on question is really just maybe just a slightly crisper view on sort of how we view the outlook here. So 6% of the kind of the run rate replacement demand remains -- probably remains very solid even in a consumer recession. 20% new builds will almost seem to be down, pick a number. What about the other 20%, the remodel? How do we view that going into '23?

I think that's a potential, I think it's a potential offset on the construction side. As you know, Nigel, our dealers, builders also do the remodeling. We know that new construction has been prioritized for the last two to three years. Average age continues to push to the right, approaching 25 years. So as we've been talking about for a few quarters, we think that that could be an opportunity to help offset some of the new construction. So you're looking at it the way we are as we're looking into 2023, what's our expectation around new and remodel which, frankly, we view remodel as part of the aftermarket. That 80% of our business that really is serving the installed base out there with the pricing expectations. So those are all the factors that we're weighing here through the fourth quarter and will ultimately lead to our guidance when we talk again in first quarter.

The next question comes from Shaun Calnan of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

We had a couple on pricing, first with the more normalized supply chain, some easing in commodity prices and a balanced channel inventory heading into 2023. Are you guys expecting any more price competition and promotional activity next year? And then the second one is, I believe you guys had a 4% surcharge in place the last couple of months. Is that still in place? And do you expect to pull that back with some relief on freight and commodity inflation?

So I'll answer the second part. So the 4% surcharge there has become institutionalized in our pricing structures. And so that remains now in the price list and the go forward expectation is there will be no giveback in terms of that given where we've seen structural freight costs rest that over the last four months here.

As for the promotion, the last two years, the industry really hasn't had to promote product given the demand profile. What I would expect into 2023 is maybe is a return to normalcy with sort of standard levels of sales promotion activity that has long existed in the industry. So we don't think it's incremental to historical trends, Sean, but we would expect it to maybe be a bit of a step up from the fact that there was very little over the last, call it, two years or so.

Just to clarify, the 4% to 5% increase. Is that just you guys turning the surcharge into a permanent price increase or is that in addition? .

That's in addition, essentially, the surcharge became institutionalized over Q3, and the most recent announcement is a further price increase. As I mentioned, the freight costs in the business there have normalized out. We've seen some reduction in container costs coming out of Asia, but the reality is inland transportation, LTL/FTL, freight costs, consequential to gas costs, diesel costs are now structurally higher than they were 18 months ago.

And then I think you mentioned that the sell through grew high single digits year-over-year. Do you have a breakout of how much of that growth was price versus volume?

Can you just repeat the question again?

On the high single-digit sell-through, what was the factors between price and other?

So we don't know exactly the channel price position year-over-year. It probably includes, let's say, negative low single digit volume offset by mid to high single digit pricing…

Maybe a little bit of a mix in there, Sean. But the big component, Sean, would be volume probably off some single digit, low single digit percentage considerable price and then mix, they have a little bit positive contribution.

The next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

If you could just talk a little bit about some of the categories here. If I think about that sell through in the third quarter, it sounds like volumes were down a little bit. But any difference between what you're trying to actively destock in terms of categories or maybe what the channel is trying to destock versus the categories that have been more resilient or kind of drove some of that sell through performance.

I guess what I would say there, Josh, is where the channel has increased inventory, I think we've done particular categories that are more highly inventory. I think we've made nice progress on getting some of that out. There's still some products out there as we've been talking now for several quarters. There are some product categories that the industry, ourselves included, have just not been able to really get back to full supply of, namely products that require some of the electronic componentry as Eifion said, that's still in shorter supply. So I think the channel did a nice job of addressing some of the heaters, but we're still in short supply, I would say, net-net across some of the variable speed pumps, some of the automation and controls.

And then I know we've kind of approached this inventory question in many different ways, and maybe I just want to be crystal clear because I'm not that smart. On this $130 million, $135 million of kind of total destock that you're targeting here, does that include Hayward inventory, or is that all channel facing? And I guess maybe if it is, just channel facing, what's kind of the total number that you would put on that?

Josh, just to be clear, you're talking about Hayward products in the channel, that is the $135 million that we're referencing. So we expect channel -- our distributors’ Hayward inventory to be reduced $135 million over the second half of this year with substantial progress on that in Q3.

Then you also have your own balance sheet inventory, you're trying to work down is -- what number should we think about for that?

So right now, when you look at the end of September, let's call it, rounded up $315 million on the balance sheet, we, by the end of mid to third quarter next year, expect that to be down to around about $220 million to $225 million. And again, that's returning our days on hand or months on hand for raw materials to about 90 days or three months and finished goods down to 60 days or two months. Again, preface [Technical Difficulty] and the assumptions that no further supply chain disruptions consequential to any macro events next year.

And then if I could just sneak in one more in. Any comments that you would make on, I guess, for lack of a better term, industry backlog, what your dealers know about and have queued up for next year? I would imagine that with these longer lead times between remodel and new pools that they're kind of booked out a little bit farther than usual. Is that starting to normalize? Is it still stretching out pretty far, any cancellations? Mostly anecdotal, I know because it's not really the way the industry works, but anything you could share would be helpful.

I would say we're hearing very little negligible cancellation. So I don't think that's a contributor, Josh. I would say that the conversations we have with our dealers and our dealer council, it feels like it's returning to a more normal profile. We did talk about the permitting on the new construction, but frankly, new construction gets too much attention, this industry is driven by the aftermarket. So that remodel and that upgrade and that break fix is really what's driving the future outlook more than anything. I would say, as the inventory has been -- the OEMs have done a nice job being able to fulfill and solve the backlog, inventories in the channel. And I think the availability is in a much better position in terms of their books, new permits, new construction, we're calling that to most likely be down this year, and then we'll take a harder look at 2023. But net-net, I think all that kind of adds up to it's returning to more of a normal state as we finish 2022 and prepare for the new '23 season.

The next question comes from Michael Halloran from Baird.

Just one for me. When you look at the margins, fourth quarter, obviously, low 20s, I think, is kind of the implied range. How should I think about what the normalized margin levels look like? Obviously, there's some artificial downside in the quarter given what's happening on the inventory side, given some of the inflationary things that you're talking about, plus you’re implementing some cost containment programs. But as we look to next year, what's the right run rate should we be thinking about when we try to adjust for a lot of those pieces?

As we mentioned, Q4 is going to be impacted by some under absorption. As to quantify that, it's around 175 to 200 bps. We think about the pricing initiatives that won't be in effect until January that will contribute another couple of 100 bps, possibly up to 250 bps. And so the aggregate of those to start to move the gross margin back into the high 40s. We've instituted the cost actions, which will eliminate 10% of our SG&A costs, some tough actions in there that we've got to get through to rightsize that cost base. But once completed that will allow the business to return our adjusted EBITDA margins back into the high 20s.

As we have no further questions, I'll hand back to Kevin Holleran for concluding remarks.

Thank you, Adam. In closing, I'd like to thank everyone for their interest in Hayward. Our business is very well positioned to navigate the near term challenges and deliver growth for all stakeholders in the years ahead. This would not be possible without the hard work, dedication and resilience of our employees and partners around the world. Please contact our team if you have any follow up questions, and we look forward to talking to you again on the fourth quarter earnings call. Thank you, Adam. You may now end the call.

Thank you. This does indeed conclude today's call. Thank you all very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.